Houston (-7) at Dallas
O/U: 41
The Texans are coming off a frustrating loss to Detroit last week despite intercepting Jared Goff five times. The second-half letdown was a tough pill to swallow, but Houston gets a significant boost this week with the return of Nico Collins. Collins’ presence should help open up the offense and give CJ Stroud a reliable target as he looks to bounce back.
On the Dallas side, Cooper Rush will get the start under center after a rough outing last week. The return of CeeDee Lamb should provide some stability, but if Rush struggles again, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys turn to Trey Lance as a mid-game alternative.
Projected Ownerships
Captain
- Joe Mixon – 25.4%
- Nico Collins – 14.5%
- CeeDee Lamb – 9.28%
- Rico Dowdle – 8%
- CJ Stroud – 7.3%
Flex
- CJ Stroud – 49.25%
- Joe Mixon – 45.5%
- Nico Collins – 40%
- Rico Dowdle – 32.75%
- Cooper Rush – 31.5%
- Jake Ferguson – 31%
- CeeDee Lamb – 31%
- Ka’imi Fairbairn – 27.4%
- Brandon Aubrey – 21%
Captain Strategy
Joe Mixon is my top Captain choice, but he’s also the most popular, as reflected in his high projected ownership. When I build my usual 20 lineups, I’m locking in Mixon as Captain in 100% of them while rotating my Flex players. If going all-in on Mixon makes you uncomfortable, consider splitting your Captain exposure between Mixon, Rico Dowdle, and Nico Collins.
Defense Pricing Observations
DraftKings has unusual pricing for defenses tonight. Houston’s defense is priced up at $6,200—higher than some backup quarterbacks—likely due to Cooper Rush’s struggles. However, I’m not willing to pay that premium and will have little to no exposure to the Texans’ defense.
On the other hand, Dallas’ defense feels underpriced at $3,600, especially with Micah Parsons returning. They’re a strong value option if you’re looking to save salary.
Value Play: John Metchie III
For those needing salary relief, John Metchie III is an intriguing option. Priced at only $4,000, he’s solidified himself as the Texans’ No. 3 receiver and could provide sneaky upside at minimal cost.
Final Thoughts
Joe Mixon is the chalk Captain, but his high ownership is justified given his potential upside. If you want to differentiate, consider creative Flex combinations and leverage underpriced options like Dallas’ defense or Metchie. Avoid overspending on Houston’s defense unless you’re making a bold contrarian play.