Chalk Board | Ownership Pivots
Only a few more weeks for full slate shots at a million and I can’t think of any better way than to go get the best stocking stuffer of them all; 10,000 Benjamins.
QB
Nick Mullens, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Fields are all coming in at over 15% projected ownership in the large GPP contests. I Love Mullens in seasonal and certainly in DFS as his deep discounted price allows some nice builds, but I am not sure I LOVE him as the highest owned option. I won’t be fading him but I will be looking at pivots for sure. Baker seems like point chasing and while he isn’t a complete fade either, I will certainly be under the field on him. Justin Fields is my pick for breaking the slate this week so I will be well over exposed to him compared to the field. He has 2 air and 2 rushing touchdowns upside and is one of the few on the board that can truly get a 40 point game if it all lines up.
The interesting pivot is Joe Flacco. Simulations have him as hands down leader in optimal lineups and what’s more the #2 player in optimals is Amari Cooper and #3 is David Njoku… the algorithms are begging us to play that stack and I will oblige. Sneaky under-owned plays I like are Jordan Love and Jerad Goff. Love faces a Carolina Defense that has been very stingy through the air but can give ground in the run game. With Dillon looking doubtful, Aaron Jones seemingly not up to his old self and slop for depth, we might see some designed QB runs more often and in the red zone. Goff had a HUGE game last week and seems to be getting overlooked again. Vikings Defense has been good of late and it’s not my favorite matchup, but if I am gonna get him at 3.5% owned, he has the weapons to give us what we need.
On FanDuel, I am avoiding the Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith chalk and sliding in Justin Fields, Jordan Love, or Nick Mullens depending on salary needs.
RB
Ty Chandler and Breece Hall are getting 30%+ love in projections so far and I have to say I am out on both. Hard pass on Ty because I refuse to point chase. Minnesota still is still 25th in rush attempts on the year, the Lions are the #1 defense against running back fantasy points, and this game features one of the highest totals of the week suggesting air attacks from both sides. Hall is mostly an ownership fade. I do like his spot but you can get more value in Chuba Hubbard against a Green Bay Defense severely depleted and on a team that will likely hand him the ball another 25 times as per usual. You can also move slightly up to Bijan Robinson that I am giving yet another shot too besides that sick feeling I get in my stomach each time I click his name. We then have Jonathan Taylor, Rachaad White, and Aaron Jones all coming in at above 20%. Taylor is a hard pass for me against a team that has yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a running back on the year. I think White continues to be good chalk, but expensive and Aaron Jones is hard to trust but that matchup is choice, so I do not mind mixing either in sparingly. Other guys I like that are being overlooked are both Miami backs in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane along with Travis Etienne if you are looking to pivot up and don’t sleep on James Conner as he continues to quietly put up stats when healthy.
With Fanduel there are 5 players that make up the chalk, Aaron Jones, Tony Polland, Kenneth Walker, Ty Chandler, and Rachaad White. I am off Ty and Walker and will play sparingly the other three. Bijan, Hubbard, Singletary and both Miami backs remain my favorite pivots.
WR
Deandre Hopkins is the top projected ownership play at WR and I just don’t get it… He literally only get’s open but shoving and dragging. I don’t mind him on ugly slates at value pricing but it’s a complete no for me this week. The rest are all fine chalk in their own rite. Jefferson is a stud in a game I like him to be on the winning side of… however, $100 more and you can pivot to St. Brown who I have projected for almost 10% more points at 50% less ownership. DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf are all core plays for me this week and I’m eating that chalk. Lockett is in play and so is JSN as a pivot off the top options. Ceedee Lamb is intriguing as a top end pivot and I’m not sleeping on Waddle keeping a big bigger of a roll this week.
FanDuel sees Calvin Ridley go crazy over owned. His value really takes a hit in big GPPs at 30%+ owned and there are simply too many scenarios that come out badly for him to buy in at that exposure. My thoughts on the rest stay mostly the same as above.
TE
Njoku is a tad higher than I like but not enough to put me off him as expressed in the QB section. Kraft, McBride and Engram round out the players with over 10% ownership but only Kraft is a fade for me. In Fact those three are my core plays, paying up for Hock or LaPorta on occasion and going value at Conklin, Otton, or Thomas when needed.
I lean McBride over Njoku on FanDuel but my decisions are the same as DraftKings.
Defense
I’m basically rollin’ with the Jets. It’s a crapshoot week.