DFS Building Blocks – Week 6

SUNDAY UPDATE: There’s talk of Henderson splitting carries today. I’ve never loved him, but my interest is really only when paired with the Rams DEF, banking on some short-fields and easy TDs for Henderson. Both are very popular plays this week, which makes me more willing to take a shot on White + Bucs DEF. I’ll still have some Henderson + Rams DEF though.

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We talked about having the exact same writeup for the Bills and Bucs last week, noting that both teams could choose to run or pass to build up their lead. We settled on Singletary + Bills DEF and it was the passing game that scored. On the Bucs side, we started the week with Fournette more popular than the passing game, so we chose to target Brady. As the games neared though, Brady and the Bucs passing game picked up ownership. Two examples where we probably should have adjusted our plans based on ownership. With a 50/50 chance of run or pass for the Bucs, when the passing game picked up popularity we should have swapped back to Fournette. Similarly, we liked Singletary when we expected him to be unpopular, but he too picked up popularity and we should have moved off of him. Because we did have Singletary and the Bills DEF in FD, we did end up a lot of exposure to Gabe Davis instead on DK, which was nice. Anyway, another reminder that when we have two players with similar chance at a big score, or two games or strategies with similar probability, we should be using ownership as our tiebreaker. On to week 6.

Initial Reactions

We’ve had some big games and some clear chalk situations this year, but none like week 6. It’s very clear what the public will do this week, which gives us some very clear ways to get unique.

1. Ken Walker and Eno Benjamin chalk, which leaves plenty of room to load up on the Bills and Chiefs game. You can expect an Allen + Walker + Benjamin + Diggs + Kelce stack to be highly owned. Followed by some iterations led by Mahomes.
2. We can get unique by attacking the Bills and Chiefs differently than the public will. Enter (again) Devin Singletary. We’ve liked him this year for his role in the passing game and this is a game where we should expect more passing volume for Singletary. And, after last week’s dud, he shouldn’t have nearly the ownership he did last week. That’s what we like to see. An Allen + Singletary stack should be unique enough to give us leverage and still take advantage of the good chalk.
3. Overstack the chalk by adding Murray + Ertz or Brown to Eno Benjamin. Or Smith + Penny + Lockett, but I’d rather have the Arizona side.
4. If you’re really bold you can build a lineup that completely fades Walker and Benjamin and features two premium RBs. Walker and Benjamin are both good chalk options this week, so I would only do this in lottery-pick lineups. Big leverage if things swing the right way though.

I could end the article here this week, but let’s dig in and see what else we can learn.

Game Overviews

Kansas City Chiefs *	Buffalo Bills	2.5(-105)	120	25.75	54	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 04:25
Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs *	-2.5(-115)	-145	28.25	54	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 04:25

As expected, we see the Bills and Chiefs with one of the highest projected totals of the year and almost four points higher than any other game. Coincidentally, that other game is the Cardinals and Seahawks, featuring our to chalk RBs in Walker and Benjamin.

My general tendency when approaching these type of games, even before considering ownership, is that they usually don’t live up to the hype. I may make a purely chalk lineup and attack this game in one of my lineups, but I definitely want one that mostly skips this game too.

I do expect the Bills to control this game and win making any Bills stack viable. But if the Chiefs do keep up the game is much more likely to shootout, and you could see Mahomes + Singletary + Kelce pay off. Your guess is as good as mine on whether any Chiefs WRs can step up. I don’t mind taking a flier on “the Chiefs have been building Skyy Moore up for this moment.” Maybe they make an effort to get him involved in some gadget stuff. He hasn’t put up numbers to justify playing him, but none of the Chiefs WRs really have. And it gives us a unique way to target this game. Should note, at this point, Allen is the most popular QB as expected and Mahomes is super (and shockingly) low.

On the Bills side, I’ll let ownership determine where I go. With value RBs available, Diggs should eat up the ownership. At this point, Gabe Davis is surprisingly low owned and McKenzie is extremely low owned. An Allen + Singletary + McKenzie lineup is a pretty solid way to attack the best game in a unique way.

If Mahomes continues to project for tiny ownership (which I don’t expect), I’ll happily start with Mahomes + Singletary + Kelce. In a normal week, we’d target the RB from the favorite and the QB + WR/TE from the underdog. That’s Mahomes + Singletary + Kelce.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Allen + Singletary + McKenzie

Mahomes + Singletary + Kelce

Allen + Diggs + Kelce                                                                                         

Mahomes + Diggs + Kelce

Allen + Singletary + McKenzie + Moore

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Allen

Diggs

Singletary

Kelce

Davis

McKenzie

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Singletary + Bills DEF

Mahomes + WR + WR + Diggs/Davis/Mckenzie

CEH + Chiefs DEF

Seattle Seahawks *	Arizona Cardinals	2.5(-110)	120	24	50.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 04:05
Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks *	-2.5(-110)	-145	26.5	50.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 04:05

This game features our two biggest chalk RBs we’ve had all year in Walker and Benjamin. Walker was really hyped coming into the year and now has the job with Penny out. Benjamin made a name for himself in the preseason and earned himself a roster spot and snaps and now he’s get a shot with Conner out. Benjamin was drafted on a few of my season-long rosters as a potential PPR fill-in, so I’m excited to see him get a shot here.

As I talked about in the intro we want to overstack this game. Not only is this a good game environment, 50+ points and only a 2.5 point spread but it’s a nice way to get leverage on all the other rosters that will be playing Walker and Benjamin. I like adding Murray and Brown or Ertz to Benjamin and starting my lineup with this game stack. Arizona is surprisingly good against WRs so I don’t have a lot of interest in the Seattle WRs, but would prefer Lockett if going there.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Walker + Benjamin

Murray + Walker + Benjamin + Brown/Ertz

Smith + Walker + Benjamin + Lockett

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Walker

Benjamin

Brown

Ertz

Dissly

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Any Geno or Murray stack that fades both chalk RBs.

Murray + Walker + Brown + Ertz

Smith + Lockett + Brown + Dissly

Smith + Benjamin + Lockett + Metcalf

Walker + Seahawks DEF

Benjamin + Cardinals DEF

Pittsburgh Steelers *	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9.5(-110)	340	18.25	46	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Pittsburgh Steelers *	-9.5(-110)	-450	27.75	46	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

We can just copy our writeup from the Bucs vs Falcons last week or from the Bills vs Steelers this week. I like going to Brady + Evans + Godwin after Fournette got all the work last week, but you could just as easily go to Founette + Bucs DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Brady + Evans + Godwin

Fournette + Bucs DEF

Brady + Evans + Godwin + Bucs DEF

White + Bucs DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Evans

Godwin

Brady

Pickens

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Pickett + Evans + Pickens

New York Giants *	Baltimore Ravens	6(-110)	200	19.75	45.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
Baltimore Ravens	New York Giants *	-6(-110)	-250	25.75	45.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

Saquon is back. We get lots of things wrong – that’s the nature of fantasy football – but we sure do like when we get things right, especially when it’s not a popular opinion. You’re Blueprint people, so we don’t mind a brag here and there when it’s just us talking, especially in the smiling face of a Facebook troll.

It’s all Barkley all the time for the Giants and that should continue this week. There is some risk of the Giants not having anything remotely resembling a WR corps to keep the Ravens defense honest, but even knowing it’s going to be Barkley all game long, the Ravens may not be able to stop it.

On the other side, Andrews keeps tearing it up. We like premium TEs in seson-long and value TEs in DFS, but Andrews is hitting another level with his usage on the Ravens. No reason not to target Andrews here at what could be lower ownership with Kelce and Ertz in popular games. I also like targeting Dobbins trying to get ahead of his usage increasing. I probably wouldn’t stack this game up, but Barkley + Andrews is a nice mini-stack.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Barkley + Andrews

Jackson + Barkley + Andrews

Dobbins + Baltimore DEF

Barkley + Duvernay

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley

Andrews

Duvernay

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Jones + Dobbins + WR + WR

Jones + WR + WR + Andrews

Miami Dolphins *	Minnesota Vikings	3.5(-115)	135	21	45.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
Minnesota Vikings	Miami Dolphins *	-3.5(-105)	-165	24.5	45.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

Our DK stack of Cousins + Jefferson was a nice core last week. And Jefferson is in another nice spot and should be low owned again with all the focus on the Bills and Chiefs. This is a great example of a player who is equally (at least) likely to put up a big game as Diggs but is coming in at a lot lower ownership. It makes it a lot easier to pivot to a different Bills WR when you know you can get the same production from Jefferson at lower ownership. Thielen’s two-TD game is coming sometime and we’ll keep sprinkling him into our lineups. His price usually makes him a nice final piece to our lineups. Cook was really chalky last week and hit his value, but I’ll fade him again this week with Mattison continuing to be involved.

Hill and Waddle are always in play but I’ll be fading them this week. I don’t hate a Jefferson + Hill mini-stack if it fits in your lineup, but I won’t be prioritizing it.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cousins + Jefferson + Hill

Cook + Vikings DEF (has to be mentioned with a rookie third string QB starting for the Dolphins)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jefferson

Hill

Waddle

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Thompson + Hill + Waddle + Jefferson

Jefferson + Mostert

Green Bay Packers *	New York Jets	-7.5(-105)	-350	26.25	45	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
New York Jets	Green Bay Packers *	7.5(-115)	260	18.75	45	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

A game between two teams that have been all over the place. We’ve seen Doubs put up a big game and we may start to see other Packers WRs putting it together, but no real consistency. Could just lean on the running game here. The Jets have some Ferraris in the receiving corps but Zach Wilson is putting a banana in the tailpipe. Still, this could be a game that sees the Packers take a quick lead and the Jets getting a ton of passing volume. They’d rather lean on Hall though. This is a game I’ll mostly be staying away from, outside of lottery-pick lineups.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jones

G Wilson

Moore

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Wilson + Jones + Wilson/Moore

Jones + Packers DEF

Rodgers + Hall + Lazard + Doubs

Atlanta Falcons *	San Francisco 49ers	5.5(-110)	200	19.5	44.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
San Francisco 49ers	Atlanta Falcons *	-5.5(-110)	-250	25	44.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

Another game to skip. We’ve seen some success and some failure when targeting the Falcons with our DEF pick. This is certainly a week where we should see some success with that. Both teams want to run though and we just may not get enough play volume to make any fantasy player viable, even the DEF. If going here, Deebo is always in play for his role and ceiling.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Samuel

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Garoppolo + Samuel

Garoppolo + Allgeier + Samuel

Mariota + Allgeier + Pitts + Samuel

Wilson + SF DEF

New Orleans Saints *	Cincinnati Bengals	3(-115)	120	20	43	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
Cincinnati Bengals	New Orleans Saints *	-3(-105)	-145	23	43	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

I’ve heard the Bengals touted a lot this week, which makes sense given the outburst that the Saints and Seahawks had, but I’m still not ready to load up on either team. But this is definitely a spot that, if you’re going to target it, you should target it as a full stack. Lattimore is banged up so I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on Chase and we’ve just seen a big game from Metcalf and Lockett. Kamara makes a lot of sense on paper but he’s not getting the usage we’re used to. Mixon is getting a lot of usage and would make sense in a nontraditional QB + RB + WR stack or even an RB + DEF stack counting on the Saints coming back down to earth this week. The Saints WRs are all banged up and I don’t think we can (or should) project Hill for another monster game. Let the public go back to that one.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Chase

Mixon

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Mixon + Bengals DEF

Burrow + Mixon + Chase

Burrow + Kamara + Chase

Dalton + Kamara + Chase

Cleveland Browns *	New England Patriots	-2.5(-115)	-140	22.75	43	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
New England Patriots	Cleveland Browns *	2.5(-105)	115	20.25	43	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

I was going to start this game with a “Da doo run run” reference for all the boomers, but apparently, it’s actually “Da doo ron ron” whatever that means. Oh well, the point is that both teams want to run the ball and both teams should be able to run the ball. Chubb continues to be expensive but continues to put up points. He’s still a tough pick each week because he really needs a monster+ game to make you regret not playing him. Stevenson was chalk last week and will be somewhat chalky this week, but less so with Walker and Benjamin cheaper. Stevenson is certainly in play but he’s priced like the starter now. I’ll generally be staying away from this game all together though.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Chubb + Stevenson

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Chubb

Stevenson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Brissett + Cooper + Njoku

Brissett + Hunt + Stevenson

Zappe + Chubb + Stevenson

Chubb + CLE DEF

Stevenson + NE DEF

Indianapolis Colts *	Jacksonville Jaguars	-2(-110)	-130	22	42	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00
Jacksonville Jaguars	Indianapolis Colts *	2(-110)	110	20	42	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 01:00

It’s a weird world when a game that just weeks ago was a shutout is now only a two-point spread and it’s not like the Colts have exactly improved since then. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been a nice surprise this year – although surprise may not be the right word when they had literally nowhere to go but up after last year. Both teams have generally decent defenses so I won’t be going out of my way to target this game. Kirk is always in play for the Jags. And you could take a shot on someone like Pierce or Campbell from the Colts. Players like that are good options when you need a cheap piece to fill out your lineup. This is a type of game environment that is also ripe for lottery-pick lineups.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kirk

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Robinson

Etienne

Pierce

Campbell

Ryan + Pierce/Campbell + Kirk

Lawrence + Kirk + Pierce/Campbell

Ryan + Etienne/Robinson + Pierce/Campbell

Los Angeles Rams *	Carolina Panthers	-10(-110)	-500	25.75	41.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 04:05
Carolina Panthers	Los Angeles Rams *	10(-110)	375	15.75	41.5	Sun, Oct 16, 2022 04:05

Another game this year that looks great based on name value. Super Bowl champs vs CMC. Somehow the majorly disappointing Rams are ten-point favorites. PJ Walker is scheduled to start which actually may give the Panthers a little more firepower. I kind of like a Walker + CMC + Moore + Kupp lottery-pick lineup. That lineup featuring a cheap QB sets you up to fade the cheap RBs and go with two premium RBs giving you a super unique lineup. Or you can take the chalk RBs and spend up at your other positions. Barkley, Andrews, Jefferson perhaps. I don’t have a lot of interest in the Rams, outside of Kupp of course. It’s strange to say but it’s not surprising to hear that given how they’ve performed so far.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Kupp

Henderson

CMC (based on the potential for a coaching change getting him more work)

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Walker + CMC + Moore + Kupp

Stafford + CMC + Kupp

Henderson + Rams DEF

Stafford + Henderson + Kupp

The Lineup Build

I’ll start this week by noting that when you have one clear game environment to target and a couple of clear chalk RBs to target you can gain a lot of leverage with lottery-ticket lineups. This is a week to add a little extra (cheap) volume in some large field tournaments.

FD

I’ve settled into two main lineups, neither quite like I expected at the intro, but relatively close. Both have some chalk pieces but have enough other unique pieces or structures to gain significant leverage.

I like building around Allen + Singletary with no Chiefs players. I’m rolling with my expectation that this game may not live up to the hype and, if it does, the Bills win by a decent margin. Allen + Singletary gets me good exposure to the game and good leverage by combining them. It feels strange not adding a Chiefs player when the projected game total is 54 but this game could easily be 35 to 20 Bills. I’ll go away from the two chalk RBs we talked about (because I’ll use one in my other lineup) and instead will pay up for Barkley paired with Andrews at TE. I’m also going to be locking in Henderson + Rams DEF in both lineups. Akers is out and Henderson should benefit and while PJ Walker has performed well enough when given the opportunity, it’s still the Rams defense vs a Panthers team in disarray. I am afraid of the Panthers playing well after the coaching change, but no other defense really stands out to me unless paying up for the Bucs or 49ers (who are pretty banged up). To fill out my WRs, I’m going to use the player grid and find three WRs with a high tourney-rating, meaning they project well and have low ownership. I may end up adding McKenzie to my Bills stack here.

In my secondary lineup I’m going to stack around the MIN vs MIA game. I’ll add Benjamin but instead of also adding Walker, I’ll play Dissly (or Fant if you prefer) at TE. The Cardinals are surprisingly good against WRs, but notoriously bad against TE. They’re splitting time, but it’s one game, either one could get two TDs. I’ll be playing around with different ways to build out the rest of this lineup.

I went a little more unique above but if you just build a chalk lineup you can end up with Allen + Benjamin + Walker + Diggs + Kelce, adding Henderson + Rams, then finishing with Doubs + Moore for a nice little mini-stack.

DK

I’m going to start this section with the caveat that I’m building this with some thought of diversifying my above FD lineups.

Stevenson is more affordable on DK so I’ll start there. I’ll add Barkley + Andrews here, but, note, it’s a lot easier to drop down at TE on DK. Since I’m going to be heavy on Henderson + Rams DEF on FD I’ll move to White + Bucs DEF here. Then, since I’m already going away from the Rams DEF, I’ll add PJ Walker + DJ Moore. I can then fill it out with McKenzie + JuJu getting some exposure to that game.

If I’m ignoring my FD lineups and tweaking the above lineup, I’m dropping Andrews so I can move to Kupp at WR. I’ll drop Barkley and move to Benjamin, adding Dissly at TE. Then I can add another high-end WR like Evans or Hill.

If I’m building purely on DK and ignoring FD altogether, I’m starting with Benjamin and Stevenson. I’m going back to Henderson + Rams DEF. I’m adding Dissly. Adding Brady + Evans. And Diggs + JuJu.

You can take that lineup and move to Allen + McKenzie, then Evans + Diontae Johnson if you want to bank on Steelers’ volume. I also like playing around with the Murray + Benjamin + Brown + Dissly lineup on DK. Or Murray + Walker + Benjamin + Ertz.

Yahoo

On Yahoo, I like to focus on bang-for-my-buck. After building lineups for FD and DK, it’s easy to spot mispricing on Yahoo. Rams DEF most expensive on DK, but way down the list on Yahoo. Dissly and Fant pretty even on the other sites, but Fant the clear value on Yahoo. Benjamin and Henderson cheap at RB. Singletary a good value and exposure to the Bills. Stafford stands out as cheap so I’ll add him. Then I have plenty of mine to pay up for Kupp and can still add two premium WRs, fitting Jefferson + Waddle.

It would be pretty easy to drop Kupp at WR and move up to Allen and build around that. With the core value plays we found, you can pretty much build the rest of your lineup around any QB + WR combination you want.