Christmas Eve Eve 2-Gamer

Fantasy takes no holidays and I will have you covered on short slates Saturday and Monday and pivot plays for Sunday as always! 

Saturday we get perhaps the largest spread of the year in the 12.5 point favorites Bills over the Chargers. No Herbert, no Allen, and an Ekeler that seems to have simply given up on the year and is looking to not get hurt before he can find a new team in ’24.

The other side we get a gritty AFC North rivalry game with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati trying to keep pace for a wildcard berth. Mason Rudulph takes the reins for the Steelers in a spot that looks like it might be one of the lowest scoring games of the week. 

QB
The only real option is Josh Allen, don’t kid yourself, he not only has the best team, the highest implied score, but also the best leverage because he should be 100% owned but you know he won’t be. Yes, he threw for under 100 yards last week, yes they dominated on the ground. Both of these reasons along with the gamblers need to go against the crowd will lead to less exposure than he would have normally.

RB
I don’t see a way to get off James Cook, lock him in as necessary chalk. As stated above I don’t believe Ekeler is giving maximum effort. I am avoiding him. I do like Mixon, but we can’t take all the high priced guys and Chase Brown has been involved plenty enough for an under 5k play! He only saw 3 less touches than Mixon last week and has had 3 effective targets in the passing game in each of the last two weeks. I like Cincinnati to come in and get this win with plenty of garbage time. If you’re deciding between Warren and Harris I continue to lean Warren. This should be the right game script for plenty of dump off  passes from a bad QB in a game played from behind. $300 more is worth the nearly 40% higher upside I have Warren projected for over Harris. If you want that punt play Ty Johnson has blowout garbage time written all over him.

My thoughts remain the same on Fanduel as above.

WR
Allen is out so big ownership heading to Stefon Diggs and it’s more BUF chalk to just eat. the only other guy with projection close is Tee Higgins but I will be under the field as he should see a healthy dose of Joey Porter and I don’t like that matchup. I am more interested in Joe Mixon or Chase Brown, Tyler Boyd and Tanner Hudson, so I will likely fully fade Higgins. Gabe is fine at his price point for when he hits his ceiling. I don’t think it’s this week but there are worse plays. I really can’t touch any Pittsburgh  wideout, unless you need a complete punt in Calvin Austin. Joshua Palmer will skyrocket in ownership without Allen and thanks to his big game last week but that is another straight fade for me, purely as an ownership pivot. I would take a shot at an under owned Quentin Johnston instead at 4k 

Fanduel projections fall sharply after Diggs, Higgins and Palmer and ownership should be really spread out under those three. Gabe Davis, Boyd and Diontae Johnson seem a bit more palatable in the half PPR.

TE
All 4 main options are perfectly fine and I think ownership splits fairly evenly. No one wants to hear it but I am all over taking the shot on Kincaid again if my budget allows. However, that punt play to Knox is really attractive at under 3k! I’ll mostly be playing Hudson and Freiermuth in my own lineups.

Defense
Bills or Bengals are all I’m playing! 

Go get those green screens!