Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivots
Moving off the chalk has always been a guide to success in DFS. Let’s explore what the simulation and projected ownerships say about where we can pivot from the public and gain an edge on the field.
Quarterbacks
DK- Patrick Mahomes, as he does in most cases, is leading ownership projections. I’m not here to tell you not to play him because he is always viable to lead a slate. At the time of writing this article Lamar is very under owned for his upside but I expect that to come up before lock and I rarely suggest paying up in this column. Jayden Daniels went mainstream with his rushing upside and he might go higher owned than Mahomes. Let’s stick with rushin upside and I’ll give you two guys that should go under 5% owned with upside to finish top 10. Sitting at $5300 and $5400 Daniel Jones and Justin Fields both playing in winnable matchups with upside in their legs and pretty solid WR1’s to get a few big gains out of. I have Fields as my QB6 this week, gross…
FD- Fields is still intriguing but watch ownership numbers on QB’s overall because I am seeing Anthony Richardson at rock bottom usage in big fields and I like that. Baker Mayfield is where I’m leaning in a game that could go well over 55 points and has been largely ignored so far this week.
Running Backs
DK- Breece Hall sits on top of projected ownership but I don’t actually think it’s bad chalk. I am still of the mind to pivot off the top priced and top owned option. If I am paying up it’s back to Alvin Kamara who really has no one stealing touches and checkdown man Carr leading the team. I am also all aboard the Jonathan Tayor train as without Love Green Bay will struggle to keep possession and Indiapolis would be smart to let Richardson and Taylor control the clock on the ground. Let’s save some money and build around Aaron Jones as the pressure from the SF front should force a ton of check downs. The best bang for your buck in my book this week will be Jerome Ford and J.K. Dobbins. If you have seen all the healthy games in Dobbins career you would swear he is a HOF talent, stick with him as long as he’s on the field.
FD- See above for most the same advice but a further bump to Dobbins and adding Rachaad White into the mix.
Wide Receivers
DK- Kupp is going to be the most owned player in every contest this week. I’m going to full fade and hope for a bust. When you see under 2% ownership projections for mega talents, simply look no further, don’t over analyze. Chase, Jefferson, Wilson, Olave, Adams, Evans… Start with one or two of these guys and you get the upside of Kupp and a ton more leverage. Godwin is getting a ton of love this week but I am team Evans until proven otherwise and in the same game give me Jameson Williams all day over St. Brown at an ownership discount until his price and popularity catch up.
FD- The aforementioned Stud receivers that are underowned on DK are even more so on Fanduel. Pickens, Kirk, Diontae Johnson and Aiyuk all join the conversation as well.
Tight Ends
DK – Likely is going to be so over owned I am on an auto-fade, and Parkinson is tempting at his price but I can’t pull the trigger this week. Kelce and McBride are going to lead projections every week and a lot of times I am either paying up or punting TE and this week is more a punt week with how much I like WR studs. Brock Bowers is my value lock and pivot from top pricing, I’m going back to Mundt for short outs, and I am again considering a total punt in Theo Johnson.
FD- It’s all Bowers, Engram for value pivots and Zach Ertz, Theo Johnson for punt pricing. Hunter Henry intrigues me for TD upside this week.
Defenses
Ownership be damned, I am playing whatever squad is up against (in order) Carolina, Denver, Tennessee, or Green Bay while Love is out.