NFL DFS Building Blocks – Week 4
I would like to start this week’s article off by apologizing for not highlighting Jauan Jennings last week. Obviously, he was the play of the day, capable of making most other decisions irrelevant. However (spoiler alert), I’m not going to be recommending you chase the points and play him this week. This is the last week where we will have this many options for a while, as byes start next week. Let’s get started!
Game Overviews
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected Totals: Saints 20.5, Falcons 21.5
The prevailing sentiment is clearly that last week’s dud against the Eagles was closer to the Saints’ true level than their dominance of the first two weeks. Meanwhile, the Falcons seem to have settled somewhere in between the massive leap forward everyone was predicting before the season and the doom-and-gloom projections after their Week 1 struggles. This certainly isn’t the most exciting matchup on the slate, but it does have some decent options.
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins are honestly kind of similar as uninspiring veteran pocket passers. You can talk yourself a bit more into Carr based on his stellar first two weeks, and I do still believe that this Saints offense will be closer to great than mediocre, but he is also slightly more expensive than his Atlanta counterpart. Both can be played in stacks in a tournament but otherwise aren’t too appealing.
Running Backs
Both Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson are elite options, and they are priced accordingly. Kamara has popped up on the injury report this week with hip and rib injuries, so keep an eye on whether he has an injury designation for Sunday. Assuming both are active, can play either of these backs in any format.
Wide Receivers
With the Saints offense screeching to a halt last Sunday, the hype has clearly died down around Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. However, I think both can still be played. Shaheed is more of a tournament option with big-play upside and a low floor, while Olave is a decent play most weeks. On the Falcons’ side, Ray-Ray McCloud and Darnell Mooney (especially Mooney) have been solid and are fairly cheap. Drake London is, in my eyes, still priced too high for the level of production he has provided once you consider he has gotten a bit lucky to score TDs in back-to-back games so far this season.
Update: Olave popped up on Friday’s injury report with a hamstring issue. If he is ruled out, upgrade Shaheed.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts’ price is just low enough to make him slightly tempting, but he, like London, simply hasn’t taken the step forward that many were projecting. No tight end on the Saints’ side is worth considering.
Defenses
It’s hard to get too excited about either of these defenses. Neither is too expensive, but both of these offenses have been solid, aside from one bad week each. Defense scoring is fairly unpredictable, so you can consider the Falcons’ defense or the Saints’ defense if they line up with your salary, but they’re by no means priority plays.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Totals: Bengals 26.5, Panthers 20.5
Both of these offenses came back to life last week. The Panthers exploded with Andy Dalton at the helm, and the Bengals got a shot in the arm in the form of a matchup with the Commanders’ secondary and the return of Tee Higgins. Now, the question is whether they can both keep rolling.
Quarterbacks
Aside from on Yahoo, where he’s very cheap, I’m fading Joe Burrow. I’d like to see him put up a big performance against anyone other than Washington before paying top-five prices for him. Andy Dalton, on the other hand, is cheap across the board. There’s a chance last week was a classic instance of a one-week backup QB boost, but we have to consider that Dalton has been legitimately good every time we’ve seen him recently. He’s a very tempting option against a Bengals defense that just failed to record a single stop against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders.
Running Backs
If you’re not a believer in the post-Dalton Panthers, this is a smash spot for Zack Moss. Moss has dominated usage in the Bengals’ backfield, including 13 of 15 goal-line snaps, giving him great TD equity if Cincinnati runs away with this one. If you are a believer in the post-Dalton Panthers, Chuba Hubbard is an obvious play, especially on DK, where he has a lower salary and gets a boost from the PPR scoring.
Wide Receivers
Coming off a massive first game with Dalton under center, Diontae Johnson projects to be heavily rostered, especially on DK. As a Johnson truther myself, this is chalk I’m happy to eat — just be careful to check on his health, as he did miss practice on Thursday and is questionable with a groin issue. If you’re looking for a tournament dart throw or someone to stack with Dalton, first-round rookie Xavier Legette is also intriguing. He has big-play YAC ability and took over as Carolina’s WR2 once Adam Thielen (now on IR) went out last week. On the Bengals’ side, we are back to normal. Both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are viable plays who will be solidly rostered (Chase is very cheap on Yahoo, while Higgins is priced down on DK). Andrei Iosivas has been running hot on touchdowns and is inexpensive, but he’s hard to recommend now that Tee is back.
Tight Ends
Either Mike Gesicki or Erick All could be intriguing options on their own, but right now, neither is playing a full enough role to consider (both are below 50% route participation on the year). The same applies to Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble on the other side.
Defenses
I’m just scared enough of both of these offenses to not be interested in the Panthers’ defense or the Bengals’ defense.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
Projected Totals: Rams 18.5, Bears 20.5
The Rams’ decimated offense still put up 27 points on the 49ers last week, but this implied total shows that Vegas, at least, is not sold. The Bears, meanwhile, rank second-worst in offensive EPA per play but have shown flashes of efficiency. Against a struggling Rams defense, it may be the time for them to put it all together.
Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams has shown very little thus far to justify trusting him as a DFS play. He had the best game of his young career last Sunday, but it took him 52 pass attempts to put up just 17.32 fantasy points. The tempting matchup makes him a tournament option, but that’s it. Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, is essentially not viable without his top two weapons.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams has scored five of the Rams’ six touchdowns so far this season. That’s unsustainable but also an indicator of truly elite usage. He can be played in all formats, although he’s not without risk if the TDs dry up. It’s tempting to play Roschon Johnson, who will reportedly get a shot at the lead job in the Bears’ backfield this week. But the right move is probably to just avoid all Chicago RBs, especially D’Andre Swift, given his price, until the situation clears up.
Wide Receivers
If you’re looking for a Rams receiver, my pick is still Demarcus Robinson. He hasn’t produced much but is the clear leader in the room in terms of routes and first-read targets. On the Bears’ side, the potential return of Keenan Allen makes things crowded. Rome Odunze had a breakout game last Sunday, but both he and D.J. Moore‘s stats were inflated by the Bears’ absurd volume. This matchup is good enough to make DJM and Odunze options if Allen is out. Otherwise, I’m avoiding the Bears’ trio.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet had a massive game last week, but that was again inflated by those 52 pass attempts. His route participation rate was still below 60%; even at an okay price, I’m not chasing his Week 3 points. Colby Parkinson, on the other hand, has had great route participation numbers but very little to show for it. He’s more appealing, given his lower salary, but still not a great play.
Defenses
The Rams’ defense is very intriguing given their cheap price and the Bears’ struggles … but they’ve been one of the worst defenses in the league so far this season, so proceed with caution. The Bears’ defense can be played, but the Rams have been solid enough even with all their injuries to be scary.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Projected Totals: Vikings 20.5, Packers 23.5
Jordan Love returns just in time to take on the red-hot Vikings. Minnesota has been cooking on both sides of the ball, including holding C.J. Stroud and Co. to just seven points last week. Meanwhile, Matt LaFleur has proven he can scheme up offensive production even with Malik Willis. This should be a fun one.
Quarterbacks
At what point do we have to consider Sam Darnold as a weekly QB1 option? He’s the QB5 through three games, averaging nearly 20 fantasy points. Now he gets his WR2 back. It’s risky, but Darnold is priced far too low if we trust his performances so far. On the other side, Jordan Love also has a tempting salary, but I would avoid him in his first week back from injury.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs have both seen solid workloads and made the most of them so far this season. You can roster either in this divisional matchup.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson is the most expensive receiver on all three sites, but it’s never a bad idea to have him in your lineup if you can find the cash. I’m avoiding Jordan Addison in his first game back, but his return relegates Jalen Nailor to fantasy irrelevance. On the Packers’ side, Jayden Reed is cheap for how productive he has been, but he’s still risky thanks to his lower route participation versus comparable WRs. Speaking of route participation, Dontayvion Wicks has cut enough into Christian Watson’s usage to make both nothing more than dart throws. Romeo Doubs, as the only Packers WR who is consistently on the field, is an interesting play with Love back.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson might be back soon, which could be huge for the TE landscape … but he’s not yet, so no Vikings TE is in play. On the Packers’ side, Tucker Kraft is cheap for his potential, but his floor is low with the number of weapons in Green Bay’s offense.
Defenses
The Vikings’ defense has been on fire, but I’m still avoiding both them and the Packers’ defense as both teams’ offenses have been productive.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Projected Totals: Jaguars 19.5, Texans 25.5
The Jaguars are 0-3 and floundering, while the Texans will be looking to bounce back after taking a beating from the Vikings in Week 3. Houston also has a few lingering injury questions that make this game tougher to project, but we’ll do our best.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud is priced way up on DK, but he’s a good option on both FD and Yahoo. Trevor Lawrence is struggling enough that he’s very unappealing for DFS.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne’s workload is not what it once was. In a game where the Jaguars are underdogs by a solid margin, I’m avoiding him. On the Texans’ side, things are a mess. Cam Akers was expected to get another start early in the week, then it was reported that Dameon Pierce would return. However, it was actually Joe Mixon, not Pierce, who returned to the field first, practicing on Friday. If both are out, Akers is a good value play. If either Mixon or Pierce is active, I’m avoiding this backfield.
Wide Receivers
Along with their injuries at RB, the Texans are likely to be missing Tank Dell this week. That is good news for Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, who are both very much in play in all formats. On the Jaguars’ side, Gabe Davis is cheap (expect on FD) given he leads Jacksonville in routes, but he hasn’t produced much of anything. Christian Kirk also hasn’t done much, although he did see 10 targets last week. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. sees the field the least of the trio but has been the most productive … honestly, I’m not playing any of them.
Tight Ends
Brenton Strange has seen at least five targets each of the last two weeks with Evan Engram out, and he is cheap. He’s a dart-throw play. Dalton Schultz moves up the pecking order with Dell out, making him a bit more viable as a mid-tier option.
Defenses
The Texans should bounce back this week, so the Jaguars’ defense is off the table. However, the Texans’ defense may be able to take advantage of Jacksonville’s struggles.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected Totals: Steelers 20.5, Colts 19.5
These two teams’ offenses rank back-to-back in EPA per play, but how they get there could not be more different. The Anthony Richardson experience has been a wild ride for the Colts, as his superhuman Week 1 has regressed to massive accuracy issues and inexplicable turnovers. On the other side, Justin Fields has the Steelers’ offense tied for the fewest turnovers in the league … but also in the bottom 10 in points scored.
Quarterbacks
Somehow, both of these incredible dual-threat quarterbacks have been thoroughly mediocre in terms of fantasy production three weeks into the season. Like their teams, they have gotten there in different ways: Anthony Richardson has had one massive week and two terrible ones, while Justin Fields has been consistently mediocre. Of the two, I prefer Fields as a play. Richardson is unlikely to have a ceiling week against this Pittsburgh defense, which has been the best in the league against QBs so far. Fields is decently priced and has been seeing rushing volume — he just needs to hit on one of the big plays we saw from him in Chicago to be a smash play.
Running Backs
With Jaylen Warren out, Najee Harris should see all the touches he can handle, making him a good option. Jonathan Taylor is also a volume-based option, although his higher price against a tough defense is a bit risky.
Wide Receivers
George Pickens is the only receiving to consider for Pittsburgh, and this is a very solid spot for him. On the Colts’ side, it’s impossible to trust anyone with Richardson’s accuracy issues. Sixteen catchable targets per game is not enough to support Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, or Alec Pierce, while rookie Adonai Mitchell hardly saw the field last week with Downs back.
Tight Ends
It’s insane that this is true, but Pat Freiermuth’s value is helped by the fact that MyCole Pruitt is out this week (thanks, Arthur Smith). Even with Pruitt out, his usage hasn’t been consistent enough to make him more than a mediocre value option. No Colts TE is on the DFS radar.
Defenses
I love the Steelers’ defense this week. They are priced up, but they may be the best unit in the league against one of the most mistake-prone offenses. On the other hand, the Colts’ defense is not appealing with how mistake-free the Steelers’ offense has been playing.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Projected Totals: Broncos 15.5, Jets 23.5
Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self last Thursday, dicing up the Patriots en route to an easy win. Bo Nix, meanwhile, looks like an overmatched rookie quarterback surrounded by lackluster talent. This matchup has one of the more lopsided spreads on the slate for good reason.
Quarterbacks
As great as Aaron Rodgers looked last week, it’s still hard to get excited about him for DFS purposes. He’s not super cheap, has limited rushing upside, and shouldn’t have to do much in this matchup. Bo Nix, on the other hand, is unappealing simply because he’s bad.
Running Backs
I love Breece Hall this week. He hasn’t had a truly massive game yet this season despite seeing elite volume on a much-improved offense. With the Jets’ big favorites, this could be the week. However, everyone else sees this as well: Hall is projected to be the most rostered player on both DK and FD, so proceed with caution. On the Broncos’ side, it’s impossible to confidently roster Javonte Williams or Jaleel McLaughlin with how fractured and inefficient the Broncos’ rushing game has been.
Wide Receivers
I’m a proud Garrett Wilson doubter, so take this with a grain of salt: He’s priced awfully high for a guy with 150 yards through three games who has to face Patrick Surtain. Neither Allen Lazard nor Mike Williams jumps out either. On the Broncos’ side, Cortland Sutton is capable of volume-ing his way to good weeks, but it’s hard to trust him facing Sauce Gardner and Co.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin could be the beneficiary of extra targets given the Broncos’ strength at corner, but he’s not exactly a high-floor or high-upside play. Greg Dulcich is also not a good option.
Defenses
The Jets’ defense is expensive but could pay off the salary in this excellent matchup. The Broncos’ defense doesn’t have much going for it.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Totals: Eagles 21.5, Buccaneers 20.5
This game has some lingering injury questions. A.J. Brown’s surprise return to practice means he may be active, while rookie Bucky Irving’s quest to steal Rachaad White’s job my be delayed by an ankle injury. Overall, I’m slightly surprised these totals aren’t higher, as we have two good offenses facing two mediocre defenses.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield is expensive enough that the main way to play him is in a full stack for a tournament game. That is an option, though, as this Eagles secondary can be beaten. Jalen Hurts, meanwhile, is the most expensive quarterback on the slate (except on FD, where he’s second). He can certainly be played, especially if AJB suits up.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley is the most expensive back on all three sites but can be played regardless if you can find the funds. If Bucky Irving is out, Rachaad White is a sneaky play, as he will return to his massive workload from previous years. If the rookie is in, avoid Tampa’s backfield.
Wide Receivers
It’s hard to trust anyone making a late-week return from a hamstring injury, but A.J. Brown has to be considered if he’s active with DeVonta Smith sidelined. If Brown is out, Jahan Dotson should pace the team in routes and is the value play to consider, but he has seen big roles before and provided nothing. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both options as well, although Godwin projects to be heavily rostered and may be due for some regression.
Tight Ends
Cardio King Cade Otton is not in play. Dallas Goedert, however, is, especially if AJB is out. I wouldn’t pay his TE1 price on FanDuel, but his performance last week shows he could pay it off.
Defenses
Both the Eagles’ defense and the Buccaneers’ defense are untrustworthy in this matchup.
Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected Totals: Commanders 23.5, Cardinals 26.5
This is the fantasy game of the week, as two unstoppable forces meet two very moveable objects. Vegas expects fireworks with a nearly 50-point total, and I see no reason to doubt that prediction.
Quarterbacks
After his coming-out party on Monday Night Football, Jayden Daniels projects to be massively rostered (except on Yahoo) in a juicy matchup with the Cardinals’ defense. Kyler Murray is priced up for an even juicier matchup with the Commanders’ defense. Both of these dual-threat quarterbacks are viable in all formats.
Running Backs
James Conner is set for a bounceback game after struggling against the Lions last week. Brian Robinson is also a good option, especially with Austin Ekeler out with a concussion. Both RBs should see solid volume, making them excellent ways to get a piece of this high-flying matchup.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Harrison Jr. will be heavily rostered against this Commanders defense, for good reason. With Trey McBride sidelined, both Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are also intriguing, albeit risky, value plays. On the Commanders’ side, things have turned around fast for Terry McLaurin, who exploded on Monday night with two huge deep catches. If it weren’t for the positive matchup, I’d be tempted to fade McLaurin, whose overall production in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has been mediocre. But he’s a decent play given the fact that this game is projected to be a barn burner.
Tight Ends
With McBride out, former wide receiver Elijah Higgins is tempting as a pure dart throw value play. Be warned, though: His floor is a total zero. Meanwhile, former Cardinals Zach Ertz has been turning back the clock with a decent role in the Commanders’ offense; he’s a high-floor/low-ceiling value option.
Defenses
Both the Cardinals’ defense and the Commanders’ defense should be avoided.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Projected Totals: Patriots 14.5, 49ers 25.5
The 49ers have struggled to start the season, but this is a get-right spot. They will have at least George Kittle and potentially Deebo Samuel back. The Patriots, meanwhile, were absolutely embarrassed in Week 3 against the Jets. Still, this spread seems a little harsh for a team that beat the Bengals in Wee k1 and took the Seahawks to OT in Week 2. Regardless, the team to target in this one is clear.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy cooked last week without three of his top weapons, and he gets at least one back this week. He’s a solid mid-tier QB play. Jacoby Brissett is not worth playing.
Running Backs
Jordan Mason is priced way up on FanDuel, but he’s still a viable play on all sites. He’s not quite Christian McCaffrey, but he’s seeing elite volume in an elite offense that is favored by over 10 points. What’s not to like? Rhamondre Stevenson’s dud last week makes it harder to trust him, but he could still see enough touches to be a solid play.
Wide Receivers
I’ll start with the easy side: There’s not a single Patriots receiver worth playing, unless you really believe in Demario Douglas’ ability to rack up those PPR points. For the 49ers, things are complicated. Jauan Jennings broke fantasy last week, but I’m massively skeptical of his ability to do it again. Brandon Aiyuk, who set the NFL record in yards per target last year, is making the least out of his volume so far in 2024. He is clearly still rusty from missing training camp. And Deebo Samuel, who was expected to miss this week, practiced on Friday, meaning he may return. If Deebo is in, I recommend avoiding all three. If Deebo is out, Aiyuk is the play.
Tight Ends
George Kittle is back and immediately becomes a top play with the state of the TE position — he should arguably be priced above everyone not named Trey McBride at this point. Hunter Henry’s utilization is great, but it’s hard to trust him against Fred Warner and the 49ers’ defense.
Defenses
The 49ers’ defense is the most expensive option on FD and DK, and I wouldn’t pay that price — after all, they just allowed 27 points to the Ram-bulance. On Yahoo, where they are much cheaper, they’re an obvious play. The Patriots’ defense is unplayable regardless of site.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Totals: Chiefs 23.5, Chargers 15.5
The Chiefs haven’t had the offensive return to glory days we were hoping for coming into the season; they seem content with doing just enough to win every game. The Chargers, meanwhile, started hot against two weak opponents, then faltered massively in Week 3 against the Steelers. They may also be without Justin Herbert, who is dealing with an ankle injury.
Quarterbacks
Betting against Patrick Mahomes has never ever gone well for me, so I’m not going to say that he’s overpriced for the level of fantasy production he is actually providing. On the Chargers’ side, hobbled Justin Herbert or healthy Taylor Heinicke are both not worth playing.
Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins saw a huge leap in usage in Week 3, although it wasn’t reflected in his production. In another tough matchup this week, he’ll likely need a TD to return value. On the Chiefs’ side, Carson Steele was the clear lead back in their first game with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. Even with Samaje Perine involved and Kareem Hunt now on the active roster, I like rostering Steele at a decent salary in a game where the Chiefs are projected to win comfortably.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice is the engine that runs this Chiefs offense and worth playing every week. The rest of the Chiefs’ WRs are best avoided outside of dart throws for large tournaments. Quentin Johnston continues to find ways to put up points for the Chargers and is inexpensive on DK, but it’s hard to trust him with Herbert injured. The same applies to Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer.
Tight Ends
I’m sure Travis Kelce is capable of a vintage game, but I’m not paying up for the chance to find out. Hayden Hurst is running a ton of routes and the Chiefs have been very vulnerable to opposing TEs, but you’d have to be feeling really lucky to put him in a lineup.
Defenses
The Chiefs’ defense is in play, especially if Herbert is out. The Chargers’ defense is not, even if Mahomes clearly plans to throw one weird interception every game just to keep things interesting.
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Totals: Browns 17.5, Raiders 18.5
A game that already projected to be ugly has gotten even uglier, as the Raiders will be without Davante Adams, Maxx Crosby, and Michael Mayer. All we really need to know about this one is that both teams are having serious debates about benching their starting quarterbacks three weeks into the season.
Quarterbacks
There’s a world in which Deshaun Watson follows in Andy Dalton’s footsteps and has a big game against the Raiders’ defense, but it’s unlikely. Without his top weapon, Gardner Minshew is even less viable than normal.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford is a bit of an option given the cushy matchup, but it’s hard to forget that he was out-carried by D’Onta Foreman for seemingly no reason in Week 2. For the Raiders, Alexander Mattison and Zamir White combine to form a completely unappealing backfield.
Wide Receivers
With Adams out, both Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker have a bit of appeal at value prices, but they both also come with plenty of risk. Amari Cooper is the only Browns receiver to consider, and he is a solid, if unspectacular, option.
Tight Ends
Mayer being out is huge news for Brock Bowers, who had weirdly been trending in the wrong direction in terms of route participation. The rookie will be massively rostered and could struggle without Adams drawing coverage, but he should get the volume to pay off his price regardless. No Browns’ TE is relevant until David Njoku returns.
Defenses
Both the Browns’ defense and the Raiders’ defense are firmly in play in what projects to be an ugly offensive game.
Lineups
Another great week. Have cashed our primary FD tournament lineups all three weeks so far – and have cashed several of our secondary lineups. Have cashed DK all but one week so far.
Dak + Henry as the core was great on FD. Also found my way to Diontae Johnson there. I ended up going with Lamb and Achane, but had another that cashed even better with Dak + Ferguson and swapping to Bijan and Hill. Godwin was a nice piece, and the Giants DEF came through. There was room for a lot more with Lamb, Achane, Worthy all underwhelming. But we put the pieces in place and put ourselves in position to benefit had the luck swung our way.
DK’s core of Hurts + Smith + Goedert + Olave was key here. Also found my way to Hubbard. Same story though, some of the chalk busted, like Achane and Pollard. Also cashed the secondary lineup swapped to Barkley instead and added Dak + Lamb + Ferguson. And had David Montgomery contributing.
All in all, a nice week… even had one Jennings lineup in a cheaper tournament. If you run through all the names above, it was all there, just not put together on one lineup.
FanDuel
Cash Game – Ted Chymz
I’m going to double-down on a few of the same plays from DK here: Diontae, Najee, and Bowers. If we get value with Steele (who works better in a Half-PPR environment), we can then pay up for Harisson Jr., Hall, and Daniels. Once again, we’re left with enough money for a solid flex play and a decent defense.
Tournament – Reginald Appleby
I’m a little more “all over the place” this week on FD. Have some interest in starting with any of Allen, Murray, Burrow, Dalton, Stroud, and maybe even Baker. I’ll look to ownership again and lean toward Allen to start in our primary and Burrow to start in our secondary. Again though, ownership at QB is usually pretty light even for the chalk, so don’t need to get too crazy. But if you tell me I can get Josh Allen at 3% ownership, I’ll usually sign up for that. Add Khalil Shakir at about 5%. And, the obvious stacking partner on the other side is Derrick Henry, but he’s surely going to be massively owned, right? Nope, he’s not even on the first page of ownership, so far projected to come in at around 4%. Remember a few years ago when Henry wrecked the slate for the entire month of December? Sometimes we don’t want to chase points and we expect regression, but I’ll take my shot at the upside here.
That’s a big start in terms of salary gone, which is why some of the ownership is so low, but I’ll take the upside and play for first place – might get last, but that’s the name of the game.
I want to try to get Najee Harris in and Nico Collins or Diggs and I’ll bring back either Kirk or Strange on the other side. I don’t love that game. It’s strange to say this, but we’re due for a Kelce week – one last hurrah. Although, I remember chasing one more Big Ben hurrah a few years ago. It never came. What actually happened was I swapped out the 100k winning lineup for Big Ben, who, uh, did not win me 100k.
Some others I’d really like to get to, but probably won’t in my main lineup, Mike Evans, Odunze/Moore, Bijan. I’m playing with some sneaky Evans + Bucs DEF lineups, but that might be too cute because it doesn’t appear that the Eagles players are actually picking up much ownership attention, so it may not give us any significant leverage by going there. Others I like are the Browns, Saints, Jets, Steelers, and… the Cardinals.
For a secondary lineup, I’m probably overstacking the Cardinals or Bengals. Something like Burrow + Chase + Gesicki + Diontae Johnson (no one is afraid to chase his points but everyone seems afraid to chase Henry’s??). I’ll add Conner + Cardinals DEF here, which will be very unique and give us lots of leverage. (I’ll probably flip this script and also build a full game stack there of Murray + Harrison + Robinson. I’ll try to get Kyren Wiliams + Odunze or Moore into some of those as well.
Overall, I’m a little scared of not going heavier at RB, with something like Bijan and Breece Hall as starting points, but all the others are great mixes of value and opportunity this week. We’ve always stuck to heavier on RB on FD and it’s even more important this year with scoring down.
DraftKings
Cash Game – Ted Chymz
Let’s start things out by eating some chalk with Jordan Mason and Diontae Johnson. I then like Diggs with Dell out, Bowers with Adams out, and Najee with Warren out. We’re going to need some value, so let’s go with Justin Fields to have the first big fantasy outing of his Steelers career. Adding Tee Higgins leaves enough money for a solid defense and your pick of quite a few decent mid-$5k flex options.
Tournament – Reginald Appleby
I’ll start with Murray here, add Harrison and Brian Robinson on the other side. I’ll get my Kyren Wiliams + Odunze here, although DK is better suited for Moore. I can get to Najee + Steelers DEF, then I just need to fill out WR and Flex. I don’t mind taking some shots on Taysom Hill, with Kamara a little banged up, although Hill isn’t totally healthy himself.
Yahoo
Cash Game – Ted Chymz
Terry McLaurin, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, and the 49ers’ defense stand out as options that are far cheaper on Yahoo than the other two sites, so let’s start with them. Zach Ertz at the absolute minimum price is also hard to pass on. That leaves us with enough cash to get in some premium options: Bijan, Rice, and Conner. There’s just one slot left, with plenty of solid flexes in the $21-$23 range.
Tournament – Reginald Appleby
You have to get pretty far down the list to find Burrow, so I’ll take the value here. Same with Chase who is coming at the same price (checks again…) as Higgins. I’ll add Gesicki again. And Johnson on the other side. Bijan and Conner come in as okay pricing here. I’ll go down to the Raiders DEF at the absolute bottom of the list, leaving plenty of money to take your pick at WR and Flex. Feel free to jump up to the Cardinals DEF or maybe instead to Brian Robinson in the flex. Feel free to mix in some of the cheap options Ted found for cash lineups too.