Chalk Board | Ownership Pivots
Evaluating chalk and finding the good and the bad is the absolute key to hitting those GPP wins. Let’s look at NFL week 14.
Quarterbacks
I’m seeing 3 value QBs as the only guys getting above 10% ownership on Draftkings this week and that’s Fields, Purdy, and Browning.
Fields of course played well against DET a few weeks back and the Lions Defense has been suspect since the Chargers game the week before they played Chicago and add to that Moore and Kmet as basically the only targets he throws to and you have a tight knit target tree that I like. It’s good chalk but if you want to pivot to Goff you have almost the same scenario there in LaPorta and St. Brown but of course that costs a bit more. I like stacking this game as a sneaky fade of the higher scoring options on the day.
Purdy is worth the chalk. He’s putting up MVP stats and there is no reason to think he won’t again.
Browning is obviously value gold, and with Chase being under 8k this seems good chalk to me too.
I like paying up for Mahomes or Allen as both are coming in lightly owned with 2 of the highest projections of he week in a game they both need to prove some points for.
Fanduel
Lamar and Fields at the top and weather might force both to run a bit more than normal so I still like the chalk and neither are over 15% projected ownership in large GPPs. Doubs is my sneaky wildcard with JJ back and his ability to run in from the goal line when needed.
*I might have a share each on both sites of the Stroud/Nico/Brown combos… NYJ scare people off and usually rightfully so but this kid is on fire and I won’t be surprised if he still rips off a good game and is nearly unowned.
Running Backs
Here we go again with Zach Moss. He was a must fade last week for me and I declare him so once more. At projections of over 30% in the large GPPs I just can’t touch him. If you want value Pivots to Keaton Mitchell or McKinnon are in order or take the free square in CEH, I’m completely off on Moss.
If you aren’t starting your lineups with CMC once more you are at a disadvantage. There is value everywhere this week. If I’m building 5 lineups he will be in at least 4.
Bijan, Jacobs, Charbonnet, Hall round out the rest of the higher owned plays and I’ll be honest, I am fading that whole set. If I am not paying up for CMC that money is going to Kamara who I predict will be a one man show. Mixon, White and Kyren are all more attractive and let’s go back to the Chuba train for one more run.
Stop taking guys splitting the load that are not named Achane. Gibbs and Monty? Nah. Singletary and Pierce? Pass.
Fanduel
The top five of Moss, Bijan, Hall, Charbonnet, Ekeler are all passes for me. CMC, Kamara, Kyren, Mixon is where it is at today. Value shout out for Javonte Williams and Keaton Mitchell.
Wide Receivers
Big ownership leans on Garret Wilson, Rice and Pittman today and I’m honestly fine with all of it. Ownership plays demand that Deebo gets a look in your lineups along with DJ Moore, and anytime you can get guys like Diggs or Adams or St. Brown at around 5% you have to consider paying up. Just in general I prefer Sutton and Moore over any of the top owned plays.
Fanduel
Diggs, Adams, Chase, Rice all approaching or exceeding 20% is a mild turn off, though as stated above I do like them. Evans and Pittman are my favorite pivots from the high end groups with a shout out to Justin Jefferson going practically unowned on FD.
Nico Collins grades out incredibly well despite the matchup on both sites… interesting.
Tight Ends
Likely…. Likely, again. STOP WITH THE LIKELY! While you’re at it no thanks to Pitts. These 2 being projected as top 3 in ownership is just gross. Full on fade. You want good chalk go to Njoku who has put up 10 or more points in all but 2 games since week 6. If I am not going Njoku or Kmet in the 4k range I am paying up or punting. Lock in Kelce, Hock, and Laporta for big games or drop all the way to my favorite punt in Hudson or right in that range with Conklin or Mayer.
Fanduel
Grades out almost the same as above.
Defenses
Looks like chalk is Browns and Ravens and both make sense. I’m starting every build by putting the Browns in. If I need to save money I run to the Bears as the Lions have been mistake prone or I pay up to the Texans or Niners.