Conference Championship NFL DFS Building Blocks

Can you believe there are only three games left in the NFL season? I know I can’t. We have reached the Conference Championship, which means this weekend’s “Main” NFL DFS slates will be just two games. Compared to a normal, larger slate, this tiny slate does bring some very different implications. Chalk will be chalkier, but avoiding some of the top players is essentially impossible. It’s more about finding unique combinations of players than trying to find a sneaky stack or an under-the-radar game to target. With that in mind, let’s dive right into it!

Game Overviews

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Totals: Commanders 20.5, Eagles 26.5

It’s interesting that this game’s spread is as large as it is. After all, the Commanders were massive underdogs last week against the Lions, and they pulled off what ended up being a fairly comfortable win (albeit thanks to a 5-0 turnover advantage). With that said, it makes sense when you look at these rosters. The Eagles are better essentially across the board … except perhaps at quarterback, the most important position in sports. 

Quarterbacks

Speaking of quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels is already staking his claim as the best in the entire NFC. He has continued his regular-season dominance into the postseason, with back-to-back productive outings. He is also rushing the ball more, which is always a huge boost to quarterback fantasy scoring. With that said, this is a very bad matchup for him against the Eagles’ elite defense, especially given his price is the second-highest on all three sites. Jalen Hurts, meanwhile, is the consensus QB3 in terms of pricing. He is dealing with a knee injury but is expected to play. Whether that will limit his mobility or, even worse, keep him from doing the Tush Push is one of the most important questions on this slate. I lean toward assuming that Hurts will push through the pain (get it?) for this all-important matchup. However, his volume has been minimal so far in these playoffs, as he failed to pass for even 150 yards in either of the Eagles’ first two wins. If the Commanders can make him drop back a bit more, Hurts could easily be the best QB on this slate, especially if he chips in a TD or two with his legs. Especially given his lower price and low projected rostership, Hurts is my preferred option over Daniels, although both are obviously playable.  

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley is far and away the highest-projected, most expensive, and most popular running back on this slate. This makes sense, as he is the most talented back, has by far the best workload, and is headed into easily the softest matchup. Honestly, I recommend just locking him into your lineups on all sites — he’s far more likely to be in optimal lineups than not. Kenneth Gainwell doesn’t see enough volume to be playable even on this tiny slate. For the Commanders, Brian Robinson Jr. is coming off his best game in months. However, he may not find much room to run against this Eagles defense. In fact, I actually prefer Austin Ekeler. The veteran saw less work last week, but he is cheaper across the board and is Washington’s go-to receiving back, making him a better fit for the likely game script in this one. With that said, Robinson is definitely also still playable, especially because he is the main goal-line RB. Jeremy McNichols is also involved and even scored a goal-line TD of his own last week, but I don’t recommend playing him

Wide Receivers

In two matchups with the Eagles this season, Terry McLaurin had one solid game (5/60/1) and one absolute dud (1/10/0). Honestly, given his combination of price and projected rostership, I lean toward fading him. His usage is very solid, but not truly elite, and the Eagles’ defense was absolutely brutal for opposing receivers this season. With that said, Scary Terry is by no means a must-avoid — no one who will see real volume gets that label on a slate this small. Meanwhile, Dyami Brown seems to have emerged as the Commanders’ WR2, and he is coming off back-to-back productive outings. I’m a little skeptical of him as a popular value at receiver given the tough matchup and his non-existent production history, but he is certainly also viable. I would like him a bit more if Olamide Zaccheaus, who suffered a groin/hip injury last week and has yet to get in a full practice this week, remains limited. If Zaccheaus is a full go, he becomes tempting as a cheaper pivot off of Brown — the two were locked in a 50/50 split prior to the injury (if anything, Zaccheaus had the edge). Meanwhile, Hurts’ low passing volume has killed the production of both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, neither of whom has done much of anything so far in the playoffs. With that said, both AJB and Smith are top-three receiver talents on this slate and see very solid volume when the Eagles do pass. Brown’s usage is easily the best of any remaining WR, while Smith’s is very comparable to McLaurin’s. I like both of the Eagles’ receivers, who should be under-rostered due to their recent struggles. Jahan Dotson ranks shockingly high among remaining receivers in terms of routes, but he doesn’t see enough targets to be more than a large-field dart throw. 

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz is a consistent, large part of the Commanders’ offense, especially in the red zone. His prices are fair, and he is playable either as your TE or in the FLEX for two-TE builds. I’m a little less into Dallas Goedert, who is more expensive than Ertz despite usually seeing fewer targets. But he is also definitely still in play, especially if you are building around Hurts. 

Defenses

The Eagles’ defense is the consensus most-expensive option on the slate, for good reason. They are the best defense left in the playoffs, the Commanders’ total is the lowest of any team, and Jayden Daniels does take his fair share of sacks. They’re playable if you have the cash. With that said, I also like the Commanders’ defense as a pay-down option. If they can slow down Saquon Barkley or get a lead (this is a big if), Hurts does lead the remaining QBs in both sack rate and turnover-worthy-play rate. Especially on a slate with so few options, that’s enough to make Washington’s defense interesting. 

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Totals: Bills 23.5, Chiefs 24.5

For what already feels like the 10th time, we are getting Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Conference Championship game. Unfortunately for our purposes, neither of these teams are the high-flying offensive juggernauts they once were. The Bills are still capable of huge games, but Allen is essentially their only consistent scorer. On the other side, Mahomes and the Chiefs seem content to win every game by three points with 300 total yards. 

Quarterbacks

For all the pessimism I just started on, I’m actually pretty into both of these quarterbacks. On a four-team slate, Josh Allen is very capable of putting up a score that you absolutely need to have. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is easily the cheapest quarterback on the slate. But we know he steps up his passing and especially rushing production in the playoffs, and the Chiefs’ run game has been miserable lately. If the Bills put up some points, Mahomes will need to let loose to keep up … if he still can. Allen can be played naked or in a stack, while Mahomes is essentially a must-stack with at least one of his weapons. 

Running Backs

Behind Barkley, James Cook is clearly the second-best back on this slate, even in a very tough matchup. His usage isn’t as good as his fantasy production would imply, but it is still better than every other non-Saquon RB available. With that said, fitting both him and Barkley can be tough, and I would certainly rather have Saquon. Cook has relied on elite efficiency all season, and that may be harder to find against the best run defense in the league. Ty Johnson is also involved enough, especially in the receiving game, to be worth considering, but keep in mind that his floor is very low. I’m not playing Ray Davis. The rookie scored a TD last week, but he played just five snaps. For the Chiefs, Isiah Pacheco is clearly not himself since returning from injury. He could fall into the end zone, so he’s not a complete must-fade, but I don’t think I will have him in any lineups. I would much rather play the slightly more expensive price for Kareem Hunt, who beats Pacheco in both volume and efficiency at this point. Samaje Perine didn’t score a fantasy point last week, but he’s at least worth considering this week. The Bills’ defense is very bad against receiving RBs, and Perine’s passing-down role should be more relevant in a more competitive environment. With that said, I’ll still probably do my best to avoid playing both him and Johnson if possible.

Wide Receivers

For the Bills, Khalil Shakir is really the only receiver with any kind of floor. He should take advantage of the Chiefs’ defense being weak against slot receivers. With that said, he does project to be popular and, although it easily led Buffalo’s receivers, his 65% route participation rate in the Divisional Round isn’t exactly ideal. He’s playable but not a must-play. The rest of Buffalo’s receivers are all very risky, as none of them even reached a 50% route participation rate last week. My favorite option is Keon Coleman, but Curtis Samuel, Amari Cooper, and Mack Hollins are all worth throwing darts at. On the Chiefs’ side, Xavier Worthy was the only receiver to catch a pass last week … and even he somehow only had four air yards on six targets. With that said, Worthy has essentially become the Chiefs’ run game, and he still has big-play upside, too. He’s one of my favorite plays this week. I also really like Marquise/Hollywood Brown, who posted a 71% route participation rate and did see 67 air yards on his two targets last week, although he failed to record a catch. He is cheap and  absolutely racked up targets on a per-route basis in his two regular-season appearances. DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster are similar to the Bills’ ancillary receivers — they’re viable punts, but low participation rates mean they have zero floor. 

Tight Ends

Last week, Dawson Knox ran one more route and saw the same amount of targets as Dalton Kincaid, although neither Bills TE reached a 50% route participation rate. On the bright side, the Chiefs’ defense is a very soft matchup for tight ends. I strongly prefer Knox, who is cheaper and should be less popular, but I must admit I have long been a Kincaid doubter — both are valid plays. The Chiefs also have two TEs worth considering. I’m not entirely sold on the narrative that Travis Kelce is just entirely back to his dominant self for the playoffs (a lot of his production last week was thanks to some terrible tackling and a broken-play TD), but he still projects better than any other tight end on this slate. Noah Gray also saw enough involvement last week (three targets on a 36% participation rate) to be worth considering on a slate like this.

Defenses

I’m honestly less excited about both the Chiefs’ defense and the Bills’ defense than the two in the other game. Both of these quarterbacks are just so good at avoiding mistakes, and neither defense is particularly impressive statistically. With that said, on a slate this small with no true standout options, I recommend just putting in whatever defense best fits your build and crossing your fingers. 

Lineups

DraftKings

Cash Game

Even more so than in tournaments, there’s no way I’m building a cash lineup without Barkley. I also think it’s worth paying up for Kelce, who has a substantial projection advantage over every other TE on the slate. Let’s get some value by doing a two-TE build with Knox in the flex. I also want to slam in three WR1s: McLaurin, Worthy, and Shakir. If we add in Hunt at RB2, all that is left to decide on is QB and DST. The options are Mahomes and the DST of your choice or Hurts and a cheaper DST; both are valid. 

Tournament

With how dominant the Eagles’ defense has been and how lackluster their offense (outside of Saquon) has been, I like the idea of completely fading the first game (again, outside of Saquon). If we’re going to assume all the points come in the Chiefs/Bills game, we essentially have to get in Josh Allen. I also think getting in Cook, Worthy, Shakir, and Kelce is essentially a no-brainer. If we include Knox again for value, that is very doable and should capture the vast majority of touches in the AFC game. All that is left is a DST and a final WR spot — we can add to our Bills stack with one of the many options there, lean more into the KC side with Hollywood, or even take a punt back at the other game with Dyami or Dotson. 

FanDuel

Cash Game

Saquon, of course. Let’s also get in Dyami and Shakir — I know I was suspicious of them above, but they should see decent usage and are slightly cheaper on FanDuel. I’m also going to go straight back to Worthy, who might just be my favorite play of the whole slate. Kelce as the highest-floor option at tight end is also an obvious pick. Paying down for Ekeler isn’t as appealing in the Half-PPR format, but he still sticks out as a solid option. If we then get in Cook for some volume at FLEX, we are left with just QB and DST. With the more variable DST pricing on FanDuel, we can get all the way up to Allen or go down to Hurts, depending on our defense. 

Tournament

Since we stacked the Bills/Chiefs game on DK, let’s go the other way here. Especially in Half-PPR, A.J. Brown just needs one big play to hit, and we know he’s capable of it. If he breaks that big play, there’s a decent chance Hurts comes along for the ride. Of course, we’ve already got Saquon in there, so that’s a solid three-piece Eagles stack. We can also do a triple bring-back with Ekeler, McLaurin, and Ertz. For the last WR spot, I love Coleman, who is far cheaper on FD than anywhere else. That leaves us with just a FLEx and DST — there are plenty of ways to finish things off. 

Yahoo

Cash Game

Once again, we’ll start things off with two players who are head and shoulders above other options at their positions in Barkley and Kelce. The Bills’ defense as the cheapest option on the board is also a no-brainer. Even though it feels wrong to play someone who just dropped a literal zero in cash games, I can’t pass Hollywood at $14. And, as much as I absolutely hate clicking his name, I also don’t think I can pass Kincaid at $11. With that said, Samuel had essentially the same role as Kincaid last week and has more juice with the ball in his hands, so let’s get him in also at $11. We’ve saved enough cash to get in Cook, whose floor is far higher than any other non-Barkley RB available. I’ve only actually left one spot open, but there are plenty of options — Shakir, AJB, Smith, and Worthy are all in our price range. 

Tournament

The only quarterback I haven’t used yet is Daniels, so let’s go ahead and build a lineup around him here. McLaurin is a must, and let’s put Zaccheaus in for now. If the Commanders are moving the ball, the Eagles might have to pass, so we can go ahead and get in a shockingly cheap AJB and the Commanders’ defense. However, this lineup is now hugely expensive, so I’m going to do the unthinkable and leave Saquon Barkley out of this lineup. The only other RBs who I see with any real chance to keep up with him are Cook and Hunt, so let’s get them in. Now, all let’s left is our TE (Kincaid or Knox) and a WR spot (Hollywood or a cheap Bills WR).