DFS Building Blocks – Week 7

SUNDAY UPDATE: Swift is out. Hopefully that doesn’t increase ownership on Dallas DEF because it’s setting up to be a really nice leverage spot.

On FD, I’m going with two main lineups: A Brady + Evans stack. And, fading the chalk at RB, going with Henry, Jones, and Elliott. I’m still playing around with what other correlations I want to add: McLaurin (Dotson out), Pierce/Campbell, Moreau at TE as a pivot away from Jacobs ownership or full stack with Otton.

My other will be a KC vs SF stack. Mahomes + Deebo + Kittle. I want to get Walker + Williams into this one. Then I’ll see what else fits. Might have to move down from Deebo to Aiyuk to open up more salary.

On DK, I’m sticking with a naked Mahomes + Kittle. You can go extreme studs and duds if you’re willing to take a chance on guys like Berrios, Skyy Moore, McKissic, Rachaad White (I’d swap to Bucs DEF then), Campbell.

You can never fit every player you like. The above lineups leave me wishing I had more Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers.

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I started last week’s lineup build with the caveat that on a week with two clear top games and clear chalk value RBs, you should enter more lottery-pick lineups. The leverage, when those games and players bust, is HUGE.

I noted that I felt the Bills and Chiefs could bust and even if it ended up matching its point total, it could be 35-20 Bills. In the end, it was 24-20 Bills. Allen and Diggs were fine, both coming in at just under 3x their salary, but that was about it. I did end up sprinkling in JuJu Smith-Schuster (thank you poor tackling) into my lineups where I added a Bills WR to Allen and Singletary, but that WR was usually Davis or McKenzie who didn’t really help us.

The other top game, SEA vs ARI, ended up 19-9.

Enter all the leverage.

The winning lineup had Burrow + Chase. And Stevenson from a Patriots team that put up 38 points. And Hill and Gesicki (who finally decided to put a game together). We targeted the MIN vs MIA game as our pivot build and it seems we were on the right track, but the game didn’t erupt as Cousins + Jefferson + Thielen (finally got that TD) performed okay but weren’t tourney-winners. That lineup also had JuJu but no other pieces from the Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals, or Seahawks, again reinforcing that in heavy chalk weeks, we can target those games differently than the field – not stacking them and just taking single players who are pivots from the higher-owned players in those games.

On to week 7.

Initial Reactions

This is a week with a ton of bad games. Lots of low totals and no matchups to really get excited about. I would expect the public to get excited about the Chiefs and 49ers after the CMC trade and perhaps ownership gets out of control banking on a Mahomes and Chiefs bounce-back.

With so many low totals this is a week to really focus on implied team total found on the Betting Odds page. We’ve got teams like the Bucs in a game with a terrible 39.5 point total but they have the 6^th highest implied team total at 26.25. The question, as we’ve asked the last two weeks with the Bucs and Bills, is how do they get to that 26 points?

When I do my first look, I’m always looking for players and lineups that look like locks and ones that look like pivots away from the chalk. The public has gotten better about not automatically chasing points, but they’re still not always loading up on bounce-back opportunities, like the Packers this week.

We may not be able to know for sure whether teams like the Packers and Bucs are just in a funk or they really have declined, but I can think of worse places to put my money than banking on a Rodgers or Brady bounce-back.

The clear lock for me this week is Elliott + Cowboys DEF. It seems Dak is getting all the attention and people just expect the Cowboys to come out firing on all cylinders and passing a ton. Well, they may fire on all cylinders, but that means starting with the running game. Going all the way back to last season after the Bucs and Cowboys opened the year with an offensive shootout, I reminded you that the Cowboys want to run the ball to set up the pass. That remains true and if Elliott isn’t getting the ownership attention he should, then he’s a clear lock for me and a great pivot away from the Cowboys passing game. Regarding the Cowboys DEF, I can also think of worse ways to spend my money than on Jared Goff being Jared Goff.

Game Overviews

Los Angeles Chargers *	Seattle Seahawks	-5.5(-110)	-225	28	50.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:25
Seattle Seahawks	Los Angeles Chargers *	5.5(-110)	180	22.5	50.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:25

Our only game projected over 50 points this week. This should draw a lot of interest and it does appear the Herbert and Smith are popular, Lockett and Metcalf are popular, Walker is popular again. What stands out to me in this game is Ekeler isn’t overly popular, but that’s because he’s so expensive. The other two pieces that stick out here are Mike Williams and Gerald Everett. I’m more likely to attack this game with one of those as individual plays. Or, bite the salary bullet, and play Ekeler, but even if he explodes he just getting to 3.5x at most probably. If I don’t find a lot of other RB options, I could bite the ownership bullet with Walker, whose matchup and price do make him a good play, and I can get some leverage by adding Williams or Everett. This game could erupt as we’ve seen with some of the Seahawks games this year and we’ve definitely seen it from the Chargers in the past. Just like the Bills and Chiefs last week though, I tend to view these games with more potential to underperform than most, which makes it a lot easier to stay away at high ownership. Although I do feel a lot better about this game’s potential to erupt than I did the Bills and Chiefs.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Walker + Williams

Walker + Everett

Herbert + Walker + Williams (low ownership on Williams offsets Herbert’s high ownership)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Walker

Williams

Ekeler

Metcalf

Lockett

Everett

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Herbert + Ekeler + Williams + Lockett/Metcalf

Smith + Lockett/Metcalf + Williams

Ekeler + Chargers DEF

Herbert + Walker + Williams + Everett

Dallas Cowboys *	Detroit Lions	-6.5(-110)	-300	27.75	49	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00
Detroit Lions	Dallas Cowboys *	6.5(-110)	240	21.25	49	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00

I talked about this game a fair amount in the intro, so I won’t go too deep here. Elliott’s ownership is all over the place, but we do have him projected to be relatively low, making him an easy lock and pivot from the passing game, as discussed above. What’s more interesting is that the Cowboys DEF is coming in at almost the absolute bottom in projected ownership. Yes, the Lions should have Swift and St. Brown back and yes, at full strength, they put up some big games to start the year, but the Cowboys DEF is very real and is the type of defense that should give Goff trouble. At tiny ownership, they’re a lock and a great pivot away from the likely most popular, Bucs DEF.

With such low ownership for the Cowboys DEF, we would expect the Lions’ players to be higher owned. It does appear that Swift is relatively high owned, but St. Brown isn’t. If you’re going to a different DEF than the Cowboys, St. Brown would be a good pivot away from Swift, but don’t forget the low implied team total in a game where Dallas could eat clock with Elliott.

Lamb is projected for very high ownership, so I would only play him a full game stack.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Elliott + Cowboys DEF

Elliott + St. Brown

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Elliott

Pollard

St. Brown

Swift

Hockenson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Gallup

Goff + Elliott + St. Brown + Hockenson

Goff + St. Brown + Gallup

Prescott + Elliott + St. Brown

Prescott + Elliott + Lamb + Cowboys DEF

Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers *	-1.5(-110)	-125	25	48.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:25
San Francisco 49ers *	Kansas City Chiefs	1.5(-110)	105	23.5	48.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:25

SF defense vs KC offense. Are the 49ers confident enough in their defense that they try to slow the game down and control it? Or do they come out firing trying to keep up? Where last week, we had confidence that the Bills could follow either approach, I’m not sure the 49ers can keep up, although CMC’s presence should open things up for the rest of the offense.

You’ve got to answer that question first. For me, Vegas knows. Third highest total with the closest spread of the week (we won’t count DEN vs NYJ). We should take note that this is also a closer spread than the Bills and Chiefs last week – last week we had more confidence in a Bills win and higher spread, this week it’s reasonable to think points can be scored from both sides and the game could turn into a shootout. I’ll also, as always, consider ownership when deciding if and how to target this game. We already know the Seahawks offense has very high ownership, so that may present an opportunity here, especially knowing we can basically ignore the running games for each team.

It’s looking like Deebo is expected to be popular, same logic as Lamb, only in a stack. He’s always in play, but I would expect CMC to get mixed in some and take some of Deebo’s rushing upside. Aiyuk is relatively low owned with the public likely not wanting to chase points and figuring Deebo is due. Deebo’s only hit 3x once this year, with the other five games being pretty big disappointments. Aiyuk has been equally disappointing, but he gets the salary advantage this week. The best way to play this is probably going to Kittle who, sensing a trend, has also been a disappointment this year.

If going to Kittle, we have to consider whether we want to play Kelce instead. They’re projected for similar ownership, so we might just take the discount and go down to Kittle. We could keep the discount rolling and pair him with Garoppolo and tiny ownership, or pay up a bit more and play Mahomes naked or paired with someone other than Kelce. A Mahomes + Kittle stack is exactly the type of weird stack you see end up winning sometimes. Should note though, that both JuJu and Valdez-Scantling are projected to come in at very low ownership as well. I’d be more inclined to add MVS.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Mahomes + Kittle

Mahomes + Kittle + MVS

Garoppolo + Samuel + Kelce

Garoppolo + MVS + Kittle

Mahomes + Kelce + Kittle (could be the rare week where two TEs are viable)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Mahomes

Kelce

Kittle

Aiyuk

MVS

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Jeff Wilson Jr.

CMC

Mahomes + Moore + Kittle

Cincinnati Bengals *	Atlanta Falcons	-6.5(-110)	-275	27	47.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00
Atlanta Falcons	Cincinnati Bengals *	6.5(-110)	225	20.5	47.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00

Just when I credited the public with not wanting to chase points, I see Chase projected for pretty high ownership. Now, this is probably just normal good-play ownership, but still. Chase is popular. Higgins in popular. Mixon, who I was hoping would be sneakier, is very popular. Hayden Hurst is a nice pivot away from those players. There’s all sorts of good ownership at TE since Dulcich is projected as the highest owned TE. No thanks. This may be a week to not get cute and just play Kelce or Kittle (or Andrews, but more on him later).

Seeing the Chiefs offense, with low ownership, sandwiched between the Bengals and Seahawks high ownership, makes me even more likely to lean KC.

I was passing on the Bengals and Saints game last week and the Bengals produced some tourney-winners. But, that aside, I’ll pass on this game as well given the high ownership and chance that everyone gets involved, but no one player dominates, like Chase did last week. If going here, attack it with a full passing stack though, and you can be unique by not using any Atlanta players.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Burrow + Higgins + Hurst

Mixon + Bengals DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Mixon

Chase

Higgins

Hurst

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Mariota + Mixon + Pitts

Burrow + Mixon + Chase

Burrow + Chase + Higgins

Las Vegas Raiders *	Houston Texans	-7(-110)	-300	26.25	45.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:05
Houston Texans	Las Vegas Raiders *	7(-110)	240	19.25	45.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:05

Josh Jacobs. This article is about DFS, but I sure hope you read our Week 5 Trade Hub article and went out and got Josh Jacobs. It’s only been two weeks since that article, but he’s put up 32 and 27.8 since then and he’s in another really nice spot this week. He’s not sneaking up on anyone anymore though and he’s projected to be the highest owned RB of the week. Whenever an RB gets up to 25% or more ownership – and they’re not a chalk value option – it’s almost an instant fade for me. Or, a player I’ll only use in a unique stack. Carr + Jacobs or Jacobs + Adams. Adams is top-ten in WR ownership, coming off his best game of the year and coming out of the bye. The logic says keep running the ball with Jacobs, the ownership softly says play Adams. The ownership also says, slightly louder, play Renfrow. You could play a Carr + Adams + Renfrow or Jacobs + Renfrow. Or even Adams + Renfrow, banking on your QB – someone like Mahomes or Jackson – outscoring Carr, but the Raiders still putting up points through the passing game.

On the Houston side, Pierce is too popular for me this week and his price is pretty high, although warranted given his performance and role. In theory you could come back with Cooks or Collins, I’m just not loving those plays this week. If going there, Collins is way better considering ownership. And, similar to Mixon, you could just go with Jacobs + Raiders DEF.

Moreau is in play but relatively popular and I’d much rather go to some of the other TEs.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jacobs + Adams

Jacobs + Renfrow

Carr + Adams

Carr + Adams + Renfrow

Carr + Adams + Collins/Cooks

Jacobs + Raiders DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jacobs

Adams

Renfrow

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Mills + Jacobs + Cooks/Collins

Carr + Jacobs + Moreau

Carr + Adams/Renfrow + Moreau

Carr + Pierce + Adams

Jacksonville Jaguars *	New York Giants	-3(-110)	-160	23	43	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00
New York Giants	Jacksonville Jaguars *	3(-110)	135	20	43	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00

Barkley or bust. That’s about it. I don’t have a lot of interest in this game. You could go Barkley + Engram (revenge game?) if you want, but with Barkley’s shoulder banged up, I’ll probably skip this game completely. You could go to Jones playing the idea that the try to ease the load on Barkley.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Barkley + Engram

Barkley + Giants DEF

Lawrence + Barkley + Engram

Jones + Robinson

Tennessee Titans *	Indianapolis Colts	-2.5(-110)	-145	22.25	42	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00
Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans *	2.5(-110)	120	19.75	42	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00

Man, I really want to play Henry. He hasn’t had any Henry games yet this year. He’s had a lot of Henry first halves, but they just can’t seem to keep it going into the second half where we’re used to seeing Henry break off his big runs. Still, some of my early builds have had leftover salary, essentially letting me get Henry at a discount and at depressed ownership since Jacobs and Mixon are so popular. The last time these two played we even threw in some Taylor + Henry lineups, but I’ll give Taylor another week to heal. If we do get a Henry game, we can throw in someone like Pierce on the other side, but you don’t have to force a Colts player in.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Henry + Pierce

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Henry

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Barkley + Engram

Barkley + Giants DEF

Green Bay Packers	Washington Commanders *	-4.5(-115)	-225	23	41.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00
Washington Commanders *	Green Bay Packers	4.5(-105)	180	18.5	41.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00

I went into the week wanting to target a Packers bounce-back and a Washington passing attack “managed” better with Heinicke. Lazard is getting TDs and could either be due for a two-TD game or due to regress to a 0-TD game. Doubs is getting targets and could get some TDs. Doubs is a bit more popular, making Lazard the better play, not considering salary. My main interest in this game though is either Rodgers + Jones or just Jones. Jones is relatively popular this week with a falling price tag. He’s had a lot of busts, but we’ve seen Jones get some big games with some passing TDs before. A Rodgers + Jones stack is really nice leverage, with Rodgers, despite his ridiculously low price tag, still being way down the ownership list. Rodgers, even in bad games, has been pretty consistent. Now, that consistency has been only about 2.5x his salary this week, but it’s not a stretch to imagine him bumping that up by 5 or 6 points. And I like adding McLaurin on the other side as Heinicke has some history of targeting him.

All that said, the game environment isn’t great, but the spread isn’t huge. We’re betting on Vegas having the total wrong and Heinicke keeping it competitive. If Zach Wilson can do it…

Brian Robinson actually has the best matchup on the Commander’s side and is looking to be pretty low owned. We might see them lean into him, especially after watching Hall last week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Rodgers + Jones

Rodgers + Lazard + McLaurin

Rodgers + Jones + Doubs/Lazard + McLaurin

Rodgers + Robinson + Lazard/Doubs

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jones

Lazard

Doubs

Robinson

McLaurin

Tonyan

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Heinicke + Jones + McLaurin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers *	-13(-110)	-700	26.25	39.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00
Carolina Panthers *	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13(-110)	500	13.25	39.5	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 01:00

Not much to say here. Bucs should crush the Panthers. Will they do it through Fournette or through Angry-Brady? At some point that narrative must die… is it now just old-Brady? But this week, Fournette is one of the most popular RBs of the week, so easy to pivot to Brady and the passing game. Mike Evans is projected to be lower owned than players like Robert Woods and DJ Moore and is just slightly higher than Courtland Sutton. I don’t know about you, but I’ll take Evans of that group. Of course, that doesn’t consider salary. Put another way, would you rather bet on Evans getting 23 points or Woods getting 18 or Sutton getting 21? I’ll take Evans.

You could mix and match WRs with Brady and even add Cade Otton if Brate is out. Godwin is projected for more ownership, so I’ll stick to Evans. I’m also fine with Evans as a stand-alone play to fill out your lineups.

On the Panthers side, you can take a flier on Foreman or Hubbard. I prefer Foreman, but I’m willing to wait a week and see what happens since the matchup is terrible. Still, a potential starter – although stated in a committee – at a bench price is attractive. You can also take a flier on DJ Moore simply for the volume, but I’m just going to stay away from all things Panthers this week. Given that, the Bucs DEF is also in play and should be the most popular option this week. You could go Brady + Evans + Bucs DEF to get a little unique and get some ownership leverage.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Brady + Evans

Fournette + Bucs DEF

Brady + Evans + Bucs DEF

Brady + Evans + Godwin

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Evans

Fournette

Godwin

Bucs DEF

Otton (if Brate out)

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Brady + Foreman + Evans

Brady + Evans + Moore

Walker + Hubbard + Evans

Walker + Fournette + Moore

Gage

Perriman

Miller

Denver Broncos *	New York Jets	-1(-110)	-115	19.5	38	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:05
New York Jets	Denver Broncos *	1(-110)	-105	18.5	38	Sun, Oct 23, 2022 04:05

Should we even bother? Somehow, the Jets, after dismantling Green Bay last week are a one-point underdog (only because they’re on the road) to the Broncos. This is a pitiful total, but a tight spread… so you’re saying there’s a chance?! I may skip this game just so I don’t have to keep all the Wilson’s straight.

Breece Hall is playable, I guess. I won’t be playing Dulcich, even at min-price. He still needs to get to 12 points to pay off. That’s 4 grabs, 40 yards, and a TD. Could happen, but I’ll pass. The Jets DEF is worth consideration after what they did to Green Bay. On that note, the Denver DEF is viable too.

As ugly as this game appears, this is one of the most likely spots to completely surprise if a TON of things go right. Play a Jets passing game stack. Play Melvin Gordon who could get the squeaky wheel treatment. If everyone is so high on Dulcich, play Wilson + Sutton or Jeudy instead.  

UPDATE: R Wilson is out. Rypien is in. Bump up Jets DEF. Bump up Gordon.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hall

Jets DEF

Broncos DEF

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

R Wilson + Sutton + Jeudy

R Wilson + Hall + Jeudy

Z Wilson + Gordon + G Wilson

The Lineup Build

With no really great game environments, but two spots getting a lot of the ownership, this is similar to last week but perhaps a bit more balanced. I’ll have some of my usual game stacks but my main lineup will probably be more balanced with some unique mini-stacks.

FD

I’ve been playing around with Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, and Jackson. I’m locking in Elliott + Cowboys DEF. I’m starting with Jones at RB and Kittle at TE. I want to go Mahomes naked to pair with Kittle. I’ll add Walker at RB and pair with Williams at WR. I can add McLaurin opposite Jones. That doesn’t leave much money, with only Skyy Moore looking somewhat viable in that range, which would actually give Mahomes a stacking partner. Berrios fits, and should have more value with Elijah Moore sitting out, but we know that game environment is terrible. Could take a shot on Perriman or Miller getting involved somehow since we’re not getting Evans into this roster. Moore seems like the best option here giving Mahomes at QB.

Play around with dropping down to Rodgers or Brady and see what you like. You can also break up some of those mini-stacks or move down to Robinson at RB and move up at WR.

DK

Starting with Elliott + Cowboys DEF again. Adding Walker at RB, with Everett at TE. I’ll go with Rodgers + Doubs here, adding McLaurin. Adding Evans. Flex has a few possibilities, but I’ll add Lazard getting to a full Rodgers stack. It’s not as balanced as I intended, but there are some other flex options you can play with. And can play around with QB as well, moving up to Brady if you prefer.

You can get to Mahomes naked with Elliott and Jacobs. Evans. Adding Cooper + Duvernay. And you can round out your flex with Moreau giving you a unique mini-stack with Jacobs and Moreau.

Yahoo

Always more clear value plays on Yahoo. Mixon, Elliott, and Brian Robinson stand out. I’ll add Allen Lazard. I’ll add Kittle, with Mahomes. I’ll add Cowboys DEF. I’ll stack MVS with Mahomes. And I can add Adams at WR. There’s a lot of room on this lineup if you drop down from either Mahomes or Adams. Can basically fit any other high-priced player you want.