DFS Building Blocks – Week 1 – Fantasy Football Blueprint

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Andrews is out, can bump Likely up some. Also give a bump to Dobbins. I even found my way into a Dobbins + Ravens DEF in a couple as a way to be different.

With the Green Bay WRs out I’m bumping up Aaron Jones, particularly on DK where his passing volume is most helpful.

Brian Robinson has turned into chalk on FanDuel. I still like him if pairing with Washington DEF, but I’m finding myself on the Jags DEF more and then using Rachaad White over Brian Robinson.

It’s Jamaal Williams or bust in New Orleans… unless Taysom Hill gets involved. I’m making some Hill lineups on DK where I need some salary savings.

I’m staying away from Deon Jackson and the Colts for now even with Moss confirmed out.

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Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and as we speed towards a full Sunday slate it’s time for the world of DFS to emerge again. We’re off to a great start already, with one user reporting their “biggest win ever last night ($1400) in the $3/20 max” after reading @brewerymark’s Thursday night showdown article. Let’s make some more money!

The first week can be tough, with a lot of potential risks with expensive players either on new teams or players making debuts as rookies. We’ve seen that already with the uber-hyped Jahmyr Gibbs in the season opener on Thursday Night, while the trusty old, low-owned, veteran Montgomery took over the old Jamaal Williams role and then some.

Let’s dive into the 13 game Sunday slate and see what we’re working with.

Game Overviews

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

Time: 4:25 EST

Venue: SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, California

Moneyline: Los Angeles Chargers +130, Miami Dolphins -154

Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-110), Miami Dolphins +3 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 51.5

The Dolphins visit to the Chargers comes with a high point total, and a potentially explosive back and forth between two of the league’s most capable offenses when playing at their best.

Miami had a rough time when they visited the Chargers last season, but the defensive passing game coordinator that drew up that game plan, Renaldo Hill, is now actually the Dolphins defensive passing game coordinator. Expect the Dolphins to bounce back and create a lot of passing yards in this one, even against what is considered a sturdy defense. And, their could be some growing pains, but the Chargers should come out swinging with Kellen Moore unleashed as the new offensive coordinator. More on that shortly.

Tua is slightly less expensive, and I trust the partnerships with his receivers more on his side of this one purely because we don’t know what the target share is going to look like yet for Herbert and the Chargers. That brings me to either Hill or Waddle, and I’ll lean Hill.

Because of the receiver uncertainty on the Chargers, I’m actually going to lean into Everett at TE. Under Kellen Moore with the Cowboys, Dalton Schultz had 5 two-TD games in his last two seasons. I’m looking for Everett to take that role and this is the perfect game environment for it, at what should be very low ownership.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Herbert + Everett + Hill

Tua + Hill + Everett

Tua + Waddle

Tua + Hill + Berrios

Herbert + Ekeler + Hill

Ekeler + Hill

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hill

Waddle

Ekeler

Everett

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Ahmed

Berrios

Tua + Berrios + Chris Brooks

Herbert + Johnston

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Time: 4:25 EST

Venue: Lumen Field – Seattle, Washington

Moneyline: Los Angeles Rams +180, Seattle Seahawks -223

Spread: Los Angeles Rams +4.5 (-110), Seattle Seahawks -4.5 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 46.5

The Seahawks host the rebuilding Rams at Lumen Field with what feels like a relatively big total based on at least the potential struggles of the Rams this season.

Kupp is out, and Seattle running back Kenneth Walker missed practice this week with an apparent injury, so that’s one to keep an eye on with a potentially heavy workload for rookie back Zach Charbonnet in his debut.

The Seahawks passing offense against a largely unproven and potentially weak Rams secondary brings the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett into serious contention as big plays this weekend, and we could stack those guys with the Seattle DEF for a nice block. Geno is great value for the potential total too.

Seahawks rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba had to have surgery on a minor wrist fracture, but was a full participant in practice, so could be a play that some are avoiding while others take a punt. If the rookie is going to take targets away from one of the Seahawks top two, it’s more likely to be Lockett, so I’m fading him at a price point very close to DK’s.

I expect Higbee to pick up a lot of ownership with Kupp out, which makes Everett with the Chargers even more appealing for the leverage.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Geno Smith + DK + SEA DEF

Geno Smith + DK + Noah Fant

Zack Charbonnet + DK

Geno Smith + Van Jefferson + Cam Akers

DK + Van Jefferson

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Van Jefferson

Akers

SEA DEF

Higbee

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Charbonnet

Higbee

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders

Time: 1:00 EST

Venue: FedEx Field – Landover, Maryland

Moneyline: Arizona Cardinals +275, Washington Commanders -334

Spread: Arizona Cardinals +7 (-110), Washington Commanders (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 37.5

Low total on this one, but 30 of those points could easily come from the Commanders. The running back situation feels like a mess and without any real direction on snap shares going into the week, I’m leaning further towards quarterback Sam Howell and the receivers, particularly Dotson. McLaurin is far from 100% and that turf toe situation could be one that lingers, so even if he plays I’m going to let others roster him and gain an edge when he’s relatively limited.

This Cardinals franchise is going to be a dumpster fire this season. I’m not touching them this week, barring Michael Wilson, the third-round rookie with first round talent who was just always hurt at Stanford. MAYBE James Conner is a viable option, but I still don’t love it for the price.

Sam Howell’s inexperience is the only reason he’s so cheap. He’s playing the weakest team in football and one of the cheapest starters around the league. Big play potential.

While I love the Commanders DEF this week, they will be among the most popular DEF picked, so we might have to find quiet value elsewhere to gain an edge in that spot. We can also lean into the uncertainty around the RB in situation in week one. I won’t be afraid to pair Robinson + Commanders DEF to lower the effective ownership of the Commanders DEF. This is a bet on Washington controlling the game and Robinson getting a lot of volume and a couple short TDs. You can make the same bet on Gibson if you like, but I prefer Robinson here.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Robinson + Commanders DEF

Howell + Dotson + Commanders DEF

Howell + Dotson + Samuel

Dotson + Commanders DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Howell

Dotson

James Conner

Commanders DEF

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Michael Wilson

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Time: 1:00 EST

Venue: Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, Ohio

Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals -125, Cleveland Browns +105

Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -2 (-110), Cleveland Browns +2 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 47.5

This one has a high total but comes with a couple of risk factors on both sides of the ball. Assuming Joe Burrow is healthy, he should be just fine, but the Browns have a very strong secondary and while Burrow should play, he could be a little limited in his potential to scramble, which isn’t ideal against Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith.

Deshaun Watson remains unproven in a Browns uniform, but could be a high reward play for the price if he shows out in Week 1.

Joe Mixon feels like good value, but could also be stuffed at the line by this Browns defense, and Nick Chubb, while expensive, will be a play I feel good about this weekend regardless.

I’m going to take a couple of shots on Elijah Moore too. Former second rounder, traded to Cleveland, and now could easily be the second option in their offense against a young, inexperienced Bengals secondary with new starters in 2023. Ownership is very low on Moore, and he’s the type of player who could end up with five catches for over 100 yards.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Burrow + Chase + Irv Smith

Burrow + Chase + Higgins

Burrow + Chase + Chubb

Burrow + Higgins + Cooper

Watson + Elijah Moore + Higgins

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Chase

Chubb

Higgins

Cooper

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Elijah Moore

Irv Smith

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints

Time: 1:00 AEST

Venue: Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana

Moneyline: Tennessee Titans +137, New Orleans Saints -167

Spread: Tennessee Titans +3 (-106), New Orleans Saints -3 (-115)

Total Points: Over/Under 41.5

The point total feels a little low on this one, but these are two strong defensive fronts against offenses with a lot to prove.

I like Derek Carr and Chris Olave as one of my favorite stacks this week, both in terms of value versus production and in the matchup they face against the Titans corners.

Olave should be WR1 this season so I’m playing him while fading Michael Thomas. Rashid Shaheed could be one of the sneaky value plays at the bottom end, and Jamaal Williams should get a lot of work with Kamara out and rookie Kendre Miller a little banged up, but he doesn’t have the upside of some other RBs.

On the Titans side, Deandre Hopkins presents a real headache. He’s relatively inexpensive, and if he shows out it could be the cheapest price he boasts all season. So I might play him lightly, but there are far better QB/WR stacks this week for far less cost.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Carr + Olave

Carr + Olave + Saints DEF

Carr + Olave + Okonkwo

Olave + Saints DEF

Henry + Okonkwo

Henry + Carr + Olave

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Olave

Williams

Hopkins

Okonkwo

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Shaheed

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

Time: 1:00 EST

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, Maryland

Moneyline: Houston Texans +350, Baltimore Ravens -450

Spread: Houston Texans +9.5 (-110), Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 43.5

Baptism of fire for Texans rookie C.J. Stroud, going on the road in his debut against the Ravens defense and a boisterous crowd. Lamar on the other hand is fully expected to come out firing, with a new look offense and an improved set of weapons.

I am heavy on the Lamar + Zay Flowers stack this week, especially with Odell Beckham limited in practice over the last couple of days. The rookie looks the real deal and makes for a great play stacked with Lamar against a rookie head coach and a team that is expected to take time to develop. He’s very cheap for his potential production, so he’s going to be in a lot of my lineups this week.

JK Dobbins is also an underrated selection this week. He has a bad reputation in the community these days for his injury history, but he’s ready to go, and while he’s healthy he might be a great addition. Similar to the Washington’s RBs, I won’t be afraid to take a shot on Gus Edwards at near zero ownership, especially if differentiating from the Commanders DEF and playing the Ravens DEF instead.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Lamar + Zay Flowers

Lamar + Zay Flowers + Dobbins

Lamar + Zay Flowers + Ravens DEF

Dobbins + Ravens DEF

Dobbins + Dameon Pierce

Lamar + Andrews

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Dobbins

Pierce

Ravens DEF

Lamar

Flowers

Andrews

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Gus Edwards

Tank Dell

Isaiah Likely

San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Time: 1:00 EST

Venue: Acrisure Stadium – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -135, Pittsburgh Steelers +115

Spread: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110), Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 41.5

This could be a trap game for the Niners. They’re on the road against a very strong Steelers defense that filled some gaps during the offseason, and it could be trouble for those picking Brock Purdy in their lineups.

I prefer an approach leaning more towards a Pickett stack, despite facing a Niners front that can bring a lot of pressure. I’m going light on this game as there’s a lot of other matchups I prefer, and I have questions about target share between him and Diontae Johnson. All that said, Diontae Johnson is DUE for some TDs. I’m hoping he blanks again this week so I can be on the right side of that variance soon.

CMC is the best play in this one. I’m going light on everything else but I’m okay if want to “be right” on Diontae getting into the endzone.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

CMC + Pickett + Pickens

CMC + Purdy + Aiyuk + Johnson

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

CMC

Pickens

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Ronnie Bell

Darnell Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Time: 1:00 EST

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, Indiana

Moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars -240, Indianapolis Colts +200

Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -5 (-110), Indianapolis Colts +5 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 46.5

This is a high total and a very valuable game for DFS this weekend. Especially on the Jaguars side of things. Anthony Richardson will start Week 1 without Jonathan Taylor, and there’s close to zero chance that that is going to go completely smoothly. Even a solid game for AR is going to come with a few stalled drives, and that hands the ball back to Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense throughout this game.

Etienne is a solid play, as is Trevor, and multiple receiving options could find their way into your lineups too.

Maybe we play Richardson lightly, but I’m not convinced he’s going to do enough in Week 1 to be relevant. I’m okay taking a shot on Alec Pierce getting a deep ball or two from Richardson.

Historically, the Colts struggle with the Jags and this week shouldn’t be any different. Jags DEF makes a nice pivot from Washington and Baltimore as well.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Lawrence + Etienne + Kirk + Jags DEF

Lawrence + Ridley + Engram

Lawrence + Etienne + Deon Jackson

Lawrence + Etienne

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Etienne

Ridley

Engram

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Deon Jackson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

Time: 1:00 EST

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, Minnesota

Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +200, Minnesota Vikings -240

Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (-110), Minnesota Vikings-5.5 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 45.5

Baker Mayfield in Tampa might not be as bad as some are expecting it to be. Can Rachaad White live up to last year’s hype with Fournette gone? Can he get enough passing volume in a back-and-forth game or even a comeback game to pay off?

On the Vikings side, while expensive, the Cousins and Jefferson stack has a lot of potential. If you play it, you really need it to hit though, and if it doesn’t hit that could be catastrophic even with a 70-yard day for the Vikings #18. I’d rather play Jefferson alone and look elsewhere at QB.

I don’t like the Vikings run game at all either. I’m not convinced on Mattison as a starter and the franchise signing former Dolphin Myles Gaskin to the active roster only furthered those concerns. Mattison is also severely overpriced for the risk he poses this week.

This could be one of the higher scoring games of the weekend, and perhaps Jordan Addison is a sneaky play at such a discounted price compared to Jefferson?

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cousins + Jefferson

Baker + Evans

Cousins + Addison + Vikings DEF

Cousins + Jefferson + Hockenson

Baker + Godwin (also due for some TD regression)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jefferson

Addison

Hockenson

White

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Sean Tucker

K.J. Osborn

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Time: 1:00 EST

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia

Moneyline: Carolina Panthers +150, Atlanta Falcons -188

Spread: Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-110), Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 39.5

There’s not a lot here that I love, outside of Miles Sanders. He could be a really big player in this Panthers offense this season. Duce Staley is going to get the best out of him, and with a rookie quarterback and a whole new set of receivers, the running back could be a strong option both on the ground and in the pass game.

On the Falcons side, I need to see Ridder perform before I can get on board. Pitts, London, etc. are all red flags early with concerns about Ridder as their quarterback and the potential to lean heavily into the run game this season.

I like both starting backs, but Bijan is going to be in a lot of public lineups, so Miles Sanders is probably the heavier play here for me this week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Sanders + Bijan

Sanders + Panthers DEF

Bijan

Bryce Young + Sanders

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Sanders

Bijan

Hayden Hurst

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Jonathan Mingo

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots

Time: 4:25 EST

Venue: Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, Massachusetts

Moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles -200, New England Patriots +165

Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -4 (-110), New England Patriots +4 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 44.5

The Eagles stacks were so profitable last season, and it’s hard to ever want to steer away from Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown in particular. While they’re on the road against the Patriots, I still feel the two can be highly productive, and are one of the best stacks of the week. That said, they’re expensive, so play them accordingly if you’re putting out a lot of lineups.

I don’t like much on the Patriots side, even Rhamdondre. This Eagles defense is quite something, and they will key on the run and force Mac Jones into passing downs, which might not end well either. I do have some interest in bringing back Gesicki, especially on DK, where pricing is a little tighter. He’ll be super low-owned, and like Everett, is a great way to differentiate your lineups without having to get crazy.

Philly’s run game is also likely going to be a problem for DFS this year, and the best running option they have is still Jalen. You can take a flier on Gainwell for cheap or Swift or Penny if you’re feeling frisky.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jalen Hurts + A.J. Brown + Smith

Hurts + Brown + Goedert

Hurts + Smith + Goedert

Hurts + Brown + Eagles DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Eagles DEF

Hurts

Brown

Smith

Goedert

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Mike Gesicki

Gainwell/Swift/Penny

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Time: 4:25 EST

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, Colorado

Moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders +150, Denver Broncos -170

Spread: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (-115), Denver Broncos -3.5 (-106)

Total Points: Over/Under 44.5

This is a tough one. There’s no reason in my mind to play Jimmy Garoppolo or Russell Wilson this week outside of Wilson and Payton wanting to “prove it”. Jimmy G might be propped up by Davante Adams, but I’d rather play Adams by himself, and Russell Wilson has lost multiple receivers to injuries already and will need to depend heavily on Sutton and Jeudy this season.

Neither offense’s passing games give me enough to want to play them, but the run games look decent on both sides. Josh Jacobs is one of the easiest plays this week, but could have some effects from his holdout, and on the other side Samaje Perine might provide good value with Javonte expected to work his way back slowly.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jacobs + Dulcich

Javonte Williams + Dulcich

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jacobs

Adams

Dulcich

Perine

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Michael Mayer

Marvin Mims

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Time: 4:25 EST

Venue: Soldier Field – Chicago, Illinois

Moneyline: Green Bay Packers -106, Chicago Bears -115

Spread: Green Bay Packers +1 (-110), Chicago Bears -1 (-110)

Total Points: Over/Under 41.5

This one has a point total on the lower end and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it’s a game dictated by defense. Green Bay’s game plan will be to neutralize Justin Fields and make him throw the ball into their secondary, while Chicago will be looking to do whatever they need to do to throw Jordan Love off his axis.

If Watson and Doubs had been healthy I’d have actually happily considered a Jordan Love stack, but without those two we’re currently throwing darts in the dark at which pass catchers might produce in Week 1 for the Pack.

Justin Fields will be a play I use lightly, I much prefer Lamar’s situation this week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Fields + D.J. Moore

Fields + Moore + Kmet

Fields + Kmet + Bears DEF

Aaron Jones + Fields

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Fields

Aaron Jones

D.J. Moore

Kmet

Bears DEF

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Luke Musgrave

Jayden Reed

The Lineup Build

There are a few great value stacks this week, and they’re not all the most obvious ones. I’m leaning towards Lamar and Flowers, Howell and Dotson, or Carr and Olave as my top three value stacks, with the latter two likely being stacks that feature less ownership and therefore could prove to be far more lucrative. That said, a pricey Lamar paired with an underpriced Zay Flowers balances the books on the price, and Lamar has possibly the highest ceiling of the week. But…

I’m going with Herbert + Everett + Tyreek Hill on FanDuel. Herbert and Hill won’t surprise anyone but Everett brings the low ownership we need to differentiate ourselves.

I want to get Robinson + Commanders DEF in. I want to play Adams who always has two-TD upside at lower-than-normal ownership this week. Can come back with Williams or Perine. Could also swap to Jefferson + White instead though. That will determine whether we play Dobbins or take a flier on Gus Edwards.

I prefer using the different site pricing and structures to get diversity in my lineups, so on DK I’ll fade the Chargers and Dolphins. This is a good spot for Lamar stacks or Hurts stacks.

If we go Hurts + Brown + Gesicki (better on DK than FD) we have a nice, differentiated starting point. Can add Jefferson + White here as well. We like Sanders here. This starts to get expensive, but Jags DEF gives us some relief at low ownership but we’re stuck with another cheap WR and flex. Can go down further to Washington DEF, at super high ownership, but we’ve got some differentiated spots elsewhere.

This is a lineup approach where we’re not trying to win some money, we’re trying to win all the money. If you’re not first, you’re last.

Yahoo

Yahoo pricing often allows you to play things a little differently, so here’s what I ended up going with over there. I stacked heavy on the Seahawks given that both Geno and their defense provide great value. So I started out with Geno + DK + Seattle DEF.

I then added Etienne and Dobbins at running back and Cole Kmet at tight end, which left me with a $78 budget to fill three remaining spots.

That gave me Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins, for a superb looking lineup built around a Seahawks stack against the Rams.

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