DFS Building Blocks – Week 5

SUNDAY UPDATE: I’ve got two main lineups on FD. An LAC/CLE game stack and a WAS/TEN game stack. You can go a little more balanced starting with Hurts or Herbert, but I’m going full Herbert + Ekeler + Hunt + Williams + Cooper stack. I’ll either win first or last! On the other, a Wentz + Henry + McLaurin + Samuel stack opens up a lot of options. I prefer going to two premium RBs here, keeping Henry and Robinson. I’m also switching to a Stevenson + Hockenson mini stack here as I have Goedert in my other lineup. This is not an efficient lineup – Hockenson is priced too high and Robinson could be priced a little too high. This is another first-or-last bet on a couple game environments outproducing.

I’d still be very comfortable with a lineup of Hurts + Goedert and + Hunt + Williams. However you build around it, I want to get Goedert, Hunt, and Williams in my main. Then take your pick between Robinson + Jaguars DEF or Singletary (he’s gotten pretty popular) + Bills DEF.

Brady stacks have gotten pretty popular. I still want some exposure to it, but won’t be my primary. On DK, I’m sticking with my off-the-grid Cousins + Jefferson stack. Kyle Phillips, Shakir, Woods are some cheaper options you can fill out your lineups with. Njoku, Schultz, Henry, and Otton can provide help at TE. Otton is perhaps most intriguing paired with Allgeier so you can get some cheap exposure to Brady.

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I have a saying. “The GPS knows.” You’ve probably been in a situation where the GPS is telling you to drive a way that you just know isn’t right, so you ignore it and then a mile down the road you’re in standstill traffic. It knows. So does Vegas.

Last week, Seattle and Detroit was the second highest projected total and had a tight spread. That’s the makings of a lot of fantasy goodness. We liked Penny. And we highlighted a lottery-pick game stack as viable. But, in the end, with Swift out, St. Brown, and, eventually Chark getting ruled out too, I wasn’t confident going to this game. The GPS knows.

Williams (got lucky and) paid off his value, but he didn’t really crush you if you didn’t have him. But not having Hockenson crushed us. We could have looked at this situation like we did Carr + Adams + Waller, banking on extra volume with Renfrow out. But they were just missing too many pieces. Had we looked at this game in that same way and built around Goff + Williams + Hockenson and added Penny or Metcalf we would found ourselves near the top of the leaderboard. That’s DFS.

Last week I talked about lineup diversification and ended up with an Allen + Diggs lineup as my primary, so I added Singletary to a Hurts + Brown + Smith secondary lineup. I was getting multiple shots at the best game environment of the week, which is nice, unless the entire game disappoints. Had we used that same strategy with Miles Sanders in one and the Eagles passing game in the other, we also would have been set up to win a lot of money. That’s the way it goes sometimes.

A Facebook Karen recently talked about DFS as luck. Yes, we have to put ourselves in position to benefit from luck (positive variance) but I don’t like to think of it like we’re trying to get lucky. Instead, we’re making smart plays and building smart lineups and trying to avoid bad luck. If we’re playing the WR3 on a team with a low projected total, we need luck. But if we’re building around the top teams on the slate, we just need to avoid bad luck. We stacked around Hurts + Brown + Smith and Sanders got all the TDs instead. That’s bad luck. We had a Carr + Adams + Waller stack and Jacobs decided to finally score some TDs. That’s bad luck. We’ll keep building smart lineups around the best game environments and that bad luck will go away.

Initial Reactions

This week I can already tell I’m going to end up with a lot of the same players we’ve targeted this season. Hurts + Brown + Smith/Goedert is shaping up to be like Big Ben + LeVeon Bell + Antonio Brown in their heyday. They were viable every week as a stack to build around. Allen and the Bills could be similar. Reminder, most weeks we have several equally viable paths we can take. I may like Hurts, you may like Allen. You have to consider your own risk tolerance, size of contest you’re playing, etc. And, most important to me, you have to consider expected ownership. There seem to be a lot of players in the 15 to 25% range this week – some that I really like! Ownership is tricky, it’s a moving target. It will keep adjusting as we get closer to game time. Sometimes we’re trusting the expected ownership numbers, sometimes we’re following on our gut on who we think the public will like more. I’m using ownership as the tiebreaker between rosters and players I like. If player A is owned at 25% and player B is owned at 10% and they each have a similar chance of scoring, we get a big advantage by playing player B. If player A is a bust we leapfrog over 25% of the lineups in the field. We don’t need to be lucky. We need to be smart.

Game Overviews

Philadelphia Eagles	Arizona Cardinals *	-5.5(-105)	-225	27.25	49	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 04:25
Arizona Cardinals *	Philadelphia Eagles	5.5(-115)	185	21.75	49	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 04:25

A good game environment, but not what I’d consider the top game environment this week. The Eagles are near the top in implied team total but given how we’ve been able to accurately peg the Cardinals as underwhelming each week, a 5.5 point spread doesn’t seem like enough. I definitely like an Eagles passing game stack this week – not afraid of going right back to them as I don’t expect Miles Sanders to dominate again. He certainly could, but those are the decisions/risks we have to make. I’m not prioritizing a full game stack here because of the lack of talent on the Cardinals side. I could end up with just Hurts + Brown or take your pick between Brown/Smith/Goedert or just some one-off plays. If going to a full stack, I’ll let salary and the other pieces I use determine whether I add Brown, Moore, or Ertz.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Hurts + Brown

Hurts + Brown + Smith/Goedert + Moore

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hurts

Brown

Smith

Goedert

Sanders

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Hurts + Sanders + Brown/Smith/Goedert

Sanders + DEF

Murray + Sanders + Brown + Brown/Moore/Ertz

Los Angeles Chargers	Cleveland Browns *	-2.5(-110)	-135	25	47.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Cleveland Browns *	Los Angeles Chargers	2.5(-110)	110	22.5	47.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

Second highest projected total, tight spread. Sound familiar? Vegas knows. This game has potential to turn into the Seattle vs Detroit game from last week. My only hesitation, they played in a big shootout last year, too! I wouldn’t expect a full repeat of that game last year or last week’s Seattle game, but this game has a lot of potential and seems to be going overlooked.

We can attack it in a number of ways, but I’ll use ownership to drive me. Ekeler is in play. Chubb is in play, but he’s really expensive, although that has his ownership very low! Hunt is in play at a lower price and still fairly low ownership. Herbert and Williams is a great starting stack at surprisingly low ownership. You can basically take your pick on how you want to stack this game up, but I’m likely going to Herbert + Hunt + Williams, banking on additional passing volume for Hunt.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Herbert + Hunt + Williams

Herbert + Williams

Herbert + Hunt + Williams + Everett

Herbert + Ekeler + Williams

Herbert + Chubb + Williams

Hunt + Everett

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hunt

Ekeler

Williams

Everett

Chubb

Njoku

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Brissett + Hunt + Williams + Njoku

Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	Atlanta Falcons	-10(-110)	-450	28.25	46.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers *	10(-110)	350	18.25	46.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

Angry Brady? Lonely Brady? I-earned-those-miles-Brady? I doubt we’ll see any actual difference in Brady this week after news of pending divorce, but you never know. The bigger question is how do the Bucs get to nearly 30 points in this game? We’ve seen them in the past, even in games with huge spreads, get there by leaning on their passing game still, putting Brady, Evans, and Godwin all in play. We’ve also had a lot of success in the past when we’ve been able to narrow targets to just a couple WRs. I probably won’t play this in my primary lineup, but I definitely want some lineups with exposure to Brady + Evans + Godwin if Fournette is going to be 25% owned. Great example of using ownership to our advantage. That said, Brady and his WRs aren’t extremely low owned so I’m still leaning to Herbert stack for my primary. If going to Fournette, pair him with the Bucs DEF to get more leverage on the field. But beware the work Rachaad White may get in a potential blowout. In fact, White + Bucs DEF could be a nice lottery-pick stack. Allgeier on the other side is also a nice lottery-pick option, or, if you’re not going to the Bucs DEF an okay option to get a unique addition to your Brady stack, hoping he gets passing work or the Falcons can somehow keep up for a bit. For what it’s worth, Patterson put up 3.5x Allgeier’s price twice this year. Pitts is out though, making it even more likely the Bucs DEF just dominates Atlanta in all facets.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Brady + Evans + Godwin

Fournette + Bucs DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Evans

Godwin

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Brady + Evans + Godwin + Allgeier

Brady + Evans/Godwin + Otton

Mariota + Fournette + Allgeier

White + Bucs DEF

Buffalo Bills *	Pittsburgh Steelers	-14(-110)	-900	29.75	45.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Pittsburgh Steelers	Buffalo Bills *	14(-110)	600	15.75	45.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

You can re-read everything I wrote about the Bucs above, just change the player names and take out the amazing Wedding Crashers reference. Do the Bills build a lead through Allen + Diggs or does Singletary get some cheap TDs? I went into the week wanting to lock Singletary and Bills DEF thinking Singletary would continue to be sneaky, but he’s relatively popular. Still, given his low price and the extra leverage I can get by pairing him with Buffalo, I’ll likely stick to it. Fournette + Bucs DEF, Wilson + SF DEF, and Singletary + Bills DEF are all in very similar spots this week with Singletary + Bills DEF the best combination of price and ownership. And Singletary, who has been getting a surprising amount of passing work already, may get even more with Knox out. I’m staying away from the Steelers outside of a lottery-pick lineup with Pickett + Pickens + Diggs.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Singletary + Bills DEF

Allen + Diggs

Allen + Singletary + Diggs + Bills DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Singletary

Diggs

Davis

McKenzie

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Pickett + Pickens + Diggs

New Orleans Saints *	Seattle Seahawks	-4.5(-105)	-225	25	45.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Seattle Seahawks	New Orleans Saints *	4.5(-115)	180	20.5	45.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

At the risk of sleeping on Seattle again, I don’t love this game. We’ve got better spots above this game and will have better spots below this game to target. Kamara is priced lower than Mattison, but he’ll be popular because of that. But Kamara’s game log would say he’s still way too expensive this week. Does a matchup against Seattle bring out old Kamara? I’m not going to force Kamara in, would probably still rather bump up in price to Robinson at much lower ownership, which we’ll talk about in a bit. You could make a lottery-pick lineup here with the passing game or Dalton + Kamara + Olave to get leverage on the individual Kamara ownership.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Dalton + Kamara + Olave  + Lockett

Smith + Kamara + Lockett

New England Patriots *	Detroit Lions	-3(-115)	-165	24.25	45.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Detroit Lions	New England Patriots *	3(-105)	140	21.25	45.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

Run, run, run. New England playing their third-string rookie QB, who didn’t look terrible actually. But we know the path is running against Detroit. The problem is the timeshare Harris and Stevenson are in. Harris is priced higher than Kamara, but for good reason. Still, he hasn’t hit 3x his price. Stevenson is much cheaper and has hit 3x this year. I’m likely to get Stevenson in just because of the salary savings, but you never know when you’re going to get hit with a Harris 3-TD game. Both players are a little risky despite the great matchup. That said, I’ll bank on the Lions getting out to a lead and Stevenson getting more passing work. Whether we play Harris or Stevenson some of the Lions pieces are in play. Hockenson and St. Brown are viable. I’ll be staying away from Williams again, although his ownership has come back down to earth. Goff + Stevenson + St. Brown + Hockenson is a solid game stack in a game that could surprise. If you think it’s a little less explosive, I’d go to Goff + Harris + St. Brown/Hockenson and not play both Lions pass-catchers.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Harris/Stevenson + St. Brown

Goff + Stevenson + St. Brown + Hockenson

Goff + Harris + St. Brown/Hockenson

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Harris

Stevenson

St. Brown

Hockenson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Zappe + Stevenson + St. Brown/Hockenson

Miami Dolphins	New York Jets *	-3.5(-105)	-185	24.25	45	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
New York Jets *	Miami Dolphins	3.5(-115)	150	20.75	45	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

I’m not going to have much of this game, but I wouldn’t mind if you did. Even with Bridgewater at QB, it could have fireworks. Hill is always in play, but is a little banged up. So is Waddle. Take your pick on the Jets between Moore and Wilson. I’m probably not playing any individual players, unless Moore or Wilson just fits in filling out the last spot in my lineup. I’m likely targeting this as a lottery-pick lineup or a fourth lineup in a tournament if I’m willing to just throw some money at it. I’m playing it one of two ways, either Bridgewater + Hill + Waddle at reduced ownership because of their injury designations and Bridgewater at QB or building around Edmonds or Mostert in hopes they can run and stay competitive while giving Hill and Waddle a break.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hill

Moore

Wilson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Bridgewater + Hill + Waddle + Moore/Wilson

Wilson + Moore/Wilson + Hill

Edmonds + Moore/Wilson

Wilson + Edmonds + Moore/Wilson

Minnesota Vikings *	Chicago Bears	-7.5(-110)	-350	25.75	44	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings *	7.5(-110)	260	18.25	44	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

The potential of this game environment doesn’t match the ownership attached to it. Cook is cheap and that looks really attractive when building lineups, but Mattison is involved and the Vikings want to pass the ball. We could add Cooks + Vikings DEF to our list of viable RB + DEF this week but it’s the worst ownership-considered combination. I’m probably staying away unless I get to a point where Cook just naturally falls into my lineup build because of salary remaining or other pieces I’ve added. I actually Thielen for his TD-upside a nice leverage pivot from Cook and Jefferson.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cook + Vikings DEF

Cousins + Thielen

Cousins + Thielen + Smith Jr.

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Thielen

Cook

Jefferson

Vikings DEF

Irv Smith Jr.

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Jacksonville Jaguars *	Houston Texans	-7(-110)	-350	25.25	43.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars *	7(-110)	260	18.25	43.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

James Robinson is more expensive than Dalvin Cook. But, in fairness, he’s scored more than Dalvin and he’s in an equally good (better actually) matchup. This is a nice pivot away from Cook but as good as Robinson has been, he hasn’t hit 3x this price, although this is his best matchup of the year. I don’t want to force Robinson in when 3x might be his ceiling, but awfully hard to pass up at 2% ownership. We’ll see how the builds look though. One of the reasons Robinson’s ownership is low, is because Lawrence and Kirk are relatively high. Not a game environment that I want to target the passing game. Not a ton I want to target in this game overall, probably wouldn’t even add Cooks to my Robinson pick unless it just fell that way while building lineups.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Robinson + Jaguars DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Robinson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Robinson + Cooks

Mills + Robinson + Cooks

Lawrence + Pierce + Kirk

Tennessee Titans	Washington Commanders *	-1.5(-110)	-130	22.25	43	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00
Washington Commanders *	Tennessee Titans	1.5(-110)	110	20.75	43	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 01:00

Our closest game of the week with Washington expected to be playing from behind in a game that forces you to pass. Enter Carson Wentz’s game log of 29, 28, 8, 9. Washington DEF is certainly not the Cowboys or Eagles. This matchup is much closer to Jacksonville (who actually has a strong DEF) and Detroit where Wentz put up his 29 and 28. Dotson is out, meaning we can reasonably expect (barring bad luck!) McLaurin and Samuel to get some extra volume, especially with Logan Thomas also banged up. That sets up as a nice narrowed options stack like we’ve discussed before. Henry’s big game is coming, although it’s not as easy this year without AJ Brown. Burks is out this week too, but he’s got big-game potential every week and is a nice addition to this stack. The other way to look at is Washington jumps out to a lead and Woods is the Titans player that is getting all the work. Close game, with some clear options to target make this a nice lottery-pick or even a nice secondary build to target.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Wentz + Henry/Woods + McLaurin + Samuel

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

McLaurin

Samuel

Woods

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Tannehill + Woods + McLaurin/Samuel

Los Angeles Rams *	Dallas Cowboys	-5.5(-110)	-250	23.75	42	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 04:25
Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams *	5.5(-110)	200	18.25	42	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 04:25

The Rams stink. And Cooper Rush is the MVP. Well, actually, the Rams stink and the Cowboys DEF is the MVP. I know I said Vegas knows, but… this spread seems too big. Unless the Rams find their rhythm this week and Kupp just goes crazy, this feels like it should be a tight, low-scoring game. I don’t really want to target anything from this game. Kupp and Higbee are both near the tops in ownership which doesn’t feel right for a team with an implied total of only 23 points. If targeting this, I’m only playing it as a full stack. Stafford + Kupp + Higbee + Lamb/Schultz. Stafford does come with tiny ownership, making this a nice bet *if* this game outproduces.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Stafford + Kupp + Higbee + Lamb/Schultz

San Francisco 49ers	Carolina Panthers *	-6.5(-110)	-275	23	39.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 04:05
Carolina Panthers *	San Francisco 49ers	6.5(-110)	220	16.5	39.5	Sun, Oct 9, 2022 04:05

To put my Rams and Cowboys commentary in perspective, that game is only projected to be slightly better than this stinker. I already talked about Wilson Jr. + SF DEF as viable, but that’s a popular stack this week. With so many other viable RB + DEF stacks I’ll likely stay away unless price on a given site drives me back to this. No other pieces I really want from this game. You can always take a shot on Deebo or Aiyuk, or even Kittle, but I’ll pass.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Wilson Jr. + SF DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Mayfield + CMC + Wilson Jr./Samuel

The Lineup Build

FD

Still playing around with things but am working out whether to build my primary with Herbert, Hurts, or Brady. So far I’m landing on Hurts + Brown + Goedert and getting other good game exposure through Hunt + Williams and adding Singletary + Bills DEF. Then I’m playing around with the other WRs to fill out my roster. If I add Stevenson as my other RB, I can add Godwin. That fills out this roster pretty nicely, but misses the logical correlation with Stevenson. You can play around with Smith instead of Goedert and move to Hockenson, but he’s priced way up and I just don’t love it this week on FD.

Moving to a Brady based stack allows you to bump up to Cook at RB and still keep Hunt + Williams and Goedert. This lineup looks pretty solid if you’re willing to take the bet that the Bucs score through the passing game. For what it’s worth, it’s usually never a terrible idea to target Brady at low-ish ownership.

I’ll still be playing around with my starting my build with Herbert too.

DK

With pricing tighter on DK and some solid value picks available, I’m going a little off the grid and building around one premium player, Justin Jefferson. And the Cowboys DEF is very popular because of their way-too-low price, so I’m going to fade them and instead lock in my Singletary + Bills DEF here as well. I’m not ending up with any Bucs WRs so you could go to Fournette + Bucs DEF, with the pairing helping offset Fournette’s individual ownership. But, I have the Bills DEF for now, and I’m throwing in Allgeier at a pretty low price hoping for a lot of passing work with Pitts out. I’m still playing around with the rest, but if I’m already fading the Cowboys DEF I’m adding the forgotten (maybe for good reason) Allen Robinson. You could definitely build around Stafford + Kupp here instead of Cousins + Jefferson. I’ll keep playing with that option as well. Hockenson + Stevenson is a much more palatable stack on DK.

Yahoo

With Yahoo always having some pricing mismatches, I like looking for the best values first, then building around them. Fournette stands out here, so I’m starting with Fournette + Bucs DEF. Everett stands out at TE so I add him. That puts me down the road of moving to Herbert + Williams + Everett and adding Hunt. Kamara seems reasonable here as well so I’ll get my exposure to him on Yahoo. Then I can add Metcalf or Lockett. I’m left with a number of WR options. Can go McLaurin or Samuel, can go Davis since no other Bills exposure here. Can go down to Thielen. Going to keep tinkering, but some solid builds available on Yahoo.