NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 18

Week 18 is, for lack of a better word, weird. Many of the best teams in the league will be resting their top players, as they are already locked into a particular playoff seed (or pair of playoff seeds). Some teams seem to be planning on using a partial rest strategy, playing their starters for part of the game before pulling them early — this can make entire rosters untouchable for DFS purposes. Other teams will be waving the white flag from the jump — this theoretically provides value opportunities, but it’s hard to know which backups will see extended run and even harder to trust them. 

Thankfully, we at least have a massive 13-game slate. That means there are enough options to lean into the uncertainty by slamming in tons of backups and studs with questionable motivation or lean away from the uncertainty by drafting only players who definitely have something to play for … although the winning combo is probably some of both. Without further ado, let’s get right into it! 

Game Overviews

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Totals: Giants 17.5, Eagles 20.5

Here we already have our first massively rest-impacted game of the slate, as the Eagles have announced they will be resting many of their key players, including essentially everyone who is usually fantasy-relevant. With that in mind, it’s pretty embarrassing for the Giants that they are still projected to lose this one. There’s a chance that this is a hint that New York will also rest a few players, but they haven’t been playing for anything in months and have still played everyone, so I will assume their players are in until we get reports indicating otherwise.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts is 100% resting (and still in the concussion protocol), and it looks like Kenny Pickett will be given the day off, too. That leaves former Stanford QB Tanner McKee as the Eagles’ starter. He’s super cheap on all three sites, making him a theoretical value. Of course, this slate is absolutely loaded with value, so a super-cheap starting QB is nowhere near as exciting as it might be on a normal slate. The same applies to Drew Lock, if not even more so, as Lock is more expensive and on the team with the lower total. 

Running Backs

On the Giants’ side, I am assuming that Tyrone Tracy is playing. With that assumption, he is a bit of an intriguing play against the Eagles’ backups. My only hesitation is that this slate lends itself massively to a stars (elite players with reason to compete) and scrubs (backups projected for volume at low prices) build. Tracy, a mid-tier player with no reason to compete but also no reason to rest, kind of finds himself in the middle. With that said, he’s definitely playable, especially if we get 100% confirmation that he will see a full workload. On the Eagles’ side, Saquon Barkley is definitely resting. The question is how the Eagles will divide work between Kenneth Gainwell, Will Shipley, and potentially a practice-squad-player-to-be-named-later (Tyrion Davis-Price?). There’s a real chance that Gainwell is also rested. If he is (and it’s announced ahead of time), Shipley becomes an awesome value play. If we don’t get any more info about the workload split, I lean toward avoiding this backfield altogether — the risk isn’t worth the reward on a slate filled with value.  

Wide Receivers

Coming off a huge game and likely facing backup corners, Malik Nabers is one of the players potentially worth paying up for on this slate. However, he’s the only Giants receiver I would really consider this week. In a normal week, Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton might be value options, but they’re not too enticing with so many even cheaper WRs projected for real volume. Some of those cheaper receivers are right over on the Eagles’ side: Ainas Smith and Johnny Wilson are both at the minimum price on all sites (except Wilson on FD) and should start for the Eagles this week. Jahan Dotson is also a potential option, but he is more expensive than the other two and might be rested in his own right as the Eagles’ usual WR3. However, if we get confirmation that he will play, the former first-rounder is definitely the most theoretically talented of this trio. With that said, all three are capable of dropping complete zeroes, so proceed with caution.

Tight Ends

The Giants have not had a fantasy-viable tight end since Theo Johnson went down, and that doesn’t change this week. I also lean toward avoiding the Eagles’ TE situation. Tight end isn’t a position where starting can immediately make a player viable (even at the minimum price), and it’s also unclear whether Grant Calcaterra will be rested.

Defenses

The Giants’ defense is super cheap, making them a bit tempting against McKee and Co. However, that 20.5-point total is surprisingly high and well above many other teams on this slate, so New York is definitely risky. Even in a great matchup, I won’t be playing the Eagles’ defense, which will be without its best players. 

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Projected Totals: Bears 15.0, Packers 26.5

This is an interesting one. The Bears are one of many teams that land in the “nothing to play for, but that’s nothing new” bucket. As with the Giants, I will assume that means they are business as usual, but keep an eye out for any reporting between now and kickoff. Meanwhile, the Packers only have some marginal seeding implications to play for. Headlines indicate that they will play their starters, but I’m not as convinced that Matt LaFleur’s quotes indicate a 100% commitment to trying as the people writing these articles seem to be. In 2021, LaFleur played his starters for just a half as Green Bay had the one seed locked up. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something similar here. Overall, that uncertainty makes it very hard to want to play anyone from this matchup.

Quarterbacks

It’s hard to get behind Caleb Williams when the Bears’ total is this low. He does have theoretical upside for his salaries (especially if the Packers eventually pull their starters), but I still don’t love this spot. I also don’t want to play Jordan Love. His volume has been low in games where the Packers win; combining that with the chance that he doesn’t play a full game is enough to keep me off of him.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift is clearly the Bears’ RB1 and isn’t too expensive. With that said, Roschon Johnson is still involved, and I’m very not sold on Swift as a talent or the Bears’ offense as a whole. He’s playable, but I’m not going to do it. Meanwhile, we have the worst possible setup in the Packers’ backfield. Josh Jacobs is going to play, but he has openly said he does not expect to see a massive workload. Jacobs playing means we can’t confidently play his backups (Emanuel Wilson or Chris Brooks), but I certainly won’t be playing Jacobs either — there’s a real chance he only sees the field for one drive. 

Wide Receivers

Of all the players in this game, I’m probably most interested in D.J. Moore, who has seen at least a 25% target share in each of his last five games. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are both also playable, but DJM is easily my favorite of the bunch. I’m not playing any Packers receivers for the same reasons I’m not playing Love. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks all have low volume in the best of times, and a mostly meaningless game where they are big favorites is certainly not that. 

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet is an afterthought in the Bears’ offense, and Tucker Kraft is trending in the wrong direction with Luke Musgrave back. I’m not playing either of them.

Defenses

Once again, the uncertainty cuts both ways. I don’t want to play the Bears’ defense against a Packers team that still has a 26.5-point team total. But I also don’t want to play the Packers’ defense, which is too expensive for a team that might pull its starters at halftime. 

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Projected Totals: Panthers 19.5, Falcons 28.5

Of all the games on the slate, this is one of the easiest to parse in terms of motivation. The Falcons have to win to have any hope of making the playoffs, so they’ll be giving it their all. The Panthers are another team that is already eliminated and has been for weeks, so I expect them to also roll out their usual starters. 

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young isn’t super intriguing (although he is cheap on FanDuel). Unless you really believe in a Panthers stack against the Falcons’ admittedly weak secondary, there are better values on this slate. Michael Penix is a bit more interesting, as he is very cheap for a QB on a team with this high of a total. However, it’s easy to see the Falcons just leaning on the run game and not giving the rookie much volume to work with.

Running Backs

Miles Sanders will likely be back this week, joining Raheem Blackshear and Mike Boone in the Panthers’ backfield. I have to assume the former Eagle will be the Panthers’ lead back, and he is cheap for his potential workload. But he has also been massively inefficient all season and comes with quite a bit of risk. On the Falcons’ side, Bijan Robinson sets up as one of the most popular plays on the slate, for good reason. He’s expensive and there is some risk that the Falcons turn to Tyler Allgeier if they are up big, but Bijan is absolutely a good play if you can find the cash. 

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen is no longer as undervalued as he once was (except perhaps on FD). With that said, he has simply produced since returning from IR, and this is an excellent matchup. I’m also intrigued by Xavier Legette. The first-round rookie led the Panthers in targets on limited routes in his first week back last week — if he expands his role and keeps earning targets, he could smash at cheap prices. Of course, he also comes with massive risk, especially given his limited route participation rate from last week. Jalen Coker is also worth considering thanks to the great matchup and his low prices. On the Falcons’ side, it’s all about Drake London. He projects to be heavily rostered as a pay-up receiver, with good reason. Darnell Mooney is also potentially viable, especially if you are stacking this game. Ray-Ray McCloud saw his usage drop last week, taking him out of the running as a value play.

Tight Ends

Neither Tommy Tremble nor Ja’Tavion Sanders is a viable play as long as they are both healthy. For the Falcons, Kyle Pitts did score a touchdown last week, and the Panthers are weak against tight ends. On the other hand, his route participation rates are still mostly well below the 70% mark. He is cheap enough to consider but very risky. 

Defenses

With so many teams packing it in, there’s no real reason to play either the Panthers’ defense or the Falcons’ defense.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Totals: Saints 14.5, Buccaneers 28.5

Another eliminated team with nothing to play for but also nothing to rest for, I expect we will see more of the same from the Saints … which isn’t a good thing. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, can stamp their ticket to the playoffs with a win. That motivation and this great matchup make them very attractive across the board.

Quarterbacks

I’m absolutely not going to recommend you play Spencer Rattler, even in a good matchup with Tampa Bay’s defense. Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, is one of very few top-tier fantasy quarterbacks (if not the only one) who will be giving it his all on this slate. That makes him very intriguing, even if his points-per-dollar projection can’t match some of this week’s value options. Of course, he will also be hugely popular. 

Running Backs

At this point, it looks as though Alvin Kamara will not play (although that is not confirmed). Meanwhile, Kendre Miller is also highly questionable with a concussion. Assuming they both miss, former Chief Clyde Edwards-Helaire will likely lead the Saints’ backfield. He is cheap, but I struggle to get excited about CEH on this terrible offense. On the Buccaneers’ side, Bucky Irving will be one of the most popular running backs on the slate, and I’m willing to eat that chalk. He has fully surpassed Rachaad White in this backfield and should see plenty of carries as the Buccaneers look to run it up on their divisional rivals. White himself is also potentially playable (especially on FD), but his passing-game role is likely less valuable as Tampa Bay should be up early. 

Wide Receivers

Logging multiple full practices this week, Chris Olave appears to be on track to return to the Saints’ lineup. In theory, this is a great spot for him against a beatable secondary and with zero competition for targets. In practice, it’s hard to trust him with Rattler under center. I’m definitely not playing any other Saints receivers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Kevin Austin) with Olave back. We have another super chalky play from the Buccaneers in Mike Evans. I do worry that people are reading a little too hard into some side narratives (the 1,000-yard season streak and contract incentives) for Evans this week. After all, this is a must-win game for the Buccaneers, and Evans only needs 85 yards to reach 1k. He can do that and still not pay off his high price tags. With that said, Evans is definitely still a viable option, especially with all the value on this slate. Jalen McMillan is also playable, but I won’t be doing it — he has been running very hot on touchdowns, and that has inflated his price/rostership combo. 

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson is cheap enough on DK to be a viable mid-range option; otherwise, I’m not playing him. I’m also unfortunately out on Payne Durham. He came through last week but fell to just a 51% route participation rate at the same time. 

Defenses

The Buccaneers’ defense is playable but expensive enough that I probably won’t do it, except on Yahoo. The Saints’ defense is not playable.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected Totals: Commanders 25.5, Cowboys 18.5

The Commanders technically have seeding to play for, and Dan Quinn has at least implied that he will be treating this as a normal game. Assuming we believe him, Washington is an enticing team to consider. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are another “playing for nothing, but that’s nothing new” team. They will likely roll out the same Cooper Rush-led offense we are used to. 

Quarterbacks

Assuming we trust that he will play a full 60 minutes, Jayden Daniels joins Baker as one of two elite QBs on this slate. It’s worth considering that, even if he does play, Daniels might be less willing to put his body on the line with rushing attempts than usual. But his dual-threat upside still makes him an undeniable option unless we receive more reason to believe that he will be limited. Cooper Rush is cheap but not particularly interesting. 

Update: Trey Lance will reportedly see “significant reps” in this game. If we get information that points to him playing the whole game, his fantasy-friendly skill set makes him a very intriguing value option. Otherwise, this report just makes Rush unplayable and the other Cowboys all slightly less appealing.

Running Backs

Brian Robinson is a decent mid-range option, although I find myself struggling to fit him in with the amount of tempting RB plays on the slate. If Austin Ekeler returns (which is looking more likely), I won’t be playing either Washington back. On the other side, Rico Dowdle will have an even stronger hold over the Cowboys’ backfield following their recent release of Ezekiel Elliott. I like him as a mid-range play, especially on DK. 

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin isn’t my favorite pay-up receiver this week, but he’s definitely in play. There aren’t many other receivers with his ceiling that we are fairly confident will be playing a full 60 minutes this week. I’m also interested in Olamide Zaccheaus, who has established himself as the Commanders’ WR2 in recent weeks. I’d be more excited on a normal slate, but he’s still a decent value option. On the Cowboys’ side, each of Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, and Jalen Tolbert posted exactly a 61% route participation rate last week. Cooks is the one who will likely see the most volume, but he is also the most expensive. I’d rather throw a dart at Turpin than Tolbert, as he is cheaper and more explosive. All three are potentially in play. 

Tight Ends

Coming off a two-TD day, Zach Ertz is still not particualrly expensive. Jake Ferguson is also relatively cheap for a tight end who has a legit shot to lead his team in routes and targets. Both are valid mid-range options. 

Defenses

I’m not particularly interested in either the Commanders’ defense or the Cowboys’ defense — there are simply better options this week with the number of teams resting their top players.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Projected Totals: Jaguars 19.5, Colts 24.5

This is the first game in which both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The Colts will be rolling out Joe Flacco with Anthony Richardson again sidelined by a back injury, while it seems as though it will be business as usual for the 4-12 Jaguars.

Quarterbacks

I have absolutely no interest in playing Mac Jones this week. There are QBs with more upside at much cheaper prices on this slate. However, I’m a bit interested in Joe Flacco. He was solid last week, and the Jaguars’ secondary is terrible. More importantly, his salaries are dirt cheap. 

Running Backs

At this point, it’s very hard to want to play either Tank Bigsby or Travis Etienne, even in a theoretically decent matchup. They are locked in an ugly 50/50 split on a very unproductive offense. On the other side, this is another good spot for Jonathan Taylor after back-to-back big games. The only concern is that he might see a smaller workload than usual with the Colts eliminated with their Week 17 loss. Still, he’s a valid pay-up option at RB in a week where there aren’t too many of those.  

Wide Receivers

This is a great spot for Brian Thomas Jr., who has been seeing absolutely elite usage over the last few weeks. He’s absolutely in play as someone to spend up for. I’m not interested in any other Jaguars receiver. Last week, all three Colts receivers were very cheap for a game with Flacco starting. Josh Downs was hugely popular, but it was Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce who smashed. Particularly concerning for Downs was that he had just a 60% route participation rate. With that in mind, I’m not hugely excited to go straight back to him, although he’s cheap enough that that is still an option. I prefer Pittman, even if it feels a bit like chasing points, and Pierce is also worth considering given this great matchup. 

Tight Ends

Brenton Strange saw his route participation bounce back somewhat last week, but he still has yet to return to the elite usage he saw in the first couple of games without Evan Engram. He’s a risky value option. The Colts haven’t had a fantasy-viable TE for years.

Defenses

The Colts’ defense is a little appealing on FanDuel, but otherwise I’m fading both them and the Jaguars’ defense. 

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Projected Totals: Texans 17.5, Titans 19.5

The Texans are one of the teams we can most expect to completely write this game off, as they are 100% locked into the AFC’s four seed. DeMeco Ryans has said that “everyone will be out there playing,” but these totals indicate that Vegas doesn’t really believe him. It seems likely that, even if they do suit up, the Texans’ key players won’t play deep into this game at all. The Titans have long been eliminated from the playoffs and are down so bad that they may be using a QB-by-committee approach this Sunday.

Quarterbacks

Based on current news, I think we can expect both these teams to play two quarterbacks on Sunday. The Texans will give C.J. Stroud some run before pulling him for Davis Mills, while the Titans have announced they will start Will Levis but reportedly also plan to involve Mason Rudolph. That makes all four of these guys completely unviable plays.

Running Backs

I expect Joe Mixon to see very little, if any, work on Sunday. That will leave Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale as the Texans’ top two running backs. We could also see another RB called up from the practice squad. Unless we get further confirmation about how this usage will shake out, I’m avoiding the whole situation. For the Titans, Tyjae Spears is out with a concussion, and Tony Pollard is reportedly a game-time decision. If Pollard is out, Julius Chestnut becomes an intriguing value play. He is super cheap and will likely get tons of volume against the Texans’ backups. If Pollard is in, I’m avoiding this backfield. 

Wide Receivers

The problem with the Texans’ approach of “we will play the starters (but probably not much” is that it leaves us without any viable plays. We obviously can’t play someone like Nico Collins given the real threat that he will be pulled early. But we also can’t chase value with backups who will get less than a full game of passes from Davis Mills. Maybe we can try and thread the needle with someone like John Metchie or Xavier Hutchinson, who could be involved with the starters but not important enough to rest? But I don’t have any real interest in attempting that. For the Titans, Calvin Ridley is playable. His usage is still great, and it’s more likely to turn into points against the Texans’ backups.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz has the same playing time concerns as the rest of the Texans, making him unplayable. Chigoziem Okonkwo has seen his involvement skyrocket recently, but he was a DNP on Friday. If he’s active, he’s mostly interesting as a value option on DK, where he is cheaper than the other two sites.

Defenses

The Titans’ defense is cheap enough (except on DK) to be tempting against the not-trying Texans. The Texans’ defense also won’t be trying, making them unplayable. 

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Projected Totals: Bills 20.0, Patriots 18.0

Here we have another embarrassing game where a team theoretically trying its hardest is an underdog to a team playing backups. The Patriots will be starting Drake Maye, while the Bills will be starting Josh Allen … probably just for one snap (or one drive) to keep his streak alive. Then, it will be the Mitch Trubisky show for Buffalo. 

Quarterbacks

Honestly, I’m a bit interested in Drake Maye. He has the rushing upside and talent to potentially rack up some points against the Bills’ backups. I’m not interested in one snap of Josh Allen or a full game of Mitch Trubisky. 

Running Backs

The Bills will probably be resting at least James Cook in this one. But will they also rest veteran pass-catching RB Ty Johnson or even rookie Ray Davis? Both are involved in their usual offense, so it’s possible. Hopefully, we get more clarity before the slate locks on this one. If we get reports that either Davis or Frank Gore Jr. (or Johnson, but that seems unlikely) will dominate this backfield, that player will be a very tempting value option. The Patriots did finally follow through on benching Rhamondre Stevenson for Antonio Gibson last week. Stevenson still technically started, but Gibson saw more snaps and 10 more carries. I’m almost tempted to play Gibson because the Bills won’t be trying, but I can’t commit thanks to the risk that Stevenson will reclaim a decent share of the work.  

Wide Receivers

I’ve seen some excitement for Tyrell Shavers, a UDFA sophomore who did score a big TD last week. The theory is that he could serve as the Bills’ WR1 and be a huge hit at the minimum price. However, I’m a little worried that Buffalo won’t dig quite that far down their WR depth chart. After all, they regularly use five WRs: Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel. Are we sure they even have enough roster slots to rest all five of those guys? Especially with Trubisky under center, I lean toward avoiding the Buffalo passing game entirely. For the Patriots, the obvious play is Demario Douglas. After weeks of playing a part-time role, he rocketed up to a 94% participation rate last week. To be fair, Kayshon Boutte also still ran a ton of routes, but Douglas has been the far better target earner all season, so he is my preferred option of the two as a value play.

Tight Ends

I’m not playing a Buffalo tight end — Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are stuck in an ugly committee even before we get into the whole resting issue. Meanwhile, Austin Hooper has cut just enough into Hunter Henry’s usage that I’m not particularly interested in either of them. 

Defenses

The Patriots’ defense is cheap enough to be a bit intriguing as a value option against Trubisky. Even in a good matchup, I’m not paying up for the Bills’ defense, which will be resting its key players.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Projected Totals: Chiefs 13.5, Broncos 25.5

This is essentially a win-and-in game for the Broncos, so they will be giving their all. It is fully meaningless for the Chiefs, who have already officially announced that they will be resting multiple key players. 

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix is at least worth considering against a Chiefs defense that will not be its usual self. He hasn’t run as much lately but does still have some dual-threat upside. I’m not playing Carson Wentz against the Broncos’ elite (and motivated) defense.

Running Backs

The Chiefs have already ruled out Isiah Pacheco, and Kareem Hunt is listed as doubtful. That leaves Samaje Perine and Carson Steele as the only active backs on the Chiefs’ roster. I wouldn’t be surprised if Perine, who plays a passing-down role in the Chiefs’ usual offense, is also rested. If so, especially if we get confirmation ahead of the game, Steele is appealing as a volume play at super low prices. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ backfield is a huge mess, with Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams, and even Michael Burton all involved seemingly at random. I’m not playing any of them.

Wide Receivers

The Chiefs will likely be resting all of their usual receivers. For some reason, the consensus seems to be that Nikko Remigio, a second-year UDFA with zero career catches, will be the team’s WR1. But, given his huge projected rostership, I’d rather pivot to Justyn Ross or even former Patriot Tyquan Thornton as a minimum-priced KC WR option. Of course, now that I’ve said that, I’m sure Remigio will pop off. There’s also a chance that none of these guys is worth playing — Wentz isn’t good, and the Broncos’ defense is. The Chiefs are also another team that usually involves enough receivers that there is a chance someone you’ve heard of actually plays snaps (Justin Watson?). For the Broncos, Courtland Sutton is 100% in play. Marvin Mims will also be popular after a big week, but I simply can’t get behind playing a WR who hasn’t posted a route participation rate above 50% all season. 

Tight Ends

Assuming the Chiefs rest both Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, former Cowboy Peyton Hendershot is in play at the minimum on all sites. I’m slightly more comfortable punting TE than WR, as the standards (and salaries) are simply much lower, so he is definitely intriguing. The Broncos have no fantasy-relevant TE.

Defenses

The Broncos’ defense is a great play, especially on DK (they’re very expensive on the other two sites). This is a good unit playing for a playoff berth against a team starting backups with zero to play for. What’s not to like? The Chiefs’ defense is not in play.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Projected Totals: 49ers 19.5, Cardinals 23.5

Here we have another dual of already-eliminated teams, as what was shaping up to be an epic race for the NFC West title ended with a whimper. The 49ers have ruled out Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel but appear (for now) to be planning on playing the rest of their usual starters. It is a similar story for the Cardinals, who will be without James Conner due to injury but should still try their hardest to end the season with a win.

Quarterbacks

Joshua Dobbs is the value QB of the slate. He is at the minimum price on all three sites, in a good system, and has rushing upside. What’s not to like? Kyler Murray is also definitely playable. He’s been up and down all season, but his potential ceiling is more valuable on a slate like this where so few QBs have truly elite ceilings. 

Running Backs

It’s easy to overlook him due to the other RBs on this slate and the 49ers’ low total, but I like this spot for Isaac Guerendo. He isn’t too expensive and has performed whenever he has been given volume, which should certainly happen this week with Purdy sidelined. However, he has nothing on Michael Carter in terms of points-per-dollar projections. With Conner and Trey Benson out, Carter is obviously one of the best plays of the slate on DK, and he’s in a great spot on the other sites as well.   

Wide Receivers

Assuming he plays, I like Jauan Jennings this week. He and Dobbs were actually college teammates, and he should see extra work with Deebo out. Ricky Pearsall exploded last week, but he was an afterthought in the 49ers’ offense in weeks prior, so I’m not too interested in chasing those points. For the Cardinals, I don’t think Marvin Harrison Jr. will end his disappointing rookie season with a bang. The 49ers’ defense has been the toughest matchup for receivers all season.  

Tight Ends

I do think he is a real threat to sit, and missing Purdy doesn’t help. But assuming he is playing, George Kittle still has an elite ceiling and is an intriguing pivot off the other expensive tight ends who project to be more heavily rostered. Speaking of those other expensive TEs, Trey McBride is still definitely in play. He finally scored a receiving TD last week and his volume is second to none at the TE position.

Defenses

The Cardinals’ defense is cheap and does project to be low-rostered. If we get more signs that the 49ers are calling it a season (i.e., Kittle being ruled out), they become an intriguing play against the Passtronaut. I’m not interested in the 49ers’ defense. 

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Projected Totals: Dolphins 19.5, Jets 19.5

Technically, the Dolphins are one of the teams with the most to play for on this slate. They are eliminated with a loss but could still squeak into the playoffs with a win. However, they will be without Tua Tagovailoa and will probably not make the playoffs even if they do win. Meanwhile, the Jets have absolutely nothing to play for. Will Aaron Rodgers bench himself again or will he try to put up some stats in what may be his final NFL game? Who knows. 

Quarterbacks

In theory, Tyler Huntley is cheap for a rushing QB with good weapons, especially on DraftKings. In practice, I would much rather play Dobbs in the same mold — the 49ers even have an identical team total to the Dolphins despite having infinitely less to play for. I do think there is some viability to building a team around Aaron Rodgers (with his old friend Davante Adams, of course) and hoping he tries to pad his stats. But there is also a risk that he forces his 500th touchdown pass and then simply shuts it down. Even if he does try to have a big game, does he have that in him against a tough Miami defense? I’m not playing Rodgers outside of a very specific lineup built around a vintage performance. 

Running Backs

Last week, Breece Hall played less than 50% of the Jets’ snaps, saw 53% of the RB rushes, ran 32% of the routes and posted just a 3% target share. He’s not playable on that workload, and the rest of the work was split evenly enough between Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis to make them both unplayable as well. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane is simply not the same player without Tua. I do think there is a chance that he still gets there on elite receiving volume alone, but he’s a much riskier option than usual.

Wide Receivers

With a backup quarterback against a still-tough Jets pass defense, I’m not particularly interested in Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. For New York, I do like Davante Adams in a “one last ride” stack with Rodgers, and he has seen such elite volume that he is playable on his own as well. Garrett Wilson, meanwhile, only managed to finally score points on a TD pass from Tyrod Taylor after Rodgers pulled himself out of the game last week. He’s cheap and talented enough to still be in play, but I probably won’t do it myself.

Tight Ends

With Tua out last week, Jonnu Smith saw just three targets. Even worse, his route participation rate fell to 57%, his lowest mark since Week 10. I’m not too interested in him given that his salaries are still quite high. Tyler Conklin runs just enough routes that I still feel obligated to mention him, but he’s not playable. 

Defenses

The Dolphins’ defense is too expensive to be playable in a just-okay matchup on this slate. The Jets’ defense is cheaper and could take advantage of Huntley, so they’re worth considering if their salary fits your build. 

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Projected Totals: Seahawks 22.5, Rams 16.5

The Rams theoretically have something to play for, but Sean McVay has already announced that all of their key fantasy players, not to mention half their offensive line, will be taking this week off. The Seahawks have been eliminated but theoretically plan to play out this game as usual. Honestly, there’s a lot to like about both sides of this game. The Seahawks get the bonus of playing against backups, while the Rams’ backups will get volume and are all very cheap.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith is cheap and could take advantage of the Rams’ backups. But the Seahawks’ total isn’t that high, and his production has really slowed down over the second half of the season as Seattle has leaned more into the running game. He’s a decent mid-range option (including for stacks) but nothing more. I’m not playing Jimmy Garoppolo, who isn’t even that cheap for a backup playing with backup receivers behind a backup O-line.

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker is done for the season, leaving Zach Charbonnet as Seattle’s lead RB. He is definitely in play, as he could see an excellent workload against what should be the Rams’ backup defense. On the other side, Blake Corum is also in play. He will be playing as part of a full backup offense, but he is very cheap and should see excellent volume. 

Wide Receivers

Both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are in play this week. JSN has been more productive recently, but Metcalf is cheaper across the board and could certainly break a big play or two. They can be played either alone or in stacks with Geno (and/or each other). I also like the Rams’ backup receivers: TuTu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, and Jordan Whittington. Atwell is probably the best of the three, but he is marginally more expensive and there is some slight risk the Rams will rest him if possible. All three are playable as punt options.

Tight Ends

Neither of these teams has a playable tight end.

Defenses

I’m not playing the Rams’ defense, but the Seahawks’ defense against Jimmy G and a backup O-line is a very tempting option. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Projected Totals: Chargers 23.5, Raiders 17.5

Let’s start with the easy team: The Raiders are eliminated from the playoffs, as they have been since Week 1 (don’t fact-check that). They will presumably be playing the same as they have all season. Things are more complicated for the Chargers, however. If the Steelers, who play on Saturday, beat the Bengals, LA will be locked into the sixth seed. If that happens, all bets are off. If the Steelers lose, the Chargers can earn the fifth seed with a win, which they will likely attempt to do. I will assume a Pittsburgh loss for the purpose of this blurb, as the scenarios where Pittsburgh loses depend entirely on what reports we get from the Chargers on Sunday morning. 

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert is playable, especially on DraftKings, where he is non-negligibly cheaper than the other two sites. There’s also a world in which Aidan O’Connell, stacked with one or both of his top weapons, is a viable option. This is especially true if the Chargers are not playing for anything. With that said, I probably won’t have any AOC teams. 

Running Backs

J.K. Dobbins is a bit more expensive than I would have hoped, but he’s still a very viable mid-range option against a bad Raiders defense. For the Raiders, Ameer Abdullah has been ruled out, meaning Alexander Mattison will be back in a bell cow role by process of elimination. He’s cheap enough (especially on FD) that that is an enticing prospect. With that said, the Chargers’ defense is solid and the Raiders are terrible, so proceed with caution (especially if LA still has something to play for). 

Wide Receivers

Ladd McConkey is the only Chargers receiver to really consider on this slate, but he is certainly playable coming off a huge game. The Raiders also only have one playable receiver, and his name is Jakobi Meyers. Meyers seems to let me down every time I play him, but it’s undeniable that he projects to have very solid volume for his price tag.  

Tight Ends

The Chargers don’t have a fantasy-viable tight end, but you’ve probably heard of the guy playing for the Raiders. Brock Bowers is nine receptions away from setting the all-time TE record. He’s absolutely in play despite huge price tags and high projected rostership.

Defenses 

The Chargers’ defense is too expensive for my liking, and I will only consider the Raiders’ defense if Pittsburgh wins and we are getting an Easton Stick/Taylor Heinicke game.

Final Thoughts

I’m not doing lineups this week, as the number of lingering questions makes it nearly impossible to build lineups before more news comes out on Saturday and Sunday morning. In fact, my number one recommendation for this final week of DFS is to double-check everything on Sunday morning. A surprise rest (or surprise activation) could easily change the whole slate on its head. 

Thank you to all of you for reading these articles each week (or even just once or twice). I hope you all have enjoyed the ride, and hopefully made some money along the way! If you’re sad that the season is already over, follow me on Twitter (this won’t help with the season being over, but you should do it anyway), stay tuned for playoff NFL DFS coverage from FantasyBlueprint, and make sure to check out our awesome NHL DFS articles if you haven’t already!