DFS Building Blocks – Week 8
Our goal in DFS is to make better rosters so we’re in position to take advantage of variance when it swings in our direction. If we have a couple players with big scores, but our roster isn’t built well, we don’t really have a chance at first. It takes the right roster construction and hitting positive variance to get a tournament winning score. That’s our goal, put ourselves in the best position each week. We’ve been building strong rosters all year and last week variance went our way… mostly.
This was our main lineup, essentially what we wrote up in the article. When Stevenson was inactive for the Patriots, we swapped from Conner + ARI to Harris + NE. It’s important to monitor news all the way up to kickoff. You have to be able to adjust your lineup quickly sometimes to take advantage of new information. That’s why we focus so much on teaching you how to build lineups, not just giving you players. Conner wasn’t a total bust, going for about 2x value, but we definitely benefited from the swap.
Our Brady + Evans + Godwin stack went as good as we could have hoped for. Brady at only 6% ownership and Evans at 11% gave us leverage off the lineups that only played the cheaper, chalkier Godwin by himself. Our Pitts + Waddle mini-stack was okay, but we could’ve used more from Waddle.
Rotten luck saw Sanders get hurt and leave very early, leaving Boston Scott with a late TD. 15 to 20 points from Sanders makes this lineup finish much closer to the top.
Our big miss, along with the rest of the DFS world, was Tyreek Hill. Had we rostered Brown, Chase, or McLaurin instead, this lineup also would have looked a lot different. I don’t recall if there was enough money left to have moved up to Kupp, but that obviously would have been nice also. Brown, McLaurin, and Kupp were all players on our radar. Chase became more interesting Sunday as it was clear the Bengals were getting very little ownership attention. He’s a good example of talent winning even in a difficult matchup and a good example of what happens when you bet on a game scenario that the public is not expecting.
So why did we roster Hill? Simple answer, we wanted exposure to the Chiefs game. More complex answer, our secondary lineup was a Mahomes + Kelce stack. So if Kelce was a bust there was a high likelihood that Hill would have had a solid day. What’s the right play though…
If we didn’t have the secondary lineup of Mahomes + Kelce, the right play would likely have been to fade Hill. If Hill had a big day, then Mahomes also had a big day and some other Chiefs pieces may have also had a big day. So if making a Brady stack, we’re banking on the Chiefs game being a letdown – or at least not being a monster game that we’ll regret not having a piece of. That’s the normal decision you have to make in these situations – take a single, high-upside piece of the game, like Hill, or fade the game completely, boosting your chance of winning if your game blows up and the other popular game busts. One isn’t necessarily right and the other wrong, as we saw with Kupp and Brown and McLaurin being fine stand-alone pieces. But those are the things you should be thinking about when making those decisions.
Hopefully you had the Brady + Evans + Godwin core and were able to mix in some of those other monster WR performances. Send us a note at [email protected] and let us know!
On to Week 8!
This is a week where my first look gets me to a lineup that I really like. When that happens it’s likely all those plays will be popular as well. So our task is to then go through our full research processes and see if we still want to follow the crowd with our initial lineup or if we can find some smart pivots to get leverage on the field. I’ll start with the lineup build this week, then we’ll see where we land at the end.
I headed right to the Bills game as we’ve been chasing a Diggs monster performance. He had a nice game before the bye, hitting value, but not really blowing up. They have the highest implied team total on the slate, so the question is do they get out to a big lead because of Allen + Diggs? You have to pick the story you want to tell, but that’s the path I’m going to take. Really don’t need to bring back a Miami player, but I’m going to target Waddle again simply because either through garbage time or a Miami surprise he should see a lot of volume. You could go with Gesicki if you prefer, but I’m leaning to Hockenson at TE, in a mini-stack with Gainwell at RB. If you wanted to go with Herbert or Mitchell as a cheap RB option instead, Gesicki would fit nicely at TE. I like going back to Ridley now that Pitts has had a few nice games. I’ll go to Henderson in a great matchup, hoping people shy away after he disappointed last week and I’ll pay up for the Rams D for the correlation with Henderson. Then I’m left to fill out my flex with whatever cheap option I can find.
Now let’s see if any other players stand out to us.
QB
Josh Allen. Always in play. Blowout risk, but barring a surprising lean to the running game, he should be part of getting to the blowout.
Jalen Hurts. In play for his rushing and floor. He’s very consistently getting to around 3x this price, but doesn’t really have a giant ceiling and doesn’t come with a discount anymore.
Matthew Stafford. Take a pick on Rams rushing or passing game this week or return to the Stafford + Henderson + Kupp stack. Or, with Kupp priced right, go back to Woods or Jefferson in a stack.
Justin Herbert. Mostly staying away from this game outside of a Herbert + Williams stack with Williams long forgotten about in the public mind.
Tom Brady. This is interesting once again. He should be passing this week and we once again get a more narrow WR pool to target (if we assume Lattimore shadows Evans). A Brady + Godwin + Gronk stack may become my secondary lineup.
Joe Burrow. Will pass this week as they stay more balanced against the Jets.
Trevor Lawrence. Can go here as part of some game stacks, but not a priority for me.
Ryan Tannehill. I was way off on calling a Titans letdown last week (picked the wrong team!) but I think this week is a tough, low-scoring game with Indy.
Matt Ryan. Interesting piece against an overrated Carolina D (we’ve been telling you that for a few weeks now). He has all his weapons back so makes a really nice salary saver, particularly on DK where it’s harder to pay up for QB.
Carson Wentz. Has been surprisingly good and should go under the radar, but I’m not really targeting this game.
Teddy Bridgewater. Can do a lot worse than this if you’re going cheap. Could be a nice game stack here with Sutton and McLaurin on the other side.
Sam Darnold. Ew. But… that’s what we like to target. I don’t think he has the upside we want, but it’s times like these when everyone in the world is off a player that it can really pay off.
Jameis Winston. Ew. He may pick up popularity with people expecting volume against the Bucs, but similar to Fields last week, I don’t want to play a bad QB when the other team can force them to be one-dimensional.
Taylor Heinicke. No thanks.
Geno Smith. Moving on.
Ben Roethlisberger. Ton of volume potentially, but I think this is also a low-scoring game.
Mac Jones. Doesn’t have the upside we’re targeting.
Jared Goff. I like some pieces of this game in a mini-stack but don’t really want to roster Goff.
Tua Tagovailoa. This is interesting if you think Miami can keep up or they get a ton of garbage time. I won’t be going here as I’m already not excited about adding Waddle to my Allen + Diggs stack.
RB
Alvin Kamara. Surprised to see him this popular, but people banking on passing volume. If going to Kamara, make sure it’s part of a Brady stack as well.
Darrell Henderson. I like this. Bust last week in a good matchup, but even better matchup this week. Appears he’s not sneaking up on anyone, but this seems like good chalk this week.
D’Andre Swift. Getting a ton of targets and usage. You have to pay for it, but he’s worth it again this week.
Derrick Henry. Not going back to Henry this week against a tough Indy run D. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Jonathan Taylor. Passing, but intriguing option in a game where Henry may get all the attention. Still, not really an upside matchup this week.
Austin Ekeler. This is interesting if you want to get a piece of the Chargers, but won’t be a priority for me. Could be in line for a lot of passing volume. Would also be a nice pivot off of Kamara.
Joe Mixon. Did well last week, but is losing usage to his backups. I’ll pass this week, even in a great matchup.
Nick Chubb. I need to see him healthy again first.
Cordarrelle Patterson. He’s getting more work than Davis, but he’s only hit 3x this price twice this year and now has more competition for targets as well.
Najee Harris. Will get volume again, but I’m mostly staying away from this game.
Leonard Fournette. This is a tough run D versus tough run D matchup. I’ll stick to the Brady side here.
Chuba Hubbard. Not fully getting the CMC role and on a team that is struggling. Not worth the price.
James Robinson. Continues to get it done and could go very overlooked this week. If not going to Henderson, this would be a nice shift.
Khalil Herbert. Getting workhorse volume and they need to run the ball since Fields isn’t getting it done. He nearly got 3x this price against the Bucs last week, so no reason he can’t get there against the 49ers. I like this play stacked with the Bears D as even more leverage off the chalky Henderson + Rams stack. Or a pivot from Gainwell.
Damien Harris. Got there last week, but not consistent enough and not enough upside.
Elijah Mitchell. Interesting piece as the 49ers, like the Bears, want to run the ball. Another sneaky, cheap option. Players in the same price range: Penny, J Williams, Boston Scott, Perine, Gaskin, Carter. You get the leading RB on a run-first team for the same price as players in a timeshare. That’s pretty good value.
Antonio Gibson. Too hurt and too much McKissic.
Kenneth Gainwell. I like this piece. He was a sleeper before the season and now gets a shot without Sanders. Boston Scott will get involved some, but remember Gainwell had basically replaced Scott, so I don’t see any reason he doesn’t get a full shot here and he’s cheap. This should be a very popular play as we get closer to Sunday.
Michael Carter. Getting the volume now and not looking terrible. Could be in line for a lot of passing volume and garbage time.
Zack Moss. If you’re fading the Allen stack might as well bank on a couple Moss TDs. Or even Singletary if you prefer.
David Johnson. Not a great play, but Ingram is gone and you’re getting him about as cheap as you can possibly get a starting (?) RB these days. Worth a shot here or on Lindsay to save salary.
WR
Cooper Kupp. As good as he’s been, he’s only hit 3x this price three times. It’s not likely you’ll regret not having him this week.
Stefon Diggs. More popular than I’d like him to be, but has a ton of upside this week.
Ja’Marr Chase. Very good, but if going to a piece of this game, I’d rather pivot to Higgins rather than chasing points here.
Chris Godwin. Very interesting piece. Had a nice game last week and should see a lot of volume this week as well with Lattimore covering Evans and no Brown again.
A.J. Brown. Skipping this game.
Deebo Samuel. Better season-long play. Has the upside, but this should be a lower volume game and he’s pricey now. Only needs one big play though.
D.J. Moore. Priced down some, but still expensive on a struggling team. I’d rather take a flier on Anderson here. Ew.
Mike Williams. Seems forgotten with all the big WR performances we’ve had recently. I’m probably not targeting this game, but I’d take a shot here if you want to. Good pivot off Ridley and Diggs.
Calvin Ridley. Pitts is finally doing it and Ridley may be a bit overlooked this week.
Mike Evans. Not this week.
Diontae Johnson. A lot of volume and they target the offense for him. Worth a play at reduced ownership. I think the game is low-scoring, but I also think Johnson gets his points in any game scenario.
Sutton / Woods / Higgins. All lower-priced options that could go overlooked.
Emmanuel Sanders (or Beasley or Davis). If Diggs busts, it’s likely one of these has a nice day. Could also add to an Allen + Diggs stack.
Robby Anderson. Mentioned above. We know he’s the type of player we like – capable of a two-TD game and he may be near-zero ownership the way they’ve been struggling. It’s not comfortable, but it’s not supposed to be.
TE
Kyle Pitts. Top of pricing and top of ownership, just like everyone drew up in Week 1. Took a while but he’s arrived with 3x this price the last two weeks. We might be catching his salary still at a discount.
T.J. Hockenson. I like Hockenson this week, particularly with the Gainwell pairing.
Dallas Goedert. Others I’d rather target, but if you wanted to go with Swift instead of Hockenson, could go here at TE.
Noah Fant. Worth a shot with Bridgewater back, but others I like better.
Tyler Higbee. You’re just guessing, but if fading Kupp and Henderson worth a shot or worth adding to a full Rams stack.
Mike Gesicki. Best option on the Miami side of things and less popular because of his price and matchup.
Jared Cook. Not enough upside with Parnham in the mix.
Hunter Henry. Not enough volume; need TD to pay off.
Ricky Seals-Jones. I’d rather go McLaurin as part of a stack, but if you want to go even cheaper can go here instead.
Rob Gronkowski. One of the reasons we liked Evans last week was he was filling the seam-route role that Gronk fills. Now Gronk is back, Evans being shadowed, and Brown is out. Fire him up!
Dan Arnold. Nice rapport with Lawrence already, but he’s pretty popular given his low price. I’d rather go with some of the above options. Nice play on DK.
DEF
Rams. Lock them in. Popular and expensive but worth it and plenty of other places to save salary.
49ers. Playing Fields? Yes, please.
Seahawks. Not bad, but shouldn’t be this popular.
Bengals. Playing the lowly Jets starting what should be a 3rd string QB. After what they did to Baltimore I’m surprised they’re not even more popular. This should help draw some ownership away from the Rams though.
Washington. Bridgewater doesn’t offer a ton of upside for this matchup.
Jets. Huh? This is just the public getting too cute trying to save a ton of salary. Don’t do it.
Browns. Big Ben is a target these days, but I like others better.
Bills. They’re dominating. I really don’t even hate an Allen + Diggs + Bills stack. We saw that pay off with the Bucs last week.
Bucs. In play because of the Jameis factor.
Bears. 49ers are shaky and they’ll need their D to step up. This is not a bad cheap option.
The Lineup Build
So, where did we land? Sticking with the lineup we discussed at the top. That’s good news… we feel good about the plays, even though they’re expected to be popular.
We identified a number of good RB pivots if you want to mix it up some. And also some good TE alternatives.
For my secondary lineup, definitely going with a Brady + Godwin + Gronk + Kamara lineup. It’s like 1a and 1b. If you want to go here as your main, go for it, I’m tempted myself. We lose Hockenson at TE, so can play Swift at RB instead. We do lose some of the value that Gainwell provides, but that will give us some leverage. We could also move to Gainwell in the flex though. Have to find some savings at WR to make this work, so can move down to Sanders instead of Diggs. And can even go full game stack and add Callaway. If you’re not first, you’re last! Then play around with flex and D depending on what salary you have left.