NFL DFS Building Blocks Week 12
Welcome to Week 12’s DFS preview! Last week was an absolutely massive week for the main slate. I at least got to a Goff/ARSB stack in one tournament lineup, but not playing Taysom anywhere meant no huge hits. Jauan Jennings in just about every lineup worked out perfectly, at least. For Week 12, we’ve got six byes, meaning we have a 10-game main slate. Luckily, there are still plenty of tempting spots to attack. Let’s get started!
Game Overviews
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Projected Totals: Vikings 21.5, Bears 17.5
I was pleasantly surprised by Thomas Brown’s changes to the Bears’ offense in his first week as the offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, he gets a brutal matchup with an elite Vikings defense in his second week in charge. That makes Chicago’s weapons less appealing, and this isn’t a great spot for the Vikings’ offense, either.
Quarterbacks
There’s not much to like about Sam Darnold in a tough matchup. Caleb Williams is a bit more intriguing, as he is cheaper and might have some sneaky running upside — he recorded four designed rushing attempts in Week 11 after averaging 1.9 per game under Shane Waldron. But he still has a brutal floor against arguably the league’s best defense.
Running Backs
Both of the lead RBs in this game, Aaron Jones and D’Andre Swift, saw their workloads take a step back in Week 11. Roschon Johnson was much more involved in the Bears’ new offense, and Cam Akers is cutting more into Jones’ workload than Ty Chandler ever did. Of the two, I prefer Jones, who is simply the better player and on the more reliable offense (he’s more expensive than Swift, but not by too much). However, neither is a hugely appealing play this week.
Wide Receivers
This is a bad matchup, but Justin Jefferson is always someone you can consider putting in your lineup. With that said, he has yet to really pay off his truly elite prices this season (his best weekly finish was WR4 in Week 7), and the last two weeks have shown that he doesn’t have a guaranteed floor, either. Jordan Addison doesn’t see consistent enough volume to be more than a risky upside play in this matchup. For the Bears, I really want to chase the improvements to their offense, but it’s unclear who to do it with. D.J. Moore is the obvious choice, as Brown clearly made it a priority to get the ball in his hands with four screen passes and a carry in Week 11 … but he still trailed both Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen in total targets. All three are potential options, as the one place where the Vikings’ defense has struggled is against receivers, ranking as the fourth-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for the position. I lean towards playing either DJM (who is still the team’s clear WR1 in routes and does get the schemed look boost) or Odunze (who is the cheapest and has big-play upside), but Allen could certainly have a big day as well.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet saw his highest snap share of the season last week, but I still find it hard to see him doing much with all three receivers healthy (he saw a 10% target share last week). T.J. Hockenson has still yet to run a full complement of routes since returning from injury. If he does, his price is arguably a bargain, but if he doesn’t, he’s a rough play. This makes him high-risk but potentially high-reward.
Defenses
With the improvements we saw from the Bears’ offense last week, I lean towards fading the Vikings’ defense at high prices and projected rostership, but they’re certainly a viable play (Caleb did still take three sacks in Week 11). The Bears’ defense is talented and cheap enough (especially on DK) to be worth considering as well.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Projected Totals: Texans 24.5, Titans 16.5
The Titans have looked slightly more competent on the offensive side of the ball in recent weeks, while the Texans are back to full-ish strength with the return of Nico Collins. I’m a little surprised the projected spread for this one is so lopsided, but there are still intriguing plays on both sides.
Quarterbacks
When a player is relatively much cheaper on Yahoo, it’s usually a sign that they have been underperforming expectations all season — that is the case for C.J. Stroud. Even with Collins back, I’m not convinced he has the ceiling or the floor to be a play at top-10 prices. He’s worth considering at that lower Yahoo price, though. I find myself saying every single week that Will Levis is intriguingly cheap given his potential upside. With that said, I don’t think this is the best week to play him against a tough Texans defense.
Running Backs
Tyjae Spears is out this week in the concussion protocol, meaning we should be back to a truly elite workload for Tony Pollard. Even in a tough matchup, he’s a great play this week. He should pay off his prices as long as Tennessee’s offense doesn’t completely implode. Speaking of elite workloads, Joe Mixon has been seeing absolutely incredible usage all season. The Titans’ run defense is tough, but he has the volume and touchdown equity to be in play regardless, especially given this spread.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins didn’t play anywhere near a full set of snaps in his return to the field last week, and he still tied for the team lead with seven targets. He is a great pay-up option every week he’s available. However, with Collins back, I’m fading Tank Dell (and John Metchie, if anyone cares). Dell simply hasn’t produced enough with either Collins or Stefon Diggs healthy to justify his salaries. On the Titans’ side, I am absolutely going back to Calvin Ridley, even after he let me down last week. His usage over the last few weeks has been that of a top-10 receiver, and Houston is an above-average matchup for receivers. With that said, I’m not chasing the points with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — he caught the huge TD last week, but his underlying usage actually took a step back.
Tight Ends
Neither Dalton Schultz nor Chigoziem Okonkwo makes for a particularly appealing play this week. Okonkwo isn’t running enough routes in the Titans’ offense, and Schultz is too expensive given his lack of ceiling.
Defenses
The Titans’ defense projects to be fairly popular as a pay-down option. I see the logic, as they are talented and Houston hasn’t been too dominant, but I also don’t love it. The Texans’ defense is expensive enough that they will need the early-season turnover-machine version of Will Levis to return to be a smash play.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected Totals: Lions 29.5, Colts 20.5
These two teams are both coming off great games but by very different standards. The Lions absolutely destroyed the Jaguars, running up the score in slate-breaking fashion. Meanwhile, the Colts edged out a win over the Jets as Anthony Richardson played probably the best game of his NFL career.
Quarterbacks
On the one hand, Anthony Richardson showed last week that he does still have the elite dual-threat potential we were all so excited about coming into the season. On the other hand, his prices are up slightly, and this matchup is much worse. He can be played, but you’ll almost certainly need another rushing TD or two (potentially in garbage time?) to feel good about the results. As for Jared Goff, we have to at least consider a QB with a 29.5-point team total coming off a monster game. But his price is up, and the Colts’ defense isn’t at the same level of incompetence as the Jaguars’. I think it’s more likely that Goff comes back to Earth as the Lions lean on the run game than he puts up a second straight monster performance … but it’s not impossible, as Ben Johnson seemingly gets to choose how to distribute at least four touchdowns each week.
Running Backs
A fair chunk of those touchdowns usually go to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. They are both valid plays essentially every week. Gibbs brings extra explosiveness and a correspondingly higher price, while Montgomery has a slightly lower floor/ceiling combo but just as good of a chance to spike two-plus TDs. Jonathan Taylor has been seeing truly elite usage without much to show for it over the last few weeks. It’s hard to see him truly exploding against the Lions’ elite run defense, but his combination of usage and talent is very tempting at non-top-tier prices.
Wide Receivers
Like with Goff, I lean toward fading Amon-Ra St. Brown after he broke the slate in Week 11. He certainly could do it again, but we’ve seen his overall usage this year be much more middling — I’m not paying WR1 overall prices for 68.5 receiving yards per game. I would rather play the Lions’ passing game through Jameson Williams, who only needs one huge play to pay off much cheaper (although still not cheap) prices. With that said, Williams comes with a very low floor, especially with Sam LaPorta back healthy. I’m also a little skeptical of the Colts’ receivers. Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce are both unappealing to begin with (although MPJ is super cheap on Yahoo). And Josh Downs is an incredible talent, but last game was the first truly good outing he has had with Richardson under center. The only reason I’m not full-fading Downs at high prices is that the Lions are very soft against slot receivers in particular.
Tight Ends
I’m tempted by Sam LaPorta, who looked to be on his way to a re-breakout game before exiting early in Week 10. The Colts’ defense is also soft against tight ends, making him even more enticing at much lower salaries than where he began the season. Of course, the risk is that LaPorta’s Week 10 start was a fluke and he still hovers around an 11% target share in this offense. There’s no Colts TE worth playing.
Defenses
I don’t know if I would play the Colts’ defense at 0$ against this Lions offense. The Lions’ defense projects to be hardly rostered, which makes sense given their high price, but I also don’t hate throwing a dart and hoping Richardson’s good outing last week was a mirage.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Projected Totals: Dolphins 27.5, Patriots 18.5
The Dolphins seem to have a bit of their groove back (except Jaylen Waddle), coming off two straight wins. Meanwhile, the vibes are good in New England with Drake Maye showing promise, but this is still a straight-up bad football team.
Quarterbacks
We still haven’t seen Tua Tagovailoa unlock the huge ceiling he has had in the past under Mike McDaniel so far this season. He’s cheap enough to make that ceiling worth chasing, but this doesn’t necessarily seem like the week he will hit it against an overmatched Patriots team. Drake Maye has been running the ball a ton and is cheap, but his offensive situation and this tough matchup make it hard to see him providing a truly week-winning outcome.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane projects to be massively rostered, and I am happy to eat that chalk. His usage has been absolutely absurd, and this is a great matchup. Both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright don’t see enough work to threaten his value (or be viable themselves). On the Patriots’ side, Rhamondre Stevenson has been seeing great usage and is relatively cheap, especially on FD. With that said, I find it hard to get excited about putting him in my lineup.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle is the fourth option in this Miami offense, and his price hasn’t fallen far enough to reflect that. With that said, he still has the talent and explosiveness to be a tournament option, especially on Yahoo, where he is cheapest. Tyreek Hill has also seen his role reduced from previous years, but he at least still sees consistent usage. He’s a solid option this week in a matchup that may benefit him and Waddle schematically. For the Patriots, there are only so many weeks I can say, “Kayshon Boutte is a good pay-down option with his elite route participation,” and then watch him do absolutely nothing before giving up hope … but I’ll do it at least one more week. DeMario Douglas has been more productive than Boutte, but a higher price and lower route participation means I’ll avoid him — it’s not like he has shown some ceiling Boutte hasn’t, as he has only one top-30 finish all season.
Tight Ends
This game features two of the best surprise tight ends of the season in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. They are actually very comparable in terms of usage: Henry has a 17% target share and a 19% air yards share, while Jonnu is at 16% and 14%. Smith is on a much better offense and brings more juice after the catch to make up for his slightly worse volume. They are both in play this week as mid-range options.
Defenses
The Dolphins’ defense can definitely be played, as they aren’t too expensive and Maye ranks near the top of the league in both sack rate and turnover-worthy-play rate. The Patriots’ defense is less appealing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
Projected Totals: Buccaneers 23.5, Giants 17.5
Both of these teams are on big losing streaks, but they are trending in very opposite directions. The Bucs are getting Mike Evans back to boost their offense heading into a very soft stretch of games, while the Giants are in the “lose your locker room by benching (and then cutting) your best QB for financial reasons” stage of their rebuild.
Quarterbacks
Here’s the thing. Tommy DeVito is absurdly cheap (especially at the minimum on DK), has some rushing upside, and is in a great matchup. It’s not going to be pretty, but he has a good chance to pay off his salary. On the other side, this is also a decent spot for Baker Mayfield. He is still the QB4 in points per game this season and gets a huge boost with the return of Evans.
Running Backs
Both of these teams have been weak to RBs this season, but they’ve done it in very different ways. Tampa’s defense has actually been above-average on the ground, but they are the worst team in the league at defending RBs in the passing game. Tyrone Tracy has seen great usage recently, including as a receiver, making him a worthwhile option. Meanwhile, the Giants are the classic case of a mediocre run defense combined with a terrible offense, leading to lots of rushing production from opponents. For me, that makes this seem more like a Bucky Irving game than a Rachaad White game. They are similarly priced, but Irving is clearly the better rusher, while White excels in the receiving game. White is closer in DK’s full-PPR format, but I prefer Irving elsewhere.
Wide Receivers
Tampa is one of the softest defenses against receivers in the league, so the big question is whether DeVito can keep New York’s offense afloat. However, Malik Nabers is still priced like a top-five option, and I’m not sure I trust DeVito enough to pay that price. I also don’t want to play Wan’Dale Robinson, as we don’t know if DeVito will love him as much as Danny Dimes did. That leaves Darius Slayton, but he’s not cheap enough to be particularly tempting either. However, I definitely want to consider Mike Evans. He is seemingly completely healed from his hamstring injury and should see extra targets with Chris Godwin done for the year. I got absolutely burned by Jalen McMillan the last time we saw the Buccaneers, as he was listed as active and had even been a full participant in practice but didn’t play a single snap. There’s potentially value to be had with one of him, Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, or even Ryan Miller, but I’m not going to chase it this week.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton’s price has come up, and the Giants are the toughest matchup in the league for opposing TEs. I’m fading him, especially with Evans back to reclaim his role as the alpha in this offense. Theo Johnson is cheap enough and running enough routes to be interesting in case DeVito takes a liking to him, but that’s a complete dart throw, so proceed with caution.
Defenses
The Buccaneers‘ defense is expensive but could be worth it — DeVito took sacks at an unprecedented rate in 2023. The Giants’ defense is cheap and good at putting pressure on opposing QBs, but I’m not interested in them against a Tampa offense that has been very effective.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected Totals: Commanders 27.5, Cowboys 16.5
The Commanders have regressed some over the last few weeks, but this is a get-right spot if there ever was one. Losing Dak Prescott killed any semblance of hope that the Cowboys had, and they are now one of the worst teams in the league on both sides of the ball.
Quarterbacks
The Commanders’ defense has regressed, but I’m still not playing Cooper Rush. Jayden Daniels is more interesting, but he has clearly been running less while dealing with a rib injury. In a game that the Commanders should win easily, that trend will likely continue, and he’s certainly not worth QB1 overall prices without rushing upside.
Running Backs
The Cowboys said coming into last week that Rico Dowdle would see more touches, and they still proceeded to give Ezekiel Elliott a ton of work down the stretch. I’m not playing either of them. For the Commanders, Brian Robinson is very interesting, especially on DK where he is very cheap. He should run all over a Dallas defense that was just gashed by Joe Mixon. Austin Ekeler has been more involved of late, but his price is up and a game where the Commanders are 11-point favorites feels more like a spot for Robinson than him.
Wide Receivers
Is this a get-right spot for Terry McLaurin coming off his worst game of the season? Potentially, and he is absolutely in play. I also think Noah Brown is worth considering, as he is running tons of routes and his prices are still very low (especially on DK). CeeDee Lamb is the only Cowboys receiver to consider. He was solid even with Rush under center last week, but I struggle to convince myself to pay top-five prices for him in a tough matchup with terrible QB play.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz remains steadily involved in the Commanders’ offense, and he is another member of a surprisingly solid set of mid-range TE options for this week. With Jake Ferguson ruled out with a concussion, Luke Schoonmaker is the top punt option at tight end for this week. His prices are minuscule, and he saw six targets last week after taking over for Ferguson.
Defenses
The Commanders’ defense is absolutely in play as the Cowboys’ offense has been atrocious ever since Dak went out. The Cowboys’ defense is not an option.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Totals: Chiefs 27.5, Panthers 15.5
The Chiefs finally lost, and I feel that they will now begin taking the regular season even less seriously with the idea of an undefeated season off the table. Of course, they probably won’t need to take things seriously this week. Bryce Young has looked better since his return to the starting job, but the Panthers are still hopelessly outmatched in this one.
Quarterbacks
Even in a great matchup, there’s no way I’m paying top-three prices for 2024 Patrick Mahomes. He’s at least interestingly priced as the QB6 on Yahoo, but I’m still not too excited. As mentioned, Bryce Young has looked a bit more competent of late, and he is extremely cheap (especially on DK). However, this is not a good matchup and he still has yet to finish as even a top-15 fantasy QB once this season.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out for one more week, so this is an absolute smash spot for Kareem Hunt. His 2024 MO has been getting it done on volume and red-zone touches, and he should get plenty of both against the terrible Panthers. Chuba Hubbard is very cheap given his recent workload, but I can’t bring myself to play him this week. The Chiefs’ run defense is the best in the league, and Jonathon Brooks is at least more of a potential threat than Miles Sanders.
Wide Receivers
I’m absolutely fading DeAndre Hopkins at high projected rostership. He posted just a 51% participation rate and a 12% target share last week in a competitive matchup with the Bills — why would he be more involved against the lowly Panthers? I would even rather play Xavier Worthy, who brings similar upside and has actually been more involved in the Chiefs’ offense of late (for the record, I don’t love Worthy, either). Things are similarly unappealing on the Panthers’ side. We’ve got another risky rookie named Xavier in Xavier Legette, another veteran with a super unclear role in Adam Thielen, and Jalen Coker thrown in for good measure. Legette is the only one I can confidently project for a full route share, but he is also easily the most expensive. Thielen is super cheap on FD and Coker is cheap on DK, but they are still both dart throws.
Tight Ends
I’m worried about Travis Kelce, who posted easily his lowest route participation rate of the last month at just 69% in Week 11. He’s my least favorite of the four elite TEs this week, even in a good matchup (Update: Kelce jumps above George Kittle with Brock Purdy ruled out). However, I am intrigued by Ja’Tavion Sanders — the athletic rookie posted an 86% route participation rate the last time we saw the Panthers’ offense, and the Chiefs’ defense is very weak against tight ends. He’s a punt option.
Defenses
I’m not touching the Panthers’ defense, even at absolutely minimal prices. The Chiefs’ defense is obviously more intriguing as a good unit against a bad offense, but they are very expensive.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Totals: Broncos 23.5, Raiders 17.5
The Raiders will likely be missing both of their top two running backs this week, taking away playmakers (if you can call Zamir White and Alexander Mattison playmakers) from an already struggling offense. Meanwhile, Sean Payton appears to be deciding the Broncos’ running back usage by drawing names out of a hat … and it’s working.
Quarterbacks
It wasn’t very unimpressive as far as four-TD games go (he was pressured only six times and had a 4.0-yard ADOT), but Bo Nix sure did throw for four touchdowns last week. Combine that passing upside with his demonstrated rushing ability, and the rookie is suddenly a very interesting fantasy play. With that said, his salary is way up, so he’s only an okay option. Playing Gardner Minshew against this Broncos defense is asking for trouble.
Running Backs
With White and Mattison out, veteran third-down back Ameer Abdullah and rookie Dylan Laube will likely lead the way in the Raiders’ backfield. Abdullah has been lightly involved all season, while Laube has just one career offensive snap, and the veteran is reportedly in line to get the start. However, we know that Abdullah is not an exciting player at this point, while Laube at least has some mystery appeal. They are both absurdly cheap and therefore worth considering, but keep in mind that this is a brutal matchup. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ defense is a great matchup for Denver’s backfield; the question is who will get to take advantage of it. Javonte Williams was the lead back last week, but he was essentially entirely relegated to a passing-down role by Audric Estime the week before. Based on projected rostership, most DFS players are assuming Williams is still the main back — if that is the case, he is a good play in this matchup, and the receiving role means his floor isn’t completely zero. But I’m also tempted to take a shot or two on Estime who is cheaper and projects to be barely rostered; if he gets the hot hand against this Raiders defense, he could be a smash play.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton is the only Denver receiver I feel confident will run enough routes to be a viable play. He’s a fine option, although his price has gotten a bit high on Yahoo. The Raiders also have only one non-dart-throw WR option: Jakobi Meyers. Meyers saw by far his worst target share in the post-Davante Adams era last week, and this is a tough matchup. However, his overall volume has still been excellent recently, and he showed in Week 5 that he can use that volume to have a solid day against this elite secondary.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers is probably already the best receiving tight end in the league, and that means he’s always an option. So few players at the position have much in the way of ceiling or floor; he has both. The Raiders are very weak against tight ends, but Denver doesn’t have anyone prepared to take advantage of the matchup.
Defenses
The Broncos’ defense is shockingly cheap on DK at DST7, where they are a smash play. They’re the most expensive DST on the other two sites, which I won’t be paying for. The Raiders’ defense isn’t particularly appealing to me, as they aren’t a talented group and Nix has avoided mistakes well for a rookie QB.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Projected Totals: Packers 24.5, 49ers 21.5
The 49ers keep finding new ways to lose games, and every game from here on out is essentially a must-win if they want to make it back to the playoffs. At least they will get George Kittle back this week … but they are going to be without Brock Purdy. The Packers are sitting pretty with a likely Wild Card berth but will also need to start stacking wins if they want to push the Vikings or Lions for the NFC North crown.
Quarterbacks
So, is Purdy a system QB? Is Brandon Allen worth playing at bargain DFS prices? While I don’t think Allen will replicate anything close to what Purdy has been doing (especially with his legs), I do think the 49ers’ army of YAC weapons could help carry him to a playable outing at very low prices. Jordan Love is way more expensive on DK than either FD or Yahoo. Even on the two sites where his price is lower, he’s not super appealing against a 49ers defense that is still a below-average matchup for QBs despite some struggles this season.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs is coming off a huge game, and his price is fair. Purdy being out also slightly boosts his range of outcomes in terms of game script. He’s certainly worth considering. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey once again projects to be massively rostered despite RB1 overall prices (except on Yahoo). Once again, I lean toward fading him. He hasn’t quite looked like himself so far this season, and playing with Allen certainly isn’t a plus. With that said, CMC could see even more volume than his usual monster workload with Purdy out, so he’s certainly not a bad play.
Wide Receivers
I was ready to recommend Jauan Jennings again and try to buy the dip on Deebo Samuel, but they both get much less attractive with Purdy sidelined. Like CMC, Deebo could see extra work on screens and designed YAC opportunities, but having a competent QB is always better than not — I lean toward avoiding both Jennings and Samuel. For the Packers, I’m just going to keep fading Jayden Reed until he makes me regret it (and I’ll probably keep doing it after that). His usage is worse than his prices, and the 49ers’ defense is tough against receivers. Christian Watson is a bit more appealing, but I still can’t confidently claim that he has officially beaten out Dontayvion Wicks for a big enough role to be reliable. Both Watson and Reed are high-risk/high-ceiling plays; Wicks isn’t playable. Romeo Doubs doesn’t quite bring the big-play ceiling of his teammates, but he is the cheapest of the starting trio and the one most consistently on the field. That’s enough to make him my favorite Green Bay WR for this week.
Tight Ends
He did absolutely nothing with it, but Tucker Kraft led the Packers with an 85% route participation rate in Week 11. He’s a viable mid-range option at TE this week. George Kittle also takes a hit without Purdy, but I’m not quite as down on him as the other 49ers’ pass-catchers. The standards are simply lower at TE, and we know he only needs a couple of big plays to have a huge day. With that said, I still probably won’t play him in many places at top-tier prices with a backup QB.
Defenses
The Packers’ defense is a lot more intriguing with Allen under center. Kyle Shanahan and CMC are still scary enough that they aren’t a smash play, but they’re worth considering. I’m not playing the 49ers’ defense.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected Totals: Seahawks 23.5, Cardinals 23.5
This is a huge matchup for both teams, as the NFC West is incredibly tight right now. It’s also a matchup of two red-hot units as Kyler and the Cardinals’ offense take on an ascending Seattle defense.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith is temptingly cheap, although the Cardinals’ defense isn’t quite as soft as its reputation. The Seahawks still rank near the top of the league in pass rate over expected, so Geno could be due for a big game with all his weapons healthy (except maybe Noah Fant) in what should be a tight matchup. Kyler Murray is also certainly an option, except on Yahoo, where he’s priced way up. He has been playing excellently, and we all know the fantasy power of rushing QBs.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker has slowed down recently, but this could be a spot for him to break off a few of his trademark big plays — the Cardinals’ run defense is very beatable. His usage is still great, and his prices aren’t too bad, making him an option on all sites. James Conner joins his QB in being priced up on Yahoo, but he is a solid option on the other two sites.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is creeping closer and closer to DK Metcalf in pricing, but I’d still firmly rather have the veteran … except, ironically, on DK, where the full PPR scoring benefits JSN’s low-ADOT high-volume usage. Both are viable options, while Tyler Lockett has seen his role shrink enough to not be worth considering. I’m definitely into Marvin Harrison Jr. this week, although he does still have a more boom-or-bust profile than most top receivers. Still, this looks like a boom week in what could be a back-and-forth matchup. Michael Wilson is just a dart throw for stacks with Kyler at this point.
Tight Ends
With a couple of question marks around Kelce and Kittle missing Purdy, Trey McBride joins Bowers as my favorite pay-up TE on this slate. We haven’t gotten any truly massive games from McBride yet (mostly cause he hasn’t scored a single receiving TD), but his usage is arguably the best of any TE in the league. For the Seahawks, Noah Fant is listed as questionable. Regardless of whether he plays, I don’t have much interest in him or A.J. Barner for this week.
Defenses
I’m not planning on playing either of these two defenses. I’m slightly more tempted by the Cardinals’ defense than the Seahawks’ defense, as Geno does rank third among still-starting QBs in sacks per game, but there’s tons of risk there, too.
Lineups
DraftKings
Cash Game
In a cash game, where we’re not worried about ceiling, is where DeVito and Brandon Allen shine as starting QBs in not-terrible situations at the minimum. DeVito has rushing upside and a better matchup, but Allen has a much better team around him — pick your poison. I also want to slam in Hunt in a smash spot against the Panthers. We’ve saved some money, and I want to use it to pay up in three places: the Broncos’ defense, Brock Bowers, and De’Von Achane. We can actually double-down on playing Raiders against our own defense with Jakobi Meyers — he and Bowers could combine for well over 50% of the Raiders’ offense this week. That leaves three spots, which I like filling with mostly mid-range priced options: Pollard, Ridley, Sutton, JSN, MHJ, Metcalf, etc. There are plenty of good plays in the high-$5k to low-$6k range.
Tournament
I’m almost certainly going to regret this against a tough Minnesota defense, but I want to bet on the new usage we saw from Caleb Williams last week. I’ll pair him with D.J. Moore and pay up for Justin Jefferson coming back the other way. I also want to go back to Hunt, and we have to take advantage of Brian Robinson being way cheaper here than on the other two sites. Add in Boutte as a one-off cheap WR, and we have a lot of cash left to play with. I recommend paying up for an elite TE, which still leaves enough cash for a top flex (Collins? Achane? Gibbs?) and a solid defense.
FanDuel
Cash Game
Let’s start with Kyler up top, and you know I couldn’t go through a full set of lineups without at least one Calvin Ridley. Bucky Irving makes sense as a Half-PPR play, and this is the site where Jacobs is by far the cheapest, so there are our two RBs. I’m also going to pair Bucky with the Buccaneers’ defense, assuming Tampa absolutely steamrolls DeVito and Co. I also like scrolling down slightly at tight end for Henry, who should see at least a handful of targets. If we stick in Brian Robinson again (despite the higher price than on DK), we are left with two WR spots, plenty of cash, and plenty of options.
Tournament
Jordan Love stands out as undervalued on FD, so let’s just play him without any of his weapons and hope he spreads his production around. However, we will pair him with the Packers’ defense. Then, you know I have to get Ridley in at least once more, so let’s play him along with two insane workload RBs from that game in Pollard and Mixon. From there, I would like to get in Walker and McBride from the Seattle/Arizona matchup. That just leaves two WR spots; we won’t have too much cash to work with, but there are still plenty of options.
Yahoo
Cash Game
Let’s go back to the minimum-priced QBs here — again, take your pick of DeVito or Allen. As much as I want to fade CMC, I’m not going to ignore that insane workload as the RB4 in salary. I also am going to get in Hunt again, as it’s hard to see him not racking up the points against the poor Panthers. Let’s also add a bit more chalk in the form of Achane paired with the Dolphins’ defense. We’re going to need some value, so let’s take the underpriced MHJ as well as Boutte (he has to do something one day, right?). That just leaves a TE and WR spot, and there are plenty of solid ways to fill those out.
Tournament
Last week, our Yahoo tournament lineup was built around a Goff and Amon-Ra stack — obviously, that worked out well, but I wish I had committed harder to the full onslaught. This week, I’m going to fully commit to one massive game stack. But fair warning, it’s going to be a weird one. That’s right, it’s time for a Brandon Allen mega-stack. I’ll pair him with two 49ers who are cheaper here than on the other two sites in CMC and Deebo. Then, let’s come the other way with the two value options from the Packers: Kraft and Doubs. We’re betting on this 49ers/Packers game going off here, which is a long shot without Purdy but could pay off huge if it happens. Given that we’re getting weird and hyper-committed to one game, let’s go chalk elsewhere: the Dolphins’ defense paired with Achane, plus Bucky Irving. That just leaves one WR spot to fill, and there are plenty of options I like to fill it.