NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 7
Looking back on last week, we put up a 166 on DraftKings — good enough to cash in the PowerSweep with our secondary lineup. It was another reminder of how small tweaks can swing a lineup’s outcome. We had 6 players under 10% ownership and leaned into running back chalk with Josh Jacobs and Kyren Williams, but we faded Rico Dowdle at 40% owned. Throughout the week, I was never on Dowdle, preferring instead to go to the Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan side of things to get some leverage. I just wasn’t on the Cowboys’ Revenge narrative or on the idea that he would repeat his historic performance. Instead, I leaned heavily into the Packers and Bengals game with Flacco, Ja’Marr Chase, and Chase Brown on the other side of Josh Jacobs.
That Dowdle fade cost roughly 30 points, which would have moved the lineup from a small cash to a strong one. Importantly, Dowdle would have correlated naturally with George Pickens who I did have, reinforcing the lineup’s internal story. The Flacco–Chase–Brown stack nearly paid off in the fourth quarter but fell short due to the game’s lower-than-expected total. I did have the Bucs defense as leverage against the Christian McCaffrey chalk, and they performed well even if not slate-breaking. Overall, we avoided bad chalk and told a solid story, but variance didn’t break our way.
In my other lineup, I had just flipped a little bit based on the weather reports. I swapped to Javonte Williams, taking Pickens out, and dropped out of Kyren Williams to go to Davante Adams. That change was a 30-point swing with losing Pickens’ score. So again, small tweaks, even though the core of the lineup was the same, can make a big difference in the end. That’s what we talk about when we say we just need variance to go in our favor. We can’t predict players perfectly, but we can build strong lineups, tell the right story, and when the variance does hit, we benefit from it.
That said, it’s always good to see the process validated. The Flacco–Ja’Marr Chase stack we talked about did ultimately get there, even if it was scary for a while. And then, fittingly, on Thursday night we saw the version of that game we’d been chasing all along — Flacco putting up 3 TDs in a 33–31 win over the Steelers, with Chase exploding for 16 receptions. We probably won’t get another opportunity to buy that stack at a discount; prices are likely to rise now that the box score has caught up to the underlying usage we’d been targeting.
Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London Game)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET | Projected Totals: Rams 23.75, Jaguars 20.75
Ted’s Preview:
This game can’t possibly be worse than the atrocity that the Jets and Broncos provided for the people of London last week. But it doesn’t exactly make me excited to get up at 6 a.m. PST, either. The Rams will be without All-World WR Puka Nacua, while the Jaguars have ridden a league-best turnover differential to a 4-2 record. Personally, I expect Sean McVay and Co. to take care of business overseas, but this is projected to be a fairly close contest.
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford is undeniably a less appealing play without Nacua, who has accounted for well over a third of the team’s passing yards so far this season. But the veteran has played excellently so far this season; he is a high-end QB2 against a Jacksonville defense that ranks top 10 in points allowed to quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence is the QB22 in points per game. Against a tough Rams defense, he’s nothing more than a mid-range QB2.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams’ usage has been less consistent so far this season than in years past, but he still sees solid workloads in his down weeks. He’s a backend RB1. Travis Etienne has cooled down over the last two weeks after a hot start, but he’s still dominating the Jaguars’ backfield. The bad matchup pushes him to backend RB2 territory, but no further. Neither Blake Corum nor Bhayshul Tuten is consistently involved enough to be more than a dart-throw flex option.
Wide Receivers
With Puka sidelined, Davante Adams gets to be Matthew Stafford’s WR1, a historically very valuable role for fantasy. The 32-year-old is a genuine elite option this week. Behind him, Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington will compete for targets — it’s hard to get an exact handle on who the preferred option is, as they have traded off dealing with injuries over the last two weeks. They are both valid, if risky, streaming options. For the Jaguars, the only receiver who can confidently be started is Brian Thomas Jr., as a WR2. Travis Hunter finally saw his role expand last week, but who knows if that was a one-off … and he still didn’t produce anyway. However, his increase came at the expense of Dyami Brown. The rookie is a high-risk/high-reward flex play, while the veteran is more of a desperation option.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee returned from injury last week, but he still ran less than 50% of the Rams’ available routes. Even before the injury, he never passed a 60% participation rate. He’s arguably not even playable in two-TE formats. The same applies to Hunter Long, who has been nowhere near as involved as Brenton Strange was prior to his injury.
DFS Thoughts:
No DFS notes — save for Showdown later.
Pick’em Winner: Rams
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Saints 21.00, Bears 25.50
Ted’s Preview:
Some credit is due to Spencer Rattler, as the 2024 fifth-rounder has exceeded expectations so far this season. However, that has more to do with how low the original expectations were than anything else. Meanwhile, expectations were sky-high for Ben Johnson’s Chicago offense. So far, the results have been mixed, with a tilt toward the positive end. I’m a bit surprised the Bears aren’t bigger favorites at home against the one-win Saints.
Quarterbacks
As I said, Spencer Rattler has only been good when compared to very low expectations. He is averaging less than 15 fantasy points per game, and only Chicago’s generous pass defense makes him a backend QB2. Caleb Williams, on the other hand, is in the midst of a fantasy breakout. He’s a genuine QB1 option this week.
Running Backs
Kendre Miller’s role in the Saints’ backfield has been growing; he even out-carried Alvin Kamara in Week 5. However, the veteran still sees all of the pass-catching work in this offense, and it sounds like he isn’t going anywhere. Kamara is a backend RB2, while Miller is an unappealing flex option (especially with Taysom Hill lurking to vulture goal-line TDs). For the Bears, D’Andre Swift has surprisingly popped up on the injury report with a groin injury. However, that reportedly isn’t a new injury, so I expect him to play this week. He is an RB2 in this good matchup. If he’s out, Kyle Monangai becomes a solid option — right now, the rookie is just a speculative play.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave continues to see absolutely elite usage and provide mediocre results. But I simply can’t ignore these target numbers. He’s a backend WR2, and he could easily outperform that ranking if the good matchup allows him to make the most of his volume. Rashid Shaheed has been more involved of late, putting him firmly back on the fantasy radar as a boom/bust WR3 option. For the Bears, Rome Odunze is coming off a down week but still a must-start borderline WR1. DJ Moore had to stay overnight in a hospital with a mysterious groin injury after Chicago’s Week 6 game but is reportedly good to go for this week. He is a viable WR3. Olamide Zaccheaus and Luther Burden III (in that order, still) are deep flex options.
Tight Ends
While Shaheed’s role has grown, Juwan Johnson is seeing less usage after starting the season strong. He’s firmly a TE2 at this point. Taysom Hill scored a goal-line touchdown in his second game back last week, but it was his only touch of the game. He slots in as a completely TD-dependent TE option, albeit one with a fairly high chance of scoring. Neither Colston Loveland (39%) nor Cole Kmet (30%) ran enough routes last week to be playable this week.
DFS Thoughts:
This is a game with two pretty solid defenses that could create a lot of turnovers. But each defense also has its weak points where the battle between two mediocre to bad teams could be a little higher in scoring than expected. But I definitely wouldn’t expect it to be a shootout. There are some players we can look to if the game works out. We can look to Luther Burden. And on the other side we can look to Chris Olave who has good metrics but hasn’t quite had it show up in the fantasy points this year. That makes a nice mini-stack if receivers get a lot of ownership this week. This could be a mini-stack we love to differentiate ourselves with. I don’t love either running game this week. And both defenses could be in play. I will probably land somewhere else. But if you don’t play that mini-stack, the defenses are a sort of play here.
Pick’em Winner: Bears
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Dolphins 17.25, Browns 19.75
Ted’s Preview:
Yikes. This one was always going to be ugly, and there appears to be a chance it will be played in a massive storm. However, I’m surprised that the Browns are favorites, even at home. Their defense is good, but their offense is arguably the league’s worst. The Dolphins are in the opposite scenario, so I guess homefield advantage is the tiebreaker here. Regardless, with by far the lowest total on the slate, this is not an exciting game to target.
Quarterbacks
Again, I’m a little surprised that Miami’s total is so low, as their offense has been fine in recent weeks, even without Tyreek Hill. But given it is, Tua Tagovailoa projects as a borderline QB2, nothing more. Despite the excellent matchup, Dillon Gabriel is also barely in the QB2 conversation.
Running Backs
The running backs do at least bring some fantasy upside in this matchup. De’Von Achane continues to get there every week on the best receiving usage of any RB not named McCaffrey — he’s an RB1. Quinshon Judkins, on the other hand, is hardly involved in the receiving game, but he has looked the part on the ground. Given that the Browns are favored against Miami’s paper mache defense, he’s also a backend RB1. I don’t recommend playing Jerome Ford or Ollie Gordon, and Dylan Sampson isn’t even on the fantasy radar at this point.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle has elite usage, even if this environment is unappealing. He’s a high-end WR2. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine continues to run more routes than Malik Washington, but the sophomore is earning more touches (albeit almost entirely designed touches at or behind the LOS). Given the matchup, neither is an appealing option. On the other side, Jerry Jeudy is coming off a 13-target week and facing arguably the league’s softest secondary … and it’s still hard to get excited about him. He’s a WR3, nothing more. Isaiah Bond is running enough routes to be a flex option, but not a good one, in this matchup.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller had his worst fantasy outing of the season so far last week, but he actually posted easily a new season-high in route participation rate (75%). The veteran has already done enough to establish himself as a backend TE1. With David Njoku out, Harold Fannin Jr. is also a backend TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
There are some pieces I really like in this game, but there are also some really severe weather concerns. I think everybody’s going to flock to Quinshon Judkins. He’s getting to run against Miami after they’ve been torn up by the run in recent weeks. They typically want to run the ball first, reducing the amount that Dillon Gabriel needs to do. This is a game where they should be able to win and stick to that game plan. If the wind and rain is as bad as expected, they will also lean on Judkins more. Although Miami will know that as well, they might be able to attempt to adjust. I’m not sure if they’re able to adjust, but they might be able to attempt to adjust and focus on something else.
I really like Darren Waller on the Miami side. At this point he’s probably my top tight end play for this week. In a bad weather game, it’s short passes to Waller. That’s good for how Waller plays in this weather with a lot of targets coming underneath. If he has a lot of ownership, it’s a fade. But we have Kelce in this slate. With Rashee Rice coming back, Kelce will be able to come in at a lot lower ownership percentage. The defense pairing with Waller is really nice. Harold Fannin Jr. is going to take the place of Njoku. That’s a good play. Again, there are enough other good tight ends above those two that ownership should come in at a very low percentage. With the weather concerns, you could bump the defense a little bit more. All in all, I think this will be a low scoring game.
Pick’em Winner: Browns
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Raiders 16.75, Chiefs 28.75
Ted’s Preview:
The Chiefs seem to be fully back as an elite offense … and now they get Rashee Rice back, too. Meanwhile, the Geno Smith/Pete Carroll/Chip Kelly experiment in Vegas is not exactly going as planned. This game has easily the most lopsided spread of the slate.
Quarterbacks
Especially now that Rice is returning, Patrick Mahomes is once again a set-and-forget QB1. With two of the other usual elite options on bye this week, he is arguably the QB2 overall. Geno Smith, meanwhile, is only relevant in 2-QB formats … and even there, you hopefully have a better option.
Running Backs
Out of seemingly nowhere, Isiah Pacheco claimed a legit lead role in the Chiefs’ backfield last week. He saw 12 carries to Kareem Hunt’s six and played 77% of Kansas City’s offense snaps. Importantly, those snaps also included snaps near the goal line, which had previously gone nearly exclusively to Hunt. Especially given the matchup, he is back on the radar as a solid RB3 … if not more. Hunt, meanwhile, is now more of a flex play, where you’re hoping he falls into the end zone. Ashton Jeanty is seeing excellent usage and playing well despite the Raiders’ overall struggles. He is a high-end RB2 despite the brutal situation.
Wide Receivers
We are finally going to get the answer to one of the questions of the offseason: Is Xavier Worthy or Rashee Rice the Chiefs’ WR1? They both have wide ranges of outcomes until that question is settled … thankfully, they are also both must-starts, too. However, I would avoid the other Kansas City receivers (Hollywood Brown, Tyquan Thornton, and JuJu Smith-Schuster) until we see their roles with everyone healthy. For the Raiders, Jakobi Meyers has gone from failing to produce on good volume to not even seeing volume. He’s just a flex play, as is Tre Tucker.
Tight Ends
Rice’s return is likely to cut into **Travis Kelce’**s volume. But the lack of other options at the TE position plus the Chiefs’ sudden offensive efficiency means he is still a backend TE1. With Brock Bowers missing another week, Michael Mayer is a solid TE2 option — he saw a 30% target share last week.
DFS Thoughts:
There’s a lot of talk about Rashee Rice coming back. Rashee Rice has now been added to the player pool on FanDuel, but he’s priced far too high for his first game back, so I’ll be passing on him there. If you’re intent on playing him, DraftKings offers a slightly more reasonable salary — but even then, I’ll likely stay away. His role uncertainty and Mahomes’ tendency to spread targets make him a fragile piece to bet on in this spot. Still, if you want exposure, DraftKings is the only site where he’s a viable value, not FanDuel.
If Rashee Rice is going to project as one of the most popular WRs on DraftKings, there’s an easy leverage path. Mahomes tends to spread the ball around, so betting on him through Rice can be thin chalk. Instead, consider Patrick Mahomes plus Travis Kelce as a direct leverage pivot off Rice ownership, or Jordan Addison as a one-for-one pivot in that same price range and role type. Essentially, you’re betting that the return to form game hits for one of these two receivers — but doing it in a way that avoids duplicated roster constructions.
It’s worth noting that Kansas City typically starts slow in recent seasons — both offensively and in terms of player rhythm. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mahomes and Rice aren’t fully in sync right away. Rice might need a week or two to get reacclimated, especially coming off injury (then suspension). That makes this an easy ownership fade for me — I’ll take the leverage with Xavier Worthy or go back to Travis Kelce instead.
Pick’em Winner: Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Eagles 22.75, Vikings 20.75
Ted’s Preview:
After escaping with wins despite terrible vibes in their first four games, the Eagles are now on a two-game losing streak. They scored just 17 points in both of those defeats, including a humiliation on prime time by their division rival Giants. Meanwhile, the Vikings will be rolling out Carson Wentz for at least one more week. Can their excellent defense cover for their mediocre offense?
Quarterbacks
It’s not pretty, but Jalen Hurts always seems to get the job done … for fantasy, anyway. He’s still a no-brainer QB1 even in this tough matchup. Carson Wentz, on the other hand, is only playable if you’re running out of options in a 2-QB league.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley is similar to his quarterback — it’s not at all pretty, but he just keeps scoring fantasy points. He’s a must-start RB1 despite having looked mediocre at best so far this season. Jordan Mason is seeing solid enough usage to be an RB2 against an Eagles defense that is actually a top-10 matchup for opposing RBs. I don’t recommend playing Zavier Scott or A.J. Dillon.
Wide Receivers
The Vikings’ defense has been outlier-level dominant against opposing receivers so far this season. But A.J. Brown, for all the drama, has still seen at least eight targets for each of the last five weeks; he’s a WR2. I’m a little more scared of DeVonta Smith. He has the talent to have a big game even in this brutal matchup, but his role is less consistent. He’s a boom/bust WR3. For the Vikings, Justin Jefferson is a must-start no matter who his quarterback is. Jordan Addison is more of a WR3 type, similar to Smith.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert keeps scoring TDs on weird shovel passes, but he’s also seeing solid overall usage, including 11 targets last week. He’s a solid TE1. T.J. Hockenson, on the other hand, has become an afterthought in the Vikings’ offense, pushing him down to the TE2 ranks.
DFS Thoughts:
This game has some uncertainty with whether Wentz or McCarthy will be starting at quarterback for the Vikings. We expect it to be Wentz again, making the pass catchers a little bit more viable on the Vikings side, but the Philadelphia defense is solid enough to limit the upside. We could take a shot on Justin Jefferson, or we could expect a little bit more attention on him and take a shot on Jordan Addison. I will probably look at pricing and ownership to see if I want to go there. On the other side of the ball, Saquon Barkley, we know is extremely talented, but the offense hasn’t looked the same this year. This is a decent matchup for him by the numbers, so it is a spot where we could go Barkley and Jefferson or Barkley and Addison. I’m not sure I’ll go there, but I will at least give it a look. Otherwise, not a lot else I really like in this game. I don’t expect it to be a shootout, I do expect it to be a little slower, which again might limit the upside.
Pick’em Winner: Eagles
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Panthers 21.75, Jets 20.25
Ted’s Preview:
The Jets provided one of the most pathetic displays of football we have seen in a long time last Sunday. Justin Fields threw for just 45 yards on 17 attempts and lost 55 yards on nine sacks, finishing with NEGATIVE 10 net passing yards. However, Fields and Co. have also shown that they’re capable of showing signs of life (and/or racking up garbage-time points) against weaker opposition. The question is whether the Panthers fit that bill, as they currently seem to be thoroughly mediocre on both sides of the ball.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young, like the Panthers as a whole, seems to have settled into a stasis of uninspiring mediocrity. He’s a backend QB2 against a beatable Jets defense. Justin Fields, on the other hand, is an enigma. He technically projects as a QB1, but I find it very hard to recommend him as a fantasy starter. There are plenty of other quarterbacks capable of having solid fantasy outings, and his floor is week-losingly low. Playing him might be the right call, but it’s not for the faint of heart.
Running Backs
Will breakout star Rico Dowdle or returning starter Chuba Hubbard be the Panthers’ RB1 this week? Personally, my money’s on Rico, who was simply too good to ignore over the last two weeks with Hubbard sidelined. I view him as an RB2 (albeit a risky one) and Hubbard as a flex/RB3 option. Breece Hall is seeing elite usage with Braelon Allen out, making him a borderline RB1.
Wide Receivers
Jalen Coker returns for the Panthers this week. However, I’d wait a week to see his role before putting the 2024 UDFA into your lineup. In fact, the only Carolina receiver I’d want to play this week is Tetairoa McMillan. The rookie scored his first and second NFL TDs last week and is a backend WR2. With Garrett Wilson doubtful, Jets’ WR1 will likely be Josh Reynolds. Normally, any lead NFL WR is a viable option, but he’s just a risky flex play given Fields’ struggles and the fact that he is Josh Reynolds. Other New York WRs (Arian Smith, Tyler Johnson, or Allen Lazard) are pure dart throws.
Tight Ends
Ja’Tavion Sanders is set to return for the Panthers this week. While the sophomore puts an end to Tommy Tremble’s time as a fantasy-relevant name, he’s only a borderline TE2 himself. Mason Taylor dropped a dud last week, but I’m willing to go back to the well this week with Wilson out. He’s a borderline TE1 or high-end TE2.
DFS Thoughts:
This projects as a slow-paced, low-ceiling game. The Panthers have been quietly competitive in recent weeks, while the Jets remain stagnant offensively — and now they’re without Garrett Wilson, further limiting their already narrow passing tree. The Panthers’ run defense has improved, which works directly against the Jets’ preferred approach of leaning on the ground game and short passes. That setup likely keeps the game slow and methodical, with Carolina able to control the tempo and avoid putting too much on Bryce Young’s shoulders. There’s no strong fantasy angle here — limited pace, no explosive weapons available for the Jets, and uncertain touchdown distribution on the Panthers’ side. Both defenses could generate turnovers, but neither projects as a high-upside DFS defense relative to other spots on the slate. This is a game to stay away from in DFS. It’s unlikely to produce tournament-winning scores, and there are plenty of better environments to target. If anything, it’s a mild Carolina lean straight up — the Panthers should be able to control the game and come out with the win.
Pick’em Winner: Panthers
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Patriots 24.75, Titans 17.75
Ted’s Preview:
Just like that, the Patriots are a powerhouse, capable of earning the second-largest spread of the week. To be fair, that spread is definitely inflated by the fact that they are playing the league’s worst team in the Titans. Will Tennessee get a fired-coach boost with the departure of Brian Callahan? Probably not.
Quarterbacks
Is Drake Maye going to be the first player comped to Josh Allen to actually live up to the comparison? That may be premature, but it’s not too early to say that the second-year QB is a no-doubt fantasy QB1 in this matchup. Cam Ward still has only one double-digit fantasy outing in his NFL career (13 points in Week 3). He’s not playable.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson continues to operate as the Patriots’ clear RB1, with 13 carries on 71% snap share to nine on a 29% share for TreVeyon Henderson last week. However, this matchup is soft enough that they can both be playable. Stevenson is a borderline RB2, while Henderson is an RB3. On the other side, Tyjae Spears outsnapped Tony Pollard last week, although the former Cowboy still saw 10 of the duo’s 15 carries. This offense isn’t good enough to sustain one reliable fantasy RB, let alone two. Pollard is a risky RB3, while Spears is a flex option.
Wide Receivers
If I’m comparing Maye to Allen, then Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Demario Douglas are knockoff versions of Buffalo’s receivers. No member of this trio has a consistent enough role to be a no-doubt starter, but they all have upside while Maye is cooking. Diggs is a high-end WR3, Boutte is a high-upside flex, and Douglas is an ugly flex. Calvin Ridley is set to miss this week for the Titans. That makes Elic Ayomanor a flex option, but it’s possible there just isn’t a fantasy-relevant option on this entire offense.
Tight Ends
His target shares have been lackluster recently as Maye spreads the ball around, but Hunter Henry is still a borderline TE1. With Gunnar Helm cutting slightly into his workload, Chigoziem Okonkwo is a backend TE2 at best.
DFS Thoughts:
There’s a lot of buzz around Mike Vrabel returning to face his former team — and the public narrative will almost certainly frame this as a revenge game. He may indeed lean into that, but he shouldn’t need to run up the score here. The Patriots’ defense should be able to control this game from start to finish. The passing matchup doesn’t project well, and if New England takes an early lead, expect them to keep things on the ground.
With attention on Vrabel and Stefon Diggs, the quieter and likely sharper play is Rhamondre Stevenson plus Patriots Defense as a correlated pairing. We’ve been talking for weeks about wanting to be early on TreVeyon Henderson, but the reality is that Rhamondre isn’t going anywhere. Stevenson remains the clear lead back, yet he’s priced like he’s in a timeshare — that mispricing creates real value in tournaments. In a game where the Patriots are large favorites, his volume floor and TD equity both rise significantly.
Not much to love on the Titans’ side right now. After firing their coach, we’ll see if there’s a schematic spark or more creativity from Cam Ward, but until they show something, it’s a wait-and-see situation. For this week, New England’s defense looks like one of the stronger plays on the slate. My preferred build is Rhamondre Stevenson plus Patriots Defense. Fade the revenge narrative and focus instead on a low-owned, correlated path that fits the game script and pricing inefficiencies.
Pick’em Winner: Patriots
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Giants 16.75, Broncos 23.75
Ted’s Preview:
This is an interesting one. The Giants had a signature win last week, while the Broncos played a disgusting game against the Jets. But the betting markets still clearly believe more in Bo Nix and Co. than Jaxson Dart and Skattebo. Don’t take this as me disagreeing — they’re probably right.
Quarterbacks
On the bright side, Jaxson Dart has averaged over 20 points per start, with at least 50 rushing yards in each. On the pessimistic side, the Giants’ total is tied for the lowest of the slate, and most projection systems have him closer to outside the top 20 QBs than inside the top 10. Put it all together, and he’s a high-upside/low-floor QB2. Bo Nix is almost the opposite. He hasn’t been very impressive this season, but he projects well in this matchup. He’s a borderline QB1.
Running Backs
Like his quarterback, Cam Skattebo has momentum and hype on his side, even if the numbers are against him. Luckily, a mid-range RB2 is an infinitely more valuable option than a mid-range QB2. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins is also a mid-range RB2 — he is still successfully holding off RJ Harvey, who is just a dart-throw flex option.
Wide Receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson continues to see excellent usage with Malik Nabers out for the year. He is a WR3, with more of a ceiling than you might assume, as he proved last week. Former Bronco Lil’Jordan Humphrey was New York’s other starting WR last week — he is a very, very deep flex option. Courtland Sutton has had some ups and downs so far this season, but he still slots in as a solid WR2 for this week. Troy Franklin, on the other hand, unfortunately saw his usage trend in the wrong direction last week. That pushes him back down to the range of pure flex options.
Tight Ends
Theo Johnson is a real part of the Giants’ offense. If they were better, he could push for TE1 consideration. As is, he’s a middling TE2. Evan Engram posted by far his season high with a 20% target share last week, although his route participation rate was still miserable (46%). He’s more of a borderline TE2.
DFS Thoughts:
This game has ugly written all over it. The Giants are not as good as their perception after last week’s win over Philadelphia — that result is inflating their reputation more than their actual performance. The Broncos’ defense remains underrated, especially relative to how the public still views them from early-season struggles. From a DFS perspective, this game profiles as slow, physical, and mistake-prone — ideal for targeting defense, not offensive stacks.
I’m hoping some of the public leans into the Giants, chasing last week’s outcome. If that happens, it gives us leverage by avoiding them completely or by pivoting to the Denver defense. The recent Giants win might suppress defensive ownership enough that we can get the Broncos’ D/ST at a discount compared to where they should be priced and rostered. Late-week ownership projections will determine final exposure, but Denver D/ST fits perfectly into correlated builds with other defensive pairings — whether that’s Chiefs D, Judkins plus Browns D, or Rhamondre plus Patriots D from other spots on the slate.
While J.K. Dobbins remains the lead back over RJ Harvey, this backfield is still too much of a timeshare for me to want exposure. The matchup vs. the Giants is solid, but there are better running back options on the slate with clearer workloads. If you do take a shot, pair either RB with the Denver defense for correlation — never as a standalone play.
My primary stance is to fade the Giants offense entirely. My preferred play is Broncos D/ST, potentially paired with a Denver RB for game-script correlation. Expect the Giants to come crashing back to earth, making this a sneaky spot for the Denver defense to shine.
Pick’em Winner: Broncos
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Colts 23.50, Chargers 25.00
Ted’s Preview:
As evidenced by the healthy totals on both sides, this has the potential to be one of the most fun games of the week. The Colts’ offense has been one of the league’s best this season. Meanwhile, their defense is dealing with a rash of secondary injuries, which fits perfectly with LA’s pass-happy approach. Can Danny Dimes keep up if he’s forced to drop back early and often?
Quarterbacks
If he is dropping back early and often, Daniel Jones could be in for a solid fantasy outing. He’s relied heavily on his legs for fantasy production so far this season, but that has more to do with a lack of passing volume than passing efficiency. He’s a backend QB1. Justin Herbert has provided a high floor, but he hasn’t actually scored even 19 fantasy points since Week 1. Given Indianapolis’ issues in the secondary, he has a great chance to break that streak this week. He’s also a backend QB1, just a few notches above Jones.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor is an absolute monster, and you don’t need me to tell you he should be started in all formats. Unless your roster is stacked, Kimani Vidal is also probably a must-start, too. He was the Chargers’ clear RB1 last week in Omarion Hampton’s absence and projects as a solid RB2 in this matchup.
Wide Receivers
Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin will both be unavailable for the Colts this week. That means we should see Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce in two-WR sets, with the mercurial Adonai Mitchell as the third WR. Pittman is a backend WR2, while the other two are high-variance flex options (especially Mitchell, who I really only mention because he is genuinely very talented when he can keep his head screwed on straight). Meanwhile, it’s anyone’s guess which of the Chargers’ receivers is the best play now that they are all healthy … but they’re all good plays. I can’t stress enough how many cornerback injuries the Colts are dealing with — Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen could all have big games, and they all project as WR2 options.
Tight Ends
Tyler Warren is a no-doubt elite tight end, and he might even push Trey McBride for the top spot in my rankings with Downs sidelined. It was very encouraging to see Oronde Gadsden II rack up eight targets on a 69% route participation rate even with Will Dissly back last week. However, with QJ also back this week, he’s just a TE2.
DFS Thoughts:
In early lineup builds, I found myself leaving $1,500–$2,000 of salary on the table even when satisfied with my running backs. That setup naturally tempts a move up to Jonathan Taylor, who profiles as one of the best ceiling upgrades on the slate. This matchup has quiet shootout potential — both teams allow opponents to move the ball between the 20s but tend to tighten in the red zone. If we get early explosive plays or short-field touchdowns, this game could easily outperform expectations. I expect the Colts to win a close one, but with enough back-and-forth scoring to make it DFS-relevant.
Jonathan Taylor is the clear focal point if attacking this game. His snap share and usage trends point upward, and this matchup fits his strengths. I’m not eager to attack the Colts passing game — volume is spread out, and ceiling outcomes rely on Taylor setting up scoring drives. For a bring-back, I’m most interested in Quentin Johnston — the big-play tournament pivot. He’s coming off injury, which introduces risk, but that same uncertainty should keep ownership low. If he’s fully active, he could see enough downfield opportunities to deliver tournament-winning upside. If Johnston’s status remains unclear, Keenan Allen or Ladd McConkey are the safer options, though with lower relative leverage. I’m avoiding the Chargers’ running game — usage is fragmented and efficiency remains poor.
My preferred build is Jonathan Taylor plus Quentin Johnston, or Allen/McConkey if injury risk persists. Game stance is a slight lean toward the Colts in a competitive, potentially high-scoring matchup. If early pace and efficiency click, this game could sneak into the top scoring tier of the slate.
Pick’em Winner: Colts
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Packers 25.50, Cardinals 19.00
Ted’s Preview:
We still don’t know if Kyler Murray will overcome his foot injury to suit up for the Cardinals or we will get another week of Jacoby Brissett under center … but does it really matter? The Cardinals have only played close games, but they have also lost four straight in uninspiring fashion. Meanwhile, the Packers seem like one of the best teams in the league, but they don’t play a style conducive to racking up fantasy points (aside from Josh Jacobs). The numbers here aren’t bad, but I struggle to get excited about this one.
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love has been very efficient this season, but he doesn’t get volume unless the Packers are forced to pass. That seems unlikely in this one, so he’s only a borderline QB1. If he plays, Kyler Murray is a high-end QB2. If he doesn’t, Jacoby Brissett is an uninspiring option, even coming off a solid week. This Packers defense is still a tough matchup, even if they have slowed down after a dominant start to the season.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs is a must-start RB1 every single week, doubly so in this soft matchup. Emari Demercado is out for the Cardinals, so we should get a second week of Bam Knight as the early-down lead and Michael Carter as the preferred pass-catching option. Neither is a particularly appealing option as anything more than backend RB3/flex plays.
Wide Receivers
As mentioned, the Packers don’t seem to pass the ball unless they have to. That makes their receivers far less appealing than they might otherwise be. Romeo Doubs has by far the most consistent role, so he’s a high-end WR3. Matthew Golden is also a WR3, but on the lower end and with higher volatility. Dontayvion Wicks hurt his ankle last week. If he’s active, he’s a deep flex option. If not, you can consider Malik Heath as an even deeper option. Surprisingly, Marvin Harrison Jr. has cleared concussion protocol and will be able to play in this one. He’s a WR3, and I’m not sure it even matters who his QB is. With MHJ’s return, I’m not interested in any of Zay Jones, Michael Wilson, or Greg Dortch.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft also suffers from the Packers’ conservative offense, but he is still a solid TE1. Trey McBride is an elite option.
DFS Thoughts:
Similar to last week, I still don’t love targeting the Cardinals, but the switch to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback at least gives them a better chance to stay competitive — and maybe even push the Packers into a mild shootout. That said, neither team wants to play fast. Both prefer a ball-control approach, and that’s likely what we’ll see again here. Expect heavy doses of Josh Jacobs, along with Tucker Kraft and Matthew Golden on the Packers’ side. The problem is volume — none of these players project for the type of usage that would consistently pay off their salaries unless the game unexpectedly opens up. With both teams favoring slower tempos, it’s unlikely to become a DFS difference-maker.
The simplest and most logical build is Josh Jacobs paired with the Packers’ defense — a correlated story that fits both teams’ preferred game scripts. This combo covers the grind-it-out version of the game while providing turnover and touchdown equity through correlation. There’s always a small chance that Brissett sparks a back-and-forth, especially if the Cardinals find early success through the air. If you want to tell that story in a secondary or tertiary lineup, you could build a full game stack with Jordan Love plus Tucker Kraft plus Matthew Golden, with a Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr. bring-back on the other side. You could even double up at tight end with Love plus Kraft plus McBride to exploit pricing flexibility and differentiation.
Most likely outcome is a slower-paced, lower-scoring game where everyone does fine but not great. My primary build is Josh Jacobs plus Packers D/ST. Secondary build would be a full game stack for large-field GPPs only — betting on the rare scenario where Brissett turns this into a shootout.
Pick’em Winner: Packers
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Commanders 26.75, Cowboys 27.75
Ted’s Preview:
Wow. This isn’t just the fantasy game of the week; it might be the game of the season. We have two great (if not elite) offenses facing two bad (if not terrible) defenses. That’s a recipe for some absolute fantasy fireworks.
Quarterbacks
Given that game environment, both Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott are undeniable QB1s. Unless you’ve got another elite option, they should be in your lineup.
Running Backs
The same applies to the lead running backs in this game, Javonte Williams and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Williams has dominated the Cowboys’ backfield all season, and JCM has recently separated himself as the Commanders’ clear RB1 (don’t be fooled by his stat line from last week). They should both be in lineups, with Williams a solid RB1 and Croskey-Merritt on the border.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin is out for at least one more week. Adding injury to injury, there seems to be a real chance that Deebo Samuel will also be unavailable. If Deebo is in, he’s a must-start backend WR1 in this matchup. If he’s out, someone else will probably have at least a usable game … but who? Chris Moore has consistently been the team’s second WR (with McLaurin out) in routes, but he has just six catches in five weeks. Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane have been more efficient on a per-route basis (especially McCaffrey), but neither has reached even a 50% route participation rate in a single game. All three would be boom/bust flex options if Samuel is sidelined, thanks to the good matchup. If Deebo is in, I would recommend avoiding them all, although there is still upside here. Things are simpler on the Cowboys’ side. CeeDee Lamb is back, so he and George Pickens are must-starts. No one else is playable unless you want to punt on Jalen Tolbert in a very deep league.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson’s reign of terror as a truly elite fantasy TE is likely ending with Lamb’s return, but he’s still a solid TE1. Zach Ertz is more of a borderline starter, although he will jump up a few slots if Deebo is indeed out.
DFS Thoughts:
When there’s one game that clearly stands above the rest as the slate’s premier scoring environment, we know two things — it’s going to carry heavy ownership, and we can profit either by leaning all the way in or fading it completely.
I’ll start by embracing the chalk and building around it intelligently. Dak Prescott plus CeeDee Lamb as the foundation. Add a piece like Jake Ferguson, or correlate with bring-backs such as George Pickens or Javonte Williams in cross-game builds. On the Washington side, the natural returns are Jacory Croskey-Merritt and possibly Deebo Samuel if active. With Terry McLaurin ruled out, volume condenses. If both Deebo and Zach Ertz miss, that could funnel even more usage to Merritt or even Christian McCaffrey on short work if active. My core stack will likely be Dak plus Lamb plus Merritt, then I’ll see what secondary pieces make sense from there.
I’m not avoiding Lamb due to ownership — this is the kind of spot where you accept that a few of your players will be popular and get unique elsewhere. It only takes one low-owned piece to separate a lineup at the top. Both running backs are viable in this matchup as well. Builds like Javonte Williams plus Merritt or Dak plus Javonte plus Lamb tell strong, correlated stories.
You can also start with Jayden Daniels. With McLaurin out and the Cowboys’ pass rush likely collapsing the pocket, Daniels’ rushing upside could spike. Because of limited healthy receiving options, you can play him naked without a stack partner or with Ertz as a short-yardage correlation. A full-game stack could be Daniels plus Ertz with Javonte plus Lamb on the other side. I expect Daniels to carry higher ownership because of that rushing floor, so my personal lean is toward Dak stacks given the Commanders’ receiver injuries.
For every lineup I overstack this game, I’ll build a secondary lineup that fades it entirely. Intra-division familiarity in NFC East games often leads to underwhelming pace and scoring, and this could be one of those spots. If the game disappoints, those fade lineups gain immediate leverage on a massive portion of the field.
My primary build is Dak plus Lamb plus Merritt, with Ferguson or a contrarian secondary piece. Alternative is Daniels-led stack with Ertz, or naked Daniels. Game expectation is I like the Cowboys to win and the game to shoot out, but I’ll also have complete-fade builds to cover the downside. Until further notice, the plan remains simple — attack the Cowboys in DFS until they prove they can stop anyone.
Pick’em Winner: Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Falcons 22.50, 49ers 24.50
Ted’s Preview:
The 49ers just keep losing players to injury, as All-World linebacker Fred Warner joined the long list of stars already sidelined for San Francisco last week. They do get some relief in the form of George Kittle returning this week, but Mac Jones will still be under center. Meanwhile, the Falcons just recorded a statement win over the Bills. Even on the road, it’s a bit surprising that they are underdogs here.
Quarterbacks
Michael Penix Jr. hasn’t scored 20 points since Week 1; he has more single-digit outings over his last four than games above 15 points. He’s an uninspiring backend QB2. Mac Jones might genuinely be a more exciting option, but this Atlanta defense has quietly been excellent. With that in mind, the former Patriot is also just one of many backend QB2 options.
Running Backs
What this game lacks in fantasy quarterback firepower, it makes up for at running back. Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey are both elite RB1 options every single week. Behind them, Tyler Allgeier is a playable flex in a pinch, but Brian Robinson is not.
Wide Receivers
Coming off a game in which he was essentially the Falcons’ entire passing offense, Drake London is a no-doubt must-start. However, that could change this week if Darnell Mooney returns. Mooney, who appears to be genuinely questionable, averaged a 22% target share in his two healthy games and would be a flex option if he is active. For the 49ers, Ricky Pearsall is out again, while Jauan Jennings does not have an injury designation despite having been listed with ankle, rib, and shoulder injuries as recently as Thursday. Given his lack of designation, I’m tempted to run it back with Jennings as a solid play, but he’s probably just a flex. Kendrick Bourne, on the other hand, has earned consideration as a backend WR3, at least.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts continues to quietly post elite participation rates in Atlanta’s offense, making him a borderline TE1. George Kittle is reportedly without limitations for his first game back, so he is straight back to being an elite, must-start TE.
DFS Thoughts:
No DFS notes — save for Showdown later.
Pick’em Winner: 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Buccaneers 23.50, Lions 29.00
Ted’s Preview:
If it weren’t for the madness of the Cowboys/Commanders matchup, this showdown of NFC contenders would boast easily the highest total of the weekend. The Lions will be looking to bounce back after being handled by the Chiefs last Sunday night, while Baker Mayfield is deservedly the current MVP favorite.
Quarterbacks
Even with essentially no weapons left (depending on Mike Evans’ status), Baker Mayfield has been playing so well that he is a solid QB1. This is especially true in a game where he will likely be trailing against a banged-up Detroit secondary. I’m a little less enthusiastic about Jared Goff, who has been thoroughly mediocre outside of a massive Week 2 outing. But given Detroit’s massive total and Tampa’s beatable defense, it’s hard to deny him as a backend QB1.
Running Backs
At this point, Rachaad White is undeniably a must-start as long as Bucky Irving remains out. This matchup isn’t ideal, but it’s not terrible, and his usage has been elite to go with improved efficiency. He’s a borderline RB1 or a high-end RB2 at worst. For the Lions, Jahmyr Gibbs is still a no-brainer RB1 every week. We need to think a little harder about David Montgomery, who only saw four carries last week. However, given that the Lions are heavy favorites and Dan Campbell mentioned wanting to get the veteran more involved, this is not the week to worry about him. He’s a borderline RB2.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans, who has missed the last few weeks with a hamstring issue, missed practice on Friday. However, given that the Buccs play on Monday, that Friday practice was the equivalent of a Thursday, which the veteran usually takes off. I expect Evans to play, in which case he is a borderline WR1 as the only man left standing in Tampa’s WR room. After Evans, the Buccaneers’ top receivers should be veteran Sterling Shepard and rookie Tez Johnson. With how well Baker has been playing, they are both flex options. For the Lions, things are as they always are. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a must-start WR1, and Jameson Williams is a high-variance borderline WR2.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton moves up the pecking order with all of Tampa Bay’s WR injuries, landing as a solid TE2. After three straight weeks below 15%, Sam LaPorta has had at least a 21% target share in each of the last two weeks, solidifying himself as a TE1.
DFS Thoughts:
No DFS notes — save for Showdown later.
Pick’em Winner: Lions
Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks
Monday, 10:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Texans 19.25, Seahawks 22.25
Ted’s Preview:
Maybe Sam Darnold wasn’t a Kevin O’Connell merchant after all, as he has been excellent in the first six weeks of his Seattle career. However, Houston’s defense is arguably the best in the league, so this is a tough spot for the entire Seahawks offense. Meanwhile, the Texans posted back-to-back dominant wins prior to their Week 6 bye. Have they actually turned a corner, or are the Titans and Lamar Jackson-less Ravens just that bad?
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud projects as a solid QB2 this week, but I’m still a little skeptical. Prior to dominating Baltimore in Week 5, he had averaged an ugly 13.9 points per game … pretty similar to the 13.7 he averaged last season. He’ll probably land as a backend QB2 in my final rankings. That will put him just behind Sam Darnold, who does have a brutal matchup but has at least played well this season.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb outscored Woody Marks the last time we saw Houston play, but the rookie is clearly the back to target in this backfield at this point. With that said, he’s still just an RB3, and Chubb isn’t too far behind as a flex option. Meanwhile, the Seahawks continue to prioritize Zach Charbonnet over Kenneth Walker, much to the chagrin of fantasy managers. Especially given the bad matchup, it’s hard to get behind either as more than an RB3, although Walker’s explosiveness still gives him the edge.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins is a borderline WR1, with upside for more depending on the availability of Seattle’s many injured cornerbacks. After him, however, there’s very little to like about Houston’s WR room. Xavier Hutchinson and Christian Kirk are running the most routes (although neither reached even 65% participation in Week 5), making them deep flex options. The rookie duo of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are each barely involved enough to qualify as dart throws. For Seattle, it’s all about Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who has ascended as a truly elite WR1. Cooper Kupp is just involved enough to still be a flex option, while Tory Horton is a dart throw (a much better dart throw than his Houston rookie counterparts, to be clear).
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz‘s involvement in Houston’s offense really isn’t that bad, but his production has been. He’s a borderline TE2. Elijah Arroyo is taking enough routes from AJ Barner that neither is a particularly appealing option.
DFS Thoughts:
No DFS notes — save for Showdown later.
Pick’em Winner: Seahawks
Lineup Building and Strategy
What I’m wanting coming in is based on attacking the highest-scoring game environment of the week with the Cowboys and Commanders, while using leverage pieces in other spots to differentiate. I like the idea of starting with Dak Prescott and building around him with CeeDee Lamb and Jacory Croskey-Merritt as my core pieces from that game. From there, I’m looking to add running back stability with players like Quinshon Judkins and correlation plays like Darren Waller to get different from the field.
Ownership & Pricing Review
FanDuel Ownership Review:
At quarterback, no big surprises with Jayden Daniels at the top alongside Patrick Mahomes. Dak sits in the top five, cheaper than Daniels, and available at half the ownership. I’m going to start both my FanDuel and probably DraftKings lineups with Dak. If we’re looking for something a little more off the radar, we’ve got Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Spencer Rattler way down in a scary but decent matchup, Jacoby Brissett, and Dillon Gabriel all the way down to $6,500. Again, in a pretty good matchup where you could do a lot with those salary savings.
At running back, I see Breece Hall around 30% ownership. This I don’t understand at all. Carolina’s been decent against the run. I know without Garrett Wilson, the theory is they’re going to lean on Breece Hall, but Carolina knows that also, and the Jets are generally a mess. I think this is an easy fade for me. Quinshon Judkins is also up there around 30%. I wish he was lower owned. I still may have him, but I do wish he was a little bit lower owned here. We’re also going to keep an eye on the weather for tomorrow. But the weather impacts, if it’s bad, should also lean toward Judkins. I will probably keep Judkins in at that ownership level and just pivot to get some ownership leverage by adding Darren Waller on the other side. Jacory Croskey-Merritt at around 20% is my other lock at RB this week. I’d much rather start with the Dak side of things and come back with Jacory Croskey-Merritt given the inability of the Cowboys to stop anyone in the running game. Jonathan Taylor coming in just cracking the top five, very expensive, but we know he’s been putting up 3x that number relatively consistently. Kimani Vidal cracks the top ten coming in around 12% owned. That’s pretty solid. We didn’t talk about him a lot in the write-up. I’m not going to go there, but it’s not a bad play. I don’t think what he did last week was a fluke, so you could go back there. I don’t really want to go there against the Colts, but it is a high projected game, so you definitely could go there. Javonte Williams has a decent matchup against the Commanders. If you don’t want to go to the Dak side, you want to get a little bit of leverage, or if you want to overstack. Saquon coming in around 10%, Josh Jacobs only around 10%. Those are two really nice pivots away, particularly Josh Jacobs — nice pivots away from Jonathan Taylor at a little higher ownership and higher price if you’re looking to pay up for someone. Rhamondre Stevenson coming in around 5%. He’s not as sneaky as I was hoping he would be, but that’s still solid ownership at $5,700. I’d much rather go to $5,700 Rhamondre than I would $6,200 Kimani Vidal, especially at lower ownership.
At wide receiver, no major surprises at the top with CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Deebo, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Stefon Diggs, and Rome Odunze all coming in. Lamb starts up around 30%, then you’ve got Olave and Rice around 20–25%, then you get 15–20% for Deebo, Diggs, Odunze, and Pickens. I’m a little surprised that CeeDee Lamb is so high in his first game back, but the game environment warrants it, and the game does set up better for Lamb than it does for Pickens. Pickens has a little more touchdown potential, so you could look at Pickens on FanDuel if you want. I’m actually probably going to play Dak alone on FanDuel because the pricing on Lamb and Pickens both seem a little high for me, and Dak can spread it around. So with Lamb back, you may not see any of the key players — Lamb, Pickens, or Ferguson — get a score that pays off for you. Lamb feels a little cheaper on DraftKings, so I probably will go with Dak and Lamb on DraftKings, but I’ll go a little bit different and play Dak alone I think on FanDuel.
Olave, not surprising anyone, he is cheaper and he is in a good matchup, but there are weather concerns and it is still Spencer Rattler at quarterback, so I’m a little surprised by this. I don’t have a ton of comfort playing him at 25%, although I did have him in my early builds. I’ll have to play around with this a little bit and see where else I can pivot. Keenan Allen cracking the top 10. I like that better on DraftKings. His price is good here, but he should get a lot of volume in a high-scoring game, but I do like that better on DraftKings. Justin Jefferson coming in around 10%, very expensive, but that’s a really nice leverage play away from if you’re going away from Lamb or you’re going away from Pickens, some of the other higher priced wide receivers. You can get some nice leverage there. You can get Xavier Worthy at $7,000 for about 5%. Compare that to Rashee Rice at $7,500 and 25%. That to me is a tremendous leverage spot. If you’re thinking about playing Rashee Rice, I would pivot to Xavier Worthy, get the leverage. He’s proven this season. Rashee Rice, from all accounts we know, is totally healthy and looking good, and they do want to run the offense through him, but again, they don’t need to. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s used a little bit more as a decoy this week, or they get him some really nice plays to get him going, but then they don’t overuse him this week.
Quentin Johnston at $7,200 coming in around 5%. That’s a really nice play assuming his health. Let’s check in on it today and tomorrow to make sure, but especially if you can squeeze in Jonathan Taylor, he’s a nice one on the other side there. Again, we’ve got Keenan Allen around 15% owned and we’ve got Quentin Johnston around 5% owned, especially on FanDuel where he’s the bigger play threat. I like that a lot. Jordan Addison at $6,100 coming in really cheap. Adonai Mitchell coming in at $4,500 around 1% ownership. I know he’s in the doghouse, but Josh Downs is out, Ashton Dulin is out. They might just be forced to play him this week, and in a high-scoring back-and-forth game, if you don’t get to Jonathan Taylor, Adonai Mitchell makes a lot of sense as a cheap leverage play. We talked about Luther Burden a little bit. He’s down about 1%, even if DJ Moore plays, I don’t mind him at $4,900 and only 1% owned. Courtland Sutton at $7,700 coming in around 3%. A quiet, low-owned leverage option. It’s likely a low-scoring game, but Sutton has a strong individual matchup and red-zone involvement. He’s not a core play, but at 3% ownership he makes plenty of sense as a one-off tournament pivot. He’s the last name that really draws my attention, so I think we do have some really solid low-owned leverage plays this week on FanDuel.
At tight end, when I’m looking at this, what really jumps out is Travis Kelce’s price. He’s $5,800. Michael Mayer is $5,100, Ertz $5,100, Harold Fannin $5,500, Oronde Gadsden $5,200. That’s pretty close in price to Kelce in a week where everybody’s flocking toward Rashee Rice. Travis Kelce gives us a lot of touchdown potential on FanDuel. He makes a lot of sense to stack with Mahomes or even a Mahomes and Xavier Worthy lineup. The others make sense — Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Trey McBride all coming in around 15%, the same ownership percentage as Kelce. It’s pretty spread out at the top so you don’t get a ton of ownership leverage, but you can get a lot of leverage by playing Kelce instead of Rashee Rice. Jake Ferguson’s back down to around less than 5%. If Lamb isn’t fully back into the mix, Ferguson could still get a lot of work at low ownership in the highest scoring game environment of the week, so that could make a lot of sense. And then I have to go down to around 0% to find Darren Waller, so I will probably be playing Darren Waller to get the differentiation with all the Quinshon Judkins lineups. Again, Waller’s playing a lot like a wide receiver these days, and in a game that could be more back-and-forth and more competitive than people expect.
On defense on FanDuel, Denver stands out as the top pick in ownership coming around 15%. I like the Chiefs at under 10%. The Patriots because of their price are only showing around 5%. I like the option of paying up for them and getting some differentiation. Green Bay coming in even lower. We talked about them, especially if you’re going to pair them with Josh Jacobs. They could be a nice pairing.
DraftKings Ownership Review:
Shifting to DraftKings at quarterback, not a lot of surprises. It looks pretty similar. Got Jayden Daniels, Dak a little higher, Mahomes, Justin Herbert. And again, if we look down into the less than 5% range, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, even Drake Maye, Spencer Rattler. I didn’t make note of Stefon Diggs’s ownership on FanDuel. I’ll make note of it on DraftKings, as he’s projected to be pretty popular. So it’s surprising that Drake Maye is carrying such low ownership. I’m pretty intrigued by Carson Wentz at $5,000. Again, that game should be a little bit slower, but the price is pretty solid, especially if you go with a leverage play and get Justin Jefferson into the lineup. Dillon Gabriel at $4,400. That’s significant salary savings, and he is running the offense well enough to be able to put up the 16 points you need here.
On DraftKings, Stefon Diggs is projected to be much more popular than he was on FanDuel. That makes pairing Drake Maye at sub-5% ownership with Diggs a sharp contrarian correlation — same game environment, but very different ownership dynamics.
At running back, I’m again surprised to see Breece Hall so high. Not surprised to see Quinshon Judkins and Jacory Croskey-Merritt up there. Taylor, even at his price, gets up there. Achane, Javonte Williams, Kimani Vidal, Josh Jacobs. We get down to the next tier, starting at 10% and under, you get to Saquon, J.K. Dobbins. Rhamondre coming in under 5%. It doesn’t seem like there are as many slam dunk running back plays this week. So I’ll probably eat the chalk with Quinshon Judkins and Jacory Croskey-Merritt and again get a little bit different by adding Darren Waller at tight end, starting with Dak on the other side of things.
At wide receiver, we see a little bit different than on FanDuel. At the top, we see Lamb, Rashee Rice, Olave still, but we see Justin Jefferson jump into the top five at around 20% ownership. That makes sense, but he’s also a big play guy, so I think he’s viable on both sides. And if you get him on FanDuel at a lot lower ownership, I think that’s a nice leverage play. We see Pickens coming in around half the ownership of CeeDee Lamb. Pickens is just as capable of having another big game. The environment does set up a little bit better for Lamb, but Lamb could be used just to free things up for Pickens a little bit more this week. And Pickens does have a little bigger red zone role. Deebo’s not quite as high on DraftKings. Part of his value is some of that running work he gets, making him a little bit more valuable on FanDuel. Courtland Sutton quite a bit higher on DraftKings than on FanDuel in terms of ownership. Quentin Johnston still low. Stefon Diggs coming in surprisingly low. I thought there would be much more narrative around the Mike Vrabel going back to Tennessee. I’ll probably play it on the Rhamondre side, but you definitely could go back to Drake Maye and Stefon Diggs here at their ownership. They’re a nice leverage play. Xavier Worthy again really low owned. He’s coming in at the same ownership as Adonai Mitchell. So let that sink in with what the presence of Rashee Rice is doing, and it’s all out of hope and a prayer.
It’s worth noting that Kansas City typically starts slow in recent seasons — both offensively and in terms of player rhythm. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mahomes and Rice aren’t fully in sync right away. Rice might need a week or two to get reacclimated, especially coming off injury. That makes this an easy ownership fade for me — I’ll take the leverage with Xavier Worthy or go back to Travis Kelce instead.
On DraftKings at tight end, Tyler Warren at the top, no big surprise. McBride’s up there. Zach Ertz is a little higher here. He’s priced at only $3,800. And with McLaurin out and Deebo banged up, he makes a lot of sense. He’s coming in as the third most owned tight end, just a little over 10%. Kelce’s down under 10%. Tucker Kraft under 10%. Harold Fannin, also cheap with Njoku out, he’s in a good spot here coming in under 10%. Jake Ferguson down under 3%. Dallas Goedert’s been getting a lot of work and a lot of touchdowns. He’s under 3%. Hunter Henry, we know Maye wants to spread it around, but if you’re going to tell the story that Vrabel pours it on, Maye plus Diggs plus Hunter Henry is a nice really low-owned stack. And then we get Darren Waller down at $3,100 at 1% ownership. I’m going to take that all day in this matchup given the role he’s had.
DraftKings are pretty similar on defense. The Broncos are up there. I like the Patriots and Chiefs coming in around 5% ownership. And Green Bay coming in near the bottom of the list at around 2%. They’re priced up there, but they could be in a nice spot this week too.
Where I’m Landing
After looking at ownership and pricing across both sites, I’m prioritizing a few key builds. My core on both FanDuel and DraftKings will start with Dak Prescott. On DraftKings, I’ll pair him with CeeDee Lamb, but on FanDuel, I’m more inclined to play Dak alone given Lamb and Pickens’ inflated pricing. I’m eating the chalk with Quinshon Judkins and Jacory Croskey-Merritt at running back — both are in the right game environments and have clear paths to 20-plus touches.
The differentiation comes at tight end with Darren Waller at near-zero ownership. He’s playing like a wide receiver in Miami’s short passing game, and if the Browns-Dolphins game stays competitive despite the weather, he could post a slate-breaking score that almost nobody will have. This pairing with Judkins creates a nice correlation story while getting completely different from the field.
I’m also looking at leverage plays like Xavier Worthy over Rashee Rice, Justin Jefferson on FanDuel where his ownership is significantly lower than on DraftKings, and Quentin Johnston as a big-play option in the Colts-Chargers game. I like the Rhamondre Stevenson plus Patriots Defense pairing as a low-owned correlation, and Josh Jacobs plus Packers Defense if I want to tell a grind-it-out low-owned game story.
