Football is back and so is one of my favorite formats, the Dradtkings Showdown Captain Mode. For anyone who is new to the format, this is a single-game contest where you roster a Captain at 1.5x salary for 1.5x points. You also roster 5 flex spots at normal price. With such a small player pool, duplicate lineups are common and most prizes are chopped. Therefore we need to try and find leverage to minimize chops or to win outright. Let’s take a look at some historical data and see what we can find.
My Philosophy
Just a few notes I keep in mind when constructing lineups
- Ownership does not matter for top players (QB1, RB1, WR1)
- Don’t roster Kickers or Defense in the Captain slot
- Kickers (Flex) typically outperform other positions at the same salary
- Play Tournaments only. Embrace the volatility of the GPP!
- Only play tournaments you can MAX enter. I play 20 max, 3 max and single entry.
- Stick to 4-2 and 5-1 lineups
Give me some data!
Captain Slot Winning Position
- 31% Wide Reciever
- 27% Running Back
- 24% Quarter Back
- 9% Tight End
- 5% Defense
- 0.5% Kicker
Vegas Odds: 60% of winning lineups roster a Captain from the favored team
Correlations
- 85% of winning lineups with a CPT WR had the same team QB
- 50% of winning lineups with a CPT QB had 2 same team pass catchers
- 60% of winning lineups with a CPT QB had the opposing team QB in Flex
The more salary you use, the more the lineup will be duplicated. Using max salary duplicates lineups at over a 20% rate! I like to keep my salary between $48,000 and $48,500.
That is just the tip of the iceberg, but I feel this is a great place to start a successful Showdown season.
TNF DFS Showdown: Lions at Chiefs (-4.5)
Note: At the time of this writing Travis Kelce is a game-time decision with a hyper-extended knee. This breakdown is assuming he plays. If he is ruled out, join us in Discord as we discuss alternatives.
My Favorite Plays
Captain
QB, Patrick Mahomes – The MVP has a perfect passer rating and has thrown at least 3 TD’s in Week 1 matchups, with 0 interceptions. Mahomes is the safest play in the matchup.
RB, David Montgomery – The Lions want to run the ball and with Chris Jones, should be able to. A lot of people of recommending Jahyr Gibbs here, but I like the $2400 salary savings.
Flex
TE, Travis Kelce – Let’s face it, Kelce is really WR1 and is a must to stack with Mahomes as Captain.
WR, Sky Moore – After Kelce, it’s a crap shoot for who will catch a TD from Mahomes. I like Moore because his speed will cause issues for Detroit’s new secondary.
WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown – Like Kelce, the Sun god will get his receptions. With no true deep threats on the roster look for him to get 10+ targets
Bargains
WR, Josh Reynolds – Reynolds is by default the Lions WR2 and he has a great rapport with Jarod Goff, having played with him in both Detroit and LA. The Lions will take a few deep shots to him and a long TD could break the slate.