DFS Building Blocks – Week 4

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: I was already high on Penny + SEA DEF and am even higher now that Chark is out for the Lions. The public is going to be all over Jamaal Williams, and probably Hockenson too, so I’ll take the double leverage with Penny and SEA DEF. I’m still locking in Elliot + Cowboys DEF on FanDuel, but am sprinkling in Penny + SEA DEF where I can. But on DraftKings, Penny is simply too cheap so I’m making that my priority RB + DEF stack there.

Renfrow is out again so we have another situation where Carr + Adams + Waller is pretty attractive. It doesn’t trump our Hurts and Allen stacks, but makes a nice core for your third lineups. Most people are tending to lean toward Russell Wilson for sentimental reasons, so take the other side against the tougher DEF as a way to differentiate.

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We talked about all the good spots for fantasy last week and 90% of that chalk may have been a bust! That’s what we want to see. We build our lineups to take advantage when the chalk does bust. Now, there were so many busts, that some of our lineups were busts too, but we put ourselves in position.

I had three primary lineups. Our Flacco CIN/NYJ stack. Our Carr + Adams + Waller + Taylor + Henry stack. And a chalk stack with Hurts + Brown. The Hurts + Brown stack made enough money to break even on the day and had Kupp and Ertz hit their value it would have been a $40,000 winner. We were in position with a half of football to play – sucks when you see your players, especially studs like Kupp, slow down so much in the second half. But we’ll keep putting ourselves in position. The Raiders stack with Henry also raced out to a big lead but, as we guessed, in the end the game wasn’t as high scoring as we needed it to be. It had a ton of potential though had a few of them grabbed one more TD.

Let’s talk about what we can learn from those three lineups though. You’ve heard me talk in the past about diversifying your player pool AND your lineup builds. Meaning, if you have three lineups you may not want to make each one a Carr + Adams stack. You may not want any player to be found in all three. Sometimes I’ll do that if the value is there or I feel strongly, but it hurts when one player busts and tanks all your lineups. That’s the player side, which we’ll talk about more in a minute.

The lineup build side is when I like to build a balanced lineup, a lottery pick lineup where I’m maximizing ownership leverage (trying to build around players with tiny ownership levels), and a chalk lineup with some smart pivots. That’s generally the way I approach lineup diversification. Occasionally, if I like a single stack a lot, I’ll build a bunch of lineups with that core stack, and just mix and match supporting players. But that’s rare.

So how did I land on that Hurts lineup? I wanted to build a chalk lineup, which on the surface would have been a MIN/DET stack but I already had Jefferson and Swift in another lineup. I was taking a shot on Sanders + Eagles DEF in one lineup, so as a hedge against that play, it made sense to go to Hurts + Brown. It’s not likely that BOTH of those lineups would have cashed, but I was maximizing my chance at hitting on the actual game script and putting myself in position to win 1^st. This is a good time for our annual reminder – if you’re not first, you’re last. We’re not playing to just cash lineups (although that is nice) we’re playing to win 1^st. We’re not trying to build three average lineups; we’re trying to find one really good one.

On to Week 4.

First Reactions

Last week we had a lot of places to target, this week not as much. There are a lot of so-so games. As I do a quick first glance the only QB I actually feel like playing (I’m sure I’ll find my way to more) is Allen.

That CAR/ARI game also looks like a nice spot to load up on CMC (who is now hurt). And I can’t seem to quit Elijah Moore as that PIT/NYJ looks good for a Harris + Moore stack. But, Harris + Steelers DEF also looks attractive. Barkley + Giants DEF looks solid too.

This could be a week to stick to a BUF/BAL stack and find a ton of ways to mix and match the supporting players. But let’s see what else we can find first.

If we go to our Betting Odds page we can see BUF/BAL with the highest over/under and a pretty close spread. If it’s our target with a quick glance, it’s going to be the public’s target too.

Game Overviews

Baltimore Ravens *	Buffalo Bills	3.5(-110)	155	24.25	52	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Buffalo Bills	Baltimore Ravens *	-3.5(-110)	-190	27.75	52	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

Popular as expected. We’ve got a few options here. Go pure chalk and play Allen + Diggs + Andrews. Or go with QB + RB + WR with Allen + Singletary + Diggs (or go against the grain even more and play Davis or McKenzie instead of Diggs). Or, this play is a little risker, just go with a Buffalo stack and don’t bring back any Ravens players. In that scenario, it’s not difficult to see the Allen + Singletary + WR stack paying off in a game that the Bills dominate, and not allowing any Ravens player to put up a monster score.

This game is all about your lineup build diversification and your risk tolerance. Can go pure chalk. Can play a full game overstack. Can take bits and pieces. Can take a total contrarian pivot and just play Singletary at tiny ownership (that’s always my favorite, but I tend to take on more risk than most).

Diggs is due for a little bounce back but the matchups actually favor the other WRs and Knox. The Bills are a tough matchup for Lamar, so it’s not unreasonable to see a letdown this week. We might see 80 total points but we might also see something like 35 to 17 Bills. Or even 27 to 17 Bills. I’ll be leaning to one chalk build with a game stack here and one other primary build that features just Singletary and builds around a different game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Allen + Singletary + McKenzie

Allen + Diggs + Andrews

Allen + Singletary + Diggs

Jackson + Singletary + Andrews

Jackson + Diggs + Andrews

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Allen

Diggs

Singletary

McKenzie

Knox

Andrews

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Dobbins

Jackson + Bateman + Duvernay

Jackson + Singletary/Diggs/McKenzie/Knox + Bateman + Duvernay

Detroit Lions *	Seattle Seahawks	-3.5(-110)	-200	25.75	48	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Seattle Seahawks	Detroit Lions *	3.5(-110)	165	22.25	48	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

What is this game doing up here? Relatively tight spread. Second highest projected total. Has the whole world gone crazy?

We have to start with Swift out and St. Brown out. That means it’s time for Jamaal Williams chalk. He’s been in this role in the past, but this week he’s actually priced for the starting job. I’ve successfully faded him at much lower prices in the past and I’m very confident in fading him this week at his higher price. I’m generally off the Lions completely this week given the injuries. That said, Hockenson could benefit from the injuries and Chark and Josh Reynolds could get a boost.

I’ve actually found my way to Penny + Seattle DEF on a few early lineups but there is an RB + DEF combo I like even more later. If the game does get to the total projected Metcalf and Lockett would be nice individual pieces.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Penny + SEA DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Penny

Hockenson

Metcalf

Lockett

Chark

Reynolds

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Williams + Lions DEF

Smith + Penny + Metcalf/Lockett

Goff + Metcalf/Lockett + Hockenson/Chark/Reynolds

Cleveland Browns	Atlanta Falcons *	-1(-110)	-120	24	47	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Atlanta Falcons *	Cleveland Browns	1(-110)	100	23	47	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

Third highest total and only a one-point spread. This feels like a game no one wants to touch but also feels like Chubb vs the Jets a couple weeks ago where he put up three TDs. In any given week you have to decide whether you want to bank on Chubb’s TD upside or you’re banking on Hunt being involved enough that neither put up a monster game. With Chubb being priced at the top this week, I’m more willing to fade him for some cheaper options (although his ownership is really low). Even Patterson on the other side is potentially more attractive for the salary, but he’s banged up. This is likely a game I’ll avoid all together, but if you wanted to trust the Vegas odds and build your lottery-pick lineup around this game, that would be perfectly fine. For what it’s worth, Mariota has pretty high ownership this week, making it easy for me to fade him and the Falcons, although his price is low (thus the high ownership). A Mariota + Chubb + Pitts stack is a nice lottery-pick lineup core.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Pitts

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Chubb + CLE DEF

Mariota + Chubb + Pitts/London

Hunt

Brissett + Hunt + Jones + Pitts

Brissett + Patterson + Jones + Njoku

Philadelphia Eagles *	Jacksonville Jaguars	-6.5(-110)	-275	26	45.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Jacksonville Jaguars	Philadelphia Eagles *	6.5(-110)	220	19.5	45.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

This is an interesting spot. My first reaction is Eagles DEF vs the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. And hopefully that’s everyone’s first reaction because, in reality, the Jaguars are playing okay. There is at least a chance that they can put up enough points to push the Eagles into actually trying to score points the entire game. Even if they don’t, we called for Sanders + Eagles DEF last week against Washington and it was still Hurts + Brown that was the play to make. Same situation this week, it’s easy to look back to Hurts + Brown playing against a team that *should* put up more of a fight than Washington did. You can go to Hurts alone or Hurts + Brown alone or can add Etienne or Jones to the other side if you think they can really push the game some. Etienne is my preferred option because even though Robinson is the primary back, Etienne has a path to points whether playing from behind or ahead. It appears, as of Saturday, that the Eagles offense is surprisingly low owned in a game where they have the second highest implied team total. That’s a great game theory opportunity for us, which may push me toward the Hurts stack and adding Singletary from the Bills game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Hurts + Etienne + Brown

Hurts + Brown

Hurts + Brown + Smith/Goedert

Hurts + Etienne + Brown + Smith/Goedert

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Hurts

Brown

Smith

Goedert

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Sanders + Eagles DEF

Hurts + Sanders

Lawrence + Sanders + Jones/Etienne

Las Vegas Raiders *	Denver Broncos	-2.5(-115)	-150	24	45.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 04:25
Denver Broncos	Las Vegas Raiders *	2.5(-105)	125	21.5	45.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 04:25

This is another interesting spot. Surely the Raiders will win a game sometime. Surely Russell Wilson will look better sometime. They can’t both win this week, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Russ cook and the Raiders win. That could turn into a high-scoring game. The Broncos DEF scares me enough that I don’t want to build around this game in my primary lineup but I could see adding a couple pieces in a mini-stack. And I could see a full build focusing on either the Broncos or the Raiders in a lottery-pick lineup. It will feel pretty silly to be looking at the million dollar winner with Adams on his lineup and not on ours. That said, from an ownership perspective, my preferred play from the Raiders side is Waller again. And, from the Broncos side, Jeudy.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jeudy + Waller

Jeudy + Adams

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Adams

Jeudy

Waller

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Carr + Adams + Waller + Jeudy

Wilson + Jeudy + Adams/Waller

Williams/Gordon

Wilson + Williams + Jeudy + Adams/Waller

Los Angeles Chargers	Houston Texans *	-6(-110)	-250	25.5	45	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Houston Texans *	Los Angeles Chargers	6(-115)	200	19.5	45	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

Not a lot to see here. Houston playing okay. Chargers banged up still. Can always take a shot on some individual players like Ekeler, especially with Herbert banged up and the Chargers favored by 6.5. You can bring back Cooks on the other side. But, I’ll generally be off of this game.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Ekeler

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Ekeler + Cooks

Carolina Panthers *	Arizona Cardinals	-1(-110)	-115	22.25	43.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 04:05
Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers *	1(-110)	-105	21.25	43.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 04:05

This was feeling like the potential blowup spot of the week and, it’s the NFL, so who knows maybe it will be, but with CMC banged up I’ll mostly avoid this game. It’s still a good spot for a lottery-pick lineup built around Murray or even Mayfield + Moore. But Moore is pretty popular already with CMC hurt so not a lot of leverage for us there. We never really prefer Mayfield, but we definitely don’t prefer him with less weapons. And, like the Broncos, the Cardinals haven’t shown us much. They have potential every game to put up points, but there are better options this week outside of our lottery-pick lineup.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Murray + Brown + Moore

Murray + Brown + Dortch/Ertz

Conner + Cardinals DEF

Mayfield + Moore + Brown

Indianapolis Colts *	Tennessee Titans	-3.5(-110)	-185	23.25	43	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Tennessee Titans	Indianapolis Colts *	3.5(-110)	150	19.75	43	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

This feels like an old-fashioned running game battler. Henry and Taylor. Taylor and Henry. You can pick either side and hope they blow up or, my favorite in these scenarios, play them both. We built a lineup last week with Taylor and Henry (but they weren’t playing each other). It’s usually not a likely game script where both RBs put up big games, but, in this case, if this games turns out to be high scoring it will likely be BECAUSE of the RBs. If I’m building a cheaper lottery-pick lineup, this wouldn’t be a bad pairing to add, making a lineup that no one will have! If you’re not first, you’re last.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Taylor

Henry

Pierce

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Taylor + Henry

Ryan + Taylor + Pittman

Tannehill + Henry + Burks

Ryan + Henry + Pierce + Campbell

Campbell

Pittsburgh Steelers *	New York Jets	-3.5(-105)	-185	22.5	41.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers *	3.5(-115)	150	19	41.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

Most of the games we’ve talked about have been stack them up or don’t play them at all. This game has a lot of individual pieces that could be viable in filling out your lineups. And potentially a couple mini-stacks. Najee is in play. Diontae Johnson is in play. Moore and G Wilson are in play. Carter and Hall are in play, but really only in lottery-pick lineups because they take work from each other. Hall surprisingly is near the top the of the league in RB receptions. Zach Wilson may return this week meaning we don’t really know what will happen. Could build a Wilson stack or could go to Harris + Steelers DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Harris + Steelers DEF

Johnson + Moore

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Harris

Johnson

Moore

G Wilson

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Wilson + Harris + Moore/Wilson

Dallas Cowboys *	Washington Commanders	-3(-115)	-165	22.25	41.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Washington Commanders	Dallas Cowboys *	3(-105)	140	19.25	41.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

What do the Cowboys have to do to be the highest priced DEF? What do they have to do to be the highest owned DEF? They just put more pressure on Daniel Jones than any team ever has and they’re facing Carson Wentz who the Eagles just pushed around all day. They’re the third highest priced DEF and just barely crack the top ten in ownership. And, of course, I love the RB + DEF pairing. Enter Ezekiel Elliott. These are the players priced higher than Elliott – Gibson, Gordon, Dillon, Jacobs. Breece Hall is just below him. I know he hasn’t been putting up the numbers, but this is the spot. He’s priced too low for his potential in a great game environment. I’m locking in Elliott + Cowboys DEF. If you prefer, you can move down to Pollard. You can always build around anything you want, but I don’t have a ton of lottery-pick interest in this game. You could try Gallup if back. You could fade the Cowboys DEF and built a Wentz stack if you’re really feeling froggy.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Cowboys + DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Elliott

Pollard

Cowboys DEF

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Green Bay Packers *	New England Patriots	-9.5(-110)	-500	24.75	40	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 04:25
New England Patriots	Green Bay Packers *	9.5(-110)	375	15.25	40	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 04:25

9.5 point spread feels right and too low all at the same time. Hoyer for the Patriots playing in Green Bay. The only thing that really pushed the Packers down is that they really shouldn’t need to score much. Maybe they treat it like a practice and get the passing game going some more or maybe they just feed Jones and Dillon all day. This feels like a nice Rodgers + Jones + Lazard and could take your pick of any other Packers’ WR and could even add Packers DEF.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Jones + Packers DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Jones

Dillon

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Rodgers + Jones + Lazard

Rodgers + Jones + Lazard + Packers DEF

Jones + Dillon

New York Giants *	Chicago Bears	-3(-105)	-155	21.25	39.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00
Chicago Bears	New York Giants *	3(-115)	130	18.25	39.5	Sun, Oct 2, 2022 01:00

What a pitiful yet deserved total. Barkley is attractive but he’s popular. If going there, I’d go to Barkley + Giants DEF to get some leverage and take more advantage of the expected game script. For a lottery pick, you could hope Fields finally throws more and then completes those throws and then has some of those throws in the end zone… worth mention is that Montgomery is out so Herbert may become chalk. But, he’s just like Williams, he’s already priced for his increased role and playing in the lowest game total of the week. I’ll let others chase his big game from last week.

Building Blocks (stacks to build around)

Barkley + Giants DEF

Individual Plays (players that can be rostered alone to fill out your lineups that are built around other stacks)

Barkley

Lottery Picks (stacks and individual players that can surprise in a large-field tournament)

Fields + Herbert

Herbert + Bears DEF

Jones + Herbert + any healthy Giants WR you can find

The Lineup Build

Chalk lineup is around Allen, balanced lineup is around Hurts, and lottery-pick lineup is, well, take your pick, that’s the nature of the lottery-pick lineup. I’ll be going to that Raiders and Broncos game perhaps.

FD

My primary build is going to be around the Hurts + Brown stack, adding Etienne. I’ll add Singletary as exposure to the top game environment and as a pivot from Allen + Diggs. I’m locking in Elliott + Cowboys DEF. At TE, I’m likely to go to Waller and come back with Jeudy, but if you want a little less risk and want to bulk up the Eagles stack, could add Goedert then you have a ton options for two remaining WRs. Can go stud and dud, can go to average players in a mini-stack. If you stick to Waller and Jeudy, you can add Smith to get to QB + WR + WR or can can add a number of other individual pieces depending on your game preference. I’m still playing around with these builds.

DK

Getting some diversification by going to Allen at QB and playing him naked. Elliott + Cowboys DEF. Jamaal Williams is more attractive on DK so adding him. I’ll add Goedert at TE to get some diversification from my Hurts + Brown build on FD. I’ll add Lockett to pair with Williams. I can add Moore and Diontae Johnson. And I can add Marvin Jones (or Zay Jones) to pair with Goedert. You can correlate this lineup a little more and move up from Diontae to Diggs or move to Knox at TE but you’re left looking at bargain-bin WRs. But Duvernay fits to bring back if you want to.

Yahoo

Pricing is always a bit funnier on Yahoo allowing us to find some values on certain players that we aren’t targeting on FD or DK.

Starting with Hurts. At RB, Barkley, Ekeler, and Singletary are all cheap options we’ve talked about above. Pitts is too cheap at TE. Lamb too cheap, Adams too cheap, and then we can fill out our last WR with Metcalf or Lockett. If you want to build in a little more correlation you can move to Hockenson at TE but then you’ve got to find a spot to come down a couple dollars.