Start/Sit Hub Week 16
Happy Thursday and welcome back to my weekly Start/Sit HUB! Mike here, providing you with information that can help you win your fantasy league week in and week out. For all things fantasy football, follow me on Twitter (@FantasyHubbard).
It’s Week 16 and many of you are prepping your lineups for a fantasy playoff game. Everything is at stake and the title of Fantasy champ is right there ready to be taken. If you have been eliminated in your league or didn’t make the playoffs don’t be hard on yourself, football can be crazy unpredictable, and injuries can be detrimental. Keep fighting. We get a TNF matchup between the Saints and the Rams. Rams are the home team playing in LA and both sides are fighting for their 8th win after both starting 7-7. Rams are currently favored by 4 with an over/under of 46.5. Olave is expected to return for the Saints which is huge news because he is a stellar weapon that can make any play explosive. Olave and Kamara are going to have to play very well to keep up with Stafford and the Rams. Stafford has been playing great lately and this is another great spot to continue to do so. My predictions is a 24-20 win for LA.
I’m here every week during the fantasy football season and playoffs with start and sit suggestions that can impact your team each week. My decisions as always include obvious and not so obvious picks. I would also like to clarify that my sit suggestions are based on the assumption you have or can add a player that has a better chance at success. Good luck this week and continue to check out my weekly articles.
TNF START/SIT
Saints @ Rams
Start – Cooper Kupp – Cooper Kupp is coming off a great game where he and Puka Nacua both led the team with 8 targets a piece. Kupp caught all 8 targets and finished with 111 receiving yards and a TD. Kupp and Matthew Stafford’s chemistry was on full display and they both complement each other during this hot streak winning 4 of their last 5. Kupp has the usually dominant Saints defense to look forward to, but they haven’t appeared too dominant lately. Kupp has back-to-back 100+ yard receiving games, 4 of those altogether this season, and he has a TD reception in each of his last 3 games played. I like Kupp and Stafford a lot this week.
Sit – Taysom Hill – It’s never easy benching a player you not only appreciate but shas a real boom possibility any game. Hill can do it all and score for your fantasy team in different ways. Rams defense isn’t very scary this season, so Hill even has a decent matchup. He missed all of week 14 and then had a forgettable week 15 ending with 4 receiving yards and 1 rushing yard. They like to use him in the goal line situations, except everyone knows he is most likely taking off. I have been burned on TNF sit spots so I’m thinking Hill either is invisible or he explodes for multiple TDs. I think they will be able to contain him.
This week we have 2 Saturday games to start the weekend so make sure your lineups are set appropriately.
Bengals @ Steelers (SATURDAY)
Start – Joe Mixon – Mixon has had an up and down year but has been fairly consistent. He has over 800 rushing yards this season and has 8 rushing TDs. Also, he can contribute to the pass game going for over 300 receiving yards this season with 1 receiving TD. Mixon might have struggled weeks ago against the Steelers but this time I think Mixon will play better. He has become a focal point for the Bengals without Joe Burrow and now Ja’Marr Chase. For what it’s worth Mixon has played the Steelers 11 times in his career and has averaged about 70 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry.
Sit – Pat Freiermuth – Freiermuth is in a weird situation for fantasy owners this week. He is facing the Bengals who are 1 of the worst teams defending TEs. Advantage Pat. He did go off on them weeks ago catching 9 passes for 120 receiving yards. Advantage Pat again. However, that was with Kenny Pickett, and this is set to be Mason Rudolph behind center. Advantage Bengals. Also, Pat hasn’t scored since week 3 and is averaging a dismal 3 receptions for 21 yards in his last 3 games. Pat has the matchup, but he is on a bad offense and is outside my top 10 TEs this week.
Bills @ Chargers (SATURDAY)
Start – James Cook – Cook was a man possessed last week absolutely destroying the Dallas Cowboys. He set career highs in carries and rushing yards with 25 rushing attempts and 179 rushing yards. He also caught 2 of his 3 targets for an additional 42 receiving yards. If all of that volume wasn’t enough, he also scored on the ground and through the air. Cook should have no problem carving up the Chargers defense that hasn’t scared anyone. Cook is a fantasy playoff dream starter.
Sit – Austin Ekeler – This is a terrible feeling putting Austin in the sit spot, but it feels borderline necessary. He is outside my top 20 RBs this week. The matchup is not good against the Bills defense that is starting to play well at the right time. Ekeler doesn’t have Justin Herbert giving him the ball, so he has to rely on Easton Stick. Chargers have looked terrible on both sides of the ball lately and Ekeler is coming off 1 of his worst games of the season accounting for just 38 total yards. LA fired their coach, they don’t have their best 2 WRs and QB1 playing, and it’s the Bills. Ekeler will need to do so much to get his value this week and I don’t foresee a great week.
Colts @ Falcons
Start – Jonathan Taylor – Jonathan Taylor is set to return this week as RB1 for the Colts after being out for 3 consecutive weeks. His presence is a game changer, and he is most likely going to get the bulk of the workload because Zach Moss might not be playing, although only questionable at this time. JT scored 3 TDs in his last 2 games played. If Taylor stays healthy, he has a great chance at a productive day in fantasy.
Sit – Kyle Pitts – Pitts is in this spot because he is very unreliable, inconsistent, and the game flow doesn’t suit him. Pitts caught 3 passes for 37 yards last week which isn’t terrible considering the Falcons only threw the ball 20 times and had 12 completions. Taylor Heinicke should make things a little better for the passing game in Atlanta, but they clearly enjoy running the ball. Pitts is around my TE20 of the week.
Seahawks @ Titans
Start – DK Metcalf – Metcalf is coming off a 78-yard performance where he caught 5 of his 6 targets against the Eagles. DK needs about 68 more receiving yards to get to 1,000 on the season and I’m sure he can do it in Tennessee. The Titans secondary is suspect and should continue to get exposed by Geno Smith and his pass catchers.
Sit – Tyjae Spears – Although the matchup is quite positive for RBs he is still in the shadow of Derrick Henry. Spears has just 1 game with double digit carries. He seems to make his impact when he catches and runs. Unless Derrick Henry gets injured or has to leave the game, Spears isn’t worth playing in the fantasy playoffs. Henry is a must start each week when healthy.
Lions @ Vikings
Start – Sam LaPorta – LaPorta may be a rookie, but he plays like an experienced vet. Jared Goff got to liking LaPorta early and often and it’s progressed all season long. We saw his skills on full display last game where he caught not 1, not 2, but 3 receiving TDs. He has 5+ targets in all but 1 game this season and he has scored 5 of his 9 TDs in his last 4 games played. Start him without hesitation.
Sit – Jameson Williams – I couldn’t decide between Jameson Williams of Detroit and KJ Osborn of Minnesota. Went with Jameson because the Lions have such a stacked offense its not easy feeding everyone. LaPorta, St. Brown, Gibbs, and Montgomery all seem like better players on the offense, especially scoring wise.
Commanders @ Jets
Start – Antonio Gibson – Forewarning I do not have a lot of confidence in Gibson this week, but he is my best option to start in my opinion. Gibson should be RB1 with no Brian Robinson and we know that Gibson can make his work in the pass game. Jets haven’t been the best against the run and RBs so this might be a decent spot for the RB.
Sit – Sam Howell – Sam has been on a rapid decline this season after a somewhat good start to the year. Last game Howell has 102 passing yards, 22 rushing yards, and 1 passing TD to go with his 1 INT. It resulted in him not playing the full game; however, he is set to start again this week against a Jets secondary I wouldn’t want to play against. At this point Howell needs a rushing TD or 2 to even be considered in the fantasy playoffs.
Packers @ Panthers
Start – Chuba Hubbard – Chuba has been the beneficiary of a consistent rushing approach the Panthers are using. Bryce Young has struggled all season, so I don’t think they want him to throw much more than needed. Chuba doesn’t mind as he has 22+ carries in each of his last 3 games totaling 278 rushing yards. Green Bay has a rather soft run defense so Chuba should get a lot of carries once again.
Sit – Bryce Young – I don’t trust the passing attack of Carolina and that starts with Young. Adam Thielen is his best weapon, but he doesn’t seem to consistently get him going. Its fantasy playoffs, you can’t take big risks. Starting Bryce Young would be a huge risk and even playing Thielen feels unsettling.
Browns @ Texans
Start – David Njoku – Njoku has over 700 receiving yards this season and has 5 TDs to show for it. He was having a good year with DeShaun Watson, but since Joe Flacco started playing again, he has elevated his performance even more. His last 2 games stats combined amount to 22 targets, 16 receptions, 195 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs. I think he is on a tear and Houston’s defense won’t be able to contain that trend.
Sit – Noah Brown – Brown had a great game last week, but this week looks to tell a different story. Nico Collins is questionable to play on Sunday and Tank Dell is on IR leaving Brown and Schultz as the top pass catchers for Case Keenum. Keenum and Brown connected well last game, but they didn’t play a defense like the Browns. Brown against the Browns. Advantage Browns.
Jaguars @ Buccaneers
Start – Baker Mayfield – Baker is peaking at the perfect time for his Bucs team. He just put up 34 points in Green Bay throwing for 381 passing yards and 4 passing TDs. Unreal performance for Mayfield who is looking to repeat that this week against the Jags who struggle against opposing QBs in fantasy. Mike Evans is forever great and now Chris Godwin is showing signs of emergence leading me to believe this offense is gelling and can have a good offensive day. Baker has 7 total TDs in his last 2 games without a single INT.
Sit – JAGUARS DST – The same reasons I’m starting Baker Mayfield are the reasons I’m benching the Jags defense. Bucs have scored 84 points in their last 3 games.
Cardinals @ Bears
Start – Trey McBride – Another rookie TE just killing it for his fantasy owners. McBride is the best pass catcher that the Cardinals have right now, and he is certainly showing it. Chicago is toward the bottom of defenses defending TEs this season, so it just makes McBride even more appealing. Trey has 9+ targets in 5 of his last 7 games including 3 games with 95 or more receiving yards.
Sit – Arizona WRs – Like I said above, McBride is the best pass catcher on the team right now. Marquise Brown is OUT for week 16 so the options are Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch. I don’t want a part of this team on either side of the ball other than Trey McBride.
Cowboys @ Dolphins
Start – Dak Prescott – Dak went from looking superhuman to taking a 21-point loss to the Bills. That was in Buffalo, and this is in Miami this week. While I give the advantage to Buffalo’s defense, that doesn’t silence how loud the Dolphins can get on defense. Dak threw an INT and has just 134 passing yards which is his season low. I think Dak will go out and put on a show with CeeDee and company.
Sit – De’Von Achane – Went with Achane here because he is heavily owned and coming off back-to-back ‘average’ performances. Since he went off in week 13, he has single digit carries and has been capped at 30 receiving yards. It’s hard to shine on an offense that has Tyreek Hill going off every week and Raheem Mostert leading the NFL with 18 rushing TDs. Achane might be worth the risk here the way he can explode, but tread lightly with the Cowboys defense looking to take out some frustration.
Patriots @ Broncos
Start – Courtland Sutton – Sutton is the clear front runner for most productive pass catching Bronco this season. He has 10 TDs on the season and gets to play the Patriots. Patriots are not a threat, although keep an eye on the weather in New England. Sutton has 60 receiving yards or a receiving TD in every single game dating back to week 5.
Sit – Patriots WRs – Hunter Henry of all people has been taking away targets and receptions from other New England pass catchers. Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker both are capable but will be tough sledding no matter the QB that throws to them. Not worth the risk, especially with Zeke Elliot also stealing targets.
Raiders @ Chiefs (MONDAY)
Start – Rashee Rice – Rice has 7 receiving TDs on the year and 3 of those came in his last 4 games. In those same 4 games Rice has 9+ targets and 7+ receptions in each game. Mahomes has gained great chemistry with the rookie, and they are complimenting each other very well at the perfect time.
Sit – Jakobi Meyers – Aiden O’Connell has not targeted Meyers nearly enough since taking over at QB1. Meyers had 1 of his better games against the chiefs this season but I don’t think he will be able to do it twice to them. 3.3 receptions with o Connell per game is not ideal. Not the worst option but I don’t have him in my top 30 WR this week.
Giants @ Eagles (MONDAY)
Start – AJ Brown – AJ Brown gets the Giants on Christmas which should be a great Christmas gift to his fantasy owners. AJ thrives against defenses that use single high safeties and that’s what we expect this week. The talented TE Dallas Goedert is back to playing which actually makes AJ an even better choice because he plays a lot better with him playing. Brown has 9+ targets in all but 4 games this season. He should feast.
Sit – Wan’Dale Robinson – The entire Giants offense with the exception of Saquon Barkley should be benched in this game. I don’t expect Christmas magic to help the Giants here. I think the Eagles will play well after being on a losing streak and playing at home. DeVito and Robinson have a good matchup on paper facing the Eagles struggling secondary, but I don’t see much happening other than garbage points.
Ravens @ 49ers (MONDAY)
Start – Brandon Aiyuk – Aiyuk is a little under the radar here this week facing a pesky Baltimore defense. Deebo and CMC are on a tear, and you can include Brock Purdy in that as well. The 49ers will have to throw some and with the attention leaning on CMC and Deebo, Aiyuk should be able to get some nice targets.
Sit – Odell Beckham Jr – Beckham Jr came back to earth after a great week 14. He only mustered 1 catch for 14 yards on just 3 targets in week 15. Not ideal on an already mostly running team.
I hope everyone has a happy and safe holiday, but more urgently lets get this fantasy playoff W.
