TGIF fantasy people and welcome back to my weekly Start/Sit HUB! Mike Hubbard Jr here, providing you with information that can help you win your fantasy league week in and week out. For all things fantasy football, follow me on Twitter (@FantasyHubbard). You can tweet me or message me with any questions you might have regarding the fantasy football season.
Week 13 has hit the ground running and you should have a good idea if you are fantasy playoff bound, already thinking of a better season next year, or sitting with that 50/50 feeling on the cusp of a fantasy berth. Always keep grinding and play smart. Stay informed and be strategic.
Yesterday we got the TNF matchup between the Bills and the Patriots. The away team Bills came in as 3.5-point favorites and walked away with a comfortable 14-point victory. The story here in my opinion is how badly the Patriots offense looked. Yes, the Bills defense can make an offense look ugly but what is New England’s excuse for other games? I think the Patriots should be very happy sitting at .500 this season. Patriots will look to steer the ship in a better direction in week 14 when they travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals on MNF, while the Bills look to build on their 3-game winning streak hosting the Jets who they should not sleep on. The TNF game we get in week 14 will be the Raiders @ the Rams. Should be a forgettable game between 2 teams that have a combined record of 7-15 though 12 weeks.
The week 13 games I’m most interested in and will follow closely are the Titans/Eagles, the Jets/Vikings, the Dolphins/49ers, the Chiefs/Chargers, and like most I’ll be interested to see how Deshaun Watson does returning to NFL action in a revenge game.
I’m here every week during the fantasy football season with start and sit suggestions that can impact your team each week. My decisions as always include obvious and not so obvious picks. I would also like to clarify that my sit suggestions are based on the assumption you have or can add a player that has a better chance at success. Good luck this week and continue to check out my weekly articles.
START OF THE WEEK
Start – Joe Burrow – Joe Burrow has been playing well for his Bengals and has an opportunity this weekend to make some big noise. Burrow is 3rd in the NFL in passing TDs with 23 and has only thrown 4 INTs since week 2. Burrow has a TD pass in every game this season and the matchup here is great. He not only gets to play a defense that has struggled (especially pass defense), but he also should get his star WR Ja’Marr Chase back to elevate both of their performances. Burrow has played well against KC throwing 4 TDs against them in the playoffs last season. Burrow has been a top 4 fantasy QB this season and I think that continues this week in a high scoring game.
Titans @ Eagles
Start – DeVonta Smith – The Eagles have had an exceptional offensive year thus far and Smith is a big contributor. He has 7+ targets in 7 of 11 games and 8+ in 4 of his last 5 games. Jalen Hurts is making his case for MVP and that doesn’t mean just rushing. Smith leads the entire team in receptions this season and has a nice matchup with Tennessee this weekend. The Titans have given up 14 WR TDs to this point and that includes 3 different WRs with 2+ TDs against them. The titans average 25 points allowed to WRs per game. AJ Brown has revenge on his mind and DeVonta Smith should be a little more open because of that I believe.
Sit – Ryan Tannehill – This sit spot may seem pretty obvious but if you were looking for a streamer I would look elsewhere. Tannehill has been sufficient this season and has the Titans atop their division and currently a 3 seed if the playoffs started today. Tannehill has 4 multi-TD games and has thrown over 255 yards in all of his last 3 games. The problem here is the matchup. Philadelphia has 1 loss and a big part of that is shutting down opponents QBs. The Eagles are stingy averaging under 12 points in fantasy to opposing QBs and they have the highest average INTs per game against QBs. No QB has rushed for over 42 yards against them, and they have yet to allow a QB to find the end zone via rush. Long story short bench Tannehill this week. Henry will have a hefty workload so him and maybe Burks are the only Titans I like in Philly.
Steelers @ Falcons
Start – George Pickens – Pickens numbers haven’t been eye popping but his catches have been. Pickett to Pickens is something we should get used to hearing. Since week 3 began Pickens has 7 games with 6+ targets, and 3+ receptions in 8 of his last 9 games. The matchup against the Falcons favors Pickens as Atlanta has given up 14 total WR TDs, they have allowed 6 players to surpass 100 receiving yards in a game, and 4 different WRs have 2 TDs each. Pickens might only have 2 TDs this season but that is actually the most by any WR/TE in Pittsburgh this season.
Sit – Kenny Pickett – I know what you’re thinking, how can I put a WR in the start spot but put his QB in the sit spot. Well, my reasoning is Pickens has more upside while Pickett’s ceiling has been low to start his career. The rookie out of Pittsburgh who now starts in the NFL in Pittsburgh has 3 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs in his 8 games played, but only 1 of each in his last 4 games. This would be a great spot to get some positive stats and momentum going, but he is outside my top 20 QBs this week.
Packers @ Bears
Start – Christian Watson – Watson doesn’t exactly have the best matchup this weekend against the Bears in Chicago, but you simply can’t sit a player who is on a red-hot streak in his last 3 games. Watson has caught 12 of his 20 targets in those 3 games for a total of 265 receiving yards and 6 TDs. 5 of those came from Rodgers and 1 from Love. Rodgers is expected to start again, and he has 9 games with 2+ TD passes including the first meeting with Chicago that the Packers won by 17 points. Start Watson don’t overthink it.
Sit – Robert Tonyan – Tonyan is not having the type of season he and his teammates were hoping for. Tonyan had a game with 10 receptions on 12 targets for 90 yards back in week 6. That was his best game this year and none come close. He scored in week 5 but that was his only score this season. He had 11 TDs just 2 seasons ago but has 2 or less in all other seasons he’s played in since joining the NFL undrafted in 2018. Since his 10-reception game Robert has not exceeded 35 yards in any game and has not scored. 6 receptions in his last 3 games are not ideal, even in a struggling TE position in fantasy.
Jaguars @ Lions
Start – Jamaal Williams – Detroit’s offense has averaged 25 points per game this season. They have a total of 30 TDs via rushing and receiving. Williams has 13 of those 30 giving him 43% of Detroit’s offensive scores. Given the points per game and Williams TD success, you simply can’t afford to sit him. Detroit can move the ball so when they reach the red zone Williams is all but guaranteed a touch or more. Even with D’Andre Swift getting healthier, Williams is the guy scoring and has double digit carries in every game this season.
Sit – Either D/ST – Both the Lions and the Jaguars are in the top half of the NFL in points per game. The over/under is set at 51.5 currently which is the 2nd highest of the week (Chiefs/Bengals 52.5). I like a lot of points in this game and Detroit allows a league high 28 points per game while Jacksonville allows 21. Get your popcorn ready. Sit these defenses.
Jets @ Vikings
Start – Garrett Wilson – Garrett Wilson will have Mike White throwing this week which means it is more than safe to start Wilson. Wilson has 2 game this season with 2 receiving TDs and they both happened while achieving 95+ receiving yards. Those 2 games were played without Zach Wilson. White looked stellar last week and this week he will play a tough Minnesota team but a weakness of theirs is defensing WRs. The Vikings allow the most WR receiving yards per game in the entire NFL with nearly 200 yards. Wilson should get plenty of targets in this game, as he had 5 more than any other Jet last week. I like Elijah Moore as a deeper play this week if you need someone.
Sit – Adam Thielen – Thielen is having a rough season compared to his normal seasons of the past. Yes, he caught a season high 9 passes on Thanksgiving and even scored a TD, but he has surpassed 70 receiving yards just 1 time this season and has only scored 3 TDs after having 39 in his past 4 seasons. Justin Jefferson is the guy, and the Jets pas defense has been fantastic this season. The Jets have allowed just 2 WRs to score since week 6. Thielen can produce and score but I’m going to fade him this week.
Commanders @ Giants
Start – Brian Robinson – Robinson probably has the best matchup for the Commanders this week @ the Giants. The Giants have given up 5 rushing TDs to opposing RBs in just their last 2 games and have allowed opponents to score a total of 59 points. Seems these teams are starting to move in opposite directions. Antonio Gibson is listed as questionable currently so keep your eye on his status up until game time because it could easily affect the amount of work Robinson gets Sunday.
Sit – Daniel Jones – Jones stock has been on a decline. The Giants QB has over 200 passing yards in just 4 of his 11 games this season and his only multi passing TD games were in week 1 and week 6. Jones rushing capabilities has fantasy managers attention this season but that has dwindled averaging 27 rushing yards in his last 4 games. The Washington defense has been up to the challenge winning 6 of their last 7 games and allowing just 1 rushing and 1 passing TD to opposing QBs these last 2 weeks. I think Jones will have an average day and Saquon will obviously be the focal point in the offense. Both Heinicke and Jones are outside my top 20 QBs this week so I would focus on the run games.
Broncos @ Ravens
Start – Courtland Sutton – Sutton is set to have another game of opportunity against the Ravens this week with the possibility that Jerry Jeudy will miss another game. Russel Wilson will have to throw somewhere to stay in the game and his best options are Sutton, Dulcich, and Hinton. Advantage Sutton who has come back to live since the Broncos week 9 BYE. In the 3 games since, Sutton is averaging 8 targets, 5 receptions, and 73 receiving yards per game. The Ravens just allowed Zay Jones 45 receiving yards and a TD each for Jamal Agnew and Marvin Jones Jr.
Sit – Devin Duvernay – Devin started this season hot scoring 3 TDs in his first 3 games. His best game since then was in week 5 where he has season highs in targets with 7, receptions with 5, and tied his highest yardage with 54 receiving yards. The targets are scarce despite being 1 of few WR options since Bateman was placed on IR. DeMarcus Robinson has stepped up lately but also has had some duds. I don’t trust any pass catcher on the Ravens other than Mark Andrews, especially against Denver’s pass defense. Hard for Duvernay to produce when 3 Ravens TEs have more targets than him in the last few weeks.
Browns @ Texans
Start – DeShaun Watson – Whether you are a fan of his or want him to lose badly, I’m picking him to start here. The talent couldn’t have gone away because of off the field issues, and the matchup is just too good. Texans defense is terrible, and the Browns offense gets an upgrade with Watson at QB. I think Watson will play well and try to shush a lot of the people who will boo and heckle him in Houston this weekend. I’m liking him to rush a bunch to get back into the flow of things and the Texans can’t stop the run.
Sit – Kareem Hunt – Hunt is playing the Texans who are the worst team in the league defending RBs. So why sit him? Well Chubb is healthy and will get the bulk of work, but Hunt has gotten some chances to produce but not nearly enough to impact heavily in fantasy. Deshaun Watson is the story here so Hunt will most likely only get a few looks in the passing game and single digit carries. He has only been targeted 3+ times once in his last 6 games. Hunt also hasn’t scored since week 7. The only way I see Hunt going off is if Chubb gets hurt or they are leading by a lot and just want to run clock. With the heated tension on the field this week I don’t think Houston will lay down easily.
Seahawks @ Rams
Start – Tyler Lockett – Lockett has scored a TD in 4 consecutive games and has 6 on the season. Geno Smith is playing like comeback player of the year and has 2 passing TDs in 9 of 11 games this season. Lockett and Geno are clicking, and this is a good matchup to continue that trend. The Rams have allowed 8 passing TDs in their last 4 games and each of those 4 games had a QB pass for 235+ yards. Lockett and Metcalf should be forces this weekend playing a struggling Rams team that is still hungover from last year’s Super Bowl win.
Sit – Rams D/ST – Rams defense was elite at a time not long ago but has since struggled. The Rams have allowed opponents an average of 23 points against them per game and recently have given up 26+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. The defense recovered a fumble and picked off Mahomes last week but still lost by 16 points and prior to last week they hadn’t had a fumble recovery or INT in 7 of their previous 8 games. Rams are struggling on defense and the Seahawks are playing well on offense averaging 26.5 points per game this season which is 4th best in the NFL.
Dolphins @ 49ers
Start – George Kittle – Kittle has been hit or miss most the season that he has played in but is still top 7 in fantasy points for TEs. This week he gets the Dolphins who have surrendered 7 TE TDs this seasons. The Dolphins have allowed a TE to either score a TD or reach 75 receiving yards in every game sine week 6. With the uncertainty of Deebo Samuel at this point in time, Kittle could see even more targets than projected. He is my #3 TE this week behind only Kelce and Andrews. Fire him up.
Sit – Raheem Mostert – This is a revenge game if you will since Mostert was a 49er for 6 seasons in his career. Like times in San Francisco, Raheem is currently dealing with injuries. He is listed as questionable after being limited in practice. Even if Mostert is active, Jeff Wilson Jr will have more chances and the 49ers defense is legit at almost all defensive positions. The 49ers blanked the Saints last week, gave up just 10 points to the Cardinals the week prior, and haven’t allowed more than 16 points to opponents since the Chiefs in week 7. It will be hard for Mostert to gain yards and it would be a shocker if he found the end zone. Not many Dolphins I like in this game not named Tua, Waddle, or Hill.
Chiefs @ Bengals
Start – Joe Burrow – SEE START OF THE WEEK TOP OF PAGE
Sit – Tyler Boyd – Boyd is in this sit spot mainly due to the likelihood that Ja’Marr Chase returns and puts on a clinic. Still a great matchup for Boyd but I like Higgins and Chase more. We know Boyd can explode as we have seen with 2 100+ receiving yard games with a TD in both. So, feel free to start him just proceed with caution if you have other good options. I’m all in on Chase this week if he can stay healthy and it could affect Boyd’s target share. Chase hasn’t played since week 7 and since then Boyd has just 1 TD and no more than 44 receiving yards in a game.
Chargers @ Raiders
Start – Josh Palmer – I think this game has high point total potential. Palmer could definitely benefit from that. Charger’s receivers have been in and out this season, but since their week 8 BYE, Palmer has been consistent and fantasy worthy. The 2nd year WR has 7+ targets in all games since the BYE and has 100+ yards in 2 of those games. He had 2 TDs against KC in week 11 proving he can explode anytime. Herbert has star power around him, but you can’t bench starting Chargers against the Raiders who have let many team’s feast offensively.
Sit – Either D/ST – I know I know another D/ST pick in the sit spot. Well, who are you going to fade in this game? Like I said above I believe this game could be a shootout and so do the books giving it a 50.5 over/under. I’m imagining a lot of offensive scores which can really hurt a team’s defense in fantasy.
Colts @ Cowboys
Start – Tony Pollard – Continuing the Tony Pollard train that just keeps going. He can coexist with Zeke and still put-up fantasy points. Pollard has double digit carries in 6 consecutive games, has 3 triple digit rushing yard games, a triple digit receiving yard game, and a total of 8 TDs. The Colts have had success against the pass but have struggled with defending runs. Pollard and Zeke are both in a good spot to produce this week. Pollard should be able to keep his streak of 60+ rushing yards going for a 6th consecutive game.
Sit – Michael Gallup – Taking Gallup in my sit spot here because the Colts are great defending WRs this season and Dak seems to favor others a little more than Gallup. Even with Gallup being healthy and active, Daks #1 guy is CeeDee Lamb, and he has also shown a little favoritism toward TE Dalton Schultz. Schultz has 3 TDs in his last 3 games and CeeDee has been a target hog. I’m sure Dak will have success throwing, but it will be hit or miss with Gallup and hit doesn’t feel likely compared to those around him. I think Dallas pounds the rock.