The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots
Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.
See the simulations and projection I use and more! https://paydirtdfs.com/?aff=Jonnydanger
Quarterbacks
DraftKings – 13 games this week makes for spread out ownership so not a ton of consolidation at the top. We have a ton of high priced plays in good spots so it makes sense that a cheap mobile QB in Bo Nix leads ownership this week at around 15%. Carolina sucks and playing down to $5600 is an easy way to build. I can find more ways for Bo to fail than succeed but I understand it. Pay 100 more and get Aaron Rodgers ready to prove he’s still relevant, pay up 200 more and get Richardson who has been a much better play with Taylor in the backfield historically, or pay up 400 and get Geno in my favorite low owned game of the week. I am big on Burrow, but watch the Higgins injury news and the Pivot up play of week will be the almost unowned Josh Allen. Shout out to liking Jordan Love as a naked QB play this week too.
Fanduel – Lamar sneaks ahead of Nix on FD and I can never blame anyone for playing him. Love jumps to the top of the salary pile so I like him much less on FD. Richardson and Geno even less owned.
Running Backs
DraftKings – We will have a theme with Miami, the skill players are all underpriced because pricing came in before Tua got announced returning. Breece Hall, Javonte Willimas , Achane, Dobbins, and Mixon are the heavy favorites. Hall will hit nearly 30% and Willams will push 25%. No one should ever tell you to fade a running back against Carolina, but I am more of the mind the Jets throw just because all game. I want to pay up to Barkley in a crush matchup again projected under 2% ownership and Kenneth Walker that can break a slate as good as the next guy at under 4% owned. Rachaad White should be heavily involved with Godwin, Evans, and looking like Bucky out as well and only around 5% owned. Kamara way under-owned around 1% too.
Fanduel – Mason enters the Fade Up conversation with a heavier lean towards Kamara
Wide Receivers
Draftkings – First thing you see is Hill and Waddle being way underpriced. I’m on record saying I don’t think Tua in game one back suddenly makes this team good, they have been absolutely putrid. Maybe I will be apologizing next week but with 13 games I think you can fade them and look elsewhere. Hill looking to approach 30%, Tee Higgins right behind him but picked up an injury designation at practice yesterday. Ladd McConkey, McMillan London and Waddle round out the other top owned plays. Ladd feels too expensive, McMillan I like but Sterling Sheppard in the same game for 100 more and 25% of the ownership. Cedric Tillman was last weeks darling and could repeat with similar looks, ignored as a one off hit, and still at $3300. The plays from Phi/Cin are criminally under played and I am way more on that then chalk Miami. I am of the mind Jayden Daniels plays, and Terry McLaurin at under 1% owned must be some kind of Joke with DJ Moore and Allen in the same game not getting the love they deserve.. Zay Flowers and Bateman are in play as well.
Fanduel – Looking similar as above but the pricing on Lockett and JSN are enticing if DK Metcalf misses.
Tight Ends
Bargain values of Otton and Dissly lead ownership projections, I like Otton at $3500 and Dissly has been good but also the other guys in the TE room with him have been injured and if they get more playing time Dissly value plummets. I like the chalk in Engram as GB struggle in the middle, Njoku should be a focal point and an excellent pivot off the chalk with high upside. Paying up feel good for McBride, too much attention on the return of Tua, I like playing McBride and maybe even with Conner to play the anti-narrative.
Defenses
Bears for value or pay on up to the top!