NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 1

Welcome to the start of the 2025 DFS season! One quick note before we dive in: You’ll notice two different approaches in our weekly coverage.

I’ll be starting by pulling in Ted’s game previews that focus on the football side – the best players, the best matchups, and the best game environments – without worrying about price tags or ownership. Think of it as a pure look at who’s most likely to produce on the field or what should happen.

My section – Reginald Appleby – builds on that by layering in the DFS side – salaries, ownership projections, and the trade-offs we have to make when building actual lineups. Sometimes the best plays overlap, but often we’ll need to pivot, leave salary on the table, or take a lower-owned angle to gain leverage. Spots where in agreement are good signs of where the field is likely to go. Spots where we may seem to be in disagreement are great DFS opportunities. It’s not that we disagree with what should happen, it’s just that DFS is about what could happen.

This format is especially helpful if you’re coming from the seasonal world and want to start playing DFS. Ted’s analysis will feel like the weekly rankings you’re used to, while my analysis will show you how to apply that knowledge in DFS contests where price, ownership, and roster construction change the equation.

My process works in two steps:

• Game by game, I’ll share my initial thoughts before considering ownership or salaries. This lets me react to matchups, game environments, and player roles in a vacuum – what the field is likely to see.
• Then, in the Lineup Building section, I’ll bring in our player grids with ownership projections and prices. That’s where the DFS puzzle really changes, and where I’ll adjust to find leverage, pivots, and lineup constructions that can separate us from the crowd.

Game Overviews

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Buccaneers 24.5, Falcons 23.5

123 points were scored in the two matchups between these division rivals last season. Given that they both still project to have questionable defenses and pass-happy offenses, we could very well be in for another shootout. There are a lot of potentially interesting games to target this weekend, but this is near the top of the list.

Quarterbacks

I’m skeptical of Baker Mayfield’s chances to repeat his excellent 2024 fantasy campaign, but this matchup gives him a great opportunity to pick up where he left off. He’s an easy QB1. Michael Penix Jr. is not as safe a play, but he’s intriguing as a QB2. He was incredibly aggressive in his three starts last year, and this is an environment where that approach could pay off.

Running Backs

Obviously, Bijan Robinson is a must-start, regardless of matchup … but this matchup certainly doesn’t hurt, either. Tyler Allgeier is unlikely to be involved enough to be relevant. Things are a bit trickier on the Tampa Bay side, where the big question is whether Bucky Irving will pick up where he left off as a true three-down workhorse. He’s a start, regardless, while Rachaad White (and Sean Tucker) is best left on benches until we get the answer to that question. 

Wide Receivers

Each of these teams has one locked-in stud – fire up Mike Evans and Drake London with even more confidence than usual in this matchup. But, especially because of the shootout potential, both rookie Emeka Egbuka and veteran Darnell Mooney are viable options. It’s always risky to start a rookie in their NFL debut, but the Bucs have no one other than Egbuka to turn to with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan both sidelined. Mooney, meanwhile, has been dealing with a shoulder injury of his own but appears to be on track to play. He absolutely cooked the Buccaneers for 21.8 half-PPR points per game last season, so as long as he’s healthy, he’s probably more startable than his ADP would indicate.

Tight Ends

In traditional, one-TE leagues, neither Kyle Pitts nor Cade Otton should really be in your lineup. With that said, they do both benefit from the chance that this game goes off the rails (in a good way), making them more viable as TE2 or flex options in deep formats.

DFS Thoughts:

This is going to be one of the more popular games with a high Vegas total and a close spread, but I’m probably going to stay away. The Bucs have issues at WR with injuries, and everybody’s going to be on preseason sleeper Emeka Egbuka. If I were to play this game, I’d try to go to Mike Evans instead, relying on his traditional red-zone role to grab a couple of TDs. Bijan Robinson is coming off consensus 1.01 status, so he could be popular, but Tampa still has a very strong run defense. I’ll wait to see it.

That said, if you do want to play Egbuka, I think the sharper way is to over-stack it – Baker + Evans + Egbuka – rather than one-offing the rookie. And because of the injuries, volume should be really condensed between Evans and Egbuka. In that case, Baker fits better. I also don’t mind throwing in Bucs DEF with that build if you’re telling a Tampa control story.

If the whole game becomes super chalky and people are driving a Tampa passing narrative, a pivot is playing Bucky Irving with the Bucs defense – betting Tampa controls and the volume flows to the RB.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Bengals 26.5, Broncos 21.5

This is arguably the game of the week. The Bengals’ offense is elite and aggressive, and their defense is terrible. The question is whether the Browns can do enough to keep things reasonably competitive. I think yes, given the success we’ve seen the Kevin Stefanski/Joe Flacco pairing have in the past and Cincinnati’s defensive woes.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow should be the de facto favorite to throw for 300+ yards and/or four touchdowns every week, and this week is certainly no exception. Joe Flacco is much less of a no-brainer start, but he’s an interesting streaming/QB2 option. The matchup is ideal, and he averaged 21.8 points in five starts for Cleveland in 2023.

Running Backs

Based on preseason usage, we are in for the Chase Brown show once again in Cincinnati’s backfield. Samaje Perine will mix in occasionally on passing downs, but not enough to be relevant. On Cleveland’s side, I actually kind of like this spot for Jerome Ford. He’s the incumbent veteran and the Browns’ likely passing-down back, which should serve him well for a Week 1 matchup where Cleveland will likely be playing from behind. Dylan Sampson will also be involved, but I’d recommend taking a wait-and-see approach on the rookie unless you truly have no other options.

Wide Receivers

You don’t need me to tell you to start Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins; the same probably applies to Jerry Jeudy, given this excellent matchup. In fact, this matchup is so juicy that I like Cedric Tillman as a potential streaming option. Tillman actually outperformed and outtargeted Jeudy in the three weeks after Amari Cooper’s departure before he suffered a season-ending concussion. At the very least, see if you have room to stash him on your bench, as he could easily be a hot Week 2 pickup after taking advantage of this Cincinnati secondary on Sunday.

Tight Ends

With Flacco under center and the Bengals’ defense on tap, now is the time to fire up David Njoku. I’ll also be watching to see how the Browns utilize Harold Fannin Jr., but he’s certainly not playable at this point. Mike Gesicki definitely could find the end zone, but you’ve hopefully still got a better option in 1-TE leagues.

DFS Thoughts:

I’ll probably stay away from the Bengals and let other people chase the flashy names like Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown. On the Browns side, I’m avoiding the backfield for now. I like Njoku and he sometimes surprises, but I’ll avoid him here too.

That said, Joe Flacco is interesting. He’s not a great seasonal start, but in DFS he’s one of those cheap QBs who can pop with unexpected performances. If you’re stacking, Njoku is the natural partner, and that could be a sneaky tournament build if you want to spend up elsewhere.

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Dolphins 23.5, Colts 23.5

Is it crazy that this is one of the games I’m most interested in watching this week? Both of these teams have unclear outlooks that will impact multiple fantasy-relevant players. Will the Dolphins’ offense be more like its electric 2023 self or the checkdown-based mess we saw last year? Can Shane Steichen get enough out of Daniel Jones to keep the Colts’ offense above water? Uncertainty on both sides offensively combined with two mediocre defenses makes this a very high-variance matchup.

Quarterbacks

In 1-QB, I hope you have better options than Tua Tagovailoa or Daniel Jones. But they both do have upsides that make them intriguing in other formats. Jones is mobile, and Tua has shown a massive ceiling when everything is humming in Mike McDaniel’s system. You could definitely do worse than punting on either in a pinch.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor is a must-start, as is De’Von Achane despite his calf injury. The only other back worth considering here is Dolphins rookie Ollie Gordon II, who might see an increased early-down workload if Achane is limited by his injury. But playing Gordon at this point is essentially betting on a goal-line TD, which isn’t my idea of a fun way to start the fantasy season.

Wide Receivers

It’s not as obvious as it once was, but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should still both be in lineups. Especially with Achane banged up and Darren Waller likely out, this offense will run through them, and we know they both have big-play ability. On the Colts’ side, this is a good matchup for both Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. They’re both flex options, especially in PPR formats.  

Tight Ends

As mentioned, Darren Waller is listed as doubtful for this one … not that I’d recommend playing him in his first game back from retirement even if he was healthy. This is also Tyler Warren’s NFL debut. He’s an elite prospect and saw great preseason usage, but I’d still recommend waiting to start him if you have the option.

DFS Thoughts (what could happen):

Jonathan Taylor is a great under-the-radar pick. I don’t project the Dolphins to be strong this year, and if they come out flat, it sets up well for Taylor – especially with Daniel Jones at QB being better for Taylor than Richardson. Week 1 is the perfect time to get guys like Taylor or CMC before injuries pile up.

Tyreek Hill is due for some touchdown regression. Despite preseason injuries for Hill and Achane, in theory this is the healthiest they’ll be. If there’s ever a week for Miami to pop, it’s this one. But Indy’s run defense is solid, which opens passing volume but closes the “use the run to drive the pass” path.

Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Panthers 21.5, Jaguars 25.5

Last year, both of these teams were in the bottom 10 on both sides of the ball, including ranking first and second in terms of total yards allowed. There’s optimism that both offenses will be improved this year; if that’s true, this could be a sneakily fun matchup for fantasy. But I’m also not entirely sold on the idea that either of these former first-overall picks is more than mediocre.

Quarterbacks

This is a good matchup for both Bryce Young and Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence, in particular, received major upgrades across the board this offseason (at least in theory) and is a borderline QB1 this week. But I still won’t feel comfortable with either of these guys in 1-QB leagues until they show us something. With that said, they’re both playable in 2-QB formats.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard is a solid RB2, and that’s about all there is to say about the Panthers’ backfield. Things are much trickier on the other side. This is an incredibly juicy matchup, as Carolina gave up over 500 more rushing yards than any other team in 2024. But we don’t know whether Travis Etienne or Tank Bigsby will be the one to benefit from this situation. Exciting rookie Bhyashul Tuten could also be involved. Because of the matchup, both Etienne and Bigsby are playable flex options, with wide ranges of outcomes depending on their usage split.

Wide Receivers

Fire up Brian Thomas Jr. with confidence – the Panthers’ secondary isn’t much better than their run defense. However, I do lean toward holding off on starting Travis Hunter for at least one week. I’m extremely high on the Heisman winner for the season, but he’s just a very risky play until we are sure he will play something close to a full-time offensive role. On the other hand, Tetairoa McMillan is definitely playable in his NFL debut. With Adam Thielen in Minnesota and Jalen Coker on IR, he has zero competition to be Young’s top target in a solid matchup. Xavier Legette and Hunter Renfrow should be the Panthers’ other two starting WRs, but you hopefully have enough solid options that you don’t really have to consider either of them.

Tight Ends

If we get the fun outcome and this game becomes a shootout, both Brenton Strange and Ja’Tavion Sanders could definitely hit this week. But given that we don’t yet know their roles in their respective offenses, let alone whether those offenses are any good, they’re best avoided for now.

DFS Thoughts:

I really like Trevor Lawrence here. Draft rooms loved his WRs – Brian Thomas Jr. was a second-rounder, Travis Hunter went higher than most rookies. But Lawrence himself was way down QB rankings. That doesn’t add up, giving us a shot at DFS gold. For the record, I put my money where my mouth is and started Lawrence over Dak is my season-long leagues.

My lean is Lawrence with Brian Thomas Jr. rather than Hunter (who might be more popular). Hunter’s hype should help free Thomas. And if I’m over-stacking, I love adding Brenton Strange to it.

I don’t need to bring back a Panther. I don’t love Hubbard and Dowdle should have some involvement, I don’t like that they only have one healthy WR. This could be a Lawrence revival party where the Jags pass all day. If I’m telling that story, I could even add the Jags defense to the over-stack – not typical, but it makes sense if the Panthers can’t answer at all.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Raiders 20.5, Patriots 23.5

This is another matchup between two teams that were straight-up bad in 2024 but at least have hope in 2025. Drake Maye enters year two with a new OC, a new WR1, and a massive hype train behind him. On the other side, Geno Smith, Chip Kelly, and Pete Carroll is definitely an upgrade over what the Raiders had last year … but by how much? Given the low totals, we should expect this matchup to be more “ugly bad” than “exciting bad.”

Quarterbacks

I’ve been a doubter about emerging young players for a lot of this article, but I’m willing to roll the dice right away with Drake Maye. The rushing potential he showed last year was excellent, and the Raiders’ defense is terrible. He’s a legitimate QB1 option this week. I also like Geno Smith, but he’s definitely more of a borderline QB2 than anything else against a solid Patriots defense.

Running Backs

Don’t get cute and sit Ashton Jeanty because he’s a rookie making his NFL debut in a tough matchup. You probably drafted him in the first or early second round – fire him up with confidence. On the other hand, I am a little worried about the usage TreVeyon Henderson will see in his NFL debut. There’s a real chance that he is used mostly as a receiving back to start his career, which won’t be a high-usage role if the Patriots handle the Raiders. Henderson is playable as a flex, especially in PPR formats. But don’t be surprised if we see Rhamondre Stevenson easily lead the team in carries, which also makes him a potential flex against Vegas’ weak defense.

Wide Receivers

There’s not a lot to get excited about in terms of receivers for this game. Former Patriot Jakobi Meyers and new Patriot Stefon Diggs are both borderline WR3s. You can maybe start Demario Douglas in a PPR format if you’re desperate. That’s about it.

Tight Ends

Both Brock Bowers and Hunter Henry should pick up more or less where they left off: as a must-start stud and a boring-but-safe borderline TE1 if you’re in a pinch, respectively.

DFS Thoughts:

I don’t really want anything to do with this game. I liked targeting Raider WRs late in drafts, but that’s not a DFS strategy. Ashton Jeanty might be the next Derrick Henry, but his OL is bad. I want to see if he can overcome that before I play him. TreVeyon Henderson has hype, but Rhamondre Stevenson is still there and he was once the up-and-comer getting all the hype.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Cardinals 24.5, Saints 18.5

With probably the worst top-to-bottom roster in the entire league, the Saints will be a fun team to target all season. That will especially be true if Kellen Moore – who tends to run high-tempo, fantasy-friendly offenses – manages to get something approaching competence out of Spencer Rattler. For now, we have to assume that won’t be the case. But if it is, this game, and every Saints game for the rest of the season, has the potential to be a fantasy bonanza.

Quarterbacks

The only potential flaw with this matchup for Kyler Murray is that the Saints might simply be too bad for Arizona to have to throw much. But in Week 1, coming off a disappointing season, I think we might see the Cardinals flex their passing game a bit, even if they are winning comfortably. With that plus his rushing upside, Kyler is a very solid QB1. The Cardinals’ defense isn’t too scary, but Spencer Rattler is still probably the quarterback I would least like to have in my lineup this week.

Running Backs

This is the smash spot of all smash spots for James Conner, who should be locked into lineups. Alvin Kamara should be, too. Either the Saints move the ball and he is a large part of their offense, or they fall way behind and he can get there on late-game receiving work.

Wide Receivers

When I mentioned that the Cardinals might want to show off a bit this week, I was really thinking of Marvin Harrison Jr., whose rookie year was undeniably a disappointment despite solid final stats. He’s a WR2 this week. On the Saints’ side, Chris Olave is back healthy and still an excellent talent, but it’s hard to call him more than a WR3 until we see Rattler. I’m also in wait-and-see mode for Rashid Shaheed, who started last season on a tear but might be particularly impacted if Rattler struggles – he’s a boom-or-bust flex option. 

Tight Ends

They might try to feature MHJ more this season, but the Cardinals’ passing offense still runs through Trey McBride until proven otherwise. He’s a must-start. Juwan Johnson saw improved usage in the preseason, but he definitely isn’t playable at this point.

DFS Thoughts:

This feels like a stay-away game. Candidate for lowest total of the week. People may be on Arizona’s defense because Spencer Rattler is starting, but if they’re popular, I’d pivot to Saints defense instead as Kyler Murray isn’t exactly a world beater either.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Steelers 20.5, Jets 17.5

Yuck. This game projects to be terribly slow and run-heavy, with Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers facing off against the Justin Fields-led Jets. It’s got the lowest total of the week by 4.5 points, and even that could be underselling it. There are talented players on both sides, but it’s hard to see much fantasy goodness coming out of what is likely to be a true slog.

Quarterbacks

Dual-threat quarterbacks are always fantasy cheat codes unless they are utterly incompetent passers; Justin Fields has consistently flirted with that line in his career. His mobility and big-play rushing upside make him a startable option still, but you might want to look elsewhere in 1-QB leagues given the Steelers’ defensive strength and an overall unappealing game environment. Aaron Rodgers’ days of bringing rushing upside are long gone, so he’s far less likely than Fields to overcome the environmental factors. He’s only startable in deep 2-QB formats.

Running Backs

I’m definitely worried about Breece Hall’s usage … and the matchup … and are we sure he’s even that good? But he’s still probably a must-start unless your RB room is incredibly stacked. I also don’t think Braelon Allen (or Isaiah Davis) is anywhere near startable at this point in this matchup. On the Steelers’ side, Jaylen Warren is a flex option, but I recommend waiting a week or two to roll out Kaleb Johnson. Even if he is already the team’s early-down rusher, the rookie will find tough sledding against the Jets’ defense.

Wide Receivers

Really, I feel very similarly about Garrett Wilson as I do about Hall. With Fields under center, the Jets’ passing volume will be low at the best of times, and the Steelers are a rough matchup both in terms of defensive talent and game flow. Beyond that, I’m just not as convinced as many analysts seem to be that Wilson is an elite talent. But at the end of the day, he’s a talented player who should dominate targets for New York, so he’s a solid starting option. DK Metcalf is a similarly solid option on the Steelers’ side. There are no startable WRs beyond those two in this one.

Tight Ends

Given how often their scoring depends on touchdowns, tight ends are heavily impacted by low-scoring environments. With that in mind, I’m avoiding all three of Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Mason Taylor.

DFS Thoughts:

This is likely to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week. Both want to run the ball. Both have multiple RBs. It’s a slog. I’ll stay away.

We’re past the point of being early on Justin Fields and Cole Kmet pairing up for monster days. If Fields proves himself against Pittsburgh, then maybe we play him in another week. If you wanted to force someone here, maybe DK Metcalf as Rodgers’ red-zone target, but this isn’t the week to need him.

Survivor angle: I’d lean Steelers over Jets, as most people will be on Arizona or Denver.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Giants 19.5, Commanders 26.5

With one of the widest spreads of the weekend, this game is not expected to be close. That’s not surprising, given that the Commanders are looking to build off a playoff run in Jayden Daniels’ rookie year, while the Giants are just wasting time until they are forced to start Jaxson Dart. The Commanders’ total is definitely enticing, although it may be tough to predict who will score those points aside from Daniels himself.

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels is obviously a must-start. He should rank among the top four quarterbacks in just about every week of this season. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, will be lucky to escape the bottom four QBs, even in a good matchup.

Running Backs

It seems as though, with help from a preseason injury for the rookie, Tyrone Tracy Jr. has held off Cam Skattebo to be the Giants’ clear RB1 for now. That makes Skattebo unstartable and Tracy a flex option despite what is likely to be an unfavorable game script. Washington’s backfield, on the other hand, is a massive question mark. If you’ve got no other options, one of Chris Rodriguez Jr. or Jacory Croskey-Merritt will probably have a solid day as the team’s lead rusher. But we don’t know which it will be, and the Giants’ formidable D-Line only adds risk to the equation. Austin Ekeler is at least locked into a passing-down role and should also see some carries, so he’s playable in PPR formats.

Wide Receivers

I’m on the record as being a Terry McLaurin hater, but he’s still obviously a starting fantasy asset every week. I also like Deebo Samuel as a WR3; it is beginning to seem more and more likely that Kliff Kingsbury will use him creatively to help fill their backfield void. On the Giants’ side, Malik Nabers has proven he is more than capable of overcoming tough matchups and terrible QB play. Wan’Dale Robinson has achieved the same feat in the past, but he did it in a PPR-scam type of way that doesn’t seem like a perfect fit for Russ’ playstyle. He’s only a desperation play.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz and Theo Johnson honestly might play very similar roles in their respective offenses. But the Commanders’ offense looks elite while the Giants’ offense looks putrid, so Ertz is a high-end TE2 while Johnson isn’t playable.

DFS Thoughts:

This game isn’t projected to shoot out, but I do like the idea of a mini: Darius Slayton and Deebo Samuel stack. Slayton matches Russ’ deep ball and could boom. Deebo is the kind of hybrid playmaker Kingsbury could use to patch the backfield void. That should be a nice low-owned correlation that doesn’t need a high total.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Titans 16.5, Broncos 26.5

This is the most lopsided spread of the weekend, as the Broncos are expected to beat up on poor Cam Ward in his NFL debut. If Ward is a difference-maker right out of the gate, we could get a surprising fantasy explosion in this one. Otherwise, it will be up to Sean Payton how much he wants to run up the score.

Quarterbacks

I think Cam Ward deserves more hype than he has been getting. He was the first-overall pick for a reason and could definitely make some fantasy noise as a rookie. But, even if he ends up having a solid season, it probably won’t start in his NFL debut against an elite Denver defense. Bo Nix is a solid backend QB1, although there’s always the potential concern that he simply won’t have to do much en route to an easy win.

Running Backs

The matchup is terrible, but Tony Pollard is still a must-start. The usage he saw when Tyjae Spears was sidelined last season was the best of any back in the league (non-post-Zack-Moss-injury-Chase-Brown division). For the Broncos, both J.K. Dobbins and rookie RJ Harvey are playable. Sean Payton loves to feed his running backs, and he should have every opportunity to do so against an overmatched Titans team.

Wide Receivers

Like his quarterback, I’m optimistic about Calvin Ridley’s prospects this season … just not this week. With Patrick Surtain II likely to be on him for over half of his snaps, Ridley is more of a boom-bust flex option than anything else this week. On the Broncos’ side, Courtland Sutton is the only receiver you can confidently start. We don’t know enough about the usage that Marvin Mims, Pat Bryant, and Troy Franklin will see to start them in what should be a low-passing-volume day for Denver.

Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo’s preseason usage was incredibly encouraging. But he’s clearly nothing more than a dart-throw TE2 in this tough matchup. Evan Engram is playable as a backend TE1, although I’m worried he will end up falling prey to Payton’s notorious rotations.

DFS Thoughts:

Cam Ward is talented but this is a brutal debut. Denver should control. If you’re playing Broncos defense, I always love stacking my DEF with an RB. Harvey has hype, but Dobbins is more proven with splash-play history. I lean Dobbins with the defense if I go there, but I’m not sure I will.

If you want to get cute, tell the “Ward runs for his life and dumps it to Chig Okonkwo” story. That could mean volume, but that’s really just a lottery pick.

Denver defense will be one of the most popular plays. I don’t love eating the most popular defense, but they deserve it.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: 49ers 22.5, Seahawks 20.5

The total for this game is honestly surprisingly low, as neither of these defenses are what they once were. The Seahawks have a new OC/QB pairing in Klint Kubiak and Sam Darnold, which could be anything from a clear upgrade to a massive failure. Meanwhile, the 49ers are hoping to bounce back from an injury-riddled 2024 … and CMC is back on the injury report.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy has consistently been a solid fantasy contributor, and I like him to pick up where he left off as a fringe QB1. On the other hand, Sam Darnold was never a startable fantasy option until he turned his career around in Minnesota last season. Let’s see him do it without Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson before inserting him into lineups as more than a borderline QB2.

Running Backs

Out of nowhere, Christian McCaffrey has popped up on the 49ers’ injury report with a calf issue. He didn’t practice at all on Friday and is officially listed as questionable. If he plays, which he says he will, he’s still a must-start. If he doesn’t, Brian Robinson Jr. probably is, although Isaac Guerendo is reportedly on track to play Sunday. For Seattle, although we’ve heard some rumblings of a committee, it’s still “start Kenneth Walker III and bench Zach Charbonnet” until we actually see the latter get significant touches while both are healthy.

Wide Receivers

While another San Francisco calf injury is currently taking the fantasy internet by storm, Jauan Jennings appears to have recovered (if he was ever actually hurt) and should play on Sunday. I prefer him to Ricky Pearsall, although both are playable as WR3/flex types. For the Seahawks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba should dominate volume and is an obvious start. Cooper Kupp is a flex option, although there’s a chance that leaving Matthew Stafford kills what remaining fantasy value he had.

Tight Ends

George Kittle is an elite TE option every week that he is healthy. Until we see one of AJ Barner or Elijah Arroyo completely ice the other, no Seahawks TE is playable.

DFS Thoughts:

This is the perfect week to play Christian McCaffrey before the injuries pile up. With Deebo gone, Aiyuk gone, Jennings hurt, and Pearsall still finding his way, CMC and Kittle should dominate touches.

Historically, when McCaffrey plays without other weapons, he smashes. I’m comfortable with him Week 1, even knowing his injury risk. Pairing him with San Francisco defense is a nice way to pivot off Denver defense chalk.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Lions 23.5, Packers 24.5

This could definitely be an exciting game. The Packers’ offense has tons of talent, but we saw last year that they may need to be pushed to truly let loose. Even with Ben Johnson gone, the Lions should be more than capable of doing that pushing.

Quarterbacks

Both Jordan Love and Jared Goff are absolutely capable of huge games in this spot. But with the amount of quality fantasy QBs playing this week, they’re both more like high-end QB2s than actual QB1s.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs and Jahmyr Gibbs are no-brainer must-starts. David Montgomery probably is, too, although don’t be surprised if his role is the first to shrink if the Lions’ offense takes a step back without Johnson.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown is an elite WR1, and Jameson Williams’ explosiveness means he should be in lineups too. Isaac TeSlaa has generated plenty of buzz, but he’s a long way from being playable. For the Packers, Jayden Reed is officially questionable with a foot injury, which is reportedly a Jones fracture. Even if he plays, I recommend benching him if you have another option – his role is limited enough when he is 100% healthy. However, I like rolling out the rookie, Matthew Golden, in his NFL debut. He has generated rave reviews in camp and has the speed to hit on just one big play. Romeo Doubs is also always a viable deep-league flex as a guy who will at least run a ton of routes for an elite offense.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta aren’t elite, but they are talented playmakers with legit roles on great offenses. That makes them both solid weekly options in the always barren fantasy TE landscape.

DFS Thoughts:

The Packers feel overrated. Matthew Golden was hyped, they traded for Micah Parsons, but I see letdown potential. These teams have shootout ingredients, but it could disappoint.

Josh Jacobs is a forgotten man – I grabbed him cheap in drafts. I’m not sure this is his week, but he’ll get usage. For Lions, I like Jamison Williams. We were on him last year, and he could be solid here. The Gibbs/Montgomery split is always tricky – Gibbs has talent, Monty steals TDs. I want to see more, but it’s worth keeping in mind. If you pick right, either RB has potential to pay off.

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Texans 20.5, Rams 23.5

The spread is pretty tight, but I can see this one getting ugly for the Texans. With Christian Kirk and Joe Mixon both out, Nico Collins is their only proven playmaker on offense. Their O-line is also likely to be overwhelmed by a talented Rams front seven. On the other end, the Texans’ defense is an elite unit, making this game even less appealing as a fantasy spot to target.

Quarterbacks

There’s not much to like about an immobile pocket passer with a low team total facing a good defense. That’s what both C.J. Stroud and Matthew Stafford are this week, making them both unappealing QB2 options.

Running Backs

Even against a great defense, Kyren Williams’ workload is strong enough to make him a borderline RB1. On the other hand, it’s very hard to trust any of the Texans’ RBs. Nick Chubb will probably lead the team in carries, but he’s not his old self and has never been a pass-catcher. Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, and Woody Marks could all also be involved to some degree. Avoid this backfield if possible until we get a clearer picture of the plan with Mixon sidelined.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins and Puka Nacua are studs and should be started in all leagues. Davante Adams should, too. He’s not his old self, but he’s still a talented player and the Rams’ offense is perfectly built for wide receiver scoring. It’s tempting to recommend Jayden Higgins and/or Jaylin Noel with Christian Kirk out, but it’s not like this offense supported two fantasy-relevant receivers last year. Stash both members of the Iowa State rookie duo on your bench for now.

Tight Ends

Kirk being out does make Dalton Schultz slightly more appealing as a TE2. But I’m still not playing him or Tyler Higbee/Terrance Ferguson in this gross game environment.

DFS Thoughts :

I expect the Rams to win. Stafford is banged up but fine. This feels like Davante Adams’ statement game. After a rough Jets stint, he reminds us he’s still elite.

Kyren Williams will get usage, but I’m not as high on him this year with Adams in the mix. Puka was great without Kupp, but with Adams there, we could see regression. For me, this is an Adams game. I don’t feel the need to force other Rams or Texans.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Ravens 26.5, Bills 24.5

These teams are both excellent across the board. But great offense beats great defense in the NFL, and these are truly elite offenses. As a result, we’ve got the highest total of the entire weekend in what should be an excellent game. Given that high total, there are fewer no-doubt studs than you might expect, but there are plenty of secondary pieces worth considering in deeper leagues.

Quarterbacks

The two best fantasy QBs in the league and the last two NFL MVPs, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson should be in fantasy lineups.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry and James Cook should join their QBs in being locked into lineups. Neither back has a truly elite role (Henry doesn’t catch passes while Cook’s snap share is limited), but they make up for it with top-tier efficiency and huge TD equity on these dominant offenses. Otherwise, Justice Hill is the only backup RB to consider here, as a dart throw play in PPR formats.

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers is locked in as a solid WR3, but that’s where the obvious picks end. Rashod Bateman is always a flex option, but he’s inconsistent. For the Bills, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Joshua Palmer are all viable plays … but any one of them could also drop a complete donut. Still, if there was ever a week to force these Bills into your lineup, it might be this one, as they will likely have to throw to keep up with Lamar and Co.

Tight Ends

Especially with Isaiah Likely officially out, Mark Andrews is a very solid TE1. Dalton Kincaid is similar to the rest of the Bills’ pass catchers in that he could have a big day or be entirely irrelevant to the offense. Among tight ends, that leaves him just outside the TE1 ranks, but not unplayable.

DFS Thoughts:

No DFS notes – save for Showdown later.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST | Projected Totals: Vikings 22.5, Bears 21.5

This game could go all sorts of ways. If J.J. McCarthy hits the ground running and Ben Johnson has fixed Caleb Williams, there’s enough talent on both sides for an absolute barn burner. If McCarthy has growing pains and Williams picks up where he left off as one of the worst QBs in the league, we could be in for an ugly first Monday Night game of the season.

Quarterbacks

There’s definitely upside with both J.J. McCarthy and Caleb Williams. But there’s downside, too. With how many good fantasy options there are at quarterback this year, I wouldn’t want to start either in 1-QB formats.

Running Backs

Can D’Andre Swift follow in Javonte Williams’ footsteps by proving everyone wrong with a big game in primetime? Honestly, maybe. There’s no real reason to think he will be anything other than the Bears’ workhorse, and we know that volume is king in fantasy football. On the other side, I believe Aaron Jones is a much better play than Jordan Mason. Jones is the clear pass-catcher of the two, and he’s probably the better rusher, too. With that said, Mason is also a viable flex option, as he may be the team’s lead goal-line back.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson needs no introduction. I’m also willing to give DJ Moore the benefit of the doubt and roll him out as a WR3 (although he’s on thin ice). Rome Odunze’s ice is even thinner, but he’s also a viable WR3. Luther Burden III hasn’t secured a large enough role to be playable yet, and I’m not playing 35-year-old Adam Thielen as the Vikings’ potential WR2.

Tight Ends

As long as Jordan Addison is suspended, T.J. Hockenson is a very solid TE1 option. Colston Loveland definitely has the talent to be a TE1 sooner rather than later, but there are one too many question marks about his role and this offense for him to be there in Week 1.

DFS Thoughts:

No DFS notes – save for Showdown later.

Lineup Building – Ownership & Salary Review

I open with what I want to do based on the game notes – then I immediately pull up our player grids to see ownership and salary, and let that information reshape my plan.

What I wanted coming in:
– Attack Carolina through the air: Trevor Lawrence to Brian Thomas Jr., often with Brenton Strange to complete the over-stack.
– Mix in mini correlations like Jonathan Taylor with Tyreek Hill.
– Secondary interest in Tampa Bay stacks if I was embracing the entire game.
– Add in one-off ceiling plays like Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel.

What changed after looking at ownership and pricing in our grids:
– Christian McCaffrey is risky (calf) and popular – not the profile I want in Week 1. I moved him out of my core despite his ceiling in the game notes.
– Mike Evans is higher owned than I expected. If I play Tampa, I prefer a full over-stack (Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans + Emeka Egbuka) rather than eating a single chalk piece. Or add Bucs DEF to really differentiate the story you’re telling.
– Joe Flacco with David Njoku is a clean super low-owned, low-salary pivot stack that unlocks more elite ceilings elsewhere while keeping correlation.
– Detroit receivers (especially Jameson Williams) look underplayed relative to their upside, making Lions stacks a strong alternative when I don’t run JAX.
– After looking at ownership, Rhamondre Stevenson could be interesting if he really comes in at near zero while still holding the lead role.
– If Daniel Jones picks up popularity, I’m even more comfortable getting contrarian by leaning into Jonathan Taylor instead of chasing Jones stacks.
– Tyreek Hill at modest ownership is exactly the kind of all-ceiling bet I want in Week 1; I’m happy to take a shot here.

Where I landed:
– Core 1: Lawrence + Thomas + Strange. Around that, prioritize Taylor and Tyreek for ceiling; trying to add Davante and Deebo.
– Core 2: If I go to Tampa, I prefer the full over-stack, not a one-off of Egbuka or Evans.
– Pivots: Flacco + Njoku when I want to jam more stud RB/WRs.
– Story Extensions: To fully tell the Jacksonville–Carolina story, I can elevate Chuba Hubbard or slide in Xavier Legette as a bring-back. I don’t love them as standalones, but they complete the stack structure, especially if they make sense at salary.

Process > picks: use ownership projections to build a lineup that leapfrogs the field when it hits, keep correlation tight so fewer things must go right.

How to Use the Player Grids

Sort the Value per Dollar column to surface players who are cheap for their projection. That helps you decide whether a chalky value is worth eating (because the price is truly off) or just overhyped.

Use the Cash Rating and Tournament Rating columns:
– Cash Rating weighs projection and price heavily.
– Tournament Rating also factors in ownership – a reasonably priced player with strong projection and very low ownership will rate higher for tournaments.

I use these to validate (or pivot from) my initial plan, not to build from scratch, but you certainly could build a lineup just based on the grid.

Site-Specific Notes

One last thing before we wrap up: the way you translate all of this into lineups depends a lot on the site you’re playing. Same player pool, same stories – but the salary caps, scoring, and ownership dynamics tilt the builds differently.

• DraftKings
  • Salary is tightest, ownership is sharpest.
  • You need correlation to separate — think Lawrence + Thomas + Strange or a full Tampa over-stack.
  • Leaving $500–$1000 on the table is a strong GPP tactic.
• FanDuel
  • A little looser on pricing than DK, but still rewards correlation.
  • This is where a Lawrence stack plus a cheap dart like Stevenson really works — you can fit in 3–4 ceiling WRs if you get the punt RB right.
  • Think of FD as the middle ground: stacks still matter, but one low-owned dart can carry you.
• Yahoo
  • This is where things change the most. Pricing gaps create massive value pockets — like Emeka Egbuka at $15 or Darius Slayton at $11.
  • That lets you jam multiple slate-breaking ceilings (Adams, Tyreek, Taylor) without needing to force stacks.
  • Correlation is still helpful, but it’s not the driver. On Yahoo, it’s more about identifying the $10–$15 discounts and maximizing raw points per dollar.
  • Example: Flacco + Njoku is viable here not just because of correlation, but because it opens up the salary to fit three true alphas.

👉 Bottom line:

• DK = stack smart, embrace chalk/leverage decisions.
• FD = correlation plus one contrarian dart is the recipe.
• Yahoo = grab the mispriced values, fit as many ceiling players as possible, correlation is secondary.

Quick Pricing Comparison

To see why strategy shifts across sites, look at where a few of our key players rank by position salary:

• Tyreek Hill
  • DraftKings: 5th-most expensive WR ($6,700)
  • FanDuel: 6th-most expensive WR ($7,600)
  • Yahoo: 20th-most expensive WR ($26)
  • Takeaway: On Yahoo, Tyreek is priced like a mid-tier WR but has slate-breaking upside. That’s why you can jam him alongside Taylor and Adams.
• Davante Adams
  • DraftKings: 14th WR ($6,100)
  • FanDuel: 12th WR ($6,900)
  • Yahoo: 17th WR ($33)
  • Takeaway: On DK/FD he’s underpriced relative to ceiling, but on Yahoo he’s priced more fairly.
• Emeka Egbuka
  • DraftKings: 38th WR ($4,600)
  • FanDuel: 42nd WR ($5,000)
  • Yahoo: 57th WR ($15)
  • Takeaway: Across all sites he’s value, but on Yahoo he’s extreme chalk because of how low he ranks compared to expected volume.
• Jonathan Taylor
  • DraftKings: 5th RB ($6,800)
  • FanDuel: 4th RB ($8,300)
  • Yahoo: 6th RB ($37)
  • Takeaway: Consistently priced as a top-5 back everywhere, so you’re not sneaking him in, you’re betting on ceiling before injuries strike.

Site-Specific Takeaways

DraftKings
– Core: Lawrence + Brian Thomas Jr. (often with Brenton Strange). Fill with ceiling one-offs (Tyreek, Davante) or the Taylor anchor.
– Pivot: Flacco + Njoku to free salary for elite WRs/RBs if you need a different construction.
– Story extension: If you want to tell the full JAX–CAR story, elevate Chuba Hubbard or use Xavier Legette as a bring-back.

FanDuel
– Core: Lawrence stacks remain primary, but if you need to reduce QB spend, Flacco + Njoku lets you upgrade to a top-end RB like Jahmyr Gibbs or (if you go back to it) Christian McCaffrey. If you roster CMC, consider pairing with 49ers DEF for correlation.
– Alternate extension: If you want to tighten correlation, consider moving to Chuba Hubbard as a bring-back in Lawrence builds, or pivot to Bucs DEF with Bucky Irving when playing the Tampa control story.

Yahoo
– Core: Pricing gaps often favor value cores (e.g., Flacco + Njoku) and heavier spending at WR/RB, with a bit less emphasis on strict correlation.
– Pivot: Lawrence stacks are still very live if you can pair with cheaper WRs like Darius Slayton.
– Extension: If you attack Tampa, Egbuka makes sense as a volume anchor in an over-stack.