NFL DFS: Thursday Night Football Week 13

Spread: BUF -3.5
O/U: 43.5

Tonight Week 13 kicks off with the Bills at the Patriots.  When researching this game a few things stuck out to me.  The O/U is at 43.5 and the Bills have gone UNDER on all 6 of their road games. I have also heard a lot of chatter about how good the New England defense is.  But if you look at their games, when they play a good QB (Tua, Lamar, Rodgers), they surrender 23 Fantasy points and 7.9 yards per attempt.  When they play a subpar QB (Wilson, Goff, Trubisky) they only surrender 9 fantasy points per game. I consider Josh Allen to be a top QB, so I am not worried about this defense at all.

Captain/MVP Picks

Josh Allen, QB – Buffalo

Allen is the most expensive payer and I expect him to be the most owned Captain and Flex, but his dual-threat ability is just too good to fade. In his last four against New England, Allen is averaging a 67% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, 3.25 passing TDs, and 51 rushing yards per game.

FLEX Picks

Rhamondre Stevenson – RB, New England

Damien Harris is out again this week, so  Stevenson is in line for another massive workload. Stevenson has played four games over the last two years without Damien Harris in the lineup. In those games, he’s averaging 20.5 total opportunities and 18.4 PPR points per game.

Stefon Diggs – WR, Buffalo

On the season, Diggs is seeing a 30% target share with a 37.3% air yards share. He’s the exact archetype I want to bet on in showdown contests. Justin Jefferson torched the Patriots (9/139/1) last week, so don’t worry about the matchup. Play the best receiver on the board.

Mac Jones – QB, New England

Following a game script where the Patriots are playing from behind, Mac Jones offers good value with high volume. And don’t be afraid of the Bills’ defense. Since Week 7, Buffalo ranks 26th in EPA per attempt and 22nd in pass yards per game allowed.

Gabriel Davis – WR, Buffalo

This is an alternate play of Steffon Diggs.  If you look back at games that Davis excelled, he was negatively correlated to Diggs.  Meaning when Davis hits it is at the expense of Diggs.  I would not use him in cash lineups, but he makes a great GPP flyer.

Jakobi Meyers – WR, New England

Since Week 5, Buffalo has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing slot WRs. Meyers has lined up in the slot 71% of the time this season, and on the year, he’s averaging 7.1 targets per game.

Value Pick

Nelson Agholar – WR, New England

Over the last two weeks, Agholar leads all Patriot WRs in routes run and targets and leads the team in yards per route run and yards after the catch per reception. This is an obvious dart throw but could help catapult a GPP lineup.

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