Chalk Board | Ownership Pivots

Looking through the main slate chalk and deciding where to pivot when necessary is key to hitting it big in GPP’s. Let’s look through who is projected to be the highest owned at each position. 

Quarterbacks
With so many backups playing, the ownership has really spread out and only 2 guys stand out at the top; Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts. I really can’t find a reason to fade either other than the chance San Francisco goes up 38-3 by half time and the rest Purdy the remainder of the game, but even if that happens he should be plenty involved in that scoring. Hurts is a lock button for the best odds to finish as the top scoring quarterback on the day, but good matchups for Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, C.J.Stroud, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, heck even Derek Carr, make this slate one of the most wide open selections we have seen all year. I honestly don’t think QB is the main concern this week.

Simulations are showing Brock Purdy as the most common play in winning lineups, which makes sense in a great matchup, in a bounce back spot and at a grand or more less in salary than the only 2 other guys projected to score more points than him. I am eating that chalk.

On FanDuel, Purdy is less of a discount in price but also well below the top options at the position for quarterback as they favor the guys most likely to run one in themselves. I am still on him but I almost always look for the rushing upside. Climb on board the chalk trains driven by Jalen Hurts and Lamar and don’t look back on FanDuel.

Running Backs
How many times have I written about Christian McCaffery being the highest owned, most expensive, but absolutely still the most positive leverage on the board? Oh, probably just every single time he’s on the main slate. Load him up again. Just do it. Do I really have to go over it for the 15th time? If you are not going to the tippy top, it’s an easy pivot. I don’t know what it is, whether it is love for CMC like I have, being all in on the 5k guys like Zamir White, or simply not looking at the game, but Kyren Williams should have more love than CMC and be an absolute lock in my book if he really is coming in at under 10% owned. I have been behind both Zeke and Javonte Williams this year but history has told me when these guys are chalk, you simply walk away. In that range I much prefer Zamir White (projections haven’t caught up yet, i can’t imagine him being 1% owned) even if he ends up being chalky, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Walker and James Conner all intrigue me more in those price ranges. Achane without Mostert is very tempting and my simulations point to CMC, Zamir White and De’Von Achane as the 3 guys most likely to pop up in winning lineups.

On FanDuel Walker, Zeke, Rachaad White, and James Cook all pop up higher owned than CMC and the rest and really point me to pay up if possible to the top, though CMC is nearly untouchable at $11k salary.

Wide Receivers
There is a gross amount of love on DeAndre Hopkins again this week and we all know what to do when that happens, hard pass. Chris Olave comes in at #2 and I am all for that good chalk. Pairing him up with Derek Carr is a nice cheap way to start your DraftKings builds. I’m not into Terry McLaurin as much as the field and will go again to Curtis Samuel in that game if I want some action there, but the Niners are out for blood and I don’t want to be in their way. If you want a week to play Tyreek Hill at sub 10% owned this might be your chance. A daunting matchup, a high asking price, and in a game that they are predicted to lose all make for the perfect storm to pay up here if you didn’t for your running backs. I’m not sure I have seen ceiling projections hit nearly 40 all year. Risk/Reward is the name of the game here and without Waddle we might get a shot at 15-18 targets. I will be fading the chalk on Meyers and Ridley but I am in on it for Rashee Rice and Nico Collins. I want the redo on my Justin Fields to DJ Moore stacks and the absolute disrespect Mike Evans always gets on DraftKings is crazy and I will be over the field on shares. Simulations are pointing to Hill, Moore, Rice, Olave and Aiyuk as the guys most likely to be in winning lineups this week.

For FanDuel it looks to be incredibly focused on Davante Adams and  A.J. Brown and I am here for that in seasonal, but DFS I think I can fade that, because I like too many high priced running backs. I like all the same plays as I did above but I am elevating Deebo Samuel into a must play for his running upside and I see the 49ers going back to getting him creatively involved today.

Tight Ends
Chalk Chig is never the play for me. Okonkwo has been a bit more consistent, and I don’t have the salary to truly fade him in all of my builds thus far, but there are pivots. Gerald Everett is in a good spot at a hundred dollar discount with higher projections. If it’s not Everett or Chig, you can save a few more bucks and take Cade Otton, but my favorite guys of the week are chalky in George Kittle and Trey McBride if you can afford them with a shout out to Evan Engram are a similar projection but lessor owned option in the high 5k range.

Geroge Kittle’s ownership on FanDuel is just over my threshold when I have solid options in McBride and Engram right next to him. I feel a Kelce week coming but I just don’t have the cap space for him in any of the builds so far.

Defense
The Indianapolis Colts appear to be the defensive darlings today and I have zero interest. I am locked into the Broncos today and if I want to go off the beaten path the Ravens continue to be the highest scoring Defense on the year and well underpriced in a game that Tua can make mistakes in and will be missing Mostert and Waddle…

Cheers!