Whew. I hope you didn’t get too excited when one or two or even three of your players went off last week as your roster needed about nine players to go off. We noted that we were comfortable passing on some of the chalk RB options because there were a lot of other viable options at much lower ownership. Henry and CMC came through. Foreman came through. A lot of players came through last week, meaning you probably scored a ton of points and didn’t make any money. I had a lineup with Henry, CMC, and Pollard… and it didn’t cash. I had a lineup with Henry, Kamara, and Pollard… and it didn’t cash.
One thing to point out is good chaulk. We talked about Pollard being potentially the highest owned player of the year, but he was still worth it. We lean toward fading players at high ownership, but when they’re such a good play, we just go along with the crowd. He was around 50% in the $5 tourneys, but as you moved up to $55, and up to $555 you saw his ownership increase all the way to over 80%! That just illustrates the point that sharp players are eating good chalk but pivoting away from bad chalk. We can find plenty of examples in the other direction, chalk plays being highly owned at lower stakes, but lower owned at higher stakes.
We also talked about using the Cowboys DEF paired with Pollard as a way to lessen the impact of that ownership. The Cowboys DEF, while not world beaters last week (and a little lucky to get a TD) was only 11% owned and finished as the third highest scoring DEF, giving us a relatively unique and valuable Pollard + Cowboys DEF stack. When we eat good chalk, we’ll find other ways to differentiate our lineups.
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