DFS Building Blocks Week 1

NFL football is finally back, and we have a 12-game slate to celebrate the first Sunday of the season. The first week of DFS each year is both the toughest and most exciting, as we truly have no idea what to expect. Let’s justget right into it!

Game Overviews

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Projected Totals: Steelers 19.5, Falcons 22.5

It’s very tough to know what to expect from this game, as both teams will be running entirely new offenses and have brand-new starting quarterbacks. The Falcons moved on from Arthur Smith, and he happened to end up with their Week 1 opponents. 

This game also has one of the lower totals on the slate but still features a few highly-priced players, including Bijan Robinson as one of the most expensive Flex plays of the week. I wouldn’t recommend full-stacking either of these teams, but there are a few intriguing value plays.

Quarterbacks

Neither Kirk Cousins nor Russell Wilson is particularly appealing. On a slate loaded with elite quarterbacks, it’s hard to see these aging pocket passers putting up tournament-winning ceilings, and they aren’t good cash game plays either. Update: Wilson might be out with an injury, in which case Justin Fields will get the start. Given his low price and rushing upside, Fields is a potential value play.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson is always in play as a pay-up option at running back; no other RB on this slate can match his combination of ceiling and floor. Tyler Allgeier is priced cheaply, but it’s hard to justify putting him in lineups until we see whether he has a real role in the Falcons’ new offense. On the Steelers’ side, both Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris are interesting plays. Warren is more explosive, but Harris projects to see more volume. On DraftKings, where they are the same price, Harris is the obvious cash game pick, while Warren is more interesting at a discount on other sites or as a low-rostered pick for tournaments.

Wide Receivers

There are really only two players worth considering at the WR position in this game: George Pickens and Drake London. Both are viable options, and London especially is being priced at a huge discount compared to his seasonal fantasy football ADP. 

Tight Ends

Here we reach one of my favorite value plays on this slate. Like his teammate London, Kyle Pitts is priced at a massive discount compared to his seasonal ADP (on DraftKings, anyway). DK has him priced lower than David Njoku, Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Schultz, all players he is being drafted ahead of for seasonal fantasy. This means he does project to be highly rostered, but he is worth playing regardless. Pat Freiermuth on the Steelers’ side is also a very viable TE play. He may lack true tournament-winning ceiling, but he projects to see plenty of volume in an Arthur Smith offense without many targets outside of Pickens.

Defenses

The Steelers’ defense is not a consideration unless you plan on playing lots of lineups, even at a cheap price. Atlanta’s new-look offense is something worth seeing before targeting them in DFS. The Falcons’ defense, on the other hand, is a very intriguing play. This Steelers offense is going to be bad, and Russell Wilson has been very sack-happy in recent years. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills

Projected Totals: Cardinals 20.5, Bills 27.5

Now this is a much more exciting game. The Bills have the highest total on the slate, and I think this total underrates the Cardinals’ potential to keep up.

You can stack either side of this game, although Arizona is perhaps easier to stack as their production split seems easier to predict. On the other hand, if you do pick the right receiving pieces to go with Josh Allen, a Buffalo stack has the potential to put up absurd numbers. 

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen is easily the most expensive QB on every site, but it’s for good reason. He has the highest floor of any quarterback and the ability to put up a week massive enough to be a must-have in tournaments and singlehandedly win cash games. With that said, Kyler Murray may actually be the better quarterback play in this game. Kyler and the Cardinals will have to go all-out to keep up in this one, and his dual-threat ability gives him a very respectable ceiling/floor combo of his own at a much lower price than Allen.

Running Backs

James Conner and James Cook are both viable players, although not without their flaws. Cook is expensive given his low touchdown equity, but he could easily break a big play or two to make up for it; the Cardinals’ run defense was flat-out atrocious last season. Conner doesn’t have much receiving upside, but he should see enough volume to be a respectable cash game play at least. 

Wide Receivers

This is where this matchup really gets interesting. On the Cardinals’ side, Marvin Harrison Jr. is very expensive for a rookie making his NFL debut, but he has the talent and game environment to potentially pay it off. Michael Wilson is also a viable dart throw if you want a cheap way into this explosive game environment. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel are all priced relatively similarly, and one of them is very likely to provide great value … the question is which one it will be. If I had to pick, I would back the veteran Samuel, who is the most likely to consistently see the field. If you really want to get weird, Mack Hollins is priced at the minimum on DraftKings and was listed as a starter on the Bills’ first depth chart of the season — he could easily provide value with a single long TD a la Gabe Davis.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid is the second most expensive tight end on the slate on all sites; he didn’t do enough as a rookie to deserve that (especially with Dawson Knox healthy), but he does come with huge upside given the lack of top targets in Buffalo’s offense. However, I would much rather draft Trey McBride, who is similarly priced. McBride’s sophomore season was what managers are hoping for this year from Kincaid, as he posted absurd target shares and fantasy totals down the stretch. He provides a much higher floor and a similar ceiling to his opposing counterpart. 

Defenses

This game projects to be too high-scoring to target either the Bills’ defense or the Cardinals’ defense.

Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears

Projected Totals: Titans 20.5, Bears 23.5

Caleb Williams’ NFL debut makes this one of the most exciting matchups of the week. We also will get answers to some questions that have hovered over this fantasy season all summer: Is Tony Pollard or Tyjae Spears the Titans’ lead back? Which of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, or Rome Odunze will be the best fantasy pick?

This game also has the lingering question of DeAndre Hopkins’ availability hanging over it. The superstar receiver is still recovering from a knee injury suffered in training camp but did practice in a limited fashion on Thursday. Whether or not Hopkins is able to play will greatly impact how this game shakes up from a DFS perspective.

Quarterbacks

It’s tempting to roll out Caleb Williams, perhaps with a whole Bears stack, in his NFL debut. The first overall pick in this year’s draft was excellent in the preseason, including showing some intriguing rushing ability. His price isn’t bad at all, either. However, it may be more prudent to wait and see, especially for cash games. A similar logic can be applied to Will Levis, although he is even cheaper than Williams. On the other hand, Levis was an absolute gunslinger as a rookie, which does come with fantasy upside. If Hopkins is healthy, he may be worth a dart in tournaments along with one or more of his teammates.  

Running Backs

Titans OC Nick Holz said on Thursday that Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears should see a 50/50 split in the team’s season-opener, which makes Spears, who is cheaper on all sites, an interesting option. Pollard also has upside, though, so he could be a pivot play for tournaments. On the Bears’ side, D’Andre Swift is the only player we can confidently project a large role for, so he is the only player worth considering in most cases. However, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson may be involved enough to cannibalize Swift’s own value. The Chicago backfield is a wait-and-see situation for me in Week 1.

Wide Receivers

The Titans’ side of things is heavily dependent on whether DeAndre Hopkins is active. If he doesn’t play, Calvin Ridley should see tons of volume and becomes a great option; otherwise, Ridley is just a solid play. As for Hopkins himself, the chance he plays a limited or decoy role even if active makes him too risky to trust. For Chicago, all three of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and rookie Rome Odunze are viable plays. However, I would pick DJM over Allen, especially given the latter is priced more expensively on DraftKings. Speaking of DK pricing, Odunze is very intriguing at just $4,000. He has the talent to break a slate at that price, the only question is how many routes he will see in his NFL debut.    

Defenses

Levis was mistake-prone and inefficient as a rookie, so the Bears’ defense is worth considering. Caleb Williams, on the other hand, is scary enough even in his NFL debut to avoid the Titans’ defense.

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Totals: Patriots 15.5, Bengals 24.5

The Bengals are the biggest favorites on the slate against a Patriots team that is likely to be awful this season. There’s very little to like on the New England side of this game, aside from throwing darts in multi-entry tournaments. 

Of course, the big question in Cincinnati is whether Ja’Marr Chase will sign a new contract in time to play in this contest; the fact that he has returned to practice is a great sign, but it’s no guarantee. 

Quarterbacks 

Jacoby Brissett is really not worth considering, regardless of his dirt-cheap price. He simply doesn’t bring enough projected production to the table. Joe Burrow, of course, is a different story. Especially if Chase is active, he’s a viable pick; the only issue could be if the Bengals’ get up early and take their foot off the gas. 

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson is cheap, but it’s very hard to get excited about him. This is especially true with Antonio Gibson potentially stealing the targets that previously allowed Stevenson to have some huge fantasy weeks. Given that the Bengals are huge favorites, one of Zack Moss or Chase Brown is a great pick to have a big week. My money’s on Moss, who is listed as the team’s RB1 on the depth chart and profiles better as a player to grind out a big win and score goal-line touchdowns. Brown ranked dead last among players with at least 44 carries in 2023 with an abysmal 34.1% success rate.

Wide Receivers

Even with limited practice time, Ja’Marr Chase is always worth considering (if he plays), especially given that his price is not as high as the top receivers on this slate. Tee Higgins has suddenly popped up on the injury report as Doubtful, so he is unlikely to play. With that in mind, regardless of whether Chase plays (but especially if he doesn’t), Andrei Iosivas is a very intriguing play at a bargain-bin price. He is projected to start in the slot for the Bengals, a role that Tyler Boyd consistently turned into solid fantasy production. Rookie Jermaine Burton could also be an option, especially if Chase sits. As for the Patriots receivers, there’s not much to get excited about. Demario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, K.J. Osborn, and Javon Baker are all cheap, but there’s a real chance that none of them do anything worth writing home about. Even if they do, it’s very difficult to predict which one it will be. 

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry is one of the few Patriots who projects well. The Bengals were very bad against opposing TEs in 2023, and Henry is the only Patriot pass-catcher we know for sure will be on the field consistently. He doesn’t have huge upside, but his nose for the end zone means he could always catch a TD or two. For Cincinnati, Mike Gesicki is cheap against his old team, but it’s hard to see him getting enough volume to help out a lineup. 

Defenses

The Patriots’ defense is not worth considering. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ defense is a very viable pay-up option, as New England’s offense is likely to be truly dreadful. 

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Projected Totals: Texans 25.5, Colts 23.5

This game has a massive projectected total at 49.0, so there are sure to be points scored. The Texans have assembled an incredible trio of receivers for C.J. Stroud, while we have yet to truly see what Shane Steichen has planned for an Anthony Richardson offense. 

Getting at least a piece of this game into your lineup is recommended, as we should see fireworks in Indianapolis. 

Quarterbacks 

C.J. Stroud is more expensive than Anthony Richardson on DraftKings and FanDuel, but Richardson edges Stroud on Yahoo. For my money, Yahoo has it right, as Richardson’s dual-threat ability gives him absurd fantasy potential. He projects to be very popular (over 20% rostered on DraftKings), but his price is so low compared to his potential production that he is worth considering anyway. Of course, Stroud’s own ceiling is sky-high, and both of these QBs can be stacked in multiple ways. 

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor is either the first or second-most expensive RB on every site. That price is a little hard to swallow given this game projects to be a shootout, but his true bell cow status means JT is always an option. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon is projected to be one of the most-rostered running backs on this slate, but for good reason. He is cheaper than Taylor, should also see a workhorse role, and is on what is projected to be the winning side of this matchup. 

Wide Receivers

It’s almost a guarantee that one of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, or Tank Dell has a big game this week (and every week). I’m partial to Collins, but Dell is enticingly cheap on DraftKings, while Diggs could be sneaky as likely the lowest-rostered of the trio. All three can be considered, either on their own or stacked with Stroud. Meanwhile, Michael Pittman Jr. is tempting as the clear top target for the Colts, but his price is high given we have yet to see Richardson truly perform as an NFL passer. Josh Downs has officially been ruled out with his ankle injury, making rookie speedster Adonai Mitchell a tempting cheap dart throw. 

Tight Ends

Neither of these teams has a particularly appealing tight end. Kylen Granson is very cheap, but it’s tough to hit the button on him. Pittman could see shadow coverage though and Richardson, when he throws, has to throw it somewhere. Dalton Schultz is priced too high given that he is competing to be the fourth target in this Texans offense. If he doesn’t score a TD, he is essentially guaranteed to disappoint.  

Defenses

With this game’s high total, it’s best to stay away from the Texans’ defense and the Colts’ defense. If you do want to get cute, the Texans’ defense is talented, and Richardson could certainly make a mistake or two. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins

Projected Totals: Jaguars 23.5, Dolphins 26.5

This Florida matchup should also provide plenty of fantasy points. Depending on where you look, it either stands alone or is tied with the Texans/Colts matchup for the highest total on the slate. The Dolphins individually have the second-highest total of the week, and the Jaguars are projected to keep things close. 

I’m a little suspicious that Trevor Lawrence and Co. will be able to keep pace with this Miami offense, but it’s almost certain that this game will see some big plays and big point totals. 

Quarterbacks 

As pocket passers with high projected totals, both Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence are best played only in stacks. Assuming you do line them up with their favorite pass-catchers, both are worth considering. 

Running Backs

Let’s start with the Jacksonville side, where things are simple: Travis Etienne is essentially always a viable play. He should see a workhorse share of carries, plus some targets, and has multi-touchdown upside. Things are trickier on the Miami side, as we still don’t know how Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane are going to split work in this backfield. Mostert led the way last year, but Achane, coming off the most efficient rookie season of all time, is priced higher on all sites. The sophomore does have slate-breaking potential every week, so he’s certainly viable. But Mostert, at a cheaper price, is more tempting given the real chance he still maintains at least a 50% share of this backfield. 

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill can break any given slate, and is always worth considering. Jaylen Waddle, meanwhile, is set up for a bounceback year and has a week-winning ceiling of his own at a much cheaper price. On the Jaguars’ side of things, Christian Kirk is very cheap for the likely top WR on a team projected for this many points (although it is concerning that he did not play in two-WR sets in the preseason). Both rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and veteran Gabe Davis have big-play potential at cheap prices but come with very low floors. They are best used in a stack with Lawrence and/or in tournament play.

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith is not worth considering given his limited preseason usage. Evan Engram, however, is surprisingly cheap on DraftKings for a player who racked up 143 targets in 2023. His volume at the TE position makes him worth considering even on other sites where his price is higher. 

Defenses

Again, this matchup is setting up to be too high-scoring to put much faith in either the Jaguars’ defense or the Dolphins’ defense.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Projected Totals: Panthers 18.5, Saints 22.5

We exit the land of high-scoring shootouts with this matchup. The Panthers are projected for just 18.5 points, one of the lowest numbers on the slate, but that is still four more points than they averaged in 2023.

The Saints have a more respectable total at 22.5, and their production should be highly concentrated among a few key players, which is always good for fantasy. This will also be our first look at Klint Kubiak’s new offense, which should be a huge improvement from whatever New Orleans was doing last year.

Quarterbacks 

I have hope for Bryce Young to take a step forward in his sophomore season, but he’ll have to show that improvement before he’s worth considering in DFS. Derek Carr is also cheap enough to be tempting but probably still best passed on. 

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara is old, but he’s still going to see plenty of work, especially through the air. He will be heavily rostered in DraftKings’ full PPR format, but he is absolutely worth considering. Chuba Hubbard is also very tempting as a value play. He was quietly very efficient running the ball last year and has minimal competition until rookie Jonathon Brooks returns from the PUP list.

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave should see plenty of volume and is relatively cheap. His teammate Rashid Shaheed is also intriguing, with big-play speed and a very low price. On the Panthers’ side, Diontae Johnson is the wide receiver to consider. He is one of the best route runners in the league, a talent Carolina was sorely lacking in 2023, which should allow him to command a large target share. The question is whether targets from Bryce Young will be worth much. I wouldn’t recommend rostering either veteran Adam Thielen or rookie Xavier Legette until we see some life from this Panthers offense. 

Tight Ends

The Panthers don’t have a single tight end worth mentioning, but the Saints have two. Taysom Hill is the ultimate wild card, but I would rather wait a week to see if he has a role before rostering him in DFS. Juwan Johnson has recovered from a training camp injury and is relatively cheap, but he is still more of a dart-throw bargain option than anything else.   

Defenses

The Saints’ defense is a top pay-up option against this Panthers offense. In fact, the Panthers’ offense is so bad that the Panthers’ defense isn’t a play despite the matchup with a likely mediocre Saints offense.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants

Projected Totals: Vikings 20.5, Giants 20.5

Both of these teams were heavily linked to first-round quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but neither will be rolling one out tonight. That is a large reason for these low totals in what at least projects to be a close matchup. It is worth noting that both of these teams were also bad defensively last year, especially in the secondary, so we could see some surprising fireworks. 

If I had to pick one of these teams to provide a surprising ceiling outcome, it would be Minnesota. Kevin O’Connell got solid production out of worse quarterbacks than Sam Darnold after Kirk Cousins went down last season, and Justin Jefferson is the rare receiver capable of single-handedly carrying an offense. 

Quarterbacks 

Although I just argued in favor of his ability to keep this Vikings offense above water, Sam Darnold still isn’t worth rostering outside of deep large tournaments, even at a minimal price. The same applies to Daniel Jones, who does have some rushing ability but simply isn’t good enough passing the ball to provide much of a floor or ceiling. 

Running Backs

Aaron Jones should see plenty of work both as a rusher and receiver, making him a solid option despite the unexciting environment, especially against a beatable Giants run defense. Devin Singletary on the Giants’ side will also reportedly see a large workload. If this is true, his price is cheap enough to make him a great value play despite his questionable team situation. 

Wide Receivers

Honestly, there are only two receivers worth rostering in this matchup. Jordan Addison has been dealing with an ankle strain, and his rookie year wasn’t convincing enough to expect him to produce in a Sam Darnold-led offense. For the Giants, guys like Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt are cheap, but none of them has anything resembling a floor. That leaves the big two: Justin Jefferson for the Vikings and Malik Nabers for New York. Jefferson is expensive for a player catching passes from Darnold, but we saw him pop off with Nick Mullens last year; he’s always worth considering if you can afford him. Nabers, meanwhile, is temptingly cheap for someone projected to see a potentially absurd target share. He’s absolutely worth playing as a one-off. 

Tight Ends

There aren’t any tight ends to consider in this one. Rookie Theo Johnson for New York has tempting upside, but we have no idea if he will even see the field. Neither Daniel Bellinger nor Johnny Mundt/Robert Tonyan would be more than a dart hoping for a TD. 

Defenses

This is a tough one. Both of these defenses are likely to be somewhere between mediocre and bad, but so are both offenses. With how sack-happy Daniel Jones is, the Vikings’ defense is definitely in play. The Giants’ defense is also an option, but I have more faith in Minnesota’s offense at least looking competent so it’s likely best to stay away. 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

Projected Totals: Raiders 19.5, Chargers 21.5

I’m honestly surprised this game is projected to be so close. The Chargers at home against the Gardner Minshew-led Raiders feel like more than just two-point favorites. Regardless, trusting Vegas is usually a good call when building DFS lineups. That means the Chargers have an okay, not great, total, while the Raiders’ offense is one of the more unappealing units on the slate. 

Quarterbacks 

Gardner Minshew simply doesn’t project well enough to be a DFS play unless you want to get weird in a large tournament. Justin Herbert is very cheap for his level of talent and could be a surprisingly big producer if the Chargers’ offense is more pass-happy than expected under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. He’s worth considering if you want to pay down at QB. 

Running Backs

Zamir White is priced cheap for a player projected to dominate his backfield … but for good reason, given his lack of receiving upside and the Raiders’ low implied total. He doesn’t have the ceiling to be a particularly appealing DFS play. For the Chargers, Gus Edwards is more expensive than J.K. Dobbins on all sites, but recent reports indicate they will be in a 50/50 split. That makes Dobbins an intriguing value play, although his upside is also likely capped by the timeshare with Edwards. Edwards himself does always have a chance to score multiple touchdowns, but he’s only really a dart throw for large-field tournaments.  

Wide Receivers

Even with Minshew under center, Davante Adams’ ability to rack up targets always makes him a potential DFS option. He’s not a sexy option at all, but Jakobi Meyers could also see solid volume and is pretty cheap. Speaking of affordable volume plays, Joshua Palmer stands out as the Chargers’ likely top receiver at a very low price. I would stay away from rookie Ladd McConkey and sophomore Quentin Johnston until we see their roles in this offense.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers is tempting at a solid price in his NFL debut; he’s one of the best receiving TE prospects we’ve seen in years. I’m not touching Will Dissly or any other TE for the Chargers.

Defenses

The Chargers’ defense is absolutely in play with the Raiders’ low total and Minshew under center. You could make an argument for the Raiders’ defense as well, but I’m scarred enough of Harbaugh and Herbert to avoid Maxx Crosby and Co. 

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected Totals: Broncos 17.5, Seahawks 23.5

My first thought upon seeing this matchup was that this was the Russell Wilson Bowl, but Danger-Russ will not be suiting up for either team in this one. Instead, we get Bo Nix’s NFL debut for the Broncos and Geno Smith’s first game under new OC Ryan Grubb.

The Broncos’ offense is projected to struggle in Nix’s first NFL game, while the Seahawks have a solid total as one of the biggest favorites on the slate.

Quarterbacks 

The only reason to consider Bo Nix is that he is at an absolutely minimal price. Even still, I wouldn’t touch him in his NFL debut. On the other hand, I’m very intrigued by Geno Smith, whose price isn’t that much higher. He has quietly been a top-10 QB in the NFL by pretty much every advanced metric in both of the last two years, although his fantasy performance last year left a lot to be desired. If Seattle’s new coaches let him cook, Smith and a full Seahawks stack could win tournaments this Sunday. 

Running Backs

For the Broncos, both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are enticingly cheap. McLaughlin is mostly a tournament dart throw hoping for a big play, but Williams is viable in all formats. On the Seattle side, Kenneth Walker III is also interesting. Zach Charbonnet isn’t priced much lower, but all the noise out of Seahawks camp is that Walker will be a three-down workhorse. With elite big-play ability and a solid volume floor in a positive game script, Walker is absolutely in play.

Wide Receivers

For Denver, Courtland Sutton is the only receiver with enough projectable volume to be interesting … and even he isn’t particularly exciting. For Seattle, D.K. Metcalf is always in play, especially if you’re rostering Geno, and is cheap enough to be an option regardless. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also temptingly cheap for his first game in what many are projecting to be a breakout season, but exercise caution. The last time we saw Seattle, JSN was clearly the WR3 behind Tyler Lockett. I will probably avoid both the sophomore and the veteran them for this first week until we see who is the team’s WR2. 

Tight Ends

I’m not touching any of these tight ends. Things could change under Grubb, but Noah Fant has never seen enough volume in this offense to be viable. For the Broncos, Greg Dulcich is cheap, but his preseason usage was not at all encouraging.

Defenses

In line with my prediction that the Seahawks could have a big game, I’m avoiding the Broncos’ defense. However, the Seahawks’ defense is absolutely in play against a rookie making his debut on an offense that was rough last year.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

Projected Totals: Cowboys 19.5, Browns 21.5

This is another one where Vegas’ projection is surprising. Even though the Browns’ defense is an elite unit, I would have projected the Cowboys for at least 20 points; they averaged nearly 30 points per game last season.

The Browns, meanwhile, have yet to be anything better than mediocre offensively in the Deshaun Watson era. Their total is surprisingly high against a talented Cowboys defense.

Quarterbacks 

Karma might be real, as Deshaun Watson has been awful since joining the Browns on a record-breaking contract. He’s not worth considering. Dak Prescott was very productive last season, but this matchup will be tough, and his price is high. He’s not a top play unless you’re committing to a Cowboys stack.  

Running Backs

Jerome Ford is in line to see plenty of volume, and his price is very low. He is a good, if chalky, value play. Things are trickier in the Cowboys’ backfield. Rico Dowdle has been getting steam recently, but Ezekiel Elliott could dominate all-important receiving and goal-line touches. With that said, Dowdle is so cheap, especially on DraftKings, that it’s very tempting to take the risk and slot him into lineups. Zeke is also an option, but his higher price and potentially smaller role make him less appealing.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb is one of the best receivers in the league and always worth considering. However, I’m not sure he’s quite worth paying an absolute top price for in this matchup unless you’re buying in on the Cowboys and stacking him with Dak. I’m also avoiding Dallas’ other receivers, even though Jalen Tolbert is temptingly cheap. For the Browns, Amari Cooper is always a solid volume play, and we know he has week-winning upside. Again, secondary pieces (Jerry Jeudy and Eliah Moore) aren’t very appealing.

Tight Ends

This game has not one but two solid mid-range tight ends. Both David Njoku and Jake Ferguson provided solid production last year and should do so again this season. Between the two, Njoku is a bit more appealing in DraftKings’ full-PPR format, while Ferguson always has two-TD upside. 

Defenses

Honestly, I don’t hate either of these defenses. As mentioned, the Browns’ defense is one of the best in the league and could put up points even in a tough matchup (their price is also very acceptable). The Cowboys’ defense is more expensive (although cheaper on FanDuel than other sites), but we know they can rack up points fast. 

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Totals: Commanders 19.5, Buccaneers 23.5

We have yet another rookie quarterback making their debut in this one, as second-overall pick Jayden Daniels will start for the Commanders. It’s also worth noting that this will be the Commanders’ first game under OC Kliff Kingsbury, who ran a blisteringly fast offense during his time in Arizona. If that continues, this could be a surprisingly fertile fantasy matchup.

On the Buccaneers’ side, Baker Mayfield and Co. have a very respectable total against a very beatable Washington defense.  

Quarterbacks 

Jayden Daniels is an unproven rookie, but any dual-threat quarterback with a price this low is worth considering. Given that, if he hits, it will likely be on the ground, you can even play him as a one-off without any other Commanders. Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, is a classic pocket passer who is best stacked with at least one of his teammates. Luckily, that’s a very viable choice in this high-paced low-defense environment.

Running Backs

Honestly, neither Brian Robinson nor Austin Ekeler is particularly appealing. It seems as though Ekeler will dominate receiving work while Robinson sees early-down and goal-line touches, meaning neither has much of a ceiling given the Commanders’ low total. Rachaad White’s price is low for the extent to which he dominated the Buccaneers’ backfield last year. However, White was also very inefficient, and the Buccaneers’ new coaching staff have indicated they may use more of a committee. He’s not completely un-rosterable, but he has more risk than you might expect. 

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans is always a threat to record two TDs and 100+ yards, and that means he is always a DFS option. Especially in this exciting Kingsbury-modified environment, he’s worth playing, either with Baker or on his own. Chris Godwin is also intriguing, especially with recent reports that he will be playing more in the slot this season. His price is also much cheaper than Evans’, making him a great one-off if you simply want a piece of this game. Terry McLaurin is also cheap for being the only clear target on this Commanders’ offense. However, he will be heavily rostered, and his fit in this Kingsbury/Daniels offense isn’t great. He might see enough volume to return value regardless, but fading could end up being a sneakily smart play. Rookie Luke McCaffrey is a potential cheap volume play as he will start in the slot in his NFL debut. 

Tight Ends

They are both cheap, but it’s hard to project enough volume for Zach Ertz or Cade Otton to feel comfortable rostering one. Of the two, Ertz is more tempting as he is very cheap and could be the second target on this Commanders offense behind McLaurin.

Defenses

I’m not touching the Commanders’ defense; they’re cheap for a good reason and project to be surprisingly heavily rostered. However, the Buccaneers’ defense is a solid pay-up option. Sure, Kingsbury’s offense is fast, but that just means more plays for Jayden Daniels to take sacks or make rookie mistakes. 

Lineups

FanDuel

Note: FanDuel added yardage bonuses this year. Seems to be with the intent of leveling the playing field a bit at QB as we’ve seen running QBs dominate contests in the past few years. We benefited from those Justin Fields glory weeks, but we’ll adjust and eventually salaries will adjust as well.

Here’s the full article on it and here are their takeaways from the article:

• Pocket passers are now more interesting, especially when they are in good matchups with yardage potential.
• For the most part, running backs still need a huge workload to hit the bonus, and because that’s generally who we are targeting at the position anyway, it doesn’t change things too much.
• At WR, 100-yard games are generally coming from the studs, but the yardage bonus will help level out a big game without TDs.
• Tight ends rarely eclipse 100 receiving yards, and non-elite TEs almost never do it.
• Stacking a 300-yard passer and 100-yard receiver will net 6.0 extra FanDuel points now, and there’s a strong relationship between those two occurrences. (Note: We heavily stack our lineups here already, but this makes it even more important.)
• While 100-yard rushers and 100-yard receivers can still hit for the same offense, we should be mindful of stacking teammates if seeking to maximize the bonus potential. (Note: we typically shy away from this except in games we expect to shootout; it then becomes more viable for a QB + RB + WR stack to hit.)

Cash Game

The Falcons’ defense will be huge chalk, but they are simply too cheap against the Steelers. However, I still like Freiermuth from Pittsburgh as a pay-down TE option with a hopefully solid floor (no huge value on Pitts here). James Conner is also way too cheap, especially in a Half-PPR format that favors him. With three WR slots, I like having at least one of the Texans receivers, probably Collins. We can then chuck in Mostert and Kirk as cheap-ish ways into that tantalizing Florida matchup. That leaves plenty of salary to pick two elite options with your final WR and flex spots. 

Tournament

I generally start my lineup process on FD each week, then move to DK and Yahoo. I started building this lineup two weeks ago and my thoughts haven’t changed much. I’m eating WR chalk but loading up on low-owned players elsewhere. Week 1 pricing is always a little softer so it’s easy to fit studs in and while the WRs are chalk, they’re not prohibitive 40%+ chalk. And, as always, we care more about the total ownership percentage of our lineup overall, so we’ll have enough low-owned individual players that we’re still unique.

I found the games I liked best – LAR @ DET, HOU @ IND, and JAC @ MIA and built from there. Kupp, St. Brown, Hill, Thomas Jr at WR and FLEX. From there, I added Stafford. I initially wanted to go with Goff, but like above, I think Stafford gets the yardage (and new bonus) playing from behind and the Rams have the more questionable backfield right now. You can easily drop from St. Brown to Jameson Williams and swap to Goff if you prefer. I like Mixon who isn’t as popular as I expected him to be. I think he fits the scheme well and is good leverage off the popular Texans’ WRs. Although I should note that Collins is chalk, and Diggs is nearing 10%, but Dell seems very low owned. I also like Singletary in a volume role playing with Daboll again. He’s had some big weeks but has tended to let us down more often than not, perfect tourney option with the uncertainty of week one. I’m playing around with TE and DEF still but plenty of options, especially if you mix and match some of the alternative stacks above. I do love stacking my RB and DEF so looking at the Giants in what could be a disappointing week one for the Vikings.

DraftKings

Cash Game

I’m locking in Pitts, then building either a Seattle (Geno/Metcalf) or Arizona (Kyler/Harrison Jr.) stack. We also probably want at least one piece of the Miami/Jacksonville game, and Jaylen Waddle is my favorite option. With Higgins (and potentially Chase) out, Iosivas for value just makes too much sense. That leaves enough to pay up at defense with either the Bengals or Saints and still have enough budget to add quality options throughout the rest of the lineup.

Tournament

Because I start with FD, I tend to use DK as a hedge. If you only play DK, feel free to adjust this thinking and stick more your own favorite stacks from this article.

Starting with Jefferson (and fading Hill) here and stacking with Nabers instead of Singletary. I’ll add Darnold (might just be me and his mom starting him) for now but I don’t mind adding the QB of any of the following WRs that are also making it into my lineup: Godwin and Diontae Johnson. Volume is king on DK but I’m going to fade Iosivas in tournaments. I’ve seen too many times the old Tyler Boyd trick where he’s great when thrust into a number-two role, but not as the one. Iosivas, in a low-scoring game, might get too much attention from the defense for him to hit the ceiling we want, especially with soft week one pricing. That said, if you can jam in a ton of other studs, feel free to add him for the savings. Lamb isn’t seeing huge ownership projections yet, so it’s not as much leverage as I wanted, but still like Ferguson at TE here. I’ll add Ford to the other side to complete the mini-stack. Still working on DEF and the second RB, but plenty of options especially if you decide to add Iosivas who, for what it’s worth, isn’t projecting to have the massive prohibitive ownership percentage that I thought he would – I expect that to climb as people react to the news though.

Yahoo

Cash Game

Let’s head straight back to the Cincinnati WR well with Iosivas, who just makes building lineups easy. We can use that value to stack Tua with Tyreek, with Etienne heading back the other way. As with FanDuel, the Falcons are again simply too cheap, so that’s an easy pick. Let’s get weird with Luke McCaffrey (Christian’s brother), allowing us to pay up for another elite player in Bijan Robinson. That still leaves enough money for a mid-range TE and a solid FLEX.

Tournament

I’m going to build this “live” and talk through my process. Yahoo pricing always has some weird anomalies, where DK and FD are usually more in line so I generally start by trying to identify those value spots. One example is Mayfield being priced the same as Darnold here, making Darnold a much less attractive flier here versus our DK lineup. Geno stands out here, so I’ll start there. I’ll add Smith-Njigba for now at the same price as Lockett, but with Lockett banged up I’ll take a chance on an improved JSN. I’ll add Iosivas at near-min pricing. Now I’ll move to RBs and see the value there before filling out the rest of my roster, always wanting to target mini-stacks. Ford stands out as cheap for his role, especially against the weaker part of the Dallas DEF. Tempted to use my savings to add Lamb, but will stick to Ferguson at TE for now. In a few minutes, I may find myself with too much money left and make some adjustments. But I know I can be pretty aggressive on my remaining picks with $102 left for four spots. I’ll add Waddle who is a nice discount from Hill and a hedge of my FD lineup. I want to target Evans here as a hedge against my earlier Godwin pick, but he’s not in a mini-stack, so I’ll swap in Diontae for Waddle. I’m paying up some for Evans, but I like the look of this mini-stack better than Waddle alone. I’ll add Atlanta DEF with the news of Fields starting (not that Wilson was much better). And, as predicted, I had a little extra money so I moved up from JSN to Metcalf hoping he doesn’t get shadowed or at least beats some aggressive defense for a couple scores.