Super Showdown

Showdown lineups are all about correlation. Make a narrative of how the game will go and make a lineup to feed that script. Sure there are the random TD’s from 3rd string TE’s and Fullbacks that screw it all up but in general you want to keep PUNT or UNLIKELY plays to zero or a bare minimum. If you want to throw all the punts in then the GIANT GPP’s that let you throw 100-150 entries in is for you. I much prefer my showdowns to be entered into single entry, 50/50 contests and I want to pay up to be in the smallest contest I can afford.

Let’s look at these two teams and make a couple different builds based on seasonal performances as the example.

San Fran in wins averaged 33 points per game and won by an average of 17 points. In losses they averaged 18 points per game but on lost by an average of 7 points. They played 2 close playoff games but all season they either dominate the game, or lose. They don’t play well in tight games or from behind, normally. If you are taking SF to win then the most likely scenario would be over the 47.5 points O/U and by 6.5+ points.

The example above means CMC goes wild, one of the 3 of Aiyuk, Deebo, or Kittle go with him and Purdy doesn’t turn the ball over. It means KC pushes the pace most likely to keep SF’s foot on the gas and means pairing up with Rice or Kelce or simply playing Mahomes and Butker in the mix.

Kansas City has been a much more gritty team that grinds out wins this year. In their wins they averaged 24 points and winning by just under 10. In losses the produced an average of 16 points and lost by only 6. If you feel this is a KC win, then the data suggest they win by defense and keeping it close, so you build a team under assumptions that the game goes under the 47.5 and that they win by 5 or less.

This example means the Niners get caught making mistakes, CMC stays in check and KC plays ball control. Here is where I could fade CMC, I would focus on Kelce, Mahomes and Pacheco and could get KC Defense in the mix. Maybe this outcome comes from SF not converting redzone trips to TDs so Moody becomes intriguing. If SF is frustrated on the ground here is where Deebo get’s more involved.

Player Thoughts

Christian McCaffrey
Congrats, they finally did it. McCaffrey is finally priced enough beyond the field that his leverage is almost even for price point vs points per salary. He should run 50%+ owned in Flex Spots and hit 12-15% as the most popular CPT in large GPPs. There is no single player in any game in the last few years that can dominate the stat board like McCaffrey. I will be well over the field as always in both spots, but he does not have to be a 100% lock as he as been all year.

Travis Kelce
I think he could go as high as 40% or more in larger contests and I’ll be honest, he is probably my favorite fade of the big names. Fade might not be the right word, but I know I will be under the 38% ownership projection on him. The Niners are very good in the linebacker department and they cover well. I really like Pacheco in part because I think they will shift coverage to try to take away Kelce and leave that mid field open after the front 4 for some chunk runs. If you are on KC win and an Over bet on the total then he is essential. Play out all the ways CMC, Deebo, Purdy, Mahomes, Rice fail, and it’s easy to find many pathways to Kelce disappointing from his expected output over the other guys.

Brock Purdy
I firmly am in the camp of Purdy as a future elite QB candidate, but the key to this game for the Niners will be riding CMC to 150+ all purpose yards and controlling the tempo with creative drives. He and Mahomes predict out to score about the exact same amount and he will give you less ownership for a few hundred less. I am mostly off both QB’s as I dig the run games on both sides. I will be under the 33%

Patrick Mahomes
What San Francisco struggles the most with is sustained coverage. Lamar Jackson put a hurt on them by extending plays and buying time for scramble drills to get his WRs open. Mahomes is very good at this as well. If he regularly gets outside of the box and causes the weakside of the SF defense to try to maintain coverage he will have a good day. As stated above. I like fading Kelce in favor of Mahomes to go with my Niners heavy stacks.

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If I am stacking Chiefs, I want Mahomes, Pacheco, Rice, Butker more often that Kelce, and I could even drop in KC Defense in the mix.

49ers stacks go with CMC, Purdy and Deebo as the core with Aiyuk and Moody rounding it out.

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CPT Considerations
Christian McCaffery
George Kittle
Rashee Rice
Harrison Butker

Flex Core
Isiah Pacheco
Patrick Mahomes
Brock Purdy
Travis Kelce
Deebo Samuel
Brandon Aiyuk
Jake Moody
KC Defense

Risk/Reward
49ers Defense
Noah Gray
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Elijah Mitchell
Justin Watson

Punt Plays
Kyle Juszczyk
Richie James Jr
Jerick McKinnon (if activated)
Mecole Hardman Jr

Fades
Jauan Jennings
Clyde Edwards-Helaire