Sometimes the games that project as low‑scoring and defensive turn into the ones that decide the slate. Steelers–Jets jumped from one of the lowest projected totals to the highest scoring game last week, which is exactly why I like to keep one YOLO build around that least‑likely environment. I didn’t play it last week, but when the slate is low‑scoring overall, one surprise shootout can carry you to the top.

Aaron Rodgers reminded us of this as well. He came out and threw four touchdowns – because why wouldn’t he, after going nearly undrafted in season‑long drafts. He spreads it around so much that the Tom Brady treatment is the way to go: just play him naked. We’ll still sprinkle in some DK Metcalf, but there’s no need to force a stack partner.

Our main stack with Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., and Brenton Strange was directionally correct, and we even mentioned that Carolina didn’t have a worthy bring‑back. Unfortunately, Jacksonville never had to press, and the passing game didn’t hit the totals we needed. On the other hand, Deebo Samuel did exactly what we expected, with heavy targets and a rushing score. He’s being used in San Francisco the same way, and while he likely won’t stay low‑owned, he remains someone to target depending on matchup.

Our secondary Tampa Bay over‑stack cashed last week – not a smash, but it did its job.

The field is sharper on bounce‑backs. Lawrence should be popular this week against Cincinnati in a game with shootout potential. In the past that might have been sneaky – now the field is there. When that happens, you either fade the game or over‑stack it.

We were on Dobbins as the Denver RB to have last week, but as we move forward it’s trending toward a split with him and R.J. Harvey. Keon Coleman already looks like Buffalo’s WR1, and if his price lags behind his role for another week, we’ll take advantage.

We were on the right side with Miami. We weren’t convinced they’d be very good, but we still took a low‑owned swing on Tyreek Hill because the ceiling is there. DFS isn’t about what we think will happen – it’s about what could happen. Week 2 is when I start applying the bounce‑back lens. If everyone piles on Travis Etienne, that gives me another reason to circle back to Trevor Lawrence – ownership attention will tell us where to push.

With that in mind, I like Jaguars–Bengals this week. I expect Jacksonville to jump out early and Cincinnati to keep pace, which Carolina couldn’t. On DraftKings, that nudges me toward Chase Brown for a bring‑back because of the receiving; on FanDuel I lean Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. But it’s early, let’s see where our mind takes us as we move through the games below, consider pricing and ownership, and settle on a final stack.

Reminder: Ted will give you what is most likely to happen and I’ll be focusing on what could happen.

Game Overviews

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bills 26.5, Jets 20.5

Have Tanner Engstrand and the Jets finally been the team to build an offense catered to Justin Fields’ strengths? So far, the offensive results for New York have been positive. Meanwhile, their once-elite defense got lit up by Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith, so it’s unlikely they’ll stand much chance against Josh Allen. The big question for this one is whether Fields and Co. can keep rolling enough to force the Bills to put up points. 

Quarterbacks

Obviously, Josh Allen is a must-start. After his big game last week, Justin Fields may be trending in that direction as well. Especially given that Buffalo’s defense allowed Lamar Jackson to get loose for 70 yards and a TD on the ground last week, Fields is a backend QB1, albeit a volatile one, this week.

Running Backs

Neither James Cook nor Breece Hall is a true bell cow – they were both below a 60% snap share in Week 1. But they also both finished with over 15 Half-PPR points, making the most of their opportunities. They are both high-end RB2s this week. Although they will be involved, you would have to be desperate to start any of Braelon Allen, Ty Johnson, Isaiah Davis, or Ray Davis in this one. 

Wide Receivers

If it wasn’t already clear that Garrett Wilson was the only Jets receiver worth considering, the fact that Josh Reynolds is likely to be absent makes it even clearer. Even Wilson is just a WR2 – his target share is elite, but his actual total volume is capped by the fact that New York’s passing volume will compete to be the lowest in the league this season. On the Bills’ side, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Josh Palmer are all viable plays, in that order. Whether they are WR3s or TD-dependent flexes will depend on how many times Josh Allen is forced to drop back. 

Tight Ends

Mason Taylor was the Jets’ clear lead tight end in his NFL debut, with a solid 80% route participation rate. But, again because of the Jets’ overall low volume, that was just 20 routes, and he saw only one target. He’s a TE2 this week. At this point, the same is true of Dalton Kincaid, who did score a touchdown in Week 1 but posted just a 9% target share on a 56% route participation rate. 

DFS Thoughts:

We were high on Keon Coleman coming into the season and he did show well, but that was in an out‑sized game environment. I’m not expecting a repeat against the Jets, so I’m staying away from both sides and letting others chase last week’s points. Justin Fields showed the kind of rushing profile that can win slates – not this week for me, but he stays on the radar.

Pick’em Winner: Bills.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Bears 20.5, Lions 26.5

This is the Ben Johnson Bowl. On one side, Caleb Williams will try to bounce back from a 2025 debut in which he flashed his extraordinary talent but also showed the same accuracy issues he had as a rookie. On the other side, the Lions need to bounce back from putting up just 13 points in Week 1, fewer than they scored in any game last season. In Detroit’s defense, there’s a chance based on last night that Green Bay’s defense is just that good. But if they put up another stinker here, it’s time to start really worrying how a mediocre offense will feed all its highly drafted mouths. 

Quarterbacks

Thanks to adding 58 yards and a TD on the ground, Caleb Williams actually had a solid fantasy outing in Week 1, but it wasn’t pretty. He’s still more of a QB2 than anything else. The same applies to Jared Goff, who will hopefully bounce back in his dome, sweet dome. 

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift’s final stat line wasn’t anything to write home about, but his Week 1 workload was immaculate. He’s an RB2 on volume alone. For Detroit, Jahmyr Gibbs is still a must-start – he saw a whopping 10 targets last week. I’m a little worried about David Montgomery, whose role is particularly susceptible to a potential offense-wide regression. He’s on the border between RB2 and RB3; not someone you have to start if you have better options.

Wide Receivers

Rome Odunze arguably served as the Bears’ WR1 last week. But D.J. Moore still led the team in both air yards and receiving yards. They are both WR3s, with high ceilings but low floors, depending on how usage and game script shape out. For the Lions, Amon-Ra St. Brown is still a must-start (for now?). Jameson Williams is another player who could become a fantasy liability if Detroit’s offense regresses, but I’m willing to give him another chance as a high-ceiling WR3 back at home this week. No, Isaac TeSlaa and his highlight-reel TD on three routes do not belong anywhere near your lineup this week.

Tight Ends

In Week 1, Cole Kmet ran more routes and saw more targets than first-round rookie Colston Loveland. As long as this lasts, they’re both just dart throw TE2 or even TE3 options. Sam LaPorta saw a 23% target share last week and is still a solid TE1. 

DFS Thoughts:

I expect Detroit to control this game rather than blow it open. I prefer Jahmyr Gibbs paired with the Lions defense over a full passing stack, with Sam LaPorta mixing in if the tight end pool calls for it. Gibbs plus Lions D is an unconventional correlation that can set you up for a first‑place solo if it hits.

Pick’em Winner: Lions.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Browns 16.5, Ravens 28.5

This is an interesting one that could go lots of different ways. Obviously, the Ravens’ offense is elite, and the Browns are willing to drop back early and often with Joe Flacco under center. That could be a recipe for a fantasy bonanza. On the other hand, Baltimore’s defense was excellent to finish last season, and Cleveland’s defense just held Joe Burrow in Co. very much in check. Especially with the massive spread, there’s a chance this ends up being a boring, low-total blowout.  

Quarterbacks

Regardless of whether we get the fun shootout or the boring stomping, Lamar Jackson should get his. On the other side, Joe Flacco’s proclivity for chucking the ball around makes him a potential QB2 option, although he’s risky given Cleveland’s low total. 

Running Backs

Derrick Henry is the King for a reason, and this game lines up perfectly for him to have another huge week. On the Browns’ side, Dylan Sampson is the only player to really consider … but he actually posted fewer snaps and routes than Jerome Ford in Week 1, while Raheim Sanders scored a goal-line TD. Oh yeah, and Quinshon Judkins. Unless you’re really desperate, I recommend benching all players in this backfield until things settle down, one way or another.     

Wide Receivers

Coming off an absolutely massive week, Zay Flowers is a must-play WR2. Rashod Bateman is the Ravens’ clear WR2, making him a dart-throw flex, especially if you think we get the fun version of this game. On the Browns’ side, is it crazy of me to prefer Cedric Tillman to Jerry Jeudy at this point? Going back to last year, the younger WR has looked like the Browns’ WR1 ever since the Amari Cooper trade. Still, they are both solid flex plays given how many attempts Flacco is likely to have in this one. 

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews’ Week 1 usage was very concerning – he posted just a 59% route participation rate even with Isaiah Likely sidelined. However, that was a game in which Lamar had just 19 pass attempts. Andrews’ TD equity in this offense makes him still a TE1, although not an elite one.

DFS Thoughts:

Cleveland likely throws in catch‑up mode. If Harold Fannin Jr. draws attention, I’m fine pivoting to David Njoku or fading the Browns’ pass game entirely. The Ravens defense is firmly in play after a strong showing, and Derrick Henry paired with Ravens D is a correlation I’m comfortable with even if it picks up some popularity.

Pick’em Winner: Ravens.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Jaguars 22.5, Bengals 26.5

Both of these teams disappointed offensively in Week 1. The Jaguars scored 26 points, but it wasn’t exactly pretty against an overmatched Panthers team. The Bengals, meanwhile, completely imploded with a grand total of seven yards in the second half. Cincinnati does have a history of starting slow, but they haven’t picked it up until at least a few weeks have gone by in previous years. Vegas clearly still believes in their offense, and it is thankfully condensed enough in a few studs to make our fantasy decisions easy.

Quarterbacks

Even with his duo of exciting young receivers and Liam Coen at the controls, Trevor Lawrence scored just 11.3 points in Week 1. He’s just a QB2 even in this theoretically juicy matchup. Joe Burrow is still a must-start.

Running Backs

Especially with Tank Bigsby now in Philadelphia, Travis Etienne deserves to be considered an RB2 this week … although watch out for how his workload develops with LeQuint Allen Jr. playing passing downs and Bhayshul Tuten on his way. With all 21 of the Bengals’ RB carries and three targets last week, Chase Brown is still an absolute workhorse and a must-start. 

Wide Receivers

Brian Thomas Jr. should be in lineups. With encouraging usage in his NFL debut and this exciting matchup, Travis Hunter should be too, as a WR3/flex option. They both disappointed last week, but don’t overthink it and take either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins out of your lineup.

Tight Ends

With just a 61% route participation rate last week, Brenton Strange is just a mid-range TE2. That’s more than can be said for any Cincinnati TE – Noah Fant actually ran more routes than Mike Gesicki last week … and he only ran 13.

DFS Thoughts:

The story I’m telling is simple – Jaguars jump ahead and Cincinnati chases. I like Trevor Lawrence with Brian Thomas Jr. and a Bengals bring‑back. On DraftKings, Chase Brown makes sense for the receiving work, while on FanDuel I’d lean Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. If Lawrence gathers too much attention, I’ll either over‑stack the game or fade it entirely.

Pick’em Winner: Jaguars.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Rams 23.5, Titans 18.5

Unsurprisingly, Cam Ward and the Titans struggled against Denver’s elite defense in the first-overall pick’s NFL debut. Things only get marginally easier this week as they face off against a solid Rams unit. The Rams put up just 14 points against another elite defense in the Texans in Week 1, but at least Matthew Stafford’s back looked fine. 

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford led the league in PFF Passing Grade in Week 1 … and still finished as just the fantasy QB20 on the week. He’s a QB2. Stafford did score more points than Cam Ward, though, who certainly hasn’t earned his way into lineups yet with 2.5 points last week. 

Running Backs

Once again, rumors of Kyren Williams’ demise were greatly exaggerated. He’s undeniably a weekly RB1, albeit a low-ceiling one, as long as his usage lasts. Speaking of elite usage, Tony Pollard absolutely dominated the Titans’ backfield last week, leading all RBs with an 89% snap share. That’s enough to keep him as a solid RB2 despite Tennessee’s low total. 

Wide Receivers

Should Puka Nacua be considered the WR1 overall? He easily led the league in yards per route run last season and picked up right where he left off last week. If he’s on your roster, thank your lucky stars and start him every week (as long as he stays healthy). Davante Adams’ Rams debut was a bit underwhelming, but he still saw a 28% target share and had at least one vintage catch on the sideline. He’s a WR2. For the Titans, Calvin Ridley should find it easier to capitalize on elite usage numbers when not facing Pat Surtain II. He’s a WR3 even if Ward continues to struggle. Rookie Elic Ayomanor also quietly saw very solid usage, but he’s nothing but a true dart throw flex at this point.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee led Rams TEs in routes, but he was at just a 56% participation rate, making him unplayable. Chig Okonkwo’s usage was better, but it’s hard to get too excited about him either, given the Titans’ overall offensive situation. 

DFS Thoughts:

This looks like a tough, pretty close game, and I’m picking the Rams to win it. My read is that both defenses are good enough to prevent the game from opening up into a shootout. When the Steelers and Jets erupted last week, it was because both teams wanted to run but were forced out of it. Here, the defenses are strong enough to keep it tighter and lower scoring.

From a DFS perspective, I still like Davante Adams as a season-long weekend target, but I’m not sure I’ll get there this week. With two solid defenses, this projects as a low-to-medium scoring game. If I do go to this matchup, I prefer Adams over Puka Nacua.

Pick’em Winner: Rams.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Patriots 20.5, Dolphins 22.5

The Dolphins absolutely embarrassed themselves in Week 1 against the Colts. Luckily, they do have a great opportunity to bounce back against a Patriots defense that just gave up 362 yards to Geno Smith. As for New England’s offense, they weren’t impressive either with just 13 points … but they also have a great opportunity to bounce back against a Dolphins defense that just got lit up by Daniel Jones.

Quarterbacks

They both have upside in these tempting matchups, but neither Tua Tagovailoa or Drake Maye is more than a QB2 at this point.

Running Backs

Even while the Dolphins’ offense imploded, De’Von Achane got there with a garbage-time receiving TD in Week 1. His dual-threat usage and explosive ability make him still a borderline RB1 at worst. It’s hard to get too excited about either TreVeyon Henderson or Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson is more explosive and should be more involved in the passing game, but Stevenson was the clear lead back in Week 1. They are both borderline RB3 options.

Wide Receivers

I fully understand wanting to give up on Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle. But I still think they’re both playable this week, as WR2 and flex options, respectively. The Dolphins’ offense actually moved the ball okay, except for Tua’s three interceptions. In this matchup, maybe their two star receivers can do something. I’m less optimistic on the Patriots’ side. Kayshon Boutte was the story of Week 1, and he did see easily the best usage of the group. But he’s still nothing more than a borderline flex play at best. The same goes for Stefon Diggs, whose usage – 62% participation rate and a 15% target share – was concerning. 

Tight Ends

Darren Waller has been ruled out again, meaning no Miami TE is even on the fantasy radar. Hunter Henry definitely is, but last week’s usage indicated that he won’t be as much of a focal point in the Patriots’ passing offense this season. He’s only a borderline TE1 because the position as a whole is suspect as usual. 

DFS Thoughts: On paper this looks like a vintage Tyreek Hill spot, but I’m not going there yet. We tested it last week and Miami still looked rough. If you do play it – and DFS is about what could happen – fully stack the game rather than one‑off Tyreek, with pairings like Tyreek plus Kayshon Boutte or De’Von Achane plus Boutte.

Pick’em Winner: Patriots.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: 49ers 21.5, Saints 19.5

The Saints’ offense was unsurprisingly ineffective in Week 1. The 49ers, meanwhile, picked up where they left off by losing George Kittle, Brock Purdy, and likely also Jauan Jennings to injury. Mac Jones vs. Spencer Rattler is not exactly a quarterback matchup that screams “fantasy points.” 

Quarterbacks

Between these two QBs, I have more optimism for Mac Jones under Kyle Shanahan’s guidance than for Spencer Rattler. But you hopefully won’t have to consider either for your Week 2 lineups. 

Running Backs

With 22 carries and 10 targets, Christian McCaffrey was fully back in Week 1 and is an obvious elite option even with Jones under center. Alvin Kamara, on the other hand, didn’t see his usual receiving involvement with just two targets last week. But he’s still the Saints’ clear workhorse and should be in lineups as an RB2. 

Wide Receivers

It’s looking as though Jauan Jennings will be out this week. That makes Ricky Pearsall a solid WR3 option as the last man left standing. With Jones under center, it’s not worth trying to figure out who will play alongside Pearsall this week. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both saw solid usage last week, but it’s hard to overlook how bad this offense is overall. They’re nothing more than flex options, with Olave being the safer of the two. 

Tight Ends

If Purdy were in, maybe Jake Tonges would be worth considering as a George Kittle replacement. With Jones under center, there are clearly better options. One of those better options is Juwan Johnson, who saw elite usage in Week 1. He’s a high-end TE2. 

DFS Thoughts:

Christian McCaffrey may see extreme volume with San Francisco thin at playmakers, and the public knows it, but so do the Saints. He’s a volume smash at likely high attention; I’ll probably stay away. If you go there, pair CMC with the 49ers defense for differentiation. I’m fading the Saints side.

Pick’em Winner: 49ers.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Panthers 18.5, Cardinals 25.5

The Panthers struggled massively on offense in Week 1. The Cardinals were better, although that may have been because of their soft matchup with New Orleans. Luckily, they get another soft matchup this week, as Carolina’s defense isn’t any better than their offense. 

Quarterbacks

With rushing ability and a seemingly improved connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. in year two, Kyler Murray is a very solid QB1. Bryce Young is only a play if you’re desperate in a 2-QB league.

Running Backs

James Conner did cede a little more work than expected to Trey Benson in Week 1. But he is still in a smash spot against Carolina’s run defense, which was historically bad last season. In fact, the Panthers’ run D is so bad that Benson might be a viable deep-league flex if things get out of hand. On the other side, Chuba Hubbard did lose some work (especially in the receiving game) to Rico Dowdle, but his usage is still good enough to be a solid RB2. 

Wide Receivers

Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 2025 debut wasn’t perfect, but it was solid. He was a 21% target share, and caught five of his six looks for 71 yards and a TD. He’s a WR2 against this beatable Panthers defense. Meanwhile, Tetairoa McMillan’s usage in his NFL debut was excellent – a 23% target share and a 42% air yards share. If the Panthers are going to get anything going through the air, it will be through the rookie, so he’s also a (low-end) WR2. Outside of those two, there’s no real fantasy-relevant WRs in this one – Hunter Renfrow, Xavier Legette, and Michael Wilson are dart throw flex plays.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride is a must-start. With Tommy Tremble also involved in the Panthers’ offense, Ja’Tavion Sanders is just a classic TD-or-bust dart throw TE. 

DFS Thoughts:

I expect Arizona to control this without needing fireworks, so I’m mostly staying away. If you must play it, a cheap mini like Trey Benson plus Hunter Renfrow works on DraftKings, where receptions matter. Longer‑term, I’m more interested in weeks where Arizona is forced to pass through Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Pick’em Winner: Cardinals.

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Broncos 22.5, Colts 21.5

The Broncos’ offense was surprisingly mediocre in Week 1, while the Colts’ was shockingly effective. Will those trends continue, or will we see regression to what was expected on one or both sides? Given the matchups (Denver’s defense is elite while Indianapolis’ is mediocre), perhaps regression is imminent. But the point totals at least indicate that this will be a close game.

Quarterbacks

Are we headed for a sophomore slump for Bo Nix? He was PFF’s lowest-graded QB in Week 1 and finished with just 8.8 points. Given we have a much larger sample of Nix as a decent fantasy QB, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as a borderline QB1 for another week. We do actually also have a sample (back in 2022) of Daniel Jones being a decent fantasy QB. With Shane Steichen calling plays and solid weapons to go with his own mobility, that could be the case again this season … but I don’t see him being more than a QB2 against this Broncos defense. 

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor played literally every snap for the Colts’ offense in the first half; he might have done the same in the second if things didn’t get out of hand. He’s a locked-in RB1. Things couldn’t be more different in the Denver backfield, where J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey, and Tyler Badie were all involved. For now, Dobbins is the clear leader with RB3 value, while Harvey is more of a boom-or-bust flex option; Badie is not fantasy-relevant aside from hurting the values of the other two. 

Wide Receivers

Shockingly, Michael Pittman Jr. played better. However, he will likely get the Pat Surtain treatment this Sunday, so he is only a flex play. Josh Downs’ involvement was even lower than usual (49% route participation rate), so he’s not playable at all. For the Broncos, Courtland Sutton is the only player with a role we can count on for fantasy production; he is a solid WR2.

Tight Ends

With excellent usage in his NFL debut, Tyler Warren has already established himself as a weekly TE1. Evan Engram dealt with a calf injury in his Broncos debut, but that’s not enough to excuse his 28% route share. He’s a TE2, and even that might be generous. 

DFS Thoughts: We were right not to anoint a Denver workhorse but did peg J.K. Dobbins as the guy to have last week but R.J. Harvey flashed too – this is trending toward a split, so I’m cautious about chasing it in a mostly stay-away game. Warren has some value with Pittman likely locked up by Surtain.

Pick’em Winner: Colts

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Eagles 23.5, Chiefs 23.5

The Super Bowl rematch figures to be a great football game, but it might end up being a disappointing fantasy contest. The Chiefs are down their top two receivers, and the Eagles oftentimes might as well not have any receivers at all with how they run their offense. On the other hand, there are still transcendent players on both of these offenses, so it’s not like this is a game we can just ignore. 

Quarterbacks

Especially if he keeps scrambling like he did in Week 1, Jalen Hurts is a top-tier fantasy QB every week. Patrick Mahomes isn’t anymore, especially without his top two weapons and against a tough defense. Still, he’s a backend QB1, especially because we know he should have to drop back plenty in this one.

Running Backs

Start Saquon Barkley – you’re welcome for this expert fantasy football analysis. On the other hand, I wouldn’t want to be starting any Chiefs running backs this week. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both saw five carries and three targets last week. In better matchups, they might both be flex options. Against this Philadelphia defense, they’re both desperation plays – you’re really just hoping for a TD.

Wide Receivers

They both dropped complete duds in Week 1, but the Eagles’ duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both still good options this week. AJB is a borderline WR1, while Smith is a borderline WR2. On the Chiefs’ side, Marquise Brown saw a league-high 16 targets last week – he’s a solid WR2. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton will also both be involved, but they are just risky flex options. 

Tight Ends

With Dallas Goedert ruled out, Grant Calcaterra is on the menu as a streaming TE2 – the Chiefs did lead the league in yards allowed to the TE position last season. He’s nowhere near his old self, and his Week 1 usage was mediocre, but Travis Kelce is still a TE1 this week, if only by default. 

DFS Thoughts:

I’m likely fading this spot. The Eagles defense can control the game and there’s no need to force exposure. If you insist, Saquon Barkley plus Eagles D is a viable way to tell that story.

Pick’em Winner: Eagles.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Ted’s Preview:

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Falcons 20.5, Vikings 24.5

Is it just me that still thinks of this matchup as the Kirk Cousins Bowl, even though Kirk himself will be on the sideline holding a clipboard? Instead, we will get a matchup of two 2024 QBs who had mixed results in Week 1. Neither of these defenses is loaded with talent (although Brian Flores’ unit is more than the sum of its parts), so we could be in for a fun SNF showdown.

Quarterbacks

J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix were both top-12 QBs in Week 1. But neither was perfect, and they both had their final scores propped up in part by rushing TDs. For this week, they are both QB2s, although I give the edge to McCarthy, who doesn’t have to face Flores’ defense. 

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson is a no-brainer RB1. On the Vikings’ side, Jordan Mason saw nearly double Aaron Jones’ carries in Week 1, although the latter was more involved through the air and scored a receiving TD. They are both RB3 options, with an edge to Jones in PPR formats and Mason in Standard. 

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson is obviously a start, as is Drake London now that he is officially good to go. Darnell Mooney is also a viable flex play in his 2025 debut coming off a shoulder injury. If you want to throw a dart at a Vikings receiver not named Jefferson, it should be Jalen Nailor, not Adam Thielen. They both saw just one target in Week 1 but Nailor at least ran six more routes (88% to 63%).  

Tight Ends

With Atlanta’s top two receivers back healthy, Kyle Pitts is back to being just a borderline TE1. T.J. Hockenson is a more solid TE1, although that’s more a reflection of the position’s lack of depth than any great usage he saw in Week 1.

DFS Thoughts: No DFS notes – save for Showdown later.

Pick’em Winner: Minnesota

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans

Ted’s Preview:

Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Buccaneers 22.5, Texans 20.5

The Buccaneers’ defense is bad, but so is the Texans’ offense. Going the other way, the Buccaneers’ offense is explosive, but Houston’s defense is excellent. Putting it all together, our first of two Monday night games has a very wide range of outcomes.

Quarterbacks

Even against the aforementioned tough Houston defense, Baker Mayfield is a backend QB1. C.J. Stroud, on the other hand, is only a solid QB2 thanks to the Tampa secondary’s weakness. 

Running Backs

He didn’t light the box score on fire, but Bucky Irving’s Week 1 usage was excellent, including a 77% snap share, an 83% RB rush share, and a 13% target share. Fire him up confidently as a low-end RB1. On the other side, Houston’s backfield is a mess, with four backs recording at least three touches and seven snaps in Week 1. Nick Chubb is the only player who saw enough work to be close to startable, and even he profiles as an ugly, TD-dependent flex play.

Wide Receivers

With two TDs in his NFL debut, Emeka Egbuka has arrived. The hype has gotten a little out of control this week, but he is still a solid WR2/WR3 option. Mike Evans, despite a relatively quiet Week 1, is still a borderline WR1. I’m also willing to still call Nico Collins a WR1 despite his own disappointing start to 2025. Behind him, no other Houston receiver saw more than three targets or posted above a 65% route participation rate. That means they’re best avoided even in a tempting matchup (although Xavier Hutchinson is the best dart to throw if you must, based on last week’s usage). 

Tight Ends

DFS Thoughts:

Pick’em Winner: Tampa Bay

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Ted’s Preview:

Monday, 10:00 p.m. ET | Projected Totals: Chargers 24.5, Raiders 21.5

These AFC West rivals both ranked in the top four in pass rate over expected in Week 1. They also both have relatively unthreatening defenses. For those of us who stay up late to watch it, this could end up being a surprisingly fun fantasy game.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert dropped back 41 times in Week 1, a number he only reached four times in 2024. He also rushed seven times, a number he only beat twice last season. As long as Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman keep putting work on Herbert’s plate, he is a solid QB1. Geno Smith also saw plenty of work in Week 1, finishing second to only Josh Allen in passing yards on the week. However, adding negligible value with his legs means he is just a QB2. 

Running Backs

Both of these teams threw their first-round RBs directly into workhorse roles in Week 1. Omarion Hampton posted an 81% snap share and saw 17 of 19 RB opportunities, while Ashton Jeanty was even better at 86% and 21 out of 24. They are both must-start backs this week, somewhere near the RB1/RB2 border. 

Wide Receivers

Even if the Chargers’ new pass-happy approach continues, it’s very unlikely (although not impossible) that they will support three consistent fantasy WRs. Ladd McConkey is the clear top target, and he is safe as a fantasy WR1 (or WR2 at worst). But either Quentin Johnston’s third-year breakout or Keenan Allen’s triumphant return to LA isn’t likely to last. In Week 1, QJ ran more routes, but Allen saw more targets. In this good matchup, they are both flex plays, but don’t be surprised if one or the other disappoints. For the Raiders, Jakobi Meyers is still the only name to really consider — he is a WR3.

Tight Ends

If he plays, Brock Bowers is still a must-start. If he doesn’t, Michael Mayer becomes a streamer worth considering. On the Chargers’ side, the split between Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin was too balanced for either to be more than a TD-or-bust play. 

DFS Thoughts: If you’re choosing sides at receiver, I still prefer Davante Adams in this range, though the overall environment doesn’t demand exposure. If you do stack, do it deliberately with a clear bring‑back. Pick’em Winner: –

Lineup & Strategy Wrap‑Up

FanDuel

On FanDuel I came in wanting to build around Trevor Lawrence stacks, but as I started working through the numbers I found myself on Dak Prescott with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Ferguson’s price let me keep Lamb, which naturally led to Dak at quarterback. I also worked in Jahmyr Gibbs and Trey Benson, who is simply too cheap at $4,900. Keon Coleman is another strong value at $5,300.

Tony Pollard is egregiously underpriced, but I’m still fine fading him in this matchup. Quarterback attention looks like it always does – Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Lawrence, Hurts, Dak – and they rarely push past fifteen percent, so the leverage edge tends to live at running back and receiver.

Christian McCaffrey is around thirty percent, Pollard is high, Henry is lower, and Gibbs sits near ten percent. Travis Etienne is surprisingly low, which makes him a strong way to get different if you’re playing Jaguars–Bengals. Benson is near zero and that’s exactly the kind of value I want to use to unlock ceiling.

At receiver, the chalk sits with Puka Nacua, Calvin Ridley, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown, Brian Thomas Jr., and Ja’Marr Chase. As a pivot, I prefer Davante Adams around five percent. Coleman is strong single‑digits and Tyreek Hill is an excellent low‑attention anchor for a pivot build. Deep darts like Kayshon Boutte, Tyquan Thornton, Ayomanor, and Hunter Renfrow are essentially unplayed.

Tight end attention clusters on Trey McBride, but I’m happy to fade that and leapfrog with a cheap touchdown from a correlated piece like Benson. Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku are both around five percent; I lean Njoku for touchdown upside.

On defense, the field is punting with the Saints and somehown even the Browns, which opens leverage on premium units like the 49ers defense – almost unplayed – and the Rams, Broncos, and Bills if you need pivots. This is telling me the field is jamming in studs where they can and going way too cheap at DEF.

I’m sticking to my Dak stack in my main, but Joe Flacco with David Njoku and a Derrick Henry bring‑back make a nice secondary lineup.

DraftKings

On DraftKings I wanted to attack Jaguars–Bengals, and the pricing made that straightforward. Harold Fannin Jr. is the clear value at tight end – way cheaper than Njoku here – which pulls attention to him. Trey Benson is also underpriced, and Travis Etienne ranks as RB17 on DK versus RB12 on FanDuel, which makes him more affordable in this pool. Xavier Legette is a punt, but I prefer Hunter Renfrow, who is cheaper and has a clear role in the middle of Arizona’s zone.

Ownership mostly mirrors FanDuel. Joe Burrow comes in a bit higher while Josh Allen dips, and Cam Ward is higher‑owned than Justin Fields. At running back, Pollard’s attention drops, Gibbs and Henry sit in single digits, and Etienne remains surprisingly low. At receiver, Ricky Pearsall is a nice pivot off McCaffrey attention – or you can play both together to differentiate. Cedric Tillman is low and could be the Browns’ top option. Tyreek Hill and Boutte are low, Jameson Williams is barely played, and Renfrow is near zero. At tight end, Fannin is the attention magnet, Njoku trails, and Theo Johnson is a deep leverage alternative. Defense follows the same pattern – people want cheap units – but with value at WR and TE there’s no reason to punt into bad spots. The 49ers defense projects as the lowest‑owned and I’m happy to play them against Spencer Rattler.

Where I landed was an over‑stack built around Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase, alongside Travis Etienne and Brian Thomas Jr. DK’s values let me go bigger here than on FanDuel, and Burrow–Chase with Etienne–BTJ fits the story I want to tell. I am finding myself with some CMC plus 49ers builds, despite his high ownership.

I like giving the Dolphins one more chance in my secondary lineup, focusing on Hill. Play around with lineups starting from both Tua and Maye and see what other pieces you can fit in.

Yahoo

On Yahoo I didn’t come in with a locked target stack, so I leaned on the matchups we liked in the previews. That naturally points to Trevor Lawrence with Brian Thomas Jr. and a Bengals bring‑back, a value stack like Joe Flacco with David Njoku, the Jahmyr Gibbs plus Lions defense correlation, or even a Dolphins–Patriots YOLO if you want to tell that story.

Pricing stands out with Tyreek Hill at $26, Davante Adams at $29, and Keon Coleman at $17. Travis Etienne at $18 and Trey Benson at $12 are both very friendly. At tight end, David Njoku at $19 and Harold Fannin Jr. at $15 both work. The 49ers defense at $18 is expensive but carries almost no attention – that’s the exact kind of premium leverage that plays on Yahoo.

Ownership extremes jump off the page: Marquise Brown gets a lot of attention and Benson at $12. On the low end of ownership, Davante Adams, Njoku, Keon Coleman, Theo Johnson.

Where I landed was with players that I think are too cheap – Dak, Benson-Renfrow, Theo Johnson on the other side of Dak and Lamb, Hollywood Brown. Playing around with Flex and DEF from there. Also looking at CMC who’s pretty cheap here.