DFS Building Blocks – Week 9

Whew. I hope you didn’t get too excited when one or two or even three of your players went off last week as your roster needed about nine players to go off. We noted that we were comfortable passing on some of the chalk RB options because there were a lot of other viable options at much lower ownership. Henry and CMC came through. Foreman came through. A lot of players came through last week, meaning you probably scored a ton of points and didn’t make any money. I had a lineup with Henry, CMC, and Pollard… and it didn’t cash. I had a lineup with Henry, Kamara, and Pollard… and it didn’t cash.

One thing to point out is good chaulk. We talked about Pollard being potentially the highest owned player of the year, but he was still worth it. We lean toward fading players at high ownership, but when they’re such a good play, we just go along with the crowd. He was around 50% in the $5 tourneys, but as you moved up to $55, and up to $555 you saw his ownership increase all the way to over 80%! That just illustrates the point that sharp players are eating good chalk but pivoting away from bad chalk. We can find plenty of examples in the other direction, chalk plays being highly owned at lower stakes, but lower owned at higher stakes.

We also talked about using the Cowboys DEF paired with Pollard as a way to lessen the impact of that ownership. The Cowboys DEF, while not world beaters last week (and a little lucky to get a TD) was only 11% owned and finished as the third highest scoring DEF, giving us a relatively unique and valuable Pollard + Cowboys DEF stack. When we eat good chalk, we’ll find other ways to differentiate our lineups.

Initial Reactions

This week looks like a heavy chalk week, with a couple nice spots to differentiate. Because it appears to be a heavy chalk week, it also presents a nice case for a secondary lineup full of pivots. We don’t have nearly as many attractive RB plays as last week. And nothing really jumps out at TE and DEF this week, making that a spot we can probably get some advantage.

Game Overviews

Atlanta Falcons *	Los Angeles Chargers	3(-110)	140	23.25	49.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Los Angeles Chargers	Atlanta Falcons *	-3(-110)	-165	26.25	49.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

Highest over/under of the week with a close spread. Doesn’t seem like the spread should be this close but Atlanta has been playing in competitive games. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both out which means more work for Ekeler, Everett, and Palmer or Carter. Ekeler is going to be popular, but he’s good chalk. He’ll probably be a lock for our main lineup. Everett, at first glance, is the most attractive TE to me. He’s relatively popular but we don’t have to worry about ownership at the TE position as much. An Ekeler + Everett mini-stack is a nice way to attack this game. I like Allgeier again on the other side, but with Taylor out and Jackson starting for the Colts, we’ve got other RB value options. Pitts is too popular and too expensive for me, so I’ll likely just stick to the Chargers side of this one, unless I find a lineup that has Allgeier + Palmer perhaps and fades Ekeler.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Ekeler + Everett

Herbert + Ekeler

Herbert + Ekeler + Everett/Palmer

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Ekeler

Everett

Palmer

Allgeier

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Allgeier + Palmer/Everett

Mariota + Ekeler + London/Pitts

Herbert + Allgeier + Palmer/Everett

Detroit Lions *	Green Bay Packers	3.5(-110)	150	23	49.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions *	-3.5(-110)	-185	26.5	49.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

Tied for highest over/under of the week and a close spread. We did nice on our Rodgers to Jones receiving connection a few weeks ago and this game screams Aaron Jones again. The problem is that it screams Aaron Jones to 30% of the field, putting him into fade consideration. Now, I tend to think he’s good chalk this week coming in cheaper than Ekeler, but he’s not as strong a lock as Ekeler. Since no DEF really stands out, I want to take a shot at getting really unique and stacking Jones + Packers DEF. This shouldn’t be the shootout that Miami and Detroit was so there’s a better chance that the Packers DEF can be viable here, although the matchup is in Detroit. We’ll see how our lineups look. You could also easily make a pivot from Jones and just go with Rodgers + Doubs, although he’s a little popular himself. And Tonyan is expected to be the highest owned TE. With popular receiving options, I’m more likely to just eat the chalk on Jones and find other places to differentiate my lineup.

On the Lions side, people tend to be St. Brown or bust, but I’m looking at Swift, with a nice matchup, at tiny ownership. The Jamaal Williams TDs last week crushed the Swift owners, making him a really nice game theory pivot this week. You can even make a case for Swift + Lions DEF since Green Bay has looked so bad. But we know we don’t expect Rodgers to deliver a bunch of turnovers. Williams is also low owned, as is Dillon on the Packers side. All reasonable pivots. The other place to look is the Lions TE options without Hockenson now. Wright and Mitchell are both in play as super cheap options who could get into the end zone.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jones + Packers DEF

Rodgers + Jones

Jones + St. Brown

Goff + Jones + St. Brown

Jones + Mitchell/Wright

Rodgers + Doubs + St. Brown

Rodgers + Swift + Doubs/Tonyan

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jones

St. Brown

Swift

Williams

Mitchell/Wright

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Swift/Williams + Lions DEF

Dillon + Packers DEF

Goff + Dillon + St. Brown

Goff + Jones + St. Brown + Mitchell/Wright

Arizona Cardinals *	Seattle Seahawks	-2(-110)	-125	25.5	49	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 05:05
Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals *	2(-110)	105	23.5	49	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 05:05

What a difference De’Andre Hopkins makes! I’m still of the mindset that this game will be lower scoring than this line suggests, with both defenses playing pretty good. We’ve pointed out multiple times that Arizona is solid against WRs making this a spot we can target Dissly or Fant again, especially in a week without a lot of top TE options. I don’t mind taking a shot on Eno Benjamin here or Ken Walker, but mostly I’ll be staying away from this game. If you’re going with “Vegas knows” though play this game as a full overstack banking on it going way over it’s total.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Murray + Walker + Hopkins

Benjamin + Dissly/Fant

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Walker

Benjamin

Dissly/Fant

Moore

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Murray + Walker + Hopkins + Moore/Ertz

Murray + Walker + Hopkins + Lockett/Metcalf/Dissly/Fant

Smith + Lockett + Hopkins

Smith + Hopkins + Dissly/Fant

Walker + Seahawks DEF

Benjamin + Cardinals DEF

Jacksonville Jaguars *	Las Vegas Raiders	2(-110)	110	23	48	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Las Vegas Raiders	Jacksonville Jaguars *	-2(-110)	-130	25	48	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

This is the first game that stands out when talking about a non-chalk approach. This game feels likes a great bounce-back candidate and a great overstack candidate for our secondary lineup. Jacobs was a dud after tearing up the previous three weeks. Adams was sick and now gives us a chance to get a cheaper Adams at relatively low ownership. Etienne looks to be a in a nice spot, although he’s popular. Kirk seems forgotten. This is a spot where we can target both teams’ primary options in a game stack without sacrificing ownership leverage. That’s a great spot to be in.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jacobs + Adams

Jacobs + Adams + Kirk

Carr + Jacobs + Adams + Kirk

Carr + Jacobs + Etienne + Adams + Kirk

Jacobs + Etienne + Adams

Carr + Etienne + Adams

Lawrence + Jacobs + Kirk + Adams

Lawrence + Etienne + Kirk + Adams

Lawrence + Etienne + Jacobs

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jacobs

Adams

Etienne

Kirk

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Moreau

Carr + Jacobs + Moreau

Waller

Carr + Adams + Waller

Carr + Jacobs + Waller

Zay Jones/Marvin Jones

Lawrence + Jacobs + Jones/Jones + Adams

New York Jets *	Buffalo Bills	11.5(-110)	425	17.25	46	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Buffalo Bills	New York Jets *	-11.5(-110)	-600	28.75	46	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

Bills as big favorites. We’ve seen this scenario a few times and must ask ourselves again how they get to those points? Even in games where we expect them to lean on the run, they do seem to stick to the pass. This is the perfect matchup for Gabe Davis who scores TDs in bunches when he scores them, making him a great tournament player. Allen is the most popular QB and with people just auto-playing Diggs, Davis is a nice pivot at a much friendlier price. And, we could pivot entirely, and move down to Singletary. I like this play as his ownership should be lower with people assuming he’s going to lose his passing game work. He might, but it might not be this week. And maybe they feed him more as a primary runner now. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Singletary with two-TDs at the end of this game. I’ve played around with some rosters that ended up with Singletary at the flex because his price seems too low for his role on a team that is a huge favorite. Singletary TDs are direct leverage off of Allen and Diggs ownership. I’m not touching anything on the Jets, although they make a strong case for a game theory DEF in a lottery-pick lineup or even in your main if you’re fading Bills players.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Allen + Davis

Singletary + Bills DEF

Singletary + Davis (could potentially capture all the Bills TDs with this stack)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Davis

Diggs

Singletary

Allen

Knox

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Wilson + Singletary + Wilson

Allen + Davis + Wilson + Knox

Robinson + Jets DEF

Jets DEF

Wilson + Carter + Diggs/Davis/Knox

Chicago Bears *	Miami Dolphins	4(-110)	165	20.75	45.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Miami Dolphins	Chicago Bears *	-4(-110)	-200	24.75	45.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

Last week we took the ownership leverage and played Waddle over Hill. We could easily fire that one up again, but this does seem like a spot for some Hill TD regression. The problem is he’s the most popular WR on the slate. If we go to Hill, we have a surprisingly easy way to differentiate our lineups… Justin Fields. Fields has hit over 3x this price in the last two weeks against better defenses. No reason to think he can’t do it again here. A naked Fields + Hill lineup is a great way to target this game. Or, take even more leverage, and go Fields + Waddle. I don’t have a lot of interest in the other pieces of this game, although I did build a lineup that found Mooney as the cheap piece that filled out my roster, but I’m not going out of my way to add him to Fields. Mostert should be popular, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson mixed in more than we think since he’s familiar with the offense already.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Fields + Hill

Fields + Waddle

Fields + Hill + Waddle

Tua + Hill + Waddle + Dolphins DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hill

Waddle

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Gesicki

Fields + Mooney + Hill/Waddle

Tua + Montgomery/Herbert + Hill + Waddle

Montgomery + Bears DEF

Mostert + Dolphins DEF

Washington Commanders *	Minnesota Vikings	3(-105)	140	20.25	43.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Minnesota Vikings	Washington Commanders *	-3(-115)	-165	23.25	43.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

This game looks like another potential spot to stack up and differentiate from the chalk. If going way from Hill in your lineup, Justin Jefferson has a great matchup and seems a little forgotten. Maybe he reminds us who he is. There’s even a path to jam Hill and Jefferson into your lineup if you take on some value and risk at DEF. Thielen is always in play for his TD potential. McLaurin looks great with Heinicke. Heinicke is even playable. I’m staying away from both running games as this should be a Vikings passing attack and Washington is too much of a committee. That said, any Washington RB makes a nice lottery pick for that reason.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jefferson + McLaurin

Cousins + Jefferson + Thielen + McLaurin

Heinicke + Jefferson + McLaurin

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jefferson

Thielen

McLaurin (rather play him in a stack though)

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Cook + Vikings DEF

Robinson/Gibson

McKissic

Logan Thomas

Cincinnati Bengals *	Carolina Panthers	-7.5(-105)	-350	25	42.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals *	7.5(-115)	260	17.5	42.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

No Chase, but this feels like a really low total for a team as explosive as Cincinnati and a Carolina team that is playing well. Gasp. We’ve seen situations where injuries narrow our options on a team and this is one of those. Mixon, Higgins, Boyd, Hurst all in play. PJ Walker isn’t getting any respect but he’s been right around 3x this price the last two weeks. He’s a great salary saver this week who can be played without a stacking partner. But it’s also easy to get down to Marshall or Shenault as cheap pieces to fill out your lineup (making it viable to get to Hill + Jefferson lineups). You could run that back with Hurst or Mixon. If I can’t fit Fields in, Walker is probably my QB this week. And Foreman continues to shine when given the opportunity, although his price is starting to reflect it. Moore is coming on and his price still seems pretty cheap. All of these plays probably need to the game to outperform it’s expected total, but that’s what makes it a good stack in tournaments.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Burrow + Higgins + Boyd

Walker + Mixon

Burrow + Foreman + Higgins + Boyd/Hurst

Walker + Mixon + Moore/Marshall/Shenault

Mixon + Bengals DEF

Foreman + Panthers DEF (remember what they did to the Bucs)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Higgins

Boyd

Hurst

Mixon

Foreman

Moore

Walker

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Walker + Mixon + Marshall + Shenault

Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	Los Angeles Rams	-3(-105)	-155	22.75	42.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 05:25
Los Angeles Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	3(-115)	130	19.75	42.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 05:25

Weird to see this game at the bottom of the list, but that’s the reality this year. Do both teams keep stinking? Or do both get into a shootout this week? Or does one rise to the top? Does Brady put on a show for the ladies??

I like the potential to stack this game. We’ve had success (seems like years ago) with Brady + Evans + Godwin and this game sets up as a passing game. Kupp is popular. Godwin is popular. Evans is down the list pretty far and has a ton of TD potential. I’m either going to full stack this game or just go with Brady + Evans + maybe Kupp. You can take a shot on the other side as well starting with Stafford and Kupp if you want. This game is really about picking a story and taking a chance. Maybe Vegas is right and this game stinks and you avoid it all together. Maybe you take a shot on Julio Jones or Rachaad White. Fournette is a little too popular for the way this game sets up and his recent performance.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Brady + Evans + Kupp

Brady + Evans + Godwin + Kupp

Brady + Evans + Higbee

Brady + Evans + Jones/Otton + Kupp

Stafford + Kupp + Evans

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Evans

Kupp

Godwin

Higbee

Otton

Van Jefferson

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Brady + White + Kupp

Stafford + Evans + Jefferson

Stafford + Fournette + Kupp

Fournette + Bucs DEF

Akers

Akers + Rams DEF

New England Patriots *	Indianapolis Colts	-5.5(-110)	-250	23	40.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00
Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots *	5.5(-110)	200	17.5	40.5	Sun, Nov 6, 2022 02:00

Deon Jackson or bust. Tough matchup but he’s the starter with no Hines around. He’s super cheap and should get a ton of touches. He might not get 30 points, but he’s a great chance to get his 3x simply by volume. He’s the most popular play of the week and doesn’t have Pollard upside, but he’s also cheaper than Pollard was last week. I’ll be locking him in (might fade him in my secondary lineup). I like Ehlinger who should run more, but would rather play Fields or Walker this week. I like Pierce, but mostly just staying away from this game outside of Jackson. You could make a play for Stevenson + Patriots DEF, especially in a lineup that fades Jackson. But it’s viable even with Jackson. And you could go deeper and play Harris + Patriots DEF. A Jackson + Patriots DEF lineup would instantly remove the impact of the 50% ownership on Jackson.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Stevenson/Harris + Patriots DEF

Jackson + Colts DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jackson

Stevenson

Lottery Picks (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Harris

Pierce

Ehlinger

Ehlinger + Stevenson + Pierce

Ehlinger + Jackson + Meyers

Jones + Jackson + Meyers

The Lineup Build

We’re all over the chalk this week, with a couple ways to differentiate our lineups. We’ll definitely have one primary lineup and one secondary lineup that looks for clear pivots from the chalk and hedges against our primary build. Jackson is super popular, so a secondary that features the Patriots DEF is a smart play.

FD

Starting with my locks and studs that I want to jam in. Ekeler + Jackson + Hill + Jefferson + Davis. Fields at QB opposite Hill. I need to save at TE and while I like Everett, since I have Ekeler already I can drop down to Logan Thomas opposite Jefferson. I’ll work from the bottom up on DEF and add Detroit since I’m fading Jones and the other Packers, might as well get the added leverage of Detroit DEF. You could move up to Carolina DEF, which has a better chance of performing well. I don’t love my flex, but I can add Drake London opposite Ekeler. That’s a team full of mini-stacks, some clear studs, some players with big TD potential, a nice ownerhip play with Fields, and a hold-on-to-the-seat-of-your-pants play with the Lions DEF. There are plenty of viable options below London if you want to drop down at flex and “upgrade” at DEF. The problem is all the other options aren’t much better than the Lions or Panthers, so might as well take your shot with salary savings at DEF this week. MIA DEF is projecting to be the highest owned, so Fields gives us additional leverage against that.

I’ll be playing around with lineups built around Brady + Evans and the Raiders/Jags game for my secondary lineup. Likely will fade Ekeler and play Everett at TE or Palmer at WR. May fade Jackson and play Patriots DEF there. Or go with Foreman + Panthers DEF. I like getting Singletary into my secondary lineup. I like Allgeier opposite either Everett or Palmer.

DK

Starting with Etienne as he’s too cheap here. I like targeting Jones here at much lower ownership than on FD. I’ll add St. Brown. I’ll add Mitchell at TE as a dirt cheap option and building on that game stack. I’ll add Palmer since I’m fading Ekeler and Everett here. I’ll add Fields + Hill. And I’ll round it out with Foreman + Panthers DEF.

Yahoo

I’ll build my Brady stack here with Evans + Julio Jones. I’ll add Higbee at TE. I’ll add Aaron Jones. I’ll get my Devin Singletary exposure here. I’ll pair Ekeler + Chargers DEF. And I can fit Tyreek Hill in.