The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots
Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings – Josh Allen leads the field in double-digit ownership and is the only one above 9%, really. It’s an easy fade as Miami has been good against opposing QBs. It’s a pay-up week at a lot of positions as the pricing gets sharper and my original love of Malik Willis looks like it is out the window with Love expected to play. I still like Love as Detroit has given up points to QB and he will be VERY low-owned. I am focusing on a few pivots that mainly include both sides of the NYG/WSH game and I can’t seem to get away from Hurts/Barkley/Brown combination. I also feel a little flop lag on the Burrow play from last week. If you want to go against the grain, stack up Kamara (mega-owned) with Carr and run back with Coker…
Fanduel – Lamar jumps to the top of ownership but something makes me feel like this is a trap game for Baltimore… Joe Burrow and Josh Allen get a lot of love too and both can be faded in favor of Hurts, Daniels, Jones as the rushing upside pays off at FD more.
Running Backs
DraftKings – News of Zack Moss missing this week has catapulted CHase Brown to MASS ownership. We are talking 40%+ in small contests and well over 25% in large ones. I Honestly don’t love it, fairly easy fade for me but you can eat the chalk with the possible usage he will rack up. Kamara rings up close behind but all chalk against Carolina has paid off for the most part, so go ahead and book it, especially with his QB back. Bijan and Achane who both look good round out the top-owned back for the week and not so high they are total fades. Give me Barkley again at very low ownership compared to the top options because of the risk of Hurts stealing goal-line touches. I’ll also pivot to a nearly unowned Gibbs and underpriced Swift who has done nothing but put up 20-point games in his last 4 starts. Tyrone Tracy is maybe the best value on the board.
Fanduel – Gibbs price becomes an issue here and you lose the PPR upside but 3% owned does sound nice. I favor Monty this week anyway though. Achane is an absurd 1.5% projected owned and needs to be slotted in. Tracy and Swift are in play here too.
Wide Receivers
Draftkings – London, Tillman, Olave lead ownership and I get the argument for each. I’m pairing Hurts with AJ Brown all over as the ownership fade for a top-scoring pair is screaming my name. Detroit should have to work a bit harder this week so I expect St. Brown to do very well at depressed ownership and under $8k for the first time this year. Terry McLaurin at just over 1% owned is an insult and we already know I love Daniels this week. All the WR in the LAR/SEA that are gonna suit up are in play for me, I know it’s a divisional game but I really feel a shoot out coming out east. Brian Thomas Jr deserves a look if he’s 100% by game time and Wan’Dale Robinson is back in contention for me as a value pivot. Secondary WR in that DAL/ATL pop all over the model.
Fanduel – Looks similar as above but Lions and Giants WR pop even more.
Tight Ends
DraftKings – Gesicki is leading the way but not an obnoxious amount and I just have to roll with that potential at $3100 when Higgins is out. Jonnu Smith is a perfectly fine pivot slightly up from there but I just don’t like the opportunities for anyone else priced so low. Pay high end pricing again this week as TE’s have started crushing. Last week was a perfect double TE week but this week has caught up on pricing so I’m not moving that way myself. LaPorta is hard to ignore at cheaper than Pitts, and Andrews at $4200 is just ridiculous. Can’t go wrong with Bowers at 5% owned either if you can afford it.
Fanduel – Gesicki for value and much lower ownership than Draftkings, Bowers to smash if you’re paying up.
Defenses
I’m not seeing anything that stands out this week. play what you can afford. Go after teams that excel at sacks.