NFL DFS: Divisional Playoffs Breakdown and Cheat Sheet

Divisional DFS

Danger here stepping in for FFB team to get you ready for the Divisional Round! 

The largest spread of the week comes with the Jags heading to the Chiefs. It might be an unpopular opinion but it is possible this comes in at one of the lower scores of the week. I fully believe in KC putting on the gas and scoring over 30 but I have real reservations about the JAX offense keeping up with the pace. Kirk thrashed the KC defense for over 100 yards and 2 TDs earlier this year but that was basically the entire offense. I have a gut feeling the under is in play here and could see a 35-14 game. That said you can never go wrong with Mahomes or Kelce, especially with the season on the line. I’m not afraid to play with a couple of Jags but I am not stacking this game much personally. Mild weather impact but nothing I’m worried about.

The next game I keep hearing people want in on is the NYG heading to PHI. Look, this is the third time they have faced each other in the last 6 weeks. I lean to the under on second matches of divisional opponents taking into account it’s the 3rd meeting and I err on the side of familiarity with each other might create a slower-paced chess match. On the other hand, I get the same feeling as the above game. Philly is well-rested and well-coached and has been in the driver’s seat most of the year. I take the talent over the nice run the Giants have been on. Could very well be a 27-17 style game. I’m taking pieces here more than stacks but I do have some interest.

The game I think has the best chance to break out above expectations is the DAL/SF matchup. SF can be beaten through the air on the outside. The Dallas D has seemed good but I don’t think they have dealt with the threats that SF can put together. On the other side, the Niners haven’t exactly dealt with big offensive threats either. The Cowboys running game will most likely get as stuff as everyone else’s but with the talent there in Zeke and Pollard it has to be respected. Lamb is a target I like on the high end as well as guessing right between Gallup and Hilton for value.

I’m kinda stumped on the CIN/BUF game. Great offenses, good defenses, an emotional game for sure. Will Higgins be gun shy like the first couple games back? The Bengals, though winning, have struggled to break over 27 points since Thanksgiving. The Bills are generally good for 32+ but CIN has only given up an average of 17 points in the last 6 games, though back-to-back games against Baltimore without Lamar are included in there.

QB Focus

I’m not feeling getting cute with Dimes or Lawrence. If the Bengals can get some clock control with Mixon it slows them down, but I think Allen gets it done. It’s big time football week, I’m sticking with studs or punting all the way to Purdy hoping for a couple of shovel pass TD’s to CMC.

Mahomes $8000
Allen $7800
Purdy $5400

RB Focus

Not messing around here at all. There is value to find at QB and WR so I have to get my guys that are getting volume.

CMC $8000
Mixon $6400 (if you think the Bengals win, it’s a heavy dose of Mixon most likely)
ETN $6400
McKinnon $6000
Sanders $5700

WR Focus

I have to have a stud in here. Pick your poison with your QB between the guys at the top. I do prefer Brown over Smith if you are going Eagles and you can’t go wrong with Lamb, Diggs, Chase…

Let’s talk instead UNDERVALUED

Deebo $5900 and cheaper than Kirk seems wrong
Slayton $4200 I like him for 8-10 targets at near 4k!
Gallup $3800 a #2 at sub 4k against a team that needs to be beat through the air…
Jones Jr $3600 another guy getting 6 targets regularly under 4k…
Hilton $3200 near minimum pricing is intriguing to save you cash.

TE Focus

If you can force Kelce in here, great, but it’s really hard if you aren’t playing Purdy or Daniel Jones. I just don’t like enough RB value to get there and I am not sacrificing a stud WR for 3 dart throws. I see all three of the guys listed below hitting that 12-15 point range, just pick the one that you can afford.

Goedert $4500
Engram $4300
Knox $3800

DEF

Most squads are pretty good at turnovers that are left in the playoffs. Fit whatever one you can in. my favorites are CHIEFS, EAGLES, BENGALS in that order.

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