DFS Building Blocks – Week 9

We talked in the intro last week about teaching you the why of lineup building so you’re better able to make last-minute adjustments. We saw that again last Sunday with Ridley being ruled out Sunday morning and Jamaal Williams being ruled out. Ridley was a core piece of our lineups, so we had to adjust quickly. We had been targeting Gainwell and Hockenson in a mini-stack, but with the Ridley (and Williams) news we swapped to Swift at RB, Gesicki (to pair with our Allen stack) at TE, and ended up with Tajae Sharpe at WR, who did better than the other two. Our core stack of Allen + Diggs + Beasley did fine, but Diggs is still leaving us chasing his big game. Henderson + Rams was solid, but the Rams D suffered in garbage time. Gainwell fit in the flex, so we put him there, leaving us a big bust that could have been filled by a WR that would take us over the cash line. Rough week for a lot of people last week.

On to Week 10!

Not a lot to like this week, but a few clear pieces we can go after. Initial look gives us a couple key decision points… Jordan Love at min-price? Travis Kelce at highest price? Those two decisions will drive a lot of our lineup builds.

QB

Lamar Jackson. Always in play and worth a game stack, but I like better options this week.

Josh Allen. We’ve seen him pay off in close games, in blowouts, at home, on the road… his floor and ceiling combination is simply too high to ignore. He’s in play every week and I really like weeks where we can stack him with a WR or two, which is easier when we have some other clear value options on the slate. This is one of those weeks and he likely makes my main lineup. Again.

Patrick Mahomes. One of these days, right? Maybe not. Mahomes and the Chiefs are officially into ‘I need to see it again first’ territory for me. They’re still priced liked it’s 2020. Kelce is my lone exception this week just because of the difference he can make at TE.

Dak Prescott. In play, but I’d much rather go to Zeke here.

Jordan Love. Min-priced ($6,000 on FD). We’ve seen rookie QBs consistently fail this year and I don’t see any reason it will be different here. If you needed a reason though… Chiefs terrible D, rushing upside, WRs back, min-price. We’re targeting 3x a player’s salary, so what does that mean here? We need 18 points from Love – that’s 200 yards passing, one TD, and 60 rushing yards (or one rushing TD). Could he do it? Sure, but we’ve seen many fail to get there also. Let’s compare that to Derek Carr at $7,500. We need Carr to get 22.5 points. That’s only 4.5 more points than we need from Love. Do you feel reasonably confident that Carr can outscore Love by 4.5 points? I do. There are plenty of QBs in between that range and just over the range of Love. You have to think about how likely it is that some other QB will outscore Love by x points. That same concept goes for all players and all positions. We’re on a tangent here, but this week it’s Ekeler for 27 points compared to, let’s say, Booker at 18.9 points. That’s why getting the most points per dollar is so important. We’re not just hunting the highest points, but the highest points for our total salary. Now, the next level of this is how likely it is for each player to score 4x their salary? Love to get 24 and Carr to get 30. Ekeler to get 36 and Booker to get 25.2. You can start to see the value of these lower-priced players. Equal chance to get to 3x their salary but, arguably, a much greater chance to get to 4x their salary. These are the decisions we have to make each week.

Justin Herbert. Great matchup per the Vegas odds this week. I’m shying away here as I think it’s lower scoring than projected, but, as I’ve said before, it’s not in our long-term interest to bet against Vegas, so if you want to go here, I have no problem with it. Especially if Ekeler is really popular, can go Herbert for leverage. Or can go with a full game stack for leverage – that’s one of my favorite ways to play these scenarios.

Daniel Jones. Always underrated for his rushing upside. If you’re banking on Love for 18, why not just bank on Jones for 21.9?

Jalen Hurts. Similar to Jones. All he does is score 20+ fantasy points per game. Except last week.

Derek Carr. Solid mid-priced guy in a matchup that could stay close.

Teddy Bridgewater. I don’t love the matchup against the Cowboys but they’ll likely need to pass, so worse options.

Joe Burrow. This feels too low for Burrow’s ownership. This is a sneaky spot. It’s probably Allen, then Burrow for me.

Tua Tagovailoa. Playing Houston so feasible, but I’d rather go to Gaskin in this game with Brown out.

Kirk Cousins. Feels sneaky like Burrow. I don’t expect a shootout but we’ve seen different versions of the Baltimore D all year. Whether playing from ahead or behind, Cousins could put up points.

Kyler Murray. May be out, but game-time decision either way. I won’t be going here.

Baker Mayfield. Throw the analytics out the window. Baker seems like the type to go out and show OBJ’s Dad who the problem really was. A Baker + Landry game would not be surprising. With Burrow sneaky on the other side, I like stacking this game in a few different ways or just taking a couple pieces like Landry and Boyd/Higgins or even paying up for Chase.

Mac Jones. Not this week.

Tyrod Taylor. Priced close to Love. More proven than Love. And plenty of garbage time to go around. Not a bad spot to target if going cheap.

RB

Austin Ekeler. Popular as expected. It’s a nice spot, but this feels really expensive. I talked about needing 3x a player’s salary, but really we need 3x (on FD, 4x on DK) our total salary. We can get there in a few different ways, meaning we really only need 2.5x from Ekeler and 4x from some cheaper players like WRs. Still, this seems way too high for me. Although he has hit 3x this price two of the last four weeks. With the expensive RBs all projected to be popular this week, this is starting to feel like a spot to pay up at QB and WR and find a couple value RBs. If going here, I like it as part of a full stack, something like Herbert + Ekeler + Allen + Goedert.

Aaron Jones. Interesting player to examine after what we just said about Ekeler hitting his value two of the last four weeks. Jones has only hit 3x this price once this season… way back in week 2. Yes, you can expect them to lean on Jones, but don’t you think Kansas City knows that too?

Alvin Kamara. Taysom Hill may be starting (or at least playing some). Ingram is there now. This is too expensive for the uncertainty around the Saints right now.

Ezekiel Elliott. I really like Elliott this week. He’s only hit 3x this price twice this year, but with Dak coming back from injury and a “difficult” matchup, I’m looking for Zeke to surprise here. Although if paying $8,200 for Zeke, there’s a definite case to be made to just pay up for Ekeler. See what you like as you fit in other players in your lineups.

Dalvin Cook. Not really interested in Cook this week.

Joe Mixon. In play this week. I’d rather target the passing game from each side of this game, but I don’t mind a Burrow + Mixon + Boyd/Higgins + Landry game stack.

Zack Moss. Always viable for his TD upside, but Allen takes too much rushing away.

Nick Chubb. I’d like to see him back one more week first.

Christian McCaffrey. Probably not back this week, but I’ll stay away even if he is.

Myles Gaskin. Too cheap for an RB playing Houston. I like Gaskin as the value RB we need to build a different lineup structure.

Elijah Mitchell. Keeps getting it done, but not 3x this price yet. I’ll stay away this week.

Devontae Booker. We talked about Booker in our Love analysis. Barkley out again, making Booker way too cheap for his role. A Booker + Gaskin lineup opens up room for an Allen stack.

Some others I like:

Josh Jacobs. Not enough ownership attention and he’s putting up a very consistent floor each week, and has two-TD upside each week.

David Johnson. This is purely a guess. It’s a bet that Johnson got very little work last week because they were way behind, way early. This week, with Taylor back, we may get a more traditional lead-back in Houston. May not be Johnson, but worth a flier in a deep tourney lineup. If it turns out that way, it’s very rare to get a starting RB at only $5,300. If Taylor can keep it competitive, and Johnson gets the work, could be a surprise 3 or 4x performance. Don’t like it? Take a flier on Lindsay or Burkhead if you prefer.

D’Ernest Johnson. Cheaper than where Hunt was priced and seems to still have enough upside in the Hunt role.

WR

Tyreek Hill. Always in play. Monster upside. Worth a Chiefs stack if you want to be there when they have a classic Chiefs game. He won’t be in my main, but maybe in my third or fourth lineup I’ll take a cheap shot in the $million tourney.

Jaylen Waddle. Cheap for the volume he gets, even with Parker back. I still prefer Gaskin here, but I wouldn’t be afraid of a Gaskin + Waddle stack either.

Stefon Diggs. This is the week! Right? Right back to our Allen + Diggs stack. He’s putting up enough floor that we don’t get crushed if he doesn’t hit and hopefully we’ll get his big game this week.

Amari Cooper. Tougher matchup than Lamb, but has the talent.

CeeDee Lamb. Better matchup, but trouble is figuring out who gets the points.

Davante Adams. Back, but I’ll pass with Love at the helm.

Jarvis Landry. I like it. He doesn’t have the traditional multi-TD upside we like, but I think Baker feeds Landry this week. Great DK option.

Keenan Allen. Another always-great DK option. Nice matchup for Allen this week.

Deebo Samuel. Staying away from this game.

Ja’Marr Chase. Low ownership is reflecting his high salary, but he’s still worth it. If going with a Burrow stack, it’s a chance to get a ton of talent at WR at relatively low ownership. Paying up for Chase is made feasible with Gaskin + Booker at RB.

DeVante Parker. Nice pivot off the more popular Waddle.

Jerry Jeudy. Surprisingly good matchup for him against the Cowboys this week, but too banged up still for me.

Mike Williams. Eagles aren’t a great matchup for his role.

Tee Higgins. This is interesting. I’m good going here as part of a Burrow stack or even going all the way down to Boyd (especially on DK).

Hunter Renfrow. Good DK option as he may get a few more looks with Ruggs gone.

Brandin Cooks. Better DK option than FD, but I’ll be staying away.

Kadarius Toney. He’s worth a flier, especially if going to a mini-stack with Jacobs, Renfrow, Edwards, or Waller. I wouldn’t even mind a Jones + Booker + Toney stack.

Justin Jefferson. Not the best matchup, would rather go to Thielen this week.

Jakobi Meyers

DeVonta Smith

D.J. Moore

Courtland Sutton

Adam Thielen. Nice piece to add at low ownership.

Mecole Hardman

Cole Beasley

Laviska Shenault

Rashod Bateman

Marquise Brown (seems way too expensive)

Brandon Aiyuk

DeAndre Hopkins

Tyler Boyd. Super low ownership after a series of disappointments, but worth a shot in a game stack.

Marvin Jones. Agnew getting a lot of attention, but worth a shot going back to Jones for garbage time.

Emmanuel Sanders. A terrible disappointment last week… but it’s DFS, worth adding to an Allen + Diggs stack if you want to go full stack of that game or just the Bills side.

Bryan Edwards. In play as the “number one” receiver, but that’s really Waller, so still skippable.

Nico Collins. Worth a shot with Taylor back. He’s been pretty consistent and may get some upside now.

Donovan Peoples-Jones. OBJ is out, which is not reflected in Peoples-Jones’ price. Great option on the other side of a Burrow stack.

Josh Gordon. He’s seeing the field more. Totally a lottery pick, but maybe the Chiefs come out firing and really spread it out.

TE

Travis Kelce. I really want to pay up for Kelce again this week. I’m a little surprised to see his ownership so high given the state of the Chiefs offense, but that’s more a statement on the weak TE position. I’d expect Waller and Andrews to lead ownership. If that’s the case, I’m more willing to take a shot on Kelce again. He has to be part of the Chiefs figuring it out.

Mike Gesicki. In play against Houston and a nice pivot off the popular Waddle.

Darren Waller. We haven’t seen a true Waller game since week one. This could be the spot.

Mark Andrews. Always has two-TD upside. I won’t be going here, but not a bad option.

Dallas Goedert. Great option in a game stack or if you want a mid-range TE.

Jared Cook. Not a great option with so many other Chargers weapons.

Kyle Pitts. He’s off the list for me against a tough D and with no Ridley to take attention away.

Tyler Conklin. Interesting option against Baltimore, but really just taking a flier here.

Dalton Schultz. Not bad with Jarwin out, but he doesn’t really get 3x this price outside of his one two-TD game and too many other weapons in Dallas.

Dan Arnold. Interesting piece if you want to go cheap at TE and want to take a flier on adding a Jags player to an Allen stack.

Albert Okwuegbunam. Cheap and filling in for Fant, but not worth a spot to me.

DEF

Dolphins. More popular than they should be with Taylor back. Attractively priced if you want to go here still, but I’m going to give Taylor the bare-minimum level of respect that says Miami shouldn’t be an auto-pick this week.

Falcons. Makes sense in theory since the Saints are starting their backups. But Hill should be running more and provide less opportunities for turnovers.

Cowboys. I actually like this pick this week. Denver is playing tough and Bridgewater is playing well, but if wanting to save some salary this seems like a nice spot.

Chiefs. Love or the Chiefs? That is the question. I get it. Love at Arrowhead could be in for a long day, but this defense is terrible… I’ll pass. I’d be more likely to take a shot on Love if ownership ends up low.

49ers. Makes sense if Murray is out, but I’ll probably stay away even so.

Bills. How do we not just lock in the Bills each week? Great option if paying up to be different.

Saints. I really like this, especially if more people are going to the Falcons. Paying up for playing against a team without their star WR and that has struggled a lot this season.

Patriots. Belichick vs Darnold. That’s all you need to know, sign me up.

The Lineup Build

I’m locking in Allen + Diggs. I’m locking in Gaskin. I’m locking in Landry. I’d like to lock in Thielen in the flex, but not a priority.

That leaves me building around the other RB spot and TE. If I go Booker + Gaskin at RB I can fit Kelce. If I go Elliott + Gaskin I need to go down to someone like Arnold at TE (which is feasible in my Bills + Jags game stack). That also allows me to pay up more at DEF.

I want to lock in either Boyd or Higgins on the other side of Landry, depending on salary. I’ll also play around with going up to Chase in a Booker + Gaskin + cheap TE lineup.

I’ll be tinkering with these seeing what I like and seeing where ownership ends up Sunday morning.

After this, my secondary lineup would be a Burrow + Chase (if I didn’t play him in primary lineup) + Landry stack or even a full Burrow + Chase + Higgins/Boyd + Landry stack.

For my third lineup, just feels right to try to be on the Chiefs comeback train. Mahomes + Hill + Kelce. Could go with Gordon or Hardman. Really just taking a flier here anyway, so go with your gut.

After this, may take a shot on a Love stack.

And may add some Jones stacks and Carr stacks.

Maybe a Cousins + Jefferson + Thielen + Brown/Andrews stack.