The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots
Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownership say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.
This is a much longer take this week due to the amount of various highly valid builds I am seeing.
Quarterbacks
Only three players this week are in at over 10% owned going into Sunday. Murray, Burrow, and Daniels. After last week’s fireworks on Monday I am a believer in the fantasy goodness of Jayden Daniels and of the three is the one I am more inclined to eat chalk on. I have him as the #1 scoring Quarterback on the slate. I also think C.J. Stroud will come in pretty close in ownership and the stack with Collings and Diggs could outscore any of the stacks with the guys more owned than he will be but also becomes the most expensive start to your lineup for the week. Jayden Daniels with Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz is so cheap that you can make some really attractive lineups and pivoting off of ownership completely to Sam Darnold who gets Jordan Addison back and can’t seem to get any respect at a projected 1% ownership. I am back on Baker Mayfield who is currently set as the absolute lowest owned starter of the week. Philly can’t stop teams from scoring and I am looking for a bounce back from Baker. I know we are getting long here but the mix and flexibility of this slate is really nice. I also like the Colts to win today despite their defensive injuries and Anthony Richardson played solo without a stack is very viable. I might have to build 5-10 lineups instead of my normal 3 today.
Running Backs
I don’t stress running back ownership too much unless it’s over 20%. The only ones currently above that threshold are Jordan Mason and Najee Harris. Mason is averaging 20+ touches and 100+ yards a game so far. I can’t judge anyone for buying into a Shanahan back and he seems safe, but he’s probably going more like 30% in smaller fields. Najee Harris is the guy I keep hearing about and projected ownership says that so does everyone else. Though not as high owned as Mason I am way more ready to fade him, mostly because people forget that he’s, you know… Najee Harris. Never put your eggs in the basket of this Steelers running game, and definitely not when it’s chalk, I’m out. I’m fading up to Saquan Barkley and Kamara. Barkley is worth every penny so far and starting with the Commanders stack or having Darnold in at QB lets me pay up. Value pivots are a bit tougher this week as I like the Aaron Jones play but ownership is sneaking up and the only one screaming out to me is Jerome Ford in a great matchup and opportunity at sub 6k and practically unplayed by the field.
Wide Receivers
If you want more reason to fade the Kyler Murray chalk all three of his wide outs are top 10 chalk plays of the week, that is an auto-fade for me. Going back to my Darnold pivot above, both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison come in at around 1% owned in absolutely terrific cornerback matchups. Mike Evans is being ignored and Chris Godwin is destroying mid talent slot corners and gets another one Sunday. I am calling flop lag on Rashid Shaheed, he gave us a donut last week and people have completely bailed on him. Diontae Johnson will be a top 3 owned play but I don’t know how you get off that unless you are worried about the groin and wet conditions they have been talking about the last couple days. His price is going to have him pop in in many builds and while I am fading the amount I was going to play I’m not completely off him. Give me Terry McLaurin, Brian Thomas Jr, and a touch of Deebo Samuel as high potential low owned pivots. Gut play of Keenan Allen coming up big in the slot against a defense that just let Jauan Jennings look like an All-Pro.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert was the play last week and we talked about it being the last week he was going to be under 5k. With no Brown or Smith I can not fault anyone for going this path and setting and forgetting it. Elijah Higgins is predictably the next chalk play with McBride out and like the wide receivers for Arizona I think I just have to fade it. Fading up to Bowers makes a lot of sense and though still popular is an ownership pivot off Higgins and Goedert. If you want to believe Kelce is still a slate breaker you might get him around 2-3% owned which is historically crazy low. Like above I am fading Arizona plays in favor of the Commanders side so Zach Ertz at $4000 and a quarter of the ownership of the bigger plays above and a shout out to George Kittle as the pay up Pivot from Bowers, with Hunter Henry at next to no one playing him.
Defense
No Levis to attack this week, sadly. Let’s look for sacks this week and target the Bears or punt down to the Falcons.