The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots
Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.
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Quarterbacks
DraftKings – I see only 3 QBs I like this week with a real good chance to get over 30 points and two of them, Lamar and Hurts, are projected to go well over 20% owned. That leaves Jayden Daniels as a pay-up pivot at only 5% owned in the blow up game of the week according to vegas. I want pieces of this game if not stacks on both sides. Prescott and Love come in after the top two in ownership and while I like them both it’s harder to pinpoint the stack values with Green Bay and Lamb just has not been paying off the price tag this year. With all the focus on BAL/WSH, DET/DAL and Hurts getting his main 2 weapons back, I’m going to pivot over to C.J. Stroud looking like an afterthought on the slate and with Nico Collins out a little more compact target tree. I’m not interested at all in Baker, Rattler, or WIll Levis who for some reason has a positive leverage score… If Richardson is a full go a get right game against TEN defense seems like a nice spot to pivot on the field.
Fanduel – much the same as above but I really like the price that Daniel Jones is at.
Running Backs
DraftKings – Massive ownership trends on four guys coming into Sunday in Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Tony Pollard, and Chuba Hubbard. I am in for the very last time on Bijan chalk because the Panthers just can’t stop the run and he is priced in the mid $6000’s. I have interest in Bucky if you are pivoting off a bunch of other popular plays because he should see volume and Mike Evans just can’t play against New Orleans! Atlanta’s defense has been sound so I am out on Hubbard in general and even more so with projected ownership being nearly 20% and I think Pollard is decent chalk but I am way more interested in David Montgomery at $6500. In fact I like both Detroit running backs more than the chalk and think you can take either on in a big scoring game. We are overlooking Houston again and getting Mixon in a few spots seems like a good play.
Fanduel – I do like pivoting up to either Henry or Barkley above as well but even more so at Fanduel with what feels like a gross amount of ownership going to Bucky and Antonio Gibson who I have zero interest in playing even without Stephenson. Still heavily favoring either Detroit RB on Fanduel.
Wide Receivers
Draftkings – I have never seen these simulations favor a single games WR’s as much for ownership as I am seeing right now. The top four most popular projected plays are London, Mooney, Diontae Johnson, Ray-Ray McCloud… maybe a glitch in my matrix but that is even more reason to jump off that whole group and look elsewhere for me. Lamb and St. Brown lead scoring models but also very expensive and fairly high owned. Lamb has not gotten us there in 4 of 5 games and I want so much of the Lions running game I might just miss out on a big St. Brown day and that is a choice I have made. A.J. Brown makes a good pivot at the top with a high expected range of fantasy points and a QB that can focus in on one guy in a game. The more I write today the more I find myself liking all parts of the Houston offense so let me have those Tank Dell and Diggs shares. Salary relief is coming from Bateman, McConkey, Tolbert and maybe another shot at Wicks.
Fanduel – I just really like the late game with Bengals and Giants again. Most the plays above still stand.
Tight Ends
I find myself with 3 clear plays and 2 clear avoids. The market wants Ferguson and Otton in your lineups and I don’t hate either play but you will be breathing in a cloud of chalk. I like to keep TE simple, pay up from Bowers, go value in Patty Fry or keep taking those under $4k shots at Ertz.
Defenses
Paying up for Steelers or saving money on Buccs is where I am at this week, though my favorite play of anyone against Levis is back in the mix.