NFL DFS Building Blocks – Week 2
Welcome back to another week of DFS gold! We’ve changed things up a bit this year, with Ted Chmyz providing the game overviews and cash lineups and, as always, I’ll be providing the tournament lineups. Ted writes some tremendous in-depth overviews, allowing me to focus on making sure you make a lot of money in DFS tournaments! This also gives you another viewpoint to consider – after all, fantasy, especially DFS, is all about making educated guesses, so I’m just one opinion out of the many site contributors that you should be taking into consideration. Good luck! -Reginald Appleby
With one week of NFL action under our belt, we have much more to base decisions on this week than we did last week. Still, it’s important not to overreact to one week, and I’ll highlight a few bounce-back and regression candidates from Week 1 in this article. Let’s get started!
Game Overviews
Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected Totals: Ravens 25.5, Raiders 15.5
We start off with the single most lopsided game on the slate, as the Ravens are projected to destroy the Raiders. This means Baltimore should have a very different game plan than we saw last Thursday against the Chiefs; it will be interesting to see how their offensive line holds up when facing a defense without Chris Jones (although Maxx Crosby is still a massive threat).
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson is the most expensive option on all sites, with a decent gap over the next QB on DraftKings and Yahoo. He can always break a slate, but this may not be the week to play him heavily in a game where the Ravens shouldn’t need to pass much. I don’t know if there will ever be a week to play Gardner Minshew, but it certainly isn’t this one against a tough Ravens defense.
Running Backs
This is a great spot for Derrick Henry. His Baltimore debut was a little lackluster, as he played just 46% of snaps with the Ravens trailing. But the King should get plenty of chances to get rolling in this matchup, making him a valid play with multiple-TD upside. Correspondingly, Justice Hill is not in play with this projected game script. On the Raiders’ side, neither Zamir White nor Alexander Mattison is an appealing option.
Wide Receivers
As much as we all love Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers is the only Ravens receiver to consider in this one. However, coming off a game in which he had a minuscule 4.6 ADOT, Flowers seems a bit expensive for his role in a game where the Ravens won’t have to pass much. Bateman may be a lottery pick if he frees up salary in a tourney lineup. Davante Adams had a quiet Week 1, and things aren’t likely to get much better in Week 2 against a tough Ravens defense. He is always a threat to see a massive target share, but those weeks seem likely to be fewer and farther between with Brock Bowers in town.
Tight Ends
DFS sites clearly don’t know how to handle Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. On DraftKings, their prices are close to one another and relatively low. On FanDuel, Andrews is still the third most expensive TE, while Likely is a decent chunk cheaper … Yahoo is the opposite. Regardless of price, I’m fading Likely on all three sites: He had just a 60% route participation rate in Week 1, making his production hugely unsustainable. As for Andrews, I think he’s in consideration as a bounceback play on both DK and Yahoo. However, he’s not the best TE to target in this game, as the Brock Bowers breakout is already upon us. Bowers posted a 73% route participation rate and 24% target share in his NFL debut. Those are great numbers, and he’s worth playing as long as his price stays in the middle tier of tight ends.
Defenses
The Ravens’ defense is absolutely in play, although it is expensive. The Raiders’ defense is not.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Totals: Chargers 22.5, Panthers 16.5
After one week, the Panthers still look like the worst team in the NFL; they were terrible on both sides of the ball in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Chargers didn’t exactly shine in their first week under Jim Harbaugh, but they did enough to comfortably beat the Raiders. They should take care of business again this week.
Quarterbacks
No one should play Bryce Young in DFS until we see multiple steps forward from the 2023 first-overall pick. Justin Herbert is cheap enough (except on FanDuel) to be enticing against a Panthers defense that just got absolutely lit up by Derek Carr. However, there is a real risk that he finishes with low volume as Harbaugh is happy to run the ball down the Panthers’ throats.
Running Backs
Speaking of running the ball down the Panthers’ throats, J.K. Dobbins is a very intriguing value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings (he is priced up on Yahoo). He looked excellent last week, breaking off several big runs and clearly outplaying Gus Edwards (who isn’t on the radar despite an excellent matchup). In this juicy matchup and game script, Dobbins could have another huge game at a cheap price. Miles Sanders saw a surprising amount of work in Week 1, making both himself and Chuba Hubbard unusable on this offense.
Wide Receivers
As much as I love Diontae Johnson, it’s tough to justify playing anyone from this Panthers offense. If you want to throw a dart at a Carolina wide receiver, he is the one to do it with. His price isn’t bad, and he should see volume. On the Chargers’ side, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey were all involved in Week 1. Palmer ran the most routes but saw the fewest targets, McConkey saw the most targets on the fewest routes, and QJ was in the middle on both metrics. For this week, however, the sophomore Johnston is easily the cheapest member of the trio. He’s my favorite play of the bunch, but it’s tough to trust any of the three of them.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst is cheap and ran a solid route share in Week 1, but he doesn’t have the volume to be in play. The same applies to Ja’tavion Sanders.
Defenses
Any defense playing the Panthers is in play, and the Chargers’ defense is no exception. They should be fairly heavily rostered, but for good reason. The Panthers’ defense projects to be very low-rostered, also for good reason.
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected Totals: Saints 20.5, Cowboys 26.5
The Saints’ offense dropped 42 points in Week 1, the most in the league. The question is whether that was entirely due to the Panthers’ incompetence or if Klint Kubiak has really turned this offense around. Personally, I lean towards giving Kubiak credit. The Saints’ rates of play-action and pre-snap motion, which before were some of the worst in the league, were excellent last week. And Derek Carr has shown before that he can be a very efficient quarterback in a good system. Meanwhile, the Cowboys also dominated their Week 1 matchup, dismantling the Browns. We will see this week how real both of those performances were.
Quarterbacks
I’m so tempted to recommend playing Derek Carr. If he were playing a defense worse than the Cowboys’, I would. But as much as I believe in the Klint Kubiak renaissance in New Orleans, it’s hard to see Carr returning another ceiling week against this Dallas defense, so he’s only a play in large tournament formats. Dak Prescott is a bit expensive on DraftKings but is otherwise a fine mid-range QB1 play who can also be stacked.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott saw more work than Rico Dowdle in Week 1, but both were involved enough to cap the other’s ceiling. Neither is particularly appealing. Alvin Kamara, on the other hand, continues to be a volume machine even as his efficiency wanes. He’s absolutely in play, especially in DraftKings’ full-PPR format.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb is the most expensive WR on every site this week, but he’s still an option. Brandin Cooks is tempting with Jake Ferguson looking likely to be out, but he’s priced a bit high for a player with a very low floor. On the New Orleans side, I love Chris Olave as a bounce-back play. He is where I’m making my bet that this Saints offense is the real deal. Rashid Shaheed is also an option, as he now has a full-time role in this offense and is always a threat to break a big play.
Tight Ends
The Saints somehow have three tight ends worth mentioning, but none of Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau, or Juwan Johnson sees enough volume to be more than a TD dart throw. Assuming Jake Ferguson is out, 2023 second-rounder Luke Schoonmaker is intriguing at a miniscule price. He didn’t do much as a rookie, but his profile is encouraging.
Defenses
Sticking with my theme of respecting the Saints’ offense, I’m fading the Cowboys’ defense, especially as the top-priced option on DK and Yahoo. I’m also fading the Saints’ defense, as the Cowboys look to still be one of the league’s better offenses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Projected Totals: Buccaneers 21.5, Lions 30.5
This is the first 30-point team total we’ve seen this season, so the Lions are likely to be a very popular team for one-off plays and stacks. The Buccaneers’ offense is also exciting, although it’s hard to tell how much of their Week 1 production was thanks to their matchup with the Commanders.
Quarterbacks
As the quarterback of a team with a 30.5-point total, Jared Goff is absolutely in play. He doesn’t add value with his legs, so he will have to get lucky with a few passing touchdowns, but that’s certainly possible in this matchup. Baker Mayfield isn’t much cheaper than Goff (actually more expensive on Yahoo) and doesn’t have the same clear upside. He can be played in a tournament stack, but there are likely better options otherwise.
Running Backs
Bucky Iriving is coming for Rachaad White’s job, and both should be avoided until that situation is resolved. Meanwhile, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can absolutely coexist; with a total this high, they each have a chance at a multiple-touchdown game. Gibbs has the higher upside, but he is priced higher and will be more heavily rostered.
Wide Receivers
I hate to say it, but Mike Evans is priced higher than I would feel comfortable with this week. Even in a great matchup, he doesn’t project for the same volume as the names around him. He’s always capable of a two-TD game, but he’ll need one this week to return value. Chris Godwin looked good last week in his return to the slot; he is also an option. If you really want to get sneaky in a tournament, rookie Jalen McMillan actually led Tampa’s receivers in routes last week and clearly has a deep-threat role. On the Lions’ side, it is Jameson Williams season. Coming off a massive Week 1 game, his price is still outside the top 30 receivers, making him is absolutely worth playing. Amon-Ra St. Brown is also always an option and will surely be more involved this week.
Tight Ends
As either the first or second most expensive TE on the slate, Sam LaPorta essentially needs to score a touchdown to be a good play this week. He has a good chance to do that, making him an option, but I’d rather pay down and use that money elsewhere. Cade Otton runs a ton of routes but isn’t involved enough to be a play.
Defenses
Neither the Lions’ defense nor the Buccaneers’ defense is in play in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Projected Totals: Colts 20.5, Packers 19.5
We come back to Earth with this game, which might be ugly. Anthony Richardson showed in Week 1 that he is incredibly explosive but also still incredibly inaccurate. Malik Willis, unfortunately, has just been flat-out bad in his NFL career. His career -0.46 expected points added per dropback is rough enough to make nearly the entire Packers’ offense unplayable.
Quarterbacks
As mentioned, I’m not touching Malik Willis, even if he theoretically has rushing upside at a cheap price. Anthony Richardson could absolutely have another huge game, but his price is high, and his floor is low. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs is essentially the only Packer to consider this week, as Matt LaFleur will likely lean on his veteran RB to keep the ball out of Willis’ hands. The question is whether he’ll have the ceiling to make rostering him worth it. Jonathan Taylor had incredible usage in Week 1, and he will see plenty of work if this game gets ugly, making him very much a pay-up option.
Wide Receivers
I’m not playing any Packers receivers. They each already had usage question marks, and Willis has never thrown for 100 yards in a game … or an NFL touchdown. If there’s an argument for one Packer WR, it’s Jayden Reed, who should see plenty of designed YAC opportunities and carries … but it will be tough for him to build an entire fantasy day out of that. There’s not much to like on the Colts’ side, either. Michael Pittman saw a 42% target share in Week 1, which is enough to keep him in consideration, but he’s a terrible fit as a possession receiver with an inaccurate, boom-or-bust QB in Richardson. Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce could both pay off low prices with huge plays, but they could also both finish with zero points.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft may have overtaken Luke Musgrave, but neither is in play with Willis under center. The same goes for whomever Indianapolis is rolling out.
Defenses
Honestly, both of these defenses are playable. Willis should provide plenty of points to the Colts’ defense, and Richardson could easily throw a pick or two for the Packers’ defense along with his huge TDs.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Totals: Browns 19.5, Jaguars 22.5
The Browns’ offense looked truly awful last week; we will see if that was just because of the matchup with the Cowboys. The Jaguars are projected to win at home, but they may also struggle against a tough Cleveland unit.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson is terrible and not worth considering. Trevor Lawrence isn’t much better; his ceiling will be capped by the Browns’ elite defense.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford saw an excellent workload in Week 1, but his price is too high relative to other backs in better situations to be particularly appealing. This could be a sneaky bounce-back spot for Travis Etienne. Tank Bigsby did outperform him last week, but he’s not coming for ETN’s job any time soon. Outside of DraftKings, where he is way overpriced, Etienne is an intriguing high-upside/low-rostered play.
Wide Receivers
It’s tough to know what to make of Jacksonville’s receivers after Week 1. Gabe Davis led the group in routes and yards, but we know who he is at this point in his career. Christian Kirk has the best history of production, but he is priced fairly high and ran the fewest routes of the team’s starters in Week 1. I’m tempted by rookie Brian Thomas Jr., who looked good in his NFL debut and is very cheap on DraftKings (and weirdly expensive on Yahoo). Davis is also a dart-throw option at a cheap price, but you’re just hoping for a big play. On the Browns’ side, Amari Cooper is still an option, but it’s hard to trust anyone given how rough Watson looked in Week 1.
Tight Ends
Jordan Akins may draw some interest with David Njoku out, but this slate isn’t starved enough for value to make him a worthwhile play. Evan Engram is priced too high given the lack of usage he saw in Week 1 (and in 2023 with Kirk healthy).
Defenses
Both of these defenses can be considered. The Browns’ defense is good enough to be in play against a just okay offense like Jacksonville, and their offense looked bad enough in Week 1 to make the Jaguars’ defense an option.
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected Totals: 49ers 25.5, Vikings 20.5
Christian McCaffrey has been ruled out, drastically impacting this game. No matter who is on the field, Kyle Shanahan’s offense will score points, and it’s starting to look as though Kevin O’Connell has a similar thing going in Minnesota.
Quarterbacks
Both Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold are capable of efficient, productive outings, but it’s hard to see either reaching a huge ceiling outcome. Darnold is cheap enough to be a bit interesting, but it’s easy to see why given his tough matchup with the 49ers’ defense. Purdy is more expensive, but he does have three or even four-TD games in his range of outcomes.
Running Backs
CMC has been ruled out, so Jordan Mason is essentially a cash-game lock on all sites. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones looked very good in his Vikings debut, but his usage wasn’t actually that great, with Ty Chandler very much involved. I would stay away from him in this matchup.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson is always an option, although his Week 1 performance was just okay. Deebo Samuel is similarly always in play due to his ceiling; this is especially true with CMC out, as he will see more work from the backfield. Brandon Aiyuk looked rusty in his first game since signing that big contract, and I’d avoid him until he looks more like his old self.
Tight Ends
George Kittle is always a threat to score multiple touchdowns, and his price is not too bad. No tight end on the Vikings is worth considering until T.J. Hockenson comes back.
Defenses
If the Jets couldn’t stop the 49ers, the Vikings’ defense sure can’t. The 49ers’ defense can be played, but Darnold played well enough last week that they aren’t particularly appealing.
Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots
Projected Totals: Patriots 16.5, Seahawks 20.5
With how they shut down the Bengals in Week 1, there’s a chance the Patriots have another elite defense on their hands … which they will need, because their offense looks miserable. The Seahawks won their Week 1 matchup on the back of feeding Kenneth Walker, who is now doubtful for this week’s game.
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett is never a DFS play. Geno Smith might be, but not this week against a defense that just made Joe Burrow look silly.
Running Backs
Assuming Walker misses this matchup, Zach Charbonnet is an obvious play. He’s not priced as cheap as you would hope for from a surprise starter, so he’s not quite a must-play in cash games, but he’s close. Rhamondre Stevenson had an excellent Week 1, dominating touches and looking good with them. He’s a solid option at not-too-expensive prices.
Wide Receivers
It’s hard to trust any of Seattle’s receivers. The Seahawks employed a run-heavy approach in Week 1 with a pass rate over 5% below expected, and that’s likely to continue in a matchup where they are favored against a tough secondary. Tyler Lockett outperformed D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba last week, but the veteran did play fewer snaps than he has in past years. Metcalf is worth considering, but I wouldn’t play either of the other two. In fact, Metcalf is the only WR to play in this game, as the Patriots’ receiver room is an absolute mess.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant finally saw a full set of snaps in Week 1, but his role in this offense is still too small. Hunter Henry is a solid, if unexciting, value play given he may be the Patriots’ top target.
Defenses
Any team against Jacoby Brissett is worth considering, so you can play the Seahawks’ defense. And, with how they performed last week, the Patriots’ defense can also be considered.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Projected Totals: Titans 18.5, Jets 22.5
The Titans lost to the Bears in Week 1 in a truly ugly game. They finished with just 4.0 yards per play, the sixth-worst in a week full of terrible offensive outings. Meanwhile, the Jets showed some promise in Aaron Rodgers’ return but eventually crumbled against an elite 49ers defense.
Quarterbacks
I’m not playing either Aaron Rodgers or Will Levis, who respectively lack the rushing upside and passing efficiency to be good options.
Running Backs
This could be a huge week for Breece Hall, who saw elite usage before the game got out of hand last Monday night. He projects to be massively rostered but is still a good option. Tony Pollard won out over Tyjae Spears in Week 1, but both are scary to play for this week against an elite Jets defense. A negative game script would favor Spears, who is cheap, but it’s not enough to risk playing him after he saw such a limited role in Week 1.
Wide Receivers
The Titans’ receivers, from Calvin Ridley to a banged-up DeAndre Hopkins to Tyler Boyd, are not worth playing against Sauce Gardner and Co. On the Jets side, I am absolutely not chasing points after Allen Lazard’s big day, even if he’s cheap. Instead, Garrett Wilson, who saw a massive 38% target share in Week 1, is tempting.
Tight Ends
Neither Tyler Conklin nor Chigoziem Okonkwo has a big enough role to be worth considering.
Defenses
The Jets’ defense is expensive (although not on Yahoo) but could be worth it against the mistake-prone Levis. The Titans’ defense is not a play.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Projected Totals: Commanders 21.5, Giants 20.5
This divisional matchup is one of the closest on the slate, although there’s not much to get excited about for DFS. Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced offense will mean plenty of opportunities for both teams, but it’s unclear if either offense is prepared to take advantage.
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels is the most exciting player from this matchup. He showed up in classic dual-threat Konami code fashion in Week 1, finishing as one of the best QBs on the week despite a bad passing performance thanks to 16 carries for 88 yards and two TDs. Any QB with that level of rushing volume is always an option. Daniel Jones, once a dual-threat fantasy option himself, is no longer someone to consider, even at a low price in a great matchup
Running Backs
Devin Singletary saw a great workload in Week 1, and his price is fairly reasonable. His upside isn’t tournament-winning, but he could be a solid cash pick. For the Commanders, we saw a classic early-down/receiving-down split between Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. Robinson has a bit of appeal in a similar vein to Singletary, but Ekeler isn’t quite involved enough to consider.
Wide Receivers
Compared to his talent level, Malik Nabers is still underpriced. The question is whether Daniel Jones will be able to get him the ball. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option. I have to mention Wan’Dale Robinson coming off a 12-target game, but his usage is so low-ADOT that it’s hard to see him truly popping off. For the Commanders, Terry McLaurin is definitely in play against a miserable Giants secondary. However, I’m not playing any other Commanders WRs; no WR2 has emerged, and Daniels is clearly still raw as a passer.
Tight Ends
Theo Johnson and Zach Ertz are both slightly appealing. They both ran plenty of routes in Week 1 and are on teams desperate for weapons. However, they are both only really plays in large field tournaments at this point.
Defenses
The Commanders’ defense projects to have the highest rostership of any player on this entire slate (although Mason may change that with CMC ruled out). That chalk can absolutely be eaten if you like, as the Giants’ offense is ineffective and sack-happy. On that note, so is Jayden Daniels, so the Giants’ defense can also be considered.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected Totals: Cardinals 24.5, Rams 23.5
The Rams’ offense was absolutely massacred by injuries in Week 1, losing half of their offensive line and star receiver Puka Nacua. Meanwhile, the Cardinals threw the ball to Greg Dortch instead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Still, there is a lot to like about this divisional matchup for DFS purposes.
Quarterbacks
Both of these quarterbacks can be played. Matthew Stafford was on fire in Week 1 and should stay hot against a very beatable Cardinals defense. Kyler Murray has dual-threat upside and looked much better than his final numbers would indicate against the Bills.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams saw the same massive workload as last season against the Lions; he is absolutely in play every week until that changes. For the Cardinals, James Conner continues to be one of the league’s most underrated backs, although he did cede passing-down work to Emari Demercado. His price is all over the place depending on the site, but he can be played against a Rams defense that the Lions ran on at will to finish off last week’s game.
Wide Receivers
With Nacua out, Cooper Kupp may be the highest-rostered WR on the slate. Even still, his absurd target share makes it hard not to play him in all formats. If you’re looking for another Rams WR, I like Demarcus Robinson, but Tyler Johnson will also be involved at an even cheaper price. On the Arizona side, it’s hard to trust anyone. Greg Dortch racked up targets in Week 1, but he could easily disappear in any given game. It’s tempting to bet on a bounceback from Marvin Harrison Jr., but he looked flat-out bad in his NFL debut (although his price is insanely cheap on Yahoo).
Tight Ends
The player to stack with Kyler Murray is Trey McBride, who saw an excellent 29% target share in Week 1. He’s not the most expensive tight end on the slate, but I’d argue that he should be. For the Rams, Colby Parkinson ran a ton of routes in Week 1 and is very cheap (especially on DraftKings). He’s a dart throw play if you’re looking for a value TE.
Defenses
I’m not playing either the Cardinals’ defense or the Rams’ defense in what I think may be a surprisingly high-scoring matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Totals: Chiefs 27.5, Bengals 20.5
The Bengals have a history of starting slow and a history of performing well against the Chiefs. But their Week 1 performance was so rough that it’s tough to buy in against a talented KC defense. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are the Chiefs.
Quarterbacks
If the Chiefs are the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. He is expensive for a quarterback with limited rushing upside, but if anyone can pay it off, it’s him. On the other hand, I’m not backing Joe Burrow after last week’s performance. He looked bad, Tee Higgins is doubtful, and this Chiefs defense is no joke.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco saw great usage last week, but there is a chance Samaje Perine’s role will expand now that he’s had more time with the team. Still, Pacheco is definitely in play. On the Bengals’ side, Chase Brown didn’t see enough work to be considered. Zack Moss did see solid usage, and his price isn’t too bad, but he’s risky.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice is simply too cheap given the amount of targets he will see from Mahomes every week. As for the other KC receivers, Xavier Worthy had an electric NFL debut, but he didn’t actually see enough usage to trust him aside from as a large tournament play. For the Bengals, Ja’Marr Chase is an option, but the Chiefs may opt to double-cover him as they did Mark Andrews last week. Andrei Iosivas was a huge bust last week, which is a good reminder that receivers aren’t like running backs; a large role is no guarantee of success.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce is always an option, especially in a game with an AFC rival. Mike Gesicki did not see enough routes in Week 1 to be considered.
Defenses
The Bengals’ defense is obviously not an option against Mahomes and Co. The Chiefs’ defense is a bit more intriguing, as they are talented and not too expensive. They could easily be a huge play if the Begnals’ Week 1 struggles weren’t just rust, but that play could certainly also backfire.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Projected Totals: Broncos 16.5, Steelers 19.5
The final game of the week promises to be an ugly one, with neither team projected for even 20 points. Justin Fields looked surprisingly competent in his Steelers debut, but the Steelers still failed to get the ball in the end zone. Bo Nix, on the other hand, looked surprisingly terrible.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields rushed the ball 14 times last week. In 17 career games with at least 10 rush attempts, he has averaged 21.5 fantasy points. He is absolutely in play given his cheap price. Bo Nix is not.
Running Backs
Denver used a weird split in Week 1, giving nearly equal work to Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams. Even with rookie Audric Estime now on IR, it’s hard to confidently project enough work for either of them to be playable against a good Steelers defense. On the other side, Najee Harris saw tons of volume in Week 1, while Jaylen Warren was barely involved. Harris is playable, although he’s not without risk due to the low total and the chance Warren is more involved another week removed from a preseason hamstring injury.
Wide Receivers
George Pickens is the only Steelers WR to consider. Even playing a weirdly low snap share in Week 1, he posted an absurd 74.4% air yards share. Courtland Sutton also posted a massive air yards share in Week 1: 62.9%. He’s hard to trust with a struggling rookie QB against a bad defense, but he could pay off on volume alone.
Tight Ends
No Broncos tight end played a big enough role in Week 1 to be a DFS option. Pat Freiermuth for the Steelers posted okay usage numbers but nothing exciting enough to make him an enticing play.
Defenses
The Steelers’ defense is a great play. The Broncos’ defense is worth considering if you want to pay down, as we know that Fields is very sack-prone, but they’re by no means a smash.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football die-hard and expert. To ask him questions or complain about his takes, find him on Twitter @Tchmyz.
Lineups
FanDuel
Cash Game – Ted Chymz
Jordan Mason, again. Then, Isiah Pacheco is cheaper relatively on FanDuel and benefits from the Half-PPR scoring. Let’s also go with an Arizona stack, Murray and McBride, with Kupp coming back the other way. The Commanders’ defense is also an obvious choice. Add in two of my favorite plays of the week in Jameson Williams and Chris Olave, and there should be enough money left over for an elite flex play.
Tournament – Reginald Appleby
Well, we fell victim to soft week one pricing on FanDuel last week, but not in the way you think…. Cashed in all lineups, so had a profitable week, but… when I first built my lineups I had Stafford, Kupp, Hill, and Jameson Williams. I also had Mixon. Tremendous core that would have put me near the top of leaderboards, but because pricing was so soft and I didn’t love a lot of high-end RBs, I ended up moving up to St. Brown instead of Williams. Had I kept Williams and moved up at TE and DEF could have been a huge week. All that said though, was still a very nice week.
Week one is the week of uncertainty, week two is the week of overreactions. I love playing bounceback players in week two. Enter St. Brown again. I’m focusing on the TB @ DET game and will build around Goff here, but I have some lineups built around Baker that I like equally well. I’ll probably go Goff here and Baker on DK.
So Goff, St. Brown, and Godwin as my core stack. I think there is some usage risk with Henry but I’m locking him in and I also want to play the Ravens DEF, but I’m moving down in salary and playing the Patriots. The Seahawks should be better than the Bengals last week, but it’s still a tough task going across the country to face the Patriots.
I was originally using a Ford + Engram ministack, but have dropped Ford for now. Still keeping Engram and I also like Nabers for a bounceback game.
Playing around with the other spots. I’m likely to have more one-off plays than I usually have, where I normally tend to force in more correlated ministacks.
For my Baker lineups, if you want to go in this direction instead (and I still might) I like getting some exposure to the Rams as well, going with the more unconventional Kyren Williams and Kupp stack. Kupp isn’t a bounceback but he still seems priced too cheap on FD. He’ll be popular but adding Williams will make us unique. This one starts with Mayfield + Godwin but it’s hard to fit St. Brown in, so trying to get to Gibbs or Montgomery, leaning to Montgomery as he’s cheaper and I’ll go with the game script that the Lions win and the Bucs are playing from behind. It’s definitely not a value price on Montgomery, but in tournaments we don’t really care that he splits the backfield with Gibbs, we’re making a “what if” bet on Montgomery getting a couple TDs and more work than expected.
Realistically, I like both of these enough that I’ll probably just play them both.
Player I’m most afraid of not having: Jordan Mason and/or SF DEF. I might make a third lineup. When a player is expected to be so popular, I love making at least one fade lineup simply because of the enormous leverage if he busts or just has an average game. Paying up at RB with something like Henry, Williams, Gibbs/Montgomery is a way to further leverage all the lineups that will be built around having one cheap RB.
DraftKings
Cash Game – Ted Chymz
Jordan Mason is an obvious start to any cash game lineup. Then, I’m tempted to get weird with a stack of Fields and Pickens. Add Dobbins for more value, and we can smash in the very chalky Kupp and Hall. Pick your favorite TE from the Ravens/Raiders game, a defense, and a mid-range WR, and you should be good to go.
Tournament – Reginald Appleby
Baker does appear too cheap on DraftKings so I’ll start there. I’ll keep the stack with Godwin and St. Brown. Kupp is priced higher here, so I’ll stick to Kyren and I’ll add McBride at TE for the ministack. Dobbins feels cheap at RB. Patriots seem cheap here as well. Then I’ll just find the most reasonable options I can with the little salary remaining, going slightly studs and duds here with two cheap WRs to fill out my lineup.
Yahoo
Cash Game – Ted Chymz
I’ll pivot off the Jordan Mason chalk here, just in case he disappoints. Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr. is absurdly cheap. If we also add Zach Charbonnet, there’s room for multiple studs in our lineup: CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, and Derrick Henry. I’ll take the weird discount on Andrews compared to Likely and stack him with Lamar. That leaves us having to pay down at Flex and DST, but there are some good value options at both slots.
Tournament – Reginald Appleby
Goff + Godwin + St. Brown is a nice value core here. I like Henry’s price. I’ll add Bucky Irving here trying to be early on him as mentioned in Ted’s week one recap; hoping the field doesn’t realize his usage seems for real. That gives us a full game stack on the TB side. I’ll add Mark Andrews getting what should be nice leverage on a super popular Likely. Doing fine with salary so I’ll add the Ravens D here. Note the pricing disparities we talked about last week – Patriots DEF is the 5th most expensive on Yahoo, much higher than on FD and DK. In this case, I actually think Yahoo has it right. Now plenty of money to take your pick on another WR and Flex. Marvin Harrison Jr is priced right for his production last week but is cheaper than both Dortch and Michael Wilson here. I’ll take a flier on him producing at the level of his high season-long expectations.