The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots

Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.

Source of my ownership and simulations to find pivot suggestions: https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger

Draftkings 4 Game Slate

Quarterback:
Ownership is focused on Goff and Daniels as the QBs in the game with the highest projected over/under. This makes sense and also leads to a very easy thought process for me. Goff is an easy fade because of the strength of the Lions run game. The Lions simply do not need Goff to be extraordinary where Daniels will make or break the Commanders season tonight. Weather and game script lead Daniels to be the highest projected scoring QB and a positive leverage play. Goff is the biggest negative leverage play of the weekend. 

Weather concerns will push back the ownership of all the other QBs, and though it’s been proven that Allen or Jackson can single handedly win GPPs I will play almost exclusively Daniels.

If you are playing multiple lineups a shot on a completely overlooked HOU stack starting with Stroud is the clear way to go against the grain. I am running 150 lineups for the 2 game slate and will be 75/25 Daniels/Stroud

Lock: Daniels
Pivot: Allen
Tipsy: Stroud
Avoid: Mahomes/Stafford

Running Back:
Ownership projections are calling out Gibbs as most owned followed by Monty. Pickins are slim at RB and I am not messing around much. I want 2 of Barkley/Henry/Gibbs in all lineups. I personally think Monty is a huge trap play and the Sims say he’s the most negative leverage play on the board. If I need to sneak anyone in besides the 3 big guys I am looking at Ekeler in a pure passing game script, Hunt because I don’t buy into Pacheco for a minute, and maybe a punt to a Ty Johnson but I don’t like it. 

I feel a theme coming on where the SIms say the Texans are gonna put up a closer fight than we think and if they do a VERY low owned Joe Mixon is going to be involved.

Lock: Barkley/Henry/Gibbs
Pivot: Mixon
Tipsy: Ekeler
Avoid: Montgomery

Wide Receivers:
A handful guys are hogging lineups, St. Brown, Hollywood Brown, Shakir, Worthy, Terry, Jameson, Puka, and DeVonta Smith. I can fully get behind Chalk in ASB, Terry, Puka, and Smith but the others are really just meh. Hollywood is nearly the worst leverage/chalk on the weekend, full fade. Top leverage again comes from the Texans with Nico blowing up the sims and Metchie as the best salary saver of the day. Shout outs to both Zaccheaus and Crowder to stack with Daniels as recency bias is clearly pushing towards Dyami Brown as the value pairing. If I am playing a KC wide out I lean Hopkins for TD equity but this really feels like a Kelce game.

Puka delivers the biggest punch for a pivot with Nico next. I know I am going to regret the lineups that I put him in but Kupp once again rates high in the pivot/leverage scales.

Lock: ASB, Terry, Puka
Pivot: Collins, Kupp
Value: DeVonta Smith, Kupp, Bateman, OZ
Tipsy: Metchie, Samuel
Avoid: KC wide outs

Tight Ends:
LaPorta, Kelce, Schultz and Ertz are highest owned in that order. Schultz is hard to ignore at his price and ownership and you can already see I love the WSH passing game so both he and Ertz are in play for me. If you car going contrarian in a few spots and can go high I like Kelce way more than LaPorta for the same reason I am off Goff, too much reliance on the running game and too many targets to go around between ASB and Jamo and him.

Gray isn’t in play for a punt for me and Cade Stover out means it really is almost all Ertz and Schultz for me.

Lock: Schultz, Ertz
Pivot: Kelce
Tipsy: Irv Smith (if you want to truly punt a spot)
Avoid: LaPorta

Defense:
The only unit not in play for me are the Rams. I am falling into the Texans the most for the price, but I want to get to the Ravens when I can.