The Chalk Board | DFS Ownership Pivot Guide

Looking ahead to the main slate a little early for week 1 but let’s get into the right mindset right away. DFS is about avoiding the bad chalk but more importantly it’s finding pivots to where the field is going with similar upside.

Quarterbacks
Josh Allen is leading the way in early simulations but at less than half current ownership projection we have Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray both ready to prove they are back from injury riddled seasons and ready to be DFS gold again. Allen looks like good chalk to me for now with his target tree up in the air you can mix and match options with Diggs and Davis out of town and Kincaid projected to be a target hog. Easy fades for me will include C.J. Stroud and Tua Tagovailoa as they don’t stand out in projected scoring and don’t offer low enough ownership to ignore price savings of other QBs. I’ll have to update my thoughts as we get closer but it’s hard to ignore builds starting with Dak Prescott / CeeDee Lamb / Jake Ferguson in an offense with questions in their running game against a seriously stout run defenses and one of the easiest target trees out there as Lamb could set the NFL record in targets this year. We talk a lot about elite QB’s making receivers better, don’t sleep on an elite WR in Justin Jefferson making his QB’s numbers better. Jefferson averaged nearly 10 targets a game and 100+ yards a game with the career backups his last 4 games. Sam Darnold got a year with Kyle Shanahan and is perhaps more talented than he’s had the chance to show and definitely younger than you think he is for how long he has been around the league. He may be the lowest owned arm on the slate at bare bottom pricing. I can’t leave out a real talent that was overshadowed by the Caleb Williams draft spectacul. Jayden Daniels is a true dual threat with an elite receiver in Terry McLauren and key veteran adds in Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz to help move the ball downfield. Perhaps the most overlooked stack of the week.

Good Chalk – Josh Allen
Pivot Plays – Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott
Value Plays – Jayden Daniels
Tipsy Pick – Sam Darnold

Bad Chalk – C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa
Overvalued – Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield

Running Backs
At the moment my simulations are spitting out a ton of Joe Mixon and De’Von Achane, I don’t actually mind either one considering their price per point projection but in the spirit of this article looking at Pivots. Bijan Robinson is the cut above the rest in talent and matchup this week but at this moment isn’t even top 10 in ownership. This may be one of the only weeks this year he isn’t $8,000 or more if he lives up to all the pundit love this off season. I’m looking for runners that have the backfield mostly too themselves and going over looked. That checks the boxes of several value guys week one like Chubba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson, Aaron Jones and James Conner. I’m also looking for under-owned backs that have shown flashes and will get opportunities like Najee Harris, Devin Singletary, and Javonte Williams. 

Pay Up – Bijan Robinson
Pivot Plays – Aaron Jones, James Conner, Rachaad White
Value Plays – Chubba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson
Undervalued – Najee Harris, Devin Singletary
Tipsy Pick – Javonte Williams

Chalk that can be avoided – Joe Mixon, De’Von Achane
Overvalued – Zamir White, Zach Moss, Raheem Mostert

Wide Receivers
Big names will almost always lead ownership and in my experience nailing a pivot in the WR ranks can set you apart. Stacking still is smart but I have seen a rise in non-traditional stacks like pairing Josh Allen with James Cook or a Jalen Hurts with Goedert and just avoiding choosing between Brown and Smith. I am more inclined to avoid ownership here than other positions. Hill leads the way, and rightfully so with his potential to break almost any slate. I like him as long as he remains below 20% ownership. The issue is with the first few weeks comes a lot of casual bettors that will gravitate towards the Lamb, Hill, Jefferson, Chase names and I would like to be where that public money is not. Initially it looks like Lamb will be the pay up I want out of the elite names. From there I will of course look for target hogs that might pair with the QB I chose but my focus will be guys that have shown big games in the past that are with a new QB or team that might go overlooked. Diontae Johnson and Thielen are intriguing as a VERY low owned stacked with Young. Courtland Sutton now without Russ or Jeudy is interesting as I find rookie QBs like to focus in on a favorite target. Overlooked #1 receivers like Pickens, and Drake London both with New QBs and play callers stand out as well.

Pay Up – CeeDee Lamb
Pivot Plays – DaVante Adams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Courtland Sutton
Value Plays – Drake London, Christian Kirk, Demario Douglas
Under Priced – Malik Nabers, Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen
Tipsy Picks – Ja’Lynn Polk

Overvalued – All Bears WR, All Texans WR

Tight Ends
Ownership is centered on Kincaid and that should surprise absolutely no one. No Diggs, no Gabe, and no one proven to step in yet. Like I said above I really like Allen, but I’m playing him solo or pairing with James Cook and avoiding the chalkiest pairing of the week. Pivoting up sometimes makes a ton of sense as is this case. Trey McBride is $300 more, projected at 18% more points and only the 10th highest owned tight end as of this moment. Schultz is the next highest owned but there are too many mouths to feed there, same with Kmet, Smith, Njoku, Otton… I am going all the way to the top with McBride, sliding down a bit to Ferguson that should be target #2 all year in Dallas and if I need to save money going to Theo Johnson and punting TE.

Pay Up – Trey McBride
Pivot Plays – Jake Ferguson, Kyle Pitts, Brock Bowers, Pat Freiermuth
Value Play – Zach Ertz, MIke Gesicki
Tipsy Pick – Theo Johnson
Overvalued – Dalton Kincaid, Dalton Schultz, David Njoku, Cole Kmet

Defense
I’m trying to usually not pay up and avoid the most popular option. It’s all about sacks and facing rookie or career backup QBs for the most part.
I’m probably sticking with the Giants, Bears or Vikings, but I will let salary remaining be my biggest factor in week 1 until we see how the units all play together.

Cheers!