TNF DFS Showdown
Lions at Packers (+1)
O/U 45.5
Tonight we have an NFC North divisional showdown between Detroit and Green Bay. Detroit has won the last 3 matchups. The most important news is all the injuries. At the time of this writing, we have confirmation that David Montgomery and Taylor Decker will play for Detroit. While it has not been confirmed yet, it also appears that Green Bay will have Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back as well. Keep an eye out for confirmations.
Vegas has set this game as basically a pick ‘em. The line has been changing between Even and Detroit -2 all week. Divisional matchups also tend to be lower-scoring games and I don’t see how that changes here. Jordan Love has been inaccurate passing and Detroit loves to run the ball. These are the 2 teams battling for the division, Chicago and Minnesota are 0-3.
Green Bay has a great defensive line that can apply pressure to Jared Goff, so I expect a lot of quick short passes. That line also does not do a great job against the run, so expect Detroit to employ a run-first game plan.
Detroit’s defense is ranked 4th in stopping the run. Last week they shut down Atlanta and Bijon Robinson forcing Atlanta to throw the ball. Expect the same strategy tonight. The Lions will focus on shutting down Aaron Jones and forcing Love to beat them through the air.
My Favorite Plays
Captain
RB, Jahmyr Gibbs – The Lions have been slowly increasing the rookie’s workload and with Montgomery back tonight, we should see him in the short passing game. The Packers are at the bottom of the league defending pass-catching running backs.
WR, Christian Watson – Green Bay is known for being conservative with injuries, so you know Watson is ready to play. Detroit will force Love to throw the ball a lot and Watson should be the recipient of most of those targets.
Flex
WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown – He is the most expensive player tonight but also the most consistent. S Brown always sees 10+ targets and is averaging 21 fantasy points. I don;t like the price in the Captain slot, but he will be in every lineup as a flex.
QB, Jordan Love – As I have stated several times already, I expect Detroit to focus on the run and force Love to beat them through the air. This is completely a volume play.
TE, Luke Musgrave – The Lions are legendarily bad against tight ends, and if the pass rush adds any pressure, Love will need to throw the ball quickly.
Bargains
Both Kickers – This is a tough, Divisional matchup which usually means lower scoring. Both kickers are in play.
Detroit Lions Defense – If the Lions can repeat the performance they had last week with 7 sacks, this is the best bargain on the board.