NFL DFS Building Blocks –Week 8

Welcome to Week 8’s DFS preview! We have an absolutely massive 13-game slate this Sunday, as there are no London games, no byes, and no Monday-night doubleheaders this week. This will be a long one, so let’s get started!

Game Overviews

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Projected Totals: Colts 20.5, Texans 25.5

This divisional matchup features two sophomore quarterbacks who have both been massive fantasy disappointments. With that said, Anthony Richardson’s only good game of the season did come in Week 1 against these same Texans. There’s upside on both sides here, but plenty of risk as well. 

Quarterbacks

As mentioned, both of these quarterbacks have produced far below preseason expectations, and their DFS prices have fallen as a result. If I’m going to chase a bounceback from one, however, it will be the one who has actually performed worse: Anthony Richardson. C.J. Stroud has a higher floor, but it’s clearly not that high coming off a five-point outing against the Packers. Meanwhile, Richardson has a much higher ceiling thanks to his dual-threat abilities and is priced much cheaper. He’s still just a tournament play, however. 

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor is reportedly on track to return this week for the Colts after missing a few weeks with an ankle injury. Unfortunately, he returns to a bad matchup and struggling offense. Likely workhorse volume means he’s never a terrible play, but I don’t love him on this slate. Joe Mixon also has the volume, and game script and matchup are both more in his favor than JT’s. He has at least 25 Half-PPR points in all three of his full games so far this season, although his prices have risen to reflect that. I prefer Mixon, but neither of these RBs are among my favorite pay-up options on this slate.  

Wide Receivers

Part of me wants to go straight back to Tank Dell, even after his donut killed many of my lineups in Week 7. He’s just cheap enough to chase a 24.5% target share over the last two weeks, but he may also be game-scripted out of this one as the Texans are clearly happy to run the ball when possible. Stefon Diggs has been more productive than Dell but has only seen slightly more targets (26.4%) and is far more expensive. If I’m playing a Houston WR, it will probably be Dell. I’m not going to be playing any Colts receivers at all — Richardson is averaging an abysmal 15 catchable pass attempts per game, murdering both the ceiling and floor projections for his weapons.

Tight Ends

With Nico Collins sidelined, Dalton Schultz has averaged a 17% target share. Especially once we consider that the Colts are the third-best schedule-adjusted matchup for TEs, he’s an interesting pay-down option. No Indianapolis TE is worth playing.

Defenses

They’re a bit expensive, but I like the Texans’ defense this week. Richardson is mistake-prone (although it should be noted that he is elite at avoiding sacks), and they project to be very low-rostered. Even at cheap prices and with Houston’s offense struggling, I’m not interested in the Colts’ defense. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Projected Totals: Ravens 26.5, Browns 16.5

The Ravens are looking like at worst the second-best team in the NFL, while the Browns are truly awful. Some fantasy players are excited about Jameis Winston starting for Cleveland, but a 16.5-point total implies that Vegas isn’t so sure, even if anything is an upgrade from Deshaun Watson. 

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson is a fantasy god. He’s worth playing at QB1 on Yahoo and DK, and definitely a good call at QB4 on FanDuel. There’s an argument for Jameis Winston as a punt QB play this week. He’s very cheap, the Ravens are the fourth-best adjusted matchup for quarterbacks, and we’ve seen him have fantasy success in the past. I do see a world where Winston scores 20 points, all in garbage time, which would be enough to pay off his price. He’s also projected to be hardly rostered, making him more interesting. 

Running Backs

Just like his quarterback, Derrick Henry is always worth considering if you can find the cash. This is especially true with the Ravens such heavy favorites. On the Browns’ side, Nick Chubb is back. He saw 69% of the Browns’ RB rushes last week but played just 35% of snaps. Traditionally not much of a receiver, he may struggle to contribute much in what should be a very negative game script. He’s only a dart throw if you think last week was him being eased in and this week he bounces back to his old self, both in usage and efficiency.

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers missed a few practices this week with an ankle issue but returned today. He has been inconsistent this year based on game script. Between the ankle and the Ravens being huge favorites, this doesn’t set up as a big week for him, so I’m out on Flowers at not-too-cheap prices. Rashod Bateman exploded last week and is very cheap. The issue is that he is even more game-script-dependent than Flowers. I like him as a tournament dart, potentially stacked with Lamar, but nothing else. On the Browns’ side, I’m very interested in Cedric Tillman, especially on DraftKings, where he is incredibly cheap. He stepped right in for Amari Cooper last week with 12 targets on a 31% first-read target share. If you don’t buy the “X receiver replacement” narrative, Jerry Jeudy is also cheap and could reassert himself as the Browns’ WR1. With Jameis chucking it around and the Ravens ranking as the second-best adjusted matchup for WRs, there’s a solid chance one of these two (or Elijah Moore) has a decent day. 

Tight Ends

David Njoku saw a 27% target share last week. For the season, he has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He’s a very solid option this week. On the other hand, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are still both hovering around just 50% route participation rates. This makes them both very hard to trust, although they have high potential ceilings for their prices.

Defenses

The Ravens’ defense should be able to take advantage of the Browns and the interception-prone Winston. They project to be heavily rostered on DK and Yahoo, less so on FD where they are the most expensive option. The Browns’ defense is not worth considering.  

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions

Projected Totals: Titans 16.5, Lions 27.5

The Lions are an absolute threshing machine, and the Titans are terrible. This one is likely to be ugly, but hopefully we can get some points along the way.

Quarterbacks

We are almost certainly getting Mason Rudolph for the Titans, as Will Levis has yet to practice while recovering from a shoulder injury. Rudolph is probably the better QB, but that does not make him a DFS option — I don’t care that he’s super cheap on DraftKings. This looks like another “won’t have to do much” week for Jared Goff, which is reflected by very low projected rostership. With that in mind, I don’t hate building a Lions stack with him up top for a tournament. With a 27.5-point total, all it would take is some lucky TD distribution and/or a couple big plays for him to have a productive outing.

Running Backs

Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are excellent options in this matchup. I prefer Montgomery, who has outscored Gibbs in four of six weeks and is cheaper, but Gibbs showed last week that he has week-changing upside even in a part-time role. For the Titans, Tony Pollard saw elite usage last week with Tyjae Spears out, but he failed to do much with it. I don’t hate going back to him this week, but there’s a real chance the Titans’ offense is so miserable he can’t get anything going.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley is the only game left in town for the Titans, and the Lions are the fourth-best matchup for receivers. Given his prices are low, I don’t hate playing Ridley this week, but we’ve seen that his floor is nonexistent. On the Lions’ side, Amon-Ra St. Brown is always an option, although he could disappoint if the Lions get up early and run the ball. With Jameson Williams suspended, Tim Patrick is also an interesting punt play at negligible prices on all three sites. 

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta also gets a boost from Williams’ suspension. His 8.4% target share for the season is a screaming red flag, but with low projected rostership he’s not a terrible tournament dart throw for a TD or two. Chigoziem Okonkwo isn’t worth playing.  

Defenses

The Lions’ defense, even without Aidan Hutchinson, is an option this week. They’re much cheaper (and will be more rostered) on FD than elsewhere. The Titans’ defense is not an option.

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Totals: Packers 26.5, Jaguars 21.5

I’m honestly surprised this game is projected as close as it is, as the Jaguars are multiple tiers below the Packers in my eyes. From a fantasy perspective, both of these offenses are crowded with multiple options, making it hard to know whom to trust.

Quarterbacks

It’s impossible to overstate how soft a matchup the Jaguars have been for opposing quarterbacks. That is the main reason I’m considering Jordan Love, who is priced up and due for some regression in the TD category (the Packers lead the league by far in terms of the share of their TDs that have come through the air). He could explode for a week-winning performance, but it’s always hard to get excited about the most expensive pocket-passing QB on a given slate. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is cheap enough to be a bit tempting, especially on DraftKings. He hasn’t produced much this season but should have plenty of volume this week keeping up with the Packers.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs is coming off his best game of the season and in a great matchup. Although he scored his first career receiving TD last week, he’s still due some positive TD regression to correspond with Love heading the other way. He’s a solid option. For the Jaguars, Travis Etienne is a game-time decision. If he’s in, I’m avoiding all Jaguars RBs … and I think I am if he’s out, too. Tank Bigsby has been arguably the league’s best rusher so far this season, but he’s not involved in the passing game at all. D’Ernest Johnson is the preferred receiving back and very cheap, but it’s hard to get excited about his ceiling as a tournament dart throw. 

Wide Receivers

The Packers’ receivers will score points in this juicy matchup, the question is which one it will be. I like Romeo Doubs, who still consistently leads the group in routes and has had back-to-back good games. Jayden Reed is also an option but he is expensive for someone with an 18% target share on the season. Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are sharing snaps, making them both boom-or-bust plays. For the Jaguars, Brian Thomas Jr. has clearly emerged as the team’s best receiver. He’s priced way up on Yahoo, but appealing on DK and FD. With his route share falling to 62% last week, I’m out on Christian Kirk.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram simply racks up targets when he is on the field. He’s a solid option against a Packers defense that has struggled to defend TEs. Tucker Kraft has performed well over the last few weeks, but it’s hard to see anything other than regression coming from his 13% target share and 3.9-yard ADOT. I’m not paying top-10 TE prices for that.

Defenses

The Jaguars’ defense is awful and an obvious fade. The Packers’ defense is also a bit expensive if we believe the Jags can live up to their projected total.

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins

Projected Totals: Cardinals 20.5, Dolphins 24.5

Hope is back for the Dolphins, as Tua Tagovailoa is set to make his return. Meanwhile, Twitter would have you think the Cardinals got destroyed by the Chargers instead of winning (albeit winning ugly). 

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray has been boom or bust, with three top-five finishes, three finishes outside the top 16 QBs, and one QB12 finish. He’s relied on a couple of huge rushing TDs for two of those three big games, but he’s one of the few QBs in the league who we can count on to occasionally break those. That makes him intriguing at medium-tier prices, but he is risky. Tua Tagovailoa is a bit expensive on DK but otherwise makes an okay pay-down option in his first game back. We know he has a huge ceiling if he hits on big plays to his playmakers. 

Running Backs

James Conner continues to be one of the league’s most underrated RBs. He is a candidate for being game-scripted away, but his volume when that doesn’t happen is excellent. He’s a decent option, although he is expensive on FD. De’Von Achane projects to be very heavily rostered, which makes sense as he was great in his two games with Tua and his price is way down. Achane’s price being so cheap makes Raheem Mostert less appealing. He can be played as a pivot off Achane at low rostership but will likely need a TD or two to pay off.

Wide Receivers

Just like Achane, Tyreek Hill projects as one of the most-rostered players on the slate with Tagovailoa back. Getting last year’s WR2 (especially one with Tyreek’s ceiling) at prices outside the top six is obviously nice, but I’m a little worried by how truly terrible Hill has been. There’s a chance Tua’s return fixes everything, but there may be bigger issues with Miami’s offense. All of the things I just said apply about Tyreek also apply to Jaylen Waddle, just at a lower price. Both can be played, but I wouldn’t go overboard on Miamis WRs. For Arizona, I am conflicted about what to do with Marvin Harrison Jr. His production has been undeniably disappointing, and his price is still high (outside of Yahoo). However, he still has a massive ceiling, projects to have low rostership, and could benefit from a “squeaky wheel” situation with all the noise surrounding the Cardinals’ usage of him. I like taking a shot or two with him in tournaments. 

Tight Ends

Trey McBride sees elite volume and is worth paying up for. Jonnu Smith is coming off a big game, but his involvement is too inconsistent to get excited about. 

Defenses

I’m not particularly interested in either the Dolphins’ defense or the Cardinals’ defense. 

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Projected Totals: Jets 23.5, Patriots 16.5

The Patriots are still bad, but Drake Maye has at least brought some life to their offense. The Jets, meanwhile, were still bad even with the addition of Davante Adams.

Quarterbacks

Drake Maye is cheap for a quarterback with rushing upside. His projected rostership is also tiny. I don’t hate throwing a dart or two at him in tournaments. He’s certainly more appealing than Aaron Rodgers, who is more expensive, has been less productive, and has higher projected rostership.

Running Backs

Breece Hall has returned to absolutely elite usage since Robert Saleh was fired. He is a great play at relatively cheap prices, even though he projects to be massively rostered. Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t priced too terribly, but I find it hard to get excited about him now that his usage is just okay. 

Wide Receivers

Is it crazy to say I’m not particularly interested in Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams? Neither has proven capable of elite production without massive volume (in recent times for Adams, for Wilson, ever), and neither will see that volume while they are sharing the field. Especially with the Jets heavily favored and running a slow run-heavy offense, I’m not sure there’s enough to like here to pay top-12 prices. Things are also tricky on the Patriots’ side. Demario Douglas is the obvious choice as a cheap, high-volume option, but his ceiling feels low. Kayshon Boutte is also at basement prices and could see extended run with Ja’Lynn Polk out, but he’s capable of dropping a complete zero. None of the WRs in this game are completely unplayable, but I certainly don’t love any of them, either.  

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin was already borderline unplayable, the arrival of Adams kills his DFS value. Hunter Henry, on the other hand, has benefited greatly from Maye’s arrival, with double-digit points in each of the last two weeks. He’s not a terrible pay-down option, especially on DK.  

Defenses

The Jets’ defense projects to be very popular despite high prices, and they are undeniably a good option. The Patriots’ defense should also see some rostership as a punt option — they come with risk but could pay off. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Totals: Falcons 23.5, Buccaneers 22.5

The Buccaneers will be without their top two receivers for this week, making it very hard to predict how their offense will look. Considering that, I’m honestly surprised that this game is still projected to be so close. 

Quarterbacks

Even at minuscule projected rostership, there’s no reason to play Baker Mayfield without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Kirk Cousins is a bit more appealing, as he has his weapons and the Buccaneers are the second best matchup for QBs. We’ve only seen one ceiling outcome from him so far this season, but it was a massive ceiling against these same Bucs. If that happens again, anyone building a full Atlanta stack around Kirk will be siting pretty.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, but he’s still a valid pay-up option in a good matchup. Tyler Allgeier doesn’t see quite consistent enough volume to be appealing. The Buccaneers are trying to use all three of Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker, which results in all three being questionable options. White, as the receiving back of the group, is the most appealing, as the Bucs should be playing from behind. But even he comes with a very low floor.

Wide Receivers

With Evans and Godwin out, someone is going to have to step up in the Buccaneers’ WR room. But will it be Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan, or Trey Palmer? All three are dirt cheap, so having the right one in your lineups could be huge. According to projected rostership, McMillan is the most popular pick, but the other two will have non-negligible rostership as well. I wish I had one perfect stat that makes it clear which of these three is the play, but I really don’t. McMillan is the exciting rookie, Shepard has the chemistry with Baker, and Palmer led the trio in routes last week (but was far behind in his previous healthy weeks). If you play multiple lineups, I recommend mixing and matching all three as value options. Things are thankfully much clearer on the Falcons’ side. Drake London has established himself as the clear WR1 and is a valid pay-up option. Darnell Mooney sees plenty of volume and is a solid mid-tier choice. And Ray-Ray McCloud runs a ton of routes for a WR3 and is a decent value play in his own right.

Tight Ends

If you want a safe way to take advantage of Tampa’s injuries, Cade Otton may be the answer. Otton has always run plenty of routes and should earn more targets with less competition. He’s especially cheap on DK but makes a good value play everywhere. Kyle Pitts has trended back in the right direction of late, posting a season-high 87% route participation rate last week. His volatile role makes him risky, but he could certainly pay off not-too-expensive prices.

Defenses

Even with all of the Buccaneers’ injuries, neither the Falcons’ defense nor the Buccaneers’ defense is particularly appealing. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Totals: Eagles 23.5, Bengals 24.5

This is an exciting game for sure, especially if the Bengals can get an early lead and make the Eagles open things up offensively.

Quarterbacks

With his star receivers back and the Tush Push humming on all cylinders, Jalen Hurts is a good pay-up option against a beatable Cincinnati defense. Joe Burrow doesn’t have the Tush Push, but he can match Hurts with two superstar receivers. He also gets the benefit of playing on a pass-happy team (the Bengals are second in pass rate over expected while Philly is fifth-lowest). Burrow is also an option, especially if you can pair him with one of his receivers.

Running Backs

He’s very expensive, but you can’t really go wrong putting Saquon Barkley in your lineup. Chase Brown has officially surpassed Zack Moss in all non-pass-blocking scenarios, making him the Bengals RB to play if you are going to play one. 

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase is the most expensive receiver on the slate, and A.J. Brown isn’t far behind. Both are absolutely worth paying up for if you can do it. Of the two No. 2 receivers, I prefer Tee Higgins to DeVonta Smith, although the Bengal is dealing with a quad injury so check injury reports before rostering him. Assuming he’s healthy, Higgins has actually out-targeted Chase since he returned to the field and benefits from the Bengals’ pass-heavy offense. Smith is not a terrible play, but his volume is more inconsistent as Philly feeds AJB and Saquon.

Tight Ends

With Dallas Goedert out again, I’m tempted to give Grant Calcaterra one more chance as a punt option this week. He has been at a 70%+ route participation rate in each of the last two weeks and the Bengals’ defense is weak to tight ends. No Cincinnati TE is worth playing.

Defenses

I’m not playing the Eagles’ defense or the Bengals’ defense.

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers

Projected Totals: Saints 16.5, Chargers 24.5

You know things are rough in New Orleans when they are eight-point underdogs to this very mediocre Chargers team. We can expect Jim Harbaugh to lean on the run game as a heavy favorite against Spencer Rattler.

Quarterbacks

He’s cheap, especially on DK, but I’m not playing Spencer Rattler. I’m also not playing Justin Herbert, who might attempt single-digit passes this week.

Running Backs

This is an excellent spot for J.K. Dobbins against a beatable Saints run defense. He set a new career high with 25 carries against the Broncos two weeks ago; we may see him break it this week. The Saints’ overall offensive struggles finally got to Alvin Kamara last week, as he was shut down by the Broncos’ defense. He’s seeing elite usage, especially in the passing game, but I’m tempted to fade the veteran at high prices and high rostership against another good defense. 

Wide Receivers

Ladd McConkey is the only Chargers receiver to consider at this point. The rookie has been impressive, but it’s hard to see him getting the volume to truly smash. Still, he’s cheap enough to be a value play, especially on DK. Chris Olave is back this week and is now the Saints’ undisputed WR1 with Rashid Shaheed done for the season. He is cheap for his talent, the question is whether Rattler can get him the ball. Bum Means is a true Hail Mary value option (except on FanDuel) as the team’s WR2. 

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill is always the ultimate wild card if you want to throw a dart in a tournament, but he comes with a very low floor (and is weirdly expensive on FD). Juwan Johnson hasn’t done enough even with extra opportunities to be an option, and the Chargers don’t have a TE worth playing.  

Defenses

The Chargers’ defense projects to be very popular, with good reason, despite a high price. The Saints’ defense projects to be unpopular, also with good reason. 

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected Totals: Bills 24.5, Seahawks 22.5

We may be seeing a new-look Bills offense. Not only did they trade for Amari Cooper, but they posted a pass rate 14.2% above expected in Week 7, a massive step up from their -1.7% average over the first six weeks. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been slinging it all season, leading the league with a pass rate 8.8% over expected.

Quarterbacks

If the pass-rate increase from last week is for real, Josh Allen is back on the menu as a top-tier fantasy QB, especially in this high-octane matchup. However, that’s just a one-game sample size, so believing in it too much could be risky — overall, Allen has not lived up to his name (and prices) this season. I’ve been chasing positive TD regression with Geno Smith, and that should still come, but he is much less appealing with D.K. Metcalf out this week. 

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker is a smash play every week at this point, with excellent usage in the run and pass games for an aggressive team. James Cook is capable of a big game against a beatable Seahawks defense, but increased pass volume and/or the emergence of Ray Davis makes him risky. 

Wide Receivers

With Metcalf out, both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett get a boost. Of the two, I prefer Lockett: He has more room to grow in route participation as a result of Metcalf’s absence and has been better on both a per-route and a per-target basis than JSN. For the Bills, Amari Cooper is an exciting option — we still don’t know how exactly his usage will shake out, but he was a useful fantasy play on just a fraction of snaps last week. With Cooper in town, I’m avoiding Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir until we see their roles in Buffalo’s “new” offense.

Tight Ends

The same applies to Dalton Kincaid, except on FanDuel, where he is all the way down at minimum price. I’m not particularly interested in Noah Fant, either.

Defenses

I’m not playing either the Bills’ defense or the Seahawks’ defense.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Projected Totals: Chiefs 25.5, Raiders 15.5

These two division rivals are moving in opposite directions. The Chiefs are 6-0 and adding firepower in the form of an aging superstar WR, while the Raiders are 2-5 and just shipped away their aging superstar WR.

Quarterbacks

I will pass on playing Gardner Minshew. Patrick Mahomes is more tempting, as I do think he’s still capable of throwing for four TDs in any given week … but any other player with his stats and price tag would be an obvious fade. 

Running Backs
It pains me to say this, but Kareem Hunt has some of the best usage in the NFL. In a good matchup and at non-exorbitant prices, he’s a very good play this week. I’m not touching Alexander Mattison against this Chiefs runs defense, even if his usage is great and his price is low.

Wide Receivers

This logic backfired on me last week with Cooper, but I’m not playing DeAndre Hopkins, as I don’t expect him to play a full set of snaps in his first game as a Chief (although he is cheap…). Xavier Worthy would be an intriguing boom-or-bust option at lower prices, but he is too expensive for my taste everywhere but Yahoo. This seems like the week we finally get Jakobi Meyers back, and he is a good pay-down option (except on Yahoo) given his 28% target share without Davante Adams.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers is finally priced as the top tight end on all three sites. With the Chiefs having been the easiest defense for opposing tight ends, he’s worth it. Travis Kelce isn’t far behind Bowers in price, and he is also a good pay-up option.

Defenses

The Chiefs’ defense is expensive but could pay off against Minshew and Co. The Raiders’ defense isn’t an option against the reigning Super Bowl champs.

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos

Projected Totals: Panthers 14.5, Broncos 26.5

Andy Dalton will miss this game due to his mid-week involvement in a car accident. That means Bryce Young gets to face the dominant Broncos defense … without his top receiver. It’s going to be ugly. 

Quarterbacks

I’m not sure if I would play Bryce Young if he were literally free. Bo Nix is very cheap (except on Yahoo) for a rushing QB in a great matchup, making him an interesting punt option. 

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard’s run in the sun likely ends this week, as the Broncos’ defense will sell out to stop him until Young makes them stop … which isn’t likely. He’s cheap compared to his recent production, but I’m still avoiding him. Playing running backs against the Panthers has been a good idea all season, and Javonte Williams is no exception.

Wide Receivers

With Diontae Johnson out, Xavier Legette is interesting as a volume-based punt option, but his floor is scary with Young under center. The Broncos may not need to pass at all to win this one, but Courtland Sutton is cheap enough to be an interesting mid-range play. Rookie Troy Franklin (a college teammate of Nix’s) saw a 23% target share last week and could be a viable tournament dart throw. 

Tight Ends

If Tommy Tremble remains out with a back injury, I don’t hate Ja’Tavion Sanders as a punt play with Diontae out. Again, his floor is miniscule, though. Denver doesn’t have a fantasy-relevant TE.

Defenses

The Broncos’ defense is in the smash spot of all smash spots, worth paying up for even as a top-two-priced unit on all sites. The Panthers’ defense is never in play.

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

Projected Totals: Bears 23.5, Commanders 20.5

Jayden Daniels is questionable, but I think we are getting a matchup between first and second-overall picks: Caleb Williams and Marcus Mariota. Mariota actually moved the Commanders’ offense well last week, but that was against the woeful Panthers. The Bears’ offense has also taken advantage of some soft matchups recently, so this could be a let-down spot for either team.

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota, who does have dual-threat upside, is just cheap enough to be interesting as a play to get weird in a tournament format. On the other side, I lean toward fading Caleb Williams. He has been excellent over his last three games, but that means his prices and rostership are up, and this Commanders defense is not as bad as its reputation. 

Running Backs

Brian Robinson would be too cheap if Daniels were playing, but he may be held back by a less effective offense with Mariota at the helm. He’s still an option, but a much riskier one than he would be otherwise. Speaking of too cheap, D’Andre Swift’s price (except on Yahoo) is a bargain compared to his last three games. Even as a card-carrying member of the D’Andre Swift Doubters Club, I have to acknowledge that he is a solid option this week.

Wide Receivers

He’s cheap on FanDuel, but I’m scared of Terry McLaurin this week. The Bears’ defense is a tough matchup, and Mariota under center is not ideal. I also don’t love any of Chicago’s three receivers. D.J. Moore is the top option but also fairly expensive. Keenan Allen scored two TDs last week but has otherwise failed to break 5.0 Half-PPR points so far this season. Rome Oduzne is the cheapest and therefore my favorite of the bunch, but he posted just a 65% route participation rate last week. 

Tight Ends

Speaking of 65% route participation rates, that is also what Cole Kmet saw. He is at just 55% for the season, not enough to put him in your lineups. Zach Ertz is more involved in his offense, but he’s a less appealing pay-down option without Daniels.

Defenses

Especially on DK, where they are cheap, I like backing the Bears’ defense to take advantage of Mariota. The Commanders’ defense is also an option, as we’ve seen Chicago struggle to beat good defenses in the best.

Lineups

DraftKings

Cash Game

As always, the key to cash games is volume. I’m going to start with two cheap players whom I feel fairly confident will see decent volume: Hunter Henry and Cedric Tillman. Then, David Montgomery and Brian Thomas Jr. are simply underpriced for how they have been performing so far this season. Kareem Hunt is also a great candidate to see tons of touches as the Chiefs handle the Raiders. I also like playing Tyler Lockett with D.K. Metcalf sidelined. The issue with Jordan Love is knowing who to stack him with, so let’s just play him alone in a cash format where we don’t need that correlation. That leaves enough money for a pay-up flex play and defense to round things out. 

Tournament

There’s enough value on this slate that I’m willing to make a hugely expensive stack to start things off: Hurts and AJB, with Higgins as a bring-back. That value comes in the form of Tillman (again) and your favorite of the Tampa receivers. Let’s also back a couple of running backs in dream matchups in Hunt and Javonte Williams. That leaves enough cash for solid options at the TE and DST positions. 

FanDuel

Cash Game

I’m a long-standing Dalton Kincaid hater, but even I won’t pass up on him at the minimum price. Let’s also take advantage of four more options that are cheaper here than elsewhere in Lamar Jackson, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, and the Lions’ defense. I also like Jakobi Meyers as a mid-range WR option, giving us enough cash to pay up for Amon-Ra St. Brown. That leaves us with $12,800, a WR spot, and a flex spot. There are plenty of good ways to finish things off. 

Tournament

This lineup starts with a bit of a narrative: James Conner runs all over the Dolphins, giving Arizona a big lead … causing Tua Tagovailoa to catch up with some deep shots to Tyreek Hill. Except for Tua, that’s an expensive start, so we’re going to need a bit of value — let’s try Tim Patrick as a pivot off the popular Tampa Bay/Tillman punt play WRs. Kenneth Walker again takes another big bite out of our salary, which we can make up for by taking advantage of the Kincaid free square (I really don’t understand why he is at the minimum price). Let’s also look for a big play or two from BTJ in Jacksonville. That leaves enough money for a truly elite player and a pay-up defense.

Yahoo

Cash Game

Yahoo cash games are always interesting, as their pricing is very different from the other two sites. Let’s start by slamming in a few of those value plays: the Ravens’ defense, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I also like sticking in a pair of $25 RBs in Achane and Javonte. All three of the Buccaneer receivers are at the minimum price, so pick your poison here. If we go for Njoku at tight end, we have enough cash that it’s almost impossible to spend it all at QB and flex.  

Tournament

Andy Dalton’s car accident has saved me from rolling out another Carolina stack, so instead, let’s go back to a different well that has done nothing but fail us: playing Anthony Richardson. This time, I’m going to play him without any pass-catchers, hoping for some rushing touchdowns. If Richardson is performing, the Texans will have to pass, so let’s bring Diggs the other way. Let’s switch from the Ravens to the Jets in the defense slot, correlating with Breece having a big game. I’m also going to take advantage of Bowers being under 5% projected rostership by slamming him in. We can stay in that game with Hunt one last time. Of course, we’re going to need value somewhere, which is where Tillman comes in. From there, there are plenty of ways to use your final $43 to fill your WR and flex spots. Punting on a Tampa receiver and paying up is an option, as is two mid-range picks.