NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 8
Week 7, looking back: of course, a week after calling the Cowboys sneaky against the Panthers — and watching them lose — they show up with a pick-six against chalky Jayden Daniels and double up the Commanders. The frustrating part? As a full game stack, it still didn’t do quite enough to get us across the cash line.
Our CeeDee Lamb lineups did well. Our Quinshon Judkins lineups did well. We were on a lot of the right plays and avoided plenty of the bad chalk. The one piece of chalk we faded that did hit was Rashee Rice. He did exactly what we thought he’d do — big splash plays early, then coasted the rest of the way. But he still got there with a 4x return by halftime. He was good chalk, and we’ll probably never see him that cheap again.
The reasoning was sound, though — process over results. We saw a lot of other chalk fail, and those were the fades that gave us the leverage we wanted. Week 8 looks like another spot where ownership will condense quickly, and we’ll need to decide early where we’re leaning into chalk versus where we’re taking our stands.
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Jets 19.00, Bengals 25.50
Ted’s Preview:
The Jets are being coy about who their starting quarterback will be this week, but it’s very hard to imagine it will be Justin Fields after owner Woody Johnson’s incredibly negative comments on the team’s QB play so far. Assuming he gets through his knee injury, it will likely be Tyrod Taylor under center for New York. Meanwhile, the Bengals have shown the upside of switching quarterbacks, as their offense looks infinitely better with Joe Flacco now at the controls.
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor is still a relatively mobile quarterback, but he’s no longer a true dual-threat option at 36 years old. He’ll also be without any difference-making (or even above-average) pass-catchers, as Garrett Wilson has already been ruled out. Even against the Bengals’ terrible defense, Taylor is just a backend QB2. Joe Flacco makes even Tyrod look young, checking in at 40 years old. He looked his age to start the season in Cleveland, but he has had one solid and one excellent fantasy outing since joining the Bengals. Still, he’s just a QB2 this week — this matchup is mediocre, and he brings zero rushing upside.
Running Backs
Breece Hall is questionable with a knee injury but reportedly on track to play this week. His workload on the ground has been excellent ever since Braelon Allen went on IR, and the Bengals are by far the softest fantasy matchup for running backs. That makes him an RB1, and the only reason he isn’t a truly elite option is that this offense still has systemic risk of a complete collapse. Given the soft matchup and lack of available options this week, Isaiah Davis is also worth mentioning. He has a decent pass-catching role in this offense, but that’s about it — he’s a desperation play. For the Bengals, Chase Brown has been ceding more work to Samaje Perine in recent weeks. But he’s still the RB1 for a matchup in which Cincinnati is solidly favored, making him a solid RB2. Like Davis, Perine is more of a desperation option.
Wide Receivers
With Garrett Wilson sidelined, the Jets’ top receivers in Week 7 (in terms of routes) were Arian Smith and Josh Reynolds. Reynolds also led the team with nine targets, but he caught only three for 29 scoreless yards. Because this is a very soft matchup and there are so many byes, you can consider the former Ram as a flex play, while Smith is another pure desperation option. I’ve also seen Allen Lazard and Tyler Johnson mentioned, but they posted route participation rates of just 52% and 25%, respectively, last week — they’re not playable. For Cincinnati, Ja’Marr Chase is back as an undisputed WR1, if not the WR1. Tee Higgins also benefits from Flacco taking over; he’s a viable WR2. I can’t recommend playing Andrei Iosivas.
Tight Ends
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Bengals’ defense is a dream matchup for tight ends, but it’s still hard to trust Mason Taylor given how bad New York’s offense has been. The rookie’s potential usage keeps him in the TE1 conversation, but he’s probably more of a high-end TE2 in reality. With Mike Gesicki on IR and Tanner Hudson out with a concussion, Noah Fant saw legitimately solid usage last week. However, Hudson is on track to return this week — when Gesicki first went down in Week 6, he ran only four fewer routes than Fant. Fant is just a desperation TE2.
DFS Thoughts:
This one looks pretty ugly. Hard to believe we’re saying it, but we’re actually picking the Bengals to win a game. If they could go toe-to-toe with the Steelers — who aren’t exactly world-beaters — and hang 33 points on them, they can certainly do the same against this Jets team.
Joe Flacco should have to throw a ton again. Even if Cincinnati gets out to a lead, they’ll probably keep leaning on Flacco-to-Chase as much as possible. You can absolutely play that combo, but I’m betting that the Jets won’t keep up enough to make this a true shootout like last week’s Steelers game.
I’m not really interested in anyone on the Jets’ side. They’re too banged up and too dysfunctional right now for DFS. You could take a dart on Chase Brown or one of the Jets’ RBs if you’re desperate for a salary saver, but I think there’s better leverage elsewhere.
My hope is that the public goes right back to Flacco and Chase after their big Thursday night game — giving us a chance to fade the ownership and find leverage on a quieter game environment.
Pick’em Winner: Bengals
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bears 21.50, Ravens 28.00
Ted’s Preview:
Although he’s technically listed as questionable, all signs indicate that Lamar Jackson will be back this week … and just in time, as the Ravens are 1-5 and dead last in the AFC North. The Bears are doing much better on the record front at 4-2, but the jury is still out on whether Ben Johnson has “fixed” Caleb Williams.
Quarterbacks
Speaking of Caleb Williams, he is coming off an absolute dud but still averaging a solid 18.3 points per game this season. He’s a borderline QB1 against Baltimore’s defense, which is getting healthier but still not 100%. Lamar Jackson is an elite, must-start fantasy option whenever he’s available.
Running Backs
Although he may not have fixed Caleb, Johnson has the Bears’ rushing offense firing on all cylinders. D’Andre Swift is a high-end RB2, if not a borderline RB1. And rookie Kyle Monangai has also seen his role grow in recent weeks, making him a valid RB3/flex play against a Ravens defense that ranks second in half-PPR points allowed to RBs. Things haven’t been pretty for Derrick Henry so far this season, but the return of Lamar should open things up against a beatable Chicago run defense — he is a RB1, albeit a high-variance one. Lamar’s return should also allow Justice Hill to return to his usual role as a deep RB3 or flex option in PPR formats.
Wide Receivers
The results haven’t been there in the last couple of weeks, but Rome Odunze‘s season-long numbers are still excellent. He is a borderline WR1; the Ravens’ defense has allowed the fourth-most points per game to opposing receivers. With that in mind, DJ Moore is a solid WR3 despite clearly being Chicago’s WR2 at this point. After them, Olamide Zaccheaus is still clearly more involved in this offense than Luther Burden … but you really don’t want to play either of them. Like the rest of Baltimore’s players, Zay Flowers should benefit immensely from the return of the two-time MVP; he’s a borderline WR1. Rashod Bateman has consistently served as the Ravens’ WR2, making him a viable flex option. Lamar’s return makes DeAndre Hopkins also relevant, although he’s just a TD-dependent dart-throw.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet is out this week, opening up the door for first-round rookie Colston Loveland to finally play an expanded role. He comes with upside, but is clearly a TE2 at best at this point. It’s hard to know what to do with the Ravens’ TEs. Both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely saw expanded usage last week, as Baltimore dramatically increased the rate at which they had two TEs on the field. But there’s no guarantee that that will continue now that Jackson has returned. Until proven otherwise, Andrews is just a borderline TE1 or high-end TE2, while Likely is barely fantasy relevant.
DFS Thoughts:
We’ve had a lot of weeks this year where I’ve liked enough value options that our lineups could go in any direction we want with plenty of salary. This is shaping up, as I look at this game, to be a week where I’m going to struggle to get all the high-priced players in that I want.
As I look at this game, I’m probably locking Derrick Henry into every lineup this week. And if I’m doing that, the Ravens’ defense has been so bad that I almost have to go back with somebody from the Bears, like Rome Odunze. The game also sets up well for Zay Flowers, so you could go with a full game stack, go Flowers and Henry on the Ravens’ side, and go Caleb Williams and Odunze on the other side. You could go to Lamar Jackson, coming back, stacking him up with Flowers. You could go to Colston Loveland on the Bears, if Kmet is out.
I’m not going to go a full on over-stack here. I might go to three or four players, again Flowers, Derrick Henry, with Henry being my priority, and Odunze on the other side. No matter which way I go, I’ll definitely pair Henry and Odunze to get that correlation. And I’ll see how pricing looks across the rest of the games and the rest of the lineups to see what other high-priced players I could fit that I’ve liked so far.
Pick’em Winner: Ravens
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Dolphins 18.50, Falcons 26.00
Ted’s Preview:
For what feels like the third time already this season, the Dolphins appear to be on the brink of a full-on implosion. Mike McDaniel and Co. have bounced back from ugly losses to provide at least decent offensive statistics before, but they do draw a tough matchup this week with an excellent Atlanta defense. Atlanta’s offense is shakier, but they should have a chance to get right against the Dolphins’ defense, arguably the worst in the league.
Quarterbacks
Coming off back-to-back three-interception games, Tua Tagovailoa is fighting to be a borderline QB2 … which is impressively bad on a week with only 26 starting QBs. Michael Penix Jr. is much more solidly in the QB2 range, especially with this soft matchup. But he’s quietly played fairly poorly this season and is definitely not in QB1 consideration.
Running Backs
Even as the entire Dolphins organization collapses around him, De’Von Achane continues to provide RB1 numbers thanks to absolutely elite receiving usage. Don’t overthink it, he’s a must-start. However, he’s still a tier (if not a couple tiers) below Bijan Robinson, who should absolutely eat against Miami’s league-worst run defense. The Dolphins lead the league with over 128 rushing yards per game allowed to opposing backs, a number so high that Tyler Allgeier projects as a flex option despite being clearly behind Bijan in the pecking order.
Wide Receivers
The vibes are bad, and so is the matchup. But Jaylen Waddle has talent, and his usage is excellent — he’s a WR2. Malik Washington saw his role massively expanded last week, as he led the team with a 78% route participation rate. But he’s still just a flex option. Drake London’s usage has been substantially worse with Darnell Mooney active than without him, but he’s still a solid WR1. Mooney himself, meanwhile, has seen decent usage and is a boom/bust WR3.
Tight Ends
With Darren Waller on IR, the Dolphins are back to being a team without a fantasy-relevant tight end, with all due respect to Julian Hill and Tanner Conner. Kyle Pitts, meanwhile, seems to have settled into a stable role that makes him a weekly backend TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
This game actually sets up a little better for Atlanta, playing at home. We’ve seen running backs absolutely crush the Dolphins, and this feels like another Bijan Robinson spot. You can definitely lock him in — just keep in mind that Tyler Allgeier continues to stay involved enough to limit Bijan’s absolute ceiling.
Given that, we could also go to the other side and save some salary by betting on De’Von Achane (especially on DraftKings) His receiving volume could make him game-script proof.
It’s even viable to play both Bijan and Achane together, given their differing usage — Bijan handling traditional lead-back work in positive scripts, and Achane catching passes if Miami plays from behind. I’ll look more closely at ownership projections before making any final calls, but for now, I’m staying away from both passing games here. Too much uncertainty, not enough ceiling.
Pick’em Winner: Falcons
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Browns 16.75, Patriots 23.75
Ted’s Preview:
They demolished the aforementioned flailing Dolphins last week on the back of Quinshon Judkins and their elite defense, but the Browns are still one of the league’s worst teams. Things couldn’t be more different in New England, where the Patriots are 5-2 and seem to have found a new franchise QB in Drake Maye.
Quarterbacks
Dillon Gabriel hasn’t been put in a situation to succeed, but he’s also looked exactly how you’d expect a third-round rookie in a terrible situation to look. He’s only playable in 2-QB leagues where you have no other option. Drake Maye is playing well enough that he is a clear QB1 despite this tough matchup.
Running Backs
I’m a little worried about Quinshon Judkins this week — the Browns are obviously huge underdogs, and he has essentially zero role in the passing game. But his ground volume and efficiency are both borderline elite, making him still a high-end RB2. Jerome Ford is serving as Cleveland’s receiving back, but his overall level of involvement makes him just a desperation play. On the one hand, Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots’ clear RB1, and they are big favorites. On the other hand, the Browns’ defense has stymied opposing RBs all season, while the Patriots’ running game has been inefficient at the best of times. Put it together, and Stevenson is a backend RB2 who will likely need to score to provide a solid outing. I have no interest in playing TreVeyon Henderson until his role actually starts to trend in the right direction.
Wide Receivers
As the WR1 on a team that will be playing from behind, Jerry Jeudy still projects like a WR3 … but that’s been true every week, and he’s averaging just 5.2 half-PPR points with zero double-digit outings. Play him at your own risk. Isaiah Bond is even riskier as a pure desperation flex play. Stefon Diggs has been providing solid results in recent weeks despite terrible route participation rates, thanks to elite per-route numbers. In this bad matchup, I view him as more of a WR3 than a solid WR2. Kayshon Boutte doesn’t see much volume but is always a threat to catch a deep TD — he is a boom/bust flex option.
Tight Ends
David Njoku is questionable with a knee injury. If he’s out, Harold Fannin is a viable backend TE1. If he’s in, I’m avoiding both — committee tight ends on a terrible offense is not a recipe for fantasy success. With more competition for targets than in previous years, Hunter Henry has settled in as a high-end TE2; in this bye-heavy week, he might even be a borderline TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
This is a game with two good defenses. In the past, we’ve talked about games between two defenses, two good rushing defenses, potentially leading to passing game shootouts. That’s certainly a possibility here, but it’s not what is most likely, in my opinion. I think this will be a low to mid-scoring game with the Patriots winning. I don’t have enough interest in this game because of that reason to play anybody, but I wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to tell the story that the passing games do have success, and you started with something like a Dillon Gabriel, Harold Fannin, or you went to a Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, even adding TreVeyon Henderson in there, expecting them to use him in the passing game to open things up rather than running Rhamondre against a tough Cleveland defense.
I don’t think I want to play either defense alone in this game. I think both teams will be passing, but I don’t think there will be enough play volume to really make the defenses pay off alone. And I don’t think I want to play one side or the other with an RB and defensive stack, so I’ll probably stay away from this game completely this week.
Pick’em Winner: Patriots
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Giants 18.00, Eagles 25.50
Ted’s Preview:
These two teams met just two weeks ago, and the Giants pulled off a shocking 34-17 upset. Clearly, Vegas still backs the reigning Super Bowl champs to take care of business at home in the rematch. But with Jaxson Dart under center, this New York team is definitely more exciting than it has been in recent years.
Quarterbacks
Jaxson Dart has averaged an excellent 22.6 points in his four starts, largely thanks to racking up points with his legs. As much as I want to believe, it’s hard for this level of fantasy success to be sustainable with mediocre passing production. He’s a borderline QB1, and a risky one at that. Whether he’s throwing bombs or scoring Tush Push TDs, Jalen Hurts just keeps scoring. He’s an elite fantasy QB.
Running Backs
Cam Skattebo is fun to watch, but he has actually been trending in the wrong direction in terms of rushing usage and snap share. Still, the Eagles have struggled to stop opposing RBs, so he’s a high-end RB2. Saquon Barkley is still a must-start RB1 … for now, anyway.
Wide Receivers
With another solid outing against the Broncos, Wan’Dale Robinson is finally starting to get some respect. He is a high-end WR3, at least. After him, Darius Slayton is expected to return from his hamstring injury and should be the Giants’ WR2; he’s a deep flex option. A.J. Brown has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury. That opens the door for DeVonta Smith to be a must-start borderline WR1. Jahan Dotson should start alongside Smith, but the former Commander is just a desperation flex play. It’s not even clear who will be the Eagles’ WR3 — John Metchie? — whoever it is, they’re not playable.
Tight Ends
Coming off a week with an elite 92% participation rate and seven targets, sophomore TE Theo Johnson is a high-end TE2, if not even a borderline TE1. Especially with AJB out, Dallas Goedert is a solid TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
I expected the Giants to come crashing back down to Earth last week against the Broncos. That didn’t happen. So I want to be a little cautious when I say this, but… I’m going to play this game as a Philadelphia blowout.
Everything looks good for Saquon Barkley. He’s getting the opportunities, he’s getting volume, he’s just not getting the fantasy points. This is going to be the best chance he’s had in a while to get there. I really like that play this week, since he’s coming off busting as chalk last week. Hopefully there’ll be enough recency bias with the public thinking about the Giants and the Eagles two weeks ago… and Saquon busting last week that I can get by with Saquon at low ownership. I may even stack him with the Eagles defense, again expecting the Giants to fall back down to Earth. Again, even if we don’t feel 100% confident in a defense, the RB defense pairing is such a great correlation that it can make a lot of sense for us. So even though we’ve been pretty solid at picking defenses this year, you can look to last week… Quinshon Judkins paired with the Cleveland defense was a great play. Again, we don’t have to force it, but if we get an opportunity, we should definitely look at it. And the Eagles are a defense that historically has performed pretty well, and they are getting some touchdowns this year.
Everything looked good for A.J. Brown on paper this week as well. We’ve got to check out his health and make sure he’s good to go for Sunday, but you could go that angle as well. Coming off both Brown and DeVonta Smith having big games last week, again I’m going to prioritize going to Barkley in this and hope I get him at low ownership. I’m going to stay away from everybody on the Giants side, even if I was playing this game as a shootout. I don’t love the talent they have right now and their injury situation, so I’m going to stay away. UPDATE: Brown is out.
Pick’em Winner: Eagles
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bills 27.00, Panthers 19.50
Ted’s Preview:
It’s not a good sign for Bryce Young’s future that the general consensus seems to be that 37-year-old Andy Dalton will be an upgrade, at least for fantasy purposes. Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off back-to-back losses. As favorites by over a touchdown, they should have the opportunity to use this game to bounce back in whatever way they like.
Quarterbacks
Lamar’s return and Patrick Mahomes’ hot streak are making things closer than usual, but Josh Allen is still the default QB1 overall for every given week. Andy Dalton isn’t afraid to sling it and should get plenty of opportunities to do so, but he’s still a 37-year-old backup quarterback. He’s a backend QB2 option.
Running Backs
James Cook is a must-start RB1 this week. The only thing keeping him from being a truly elite option is just how good those top names have been this season. This is the game script where things might change, but neither Ty Johnson nor Ray Davis has been consistently involved enough to be playable. With Chuba Hubbard’s return last week, the Panthers alternated drives between him and Rico Dowdle, without any overlap at all. The Bills’ defense has actually been a decent matchup for RBs this season, so they are both in play as backend RB2s. If you have to choose between the two, my head says Hubbard (who played the first drive last week) … but my heart says Dowdle, who has been much more efficient and is therefore the more likely of the two to see his role expand.
Wide Receivers
Especially with Dalton under center, Tetairoa McMillan is a solid WR2. Xavier Legette’s big game last week means he should also be mentioned as a flex option. Jalen Coker, on the other hand, played a limited role in his 2025 debut. Until that changes, he’s not particularly playable. The story with the Bills’ receivers is the same as it always is: Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are both boom/bust WR3 types, while guys like Curtis Samuel, Tyrell Shavers, and Elijah Moore (in that order) are pure dart throws.
Tight Ends
Unfortunately, Ja’Tavion Sanders’ Week 7 return left him, Tommy Tremble, and Mitchell Evans in a three-way committee. Unsurprisingly, none of them are playable. Dalton Kincaid continues to get away with TE1 numbers on really lackluster usage. Given the lack of options at the position, he’s still a backend TE1 this week … but don’t be surprised when he eventually inevitably drops a dud.
DFS Thoughts:
We’ve been going pretty heavy on pay-down quarterbacks this year, with the exception of Dak Prescott. This is the week I’m pretty intrigued to pay up for Josh Allen. They’re coming out of a bye. The Panthers are decent against the run. The Bills have struggled a little bit with the pass, and they do have some injuries. But I think this is a nice situation for them to get their passing game going, lean on Josh Allen, let him play Superman Josh Allen. We typically see that in games where they are going back and forth, and I don’t expect this to be a back-and-forth game. But I do expect them to lean on Allen a little bit more, and let him get after some volume in an attempt to get their passing game right.
On the other side of it, we’ve got Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, who split time last week. But the Bills’ rushing defense isn’t great, so it sets up pretty nice on paper. And the Panthers are playing Andy Dalton this week, with Bryce Young out. So you can expect them to lean on the run as well. The Bills will know this, and may attempt to clamp down on the run if they can, but their defensive metrics have shown no ability to do that yet. So this could be a great opportunity for us to go get Rico Dowdle at very low ownership, with the expectation that he can take advantage of the Bills’ defense better than Chuba Hubbard can. He outperformed him last week, and given the way he performed when Hubbard was out, now that the Panthers have given Hubbard the respect of playing the lead role in his first game back, now they may feel a little bit more open to leaning on Dowdle in this game. So if I’m playing anywhere from the Panthers, I’m playing Dowdle, but I may also look at playing a more unconventional Josh Allen and the Bills’ defense. I’ll have to see what else I like, and how the salaries stack up, but that’s where I’m looking in this game. I don’t want anything to do with the Panthers’ passing game. I don’t think I want to play any Bills receivers, although I might take a shot on someone like Keon Coleman with the other injuries that the Bills have. If I’m expecting them to come out and work on their passing game, I would expect Keon Coleman to be a big part of that as well. I think this makes a nice play on FanDuel, although you could play it on both sites a little better on FanDuel since Keon Coleman’s value comes a little bit more from big plays and touchdowns than it does from passing volume.
Pick’em Winner: Bills
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: 49ers 19.75, Texans 21.75
Ted’s Preview:
The 49ers have overcome a laundry list of injuries to lead the NFC West at 5-2. However, Mac Jones and Co. get a real test this week against probably the league’s best defense. On the other side, the 49ers’ defense (which is also very injured) faces a Houston offense that has struggled to get anything going all season. This game has the second-lowest total of the weekend for a reason.
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones has had a shocking amount of success filling in for Brock Purdy, but it’s hard to see him as anything but a risky QB2 in this brutal matchup. C.J. Stroud is a mid-range QB2, and an uninspiring one at that, without his top receiver Nico Collins.
Running Backs
Once again, the Texans’ defense is a bad matchup, but little things like “the league’s best defense” don’t bother Christian McCaffrey. He finally found some efficiency on the ground last week (it’s not a coincidence that this happened when George Kittle returned) to go with his weekly minimum of eight targets. He’s a must-start RB1. For the Texans, Woody Marks is the team’s clear lead back at this point. But Nick Chubb is still involved, and this rushing offense as a whole has been inefficient. The rookie is a borderline RB2, while the veteran is an RB3/flex option.
Wide Receivers
Jauan Jennings seemingly returned to something resembling full healthy and reasserted himself as the 49ers’ lead WR (among healthy players) over Kendrick Bourne. With the tough matchup in mind, Jennings is a WR3 while Bourne is a flex play. As mentioned, Nico Collins is expected to miss this game, as is Christian Kirk. That means the Texans’ top receivers will likely be veteran Xavier Hutchinson and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, in that order. Braxton Berrios may also feature (he actually ran one more route than Noel in Week 7). Hutchinson and both of the Iowa State rookies are deep flex options.
Tight Ends
He dropped a goose egg in his first game back, but George Kittle still has the highest fantasy ceiling of any tight end in action this week — he’s a must-start TE1. Especially with all of Houston’s receiver injuries, Dalton Schultz is a borderline TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
Christian McCaffrey is another guy that we saw get the regression that we were looking for with the TDs outside the main slate. I’m not looking for him to repeat that this week. It should be a tough game. I’m looking for the 49ers to win it, but I don’t think it’s going to be a shootout or enough volume for McCaffrey to pay off his price. I don’t love much on the 49ers passing side. You could still line up them with Kittle on the other side in the second game back. On the other side, Dalton Schultz should get a lot of work with the receivers banged up. I don’t like a lot other than that. If you wanted to take a shot at Woody Marks, you can, but I don’t think it’s the best matchup. I won’t be going there. Mostly, I’ll be avoiding this game this week.
I also don’t love that the Texans are a favorite by Vegas. They’re getting three points because they’re home, so really, Vegas is projecting the 49ers to, on a neutral field, be a point-and-a-half favorite. But I think the 49ers’ defense is actually in play here this week on all sites.
Pick’em Winner: 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Buccaneers 25.25, Saints 21.25
Ted’s Preview:
Don’t look now, but Spencer Rattler is genuinely playing decent football in Kellen Moore’s fast-paced offense. Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, is playing at an elite level while all his receivers get injured around him. Neither of these defenses is good, so this could be a sneaky shootout for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield is a solid QB1. If his whole receiving group were healthy, he would be a borderline elite option in this matchup. On the other side, I know I just said he was playing well, but Spencer Rattler is still far from a fantasy star; he’s a QB2, although he does bring some rushing upside.
Running Backs
At this point, Rachaad White is just a weekly RB1 (especially in this matchup) as long as Bucky Irving remains out. Sean Tucker sees a few touches a week, but not enough to be a viable play. The Saints lost Kendre Miller for the season last week. In his absence, rookie Devin Neal saw just one carry on six snaps. Until proven otherwise, Neal is unplayable, and Alvin Kamara deserves a bump back to high-end RB2 status on volume alone.
Wide Receivers
I’m still a little skeptical of Emeka Egbuka‘s ability to earn elite volume when Tampa Bay’s other starting WRs are healthy … but they’re not, so he’s a clear WR1. Tez Johnson also deserves consideration as a backend WR3, while Sterling Shepard is a flex option. Chris Olave has finally turned his elite volume into elite production over the last two weeks. He’s a borderline WR1, especially in this good matchup. Rashid Shaheed is a high-end, high-variance WR2 against Tampa Bay’s beatable secondary.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton is an afterthought in the Buccaneers’ offense when everyone is healthy, but his usage always seems to ramp up as receivers go down. He is a borderline TE1 this week. Juwan Johnson is a solid TE2, if not better — his season-long usage numbers are still very solid. There’s a chance that Taysom Hill will see more gadget usage with Kendre out, but he’s just a TD-dependent dart throw until we actually see him take on a more steady role.
DFS Thoughts:
I’m probably going to stay away from this game. I think it’ll be relatively low scoring. Back and forth with all the injuries to the wide receivers and the Bucs. And the Saints having a decent defense. You could take a shot on Kamara with Kendre Miller out for the season. He should get a lot of work in the passing game. But you’re really banking on those targets. As it’s a difficult running matchup against the Bucs. On the Bucs side, I’m going to shy away from Emeka Egbuka. As he’ll probably be the most popular play on their team. Instead, if I wanted to go there, I’d go with Tez Johnson or Cade Otton. Maybe Sterling Shepard, but probably not. All that said, I’m going to stay away from this game. I do think the Saints can pull out a win here.
Pick’em Winner: Saints
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Cowboys 23.50, Broncos 27.00
Ted’s Preview:
This game has the highest total of the entire week. The Cowboys are incredibly defensively challenged, and their offense is elite enough that they should be able to score even against a tough Broncos unit. Things are definitely simpler to parse on the Dallas side, but there’s a lot to like about both teams here.
Quarterbacks
Again, the Broncos’ defense is one of the league’s best, allowing the fourth-fewest points to opposing QBs. But Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level right now. He’s still a QB1 despite the matchup, just more of a backend option than he would otherwise be. Bo Nix is coming off a weird game in which he somehow dropped 40 points despite doing almost nothing for the first three quarters. Normally, I’d caution against chasing those points. In this matchup, fire up Nix as a solid QB1.
Running Backs
Even in this matchup, Javonte Williams is a genuine borderline RB1. His volume is elite, and his efficiency has been great, too. J.K. Dobbins has been much less impressive, but he gets the matchup upgrade to be a high-end RB2 in his own right. RJ Harvey’s usage is mediocre at best, so he is still just a flex option despite the excellent potential game script.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb is back, and he’s once again a must-start elite WR1. George Pickens has been much less productive when his team’s alpha is active, but he’s still a high-end WR2 or even borderline WR1. Given the matchup and the number of options on bye, Courtland Sutton is a genuine WR1. The rest of Denver’s receivers also benefit from Dallas’ “secondary,” but they all see frustratingly inconsistent usage. Troy Franklin is a WR3, while Marvin Mims is a high-upside flex.
Tight Ends
Like Pickens, Jake Ferguson gets a downgrade with Lamb back, but that downgrade isn’t enough to make him not a weekly starter. Evan Engram has seen more targets recently, but he has still yet to hit even a 60% route participation rate in a game this season. He’s a TE2 with high upside but a low floor.
DFS Thoughts:
It’s another week with the Cowboys game with a high projected total. A week after seeing the Broncos with a giant 4th quarter comeback against the Giants. If they perform for the whole game, this definitely could turn into a shootout. That said, the Broncos defense is typically strong enough that it could lower expectations a little bit. Both Lamb and Pickens are in play here. Ferguson’s in play again. I don’t want to go to the Cowboys running game. If I’m coming back with somebody on the Broncos, which I think is a good idea, I’m going with Sutton or Troy Franklin. I’m going to stay away from Engram. I’m going to stay away from the Broncos running game. Even though we have seen some running games have some big success against the Cowboys. Ultimately, I think this might be a little lower scoring than expected. But I think Sutton’s still in play. Franklin’s still in play. And one of the Cowboys wide receivers are in play.
Pick’em Winner: Cowboys
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Titans 16.25, Colts 30.75
Ted’s Preview:
The Colts might be the best team in the NFL, while the Titans might be the worst. This game has an absurd 14.5-point spread, which really tells us all we need to know. The only question is whether the Colts’ ceilings will be capped if they start resting their starters at halftime.
Quarterbacks
He looked better last week in his first week under Interim Head Coach Mike McCoy, and this is a game in which he should see plenty of volume. But Cam Ward is still just a QB2 option if you have essentially no one else. Daniel Jones, on the other hand, is a solid QB1. We just have to hope he gets a chance to throw for a TD or four before things get out of hand.
Running Backs
The pendulum in the Titans’ backfield swung back toward Tony Pollard and away from Tyjae Spears last week. Still, this is a brutal situation for any RB. Pollard is a high-end RB3, while Spears is an ugly flex play. Jonathan Taylor is a no-doubt RB1, if not the RB1. If you’re truly desperate for a running back, there’s a chance that Ameer Abdullah finds his way to a garbage-time TD like he did in Week 5 against the Raiders. The same applies, to a slightly lesser degree, for DJ Giddens.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley has been ruled out. That leaves fourth-round rookie Elic Ayomanor, journeyman Van Jefferson, and fourth-round rookie Chimere Dike as the Titans’ WRs to face a Colts defense that allows the second-most points to the position. Ayomanor is a legit flex option, while the other two are more desperation picks. Michael Pittman Jr. is a high-end WR2, albeit with some volume risk if Jones only has to attempt a dozen or so passes. With those volume concerns, Alec Pierce and the returning Josh Downs are both boom/bust flex plays — I actually prefer Pierce, who is more likely to have a solid outing on just a couple touches.
Tight Ends
I’ve seen some analysts declaring otherwise, but Chigoziem Okonkwo is still operating as the Titans’ lead receiving TE. However, Gunnar Helm has cut into his work enough that neither is a viable option. Tyler Warren is the TE1 this week, and it’s not particularly close.
DFS Thoughts:
There’s really no reason not to play Jonathan Taylor, other than perhaps price and ownership. He should be popular, and he’s definitely worth it. I think I have enough other solid running back options that I’m okay fading him at high ownership. If he does come in low-owned because of the price, I might look to get him on some lineups. I’m still not ready to play the Titans offense. We might get some of their wide receivers at extremely low prices with Ridley out. So, if you are playing Taylor, you could take a shot on one of those, like Dike, in the hopes that they do get a little bit of something going, and get enough to pay off their value. Same with Chig Okonkwo, who has a decent matchup against the Colts defense. I’m not going to play anything on the Colts wide receiver side. It would be Jonathan Taylor, or skip the game altogether.
Pick’em Winner: Colts
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Packers 24.25, Steelers 21.25
Ted’s Preview:
It may be a year or two late, but we are getting our “Aaron Rodgers Revenge Game.” Unfortunately for the Rodgers, his old team is clearly more talented than his new one at this point. However, the Packers have a unique ability to play down to their opponents, while Mike Tomlin’s Steelers always keep things close. This one also has a decent total for two theoretically defense-first teams.
Quarterbacks
Will Jordan Love be inspired to show out to prove that the Packers made the right decision backing him over Rodgers? Maybe. But he has scored more than 20 points just twice all season (and more than 20.9 just once), so it’s hard to see him as more than a high-end QB2. Aaron Rodgers has actually also scored more than 20 points jus twice, and his lows have been relatively lower — he’s a mid-range QB2.
Running Backs
After much drama surrounding his availability, Josh Jacobs suited up last week and provided yet another excellent week. He’s a no-doubt RB1. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren seems to have once again drawn clear from Kenneth Gainwell as the Steelers’ RB1. He is an RB2, Gainwell is a flex play, and Kaleb Johnson is a bust.
Wide Receivers
The story of the week in the Packers’ ever-shifting WR room is that Christian Watson appears to be on track for a remarkably early return from the torn ACL that ended his 2024 season (in Week 18!!). Dontayvion Wicks is out, so Watson should join Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden as one of the team’s top three WRs. Doubs, as has been the case for years at this point, is the only one with a consistent role. He’s a high-end WR3, while Golden is a boom/bust WR3 and Watson is a boom/bust dart throw flex. DK Metcalf is the Steelers’ clear WR1, but his usage isn’t as good as you might think (just 6.2 targets per game). Still, he’s a high-end WR2 with massive upside if he hits on a big play or two. Calvin Austin III is set to return from injury this week and should slot back in as Pittsburgh’s WR2, but he’s still just a flex play.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft’s usage isn’t as consistent as we might like, but his upside makes him a no-doubt TE1. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, and Darnell Washington combined for over 40 points last week, with each chipping in at least 7.7. However, none of them actually has particularly exciting usage. Jonnu profiles as a middling to backend TE2, Freiermuth is a borderline TE2, and Washington isn’t playable.
DFS Thoughts:
No DFS notes — save for Showdown later.
Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Commanders 18.00, Chiefs 30.00
Ted’s Preview:
Rashee Rice’s return last week made it official: The Chiefs are back. Unfortunately, we are very unlikely to get a classic Monday Night Football shootout in this one, as Jayden Daniels’ absence means we get Patrick Mahomes vs. Marcus Mariota. The Commanders are tied for the third-lowest total of the week, while the Chiefs have the second-highest.
Quarterbacks
To be fair, Marcus Mariota has played well when replacing Daniels so far this season. He also brings rushing upside, with at least 20 yards in each of his three appearances. In fact, he projects like a borderline QB1, although I’ll have him ranked more as a solid/high-end QB2. Patrick Mahomes, on the other hand, has recemented himself as an elite fantasy option after a couple of years of being weirdly mediocre for arguably the best QB of all time.
Running Backs
I’ve been very high on Jacory Croskey-Merritt in recent weeks, and it hasn’t paid off. Now, a lot of things are against him: His usage is moving in the wrong direction, this game script sets up to be terrible, and the Chiefs’ defense is excellent against RBs. With that said, he’s still the Commanders’ clear top option and a borderline RB2. Jeremy McNichols is just a desperation flex play in PPR formats. Kareem Hunt missed a couple of practices this week, making him genuinely questionable (it’s unfortunate that this game is Monday night). However, Isiah Pacheco seemed to be pulling away as the lead back in this offense anyway. Assuming Hunt plays, he is a flex, while Pacheco is a backend RB2. Brashard Smith is also a desperation flex option — his rushing workload last week was a garbage-time mirage, but his receiving role is real.
Wide Receivers
After missing last week, both Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin seem to be on track to play. I’m operating under the assumption that Samuel is this team’s top option until proven otherwise, so he is a WR2 to McLaurin’s WR3. For Kansas City, Rashee Rice is already a must-start WR1 — he will likely be less of a focus on a per-route basis going forward than he was in his debut, but his route rate has tons of room to grow. Xavier Worthy is a borderline WR2, while Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton are risky flex options. In fact, the latter two of those final three are likely pure TD-dependent dart throws at this point.
Tight Ends
He’s not likely to see as many targets with the team’s receivers back healthy, but Zach Ertz is still a very solid TE2 who you can stream as a TE1 in a pinch. Travis Kelce is still a TE1 for now, but his usage has quietly been underwhelming all season.
DFS Thoughts:
No DFS notes — save for Showdown later.
Lineup Building
For my overall builds this week, Derrick Henry is a lock. He’s the centerpiece of my core lineups across all sites. From there, I’ll be mixing in De’Von Achane on the slates and team constructions where it makes sense, and I’ll have plenty of Saquon Barkley, often paired with the Eagles’ defense for that strong RB-DEF correlation.
I also like the 49ers’ defense on every platform — they’re underowned relative to ceiling and offer great salary flexibility without sacrificing upside.
My main game stack exposure will be focused on that Ravens-Bears matchup, where I’ll be leaning Caleb Williams to Rome Odunze, with Henry and maybe even Zay Flowers as bring-backs depending on lineup construction.
From there, I’ll be mixing in pieces of the Cowboys-Broncos game, choosing spots based on ownership and pricing — players like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Courtland Sutton, or Troy Franklin where appropriate.
FanDuel Ownership Review
At quarterback, a little surprising to see Josh Allen at the top of the list at over 15 percent. His talent, of course, warrants being that highly owned. Then we go to Lamar, in a game that we’re expecting to be a shootout. He’s coming in at similar ownership levels. Daniel Jones, given his efficiency. This is a little bit of a surprise, given we expect Jonathan Taylor to be so heavily owned. But not terribly surprising, given the game total, and the implied team total for the Colts. Bo Nix coming in on the other side of the Cowboys game. That makes some sense. Baker, coming in around 10%. He’s higher than I would expect, given the lack of weapons and the decent Saints defense. You’ve got Dak in there, you’ve got Jalen Hurts in there. Drake Maye, Tyrod Taylor coming in as the cheap option on the slate. Andy Dalton coming in. Then we get down outside the top 10 and we see Caleb Williams. So given my focus on that Ravens game, I think if I’m in need of salary relief, I will swap in Caleb Williams and take Josh Allen out. Get a little bit more leverage on the field.
On FanDuel at Running Back, not a lot of big surprises. We see Taylor, we see McCaffrey, Bijan, De’Von Achane, James Cook, Derrick Henry, Saquon, Rachaad White. At Running Back is where we want to be the heaviest on chalk. You still have to get the right ones, but generally, it’s the most scarce position and the most concentrated ownership at the top. We do find some situations in some weeks where we have some value options that become able to provide a lot of bang for their buck. They usually end up chalky as well. So our three preferred that we’ve talked about, De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry, and Saquon Barkley are all in the top ten of ownership. But none of them are coming in at extreme levels where it becomes an easy fade. Taylor comes in at the highest ownership. That makes him an okay fade. It’s not that we’re fading Taylor. It’s that we like the other running backs good enough that we don’t feel a need to pay up for him. I will note on FanDuel, I don’t really love De’Von Achane at his price on FanDuel. I’d rather pay another two grand and go up to Jonathan Taylor there. I don’t really love Rachaad White. Same situation. I expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game. I don’t love him on FanDuel. I do like Derrick Henry. I do like Saquon Barkley. And we can play around there and see what else we like. We could go to James Cook as a leverage off of Josh Allen. Could go to Kamara, get a little bit of a price savings. Could go all the way down to Woody Marks. Get some some really nice price savings there. Again, I don’t really love that game. But he is in a decent spot there if the script goes the right way. And we did talk about Rico Dowdle coming in on the other side of that Josh Allen play as well. Coming in down around less than 5% ownership. He could be a really solid play at a cheap price, at low ownership, and we know what he is capable of. Tyler Allgeier coming in at less than 2%. Again, he’s got the ability to pay off that price given the game situation. If I’m looking at fading De’Von Achane on FanDuel and going to Rico Dowdle instead, that would cause me to want to bump back up to Josh Allen rather than Caleb Williams. So I’ll play around with that on FanDuel.
On FanDuel at Wide Receiver, not a lot of huge surprises. As expected, Emeka Egbuka is getting a lot of ownership. Chris Olave, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb. Courtland Sutton is coming in a little higher than I would want him to be. I still might try to get him into a lineup. I might try to see what he is on DraftKings instead. Zay Flowers, we’ve talked about. George Pickens. Rome Odunze is the first one that grabs my attention as coming in with some sort of ownership leverage. He’s still coming in down around top 15. But that’s a little bit under-owned for the potential of that game environment. And again, if we go to Caleb Williams, that’s a nice stacking partner. Even if we do bump up to Josh Allen, a mini stack of Derrick Henry and Rome Odunze still makes a lot of sense. We’ve talked about Keon Coleman coming in at a decent price, pretty low ownership. Tez Johnson on the other side makes a great pivot away from Emeka Egbuka. He’s coming in about a third of the ownership of Emeka Egbuka. Troy Franklin makes a lot of sense coming back on the other side of that Cowboys game. If Sutton is that pricey and that popular, I would definitely look to Troy Franklin to get a cheaper, much lower-owned piece of that game. If you do go to Jonathan Taylor, you’ve got Chimere Dike coming in at around a 1% ownership. He is going to be thrust into a bigger role in that game, so you certainly could take a flyer on him. DeAndre Hopkins down there near 0%. If you’re not taking the Derrick Henry side or if you don’t want to go to the Zay Flowers side, he’s capable of putting up a game at that price still. Tyrell Shavers is coming in low owned. We didn’t talk about him, but he’s going to be potentially thrust into a bigger role for the Bills. Coming in near 0% at $4,500, he makes a lot of sense as well as a salary saver.
No big surprises at tight end on FanDuel. Jake Ferguson, Tyler Warren, George Kittle, all coming in at the top in that 10-15% range. This is definitely a week, in my opinion, to go to a little bit more value. We’ve got Dalton Schultz. We didn’t talk about Dallas Goedert, but with A.J. Brown out, we know he gets a lot of touchdown equity. I’m still going to lean toward the Saquon Barkley side here. But if you don’t go to Barkley, and maybe you go to Jonathan Taylor instead, Dallas Goedert is definitely in play. Dalton Schultz in play, Cade Otton in play, Harold Fannin. And then down near the top 15 or so, the bottom of the top 15, Chig Okonkwo is in play. Taysom Hill, with Kendre Miller banged up. This could be a week where we see Taysom Hill get a little bit more work coming in down around 1% ownership. And Colston Loveland coming in down around 1% ownership as well, with Cole Kmet out.
On FanDuel at Defense, the very top’s not surprising. You’ve got the Colts, you’ve got the Saints. Then coming in the Bengals, that’s still surprising. I know it’s the Jets, but it’s still surprising to put the Bengals at Defense anywhere on our list. The Eagles, I’m targeting them, but they are coming in higher on than I was expecting them to be. If you want to pivot away from there, that’s totally fine to pivot from that. 49ers come in, low owned, just outside the top 10. The Bills are outside the top 10, they make sense as well.
DraftKings Ownership Review
On DraftKings at Quarterback, we see Bo Nix and Daniel Jones get into the top, coming in around 15%, where you need to squeeze a little bit more salary out on DraftKings than you do on FanDuel. They’re coming in a little bit cheaper than some of the top guys like Lamar, Josh Allen coming in just behind them. Tyrod Taylor coming in at $4,500, cracks the top 5 for us. I’m not going to play him, but the price is definitely right. Flacco coming in around the top 10. Again, we know what he can do. It’s not a game I’m going to target him again this week. I’m going to stay away from Andy Dalton. We see Caleb Williams coming in again at $5,600 on DraftKings, coming in in the top 15. I’ll gladly play him on DraftKings.
On DraftKings at running back, similar to FanDuel, not a lot of surprises. Jonathan Taylor on top, Rachaad White, Javonte Williams jumps in a little bit there, I’m gonna stay away from that. J.K. Dobbins, again a product of the game environment and the implied total, I’m gonna stay away from that. We do see Derrick Henry, we see Alvin Kamara not jump quite as high as I thought he would on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. He makes a lot of sense here as a high volume play, but again take it with some caution because of the Bucs rush defense. Saquon coming in the top 15. Pretty similar, see Rico Dowdle down near the bottom, pretty similar to FanDuel.
On DraftKings at wide receiver, pretty similar. Ja’Marr Chase, Zay Flowers. Emeka Egbuka up near the top. Olave’s up at the top. I don’t think this is an Olave week. Drake London’s up there. I don’t think it’s a Drake London week. DeVonta Smith is in the top 10 with A.J. Brown out. I’d rather go to Dallas Goedert if I’m taking that play or not taking the Saquon Barkley side of things. Waddle’s rounding out the top 10. It’s a little thin for me. I’d rather go to Achane. Lamb and Pickens both lower down the list given the presence of both of them. Lamb comes in higher, so you could swap to Pickens in this case. Courtland Sutton’s not as popular here as he was on FanDuel. Rome Odunze coming in top 20. Under 10%. I think he’s a great target. Keon Coleman, Troy Franklin coming in around 5%. With Pickens quite a bit lower given the big game that Lamb had last week, he’s a pretty solid option on DraftKings. If you go with a Franklin and a George Pickens mini stack, that makes a lot of sense. And then we see some of our potential value plays thrown into bigger roles with Chimere Dike, Tyrell Shavers coming in, both around 1%. They could easily pop, especially on DraftKings with some added volume.
On DraftKings, tight end, not a lot of surprises. Tyler Warren, George Kittle, but we do see some of the cheaper ones get tossed into the top five. Dalton Schultz, Colston Loveland, Cade Otton, some of them we’ve talked about. So again, on DraftKings, the pricing is usually a little bit tighter, and you’ve got to squeeze out every dollar you can. So we do see the value options add a little bit more of an ownership premium. Dallas Goedert’s in the top ten. Chig Okonkwo coming in only around 1%. Taysom Hill coming in near 0%. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a Taysom Hill game, again, with Kendre Miller out, and them needing to get a little bit creative and find ways to extend the run game.
On DraftKings at Defense, pretty similar, Colts. The Bengals again up there, they are cheap, but again, I know they’re playing the Jets, I just can’t bring myself to play the Bengals defense. Saints, Giants, Eagles, Giants just because of their price, I don’t like that. San Fran coming in again, standing out as a value play to me. The Bills coming in down near the bottom of the list and what certainly could be a good defensive matchup for them.
Yahoo Ownership Review
On Yahoo, I’m targeting extreme value. It’s really a site for studs and duds, so start with the value plays, and then fill your roster in with the higher priced players that you can fit.
Use the player grid to find those low owned plays to start your lineup with. You can find starters at less than half the cost of other starters this week.
Top value plays on Yahoo include: Tez Johnson, Josh Reynolds, Samaje Perine, San Francisco 49ers at basement prices. These types of plays open up salary to stack elite options like Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, Ja’Marr Chase, and Bijan Robinson.
