DFS Building Blocks – Week 7

We talked about the nontraditional QB+RB+WR stack a lot last week. The one place we didn’t talk about it as much was the Rams, preferring a Stafford + Kupp + Woods stack. Of course, it was the Stafford + Henderson + Kupp stack we needed. We should note though one of Henderson’s TDs was a passing TD, which I’ll consider a technicality. But whenever we see a high-powered team expected to score a lot of points and expected to win by a wide margin, this QB+RB+WR stack is in play. We have a number of those situations again this week.

Before Chubb was announced as out and Hunt became the most popular play of the week, we were targeting a Mahomes + Williams + Kelce stack. Kelce was a bust, but Williams was the top RB value of the day. We were also heavily targeting Taylor, who ended up as the top raw score of the day. Taylor, Mixon, Williams were in the top 4 in raw points at the RB position. Pretty good day… if we didn’t switch to Hunt.

We talked about all the reasons to play Hunt, but also highlighted the reasons not to play him. He was expensive (or at least priced fairly), he was extremely popular, he was hurt, and there were other similarly-priced plays we liked a lot in Taylor and Mixon. This brings us back to game theory – any time a player is expected to be owned by 40% of the field, you should almost always fade them in a tournament. When it’s 40% because of an extreme pricing error, you can follow the crowd. But that wasn’t the case with Hunt. This is a situation where the Browns strong running game and the strong game environment last week was too tempting, but we probably should have stuck to our game theory guns and faded Hunt, with so many negatives and other reasonable plays available.

On to Week 7!

QB

Mahomes, Stafford, and Brady in games where they’re expected to win by a lot (Mahomes only by 4.5). We’ve talked about all three of these as “just play them” in these scenarios. With all three of them in this situation this week, we’re likely to see one of them produce a tournament-winning score at lower ownership than they deserve. Mahomes is the best target in the game that is most likely to be a back-and-forth game – although I think there is a chance for a Titans bust this week. But I think Mahomes gets his points either way.

After these three, Rodgers is in a great spot but is in sort of a middle ground. Not expected to have as much passing volume as the above three, so if passing on the above three, would rather go all the way down to a couple cheaper options (then target other pieces of the above games).

Can always play Lamar Jackson, of course, but I’d rather go to the three above or one mentioned below.

Matt Ryan/Tua. Both are in play, with Ryan our preferred target. It’s a close game. If the blowout games this week weren’t Mahomes, Stafford, and Brady we’d be looking for a game like this much more often. A game with a close spread that has potential to turn into a shootout. If it does shootout, it will come at lower ownership than it should. One path this week is taking a cheaper QB here, then filling out your lineup with more expensive pieces of those other blowout games.

Tannehill is worth a mention, but his receiving corps is just too banged up for me to go here. It also sets up very well as a Henry game if they can keep up early. This one feels like Henry or a total Titans bust.

Darnold worth a shot this week against a Giants team that hasn’t caught a break all season. I’d only play this as part of a mini-stack with Anderson or with a Darnold + Hubbard + Anderson stack.

Fields is in play because of his rushing, but I don’t like taking rookie QBs when the other team can be expected to make them one dimensional. In this case, with Tampa Bay taking away the running game.

RB

Darrell Henderson. Huge spread, popular after last week. No reason not to return to him here. Can get leverage by going right back to the Stafford + Henderson + Kupp stack that won last week. Outside of not chasing points, there is nothing that should prevent that trio from having another big day.

Aaron Jones. Surprised to see him this popular, but with a big spread in this game as well, we could definitely see a multi-TD Jones game. Adams will also be popular. Can play this for leverage or can play Jones + Adams or even Rodgers + Jones + Adams (but add McLaurin too then).

D’Andre Swift. Getting a lot of volume and a lot of targets. Great play on DK because of his passing volume, but also enough passing volume to make him a solid value on FD.

Derrick Henry. He’s starting to get priced appropriately now. He’s 11k on FD. In the last two weeks, he’s scored 3 TDs each and just barely broke 3x value on this salary last week. Even if he hits 40 points, that’s still not hitting 4x. Last week’s top value per salary RBs (on FD) were 4.3x, 3.8x 3.8x 3.4x, 3.3x, 3.2x (Henderson). What’s the point? We can find cheaper RB values that need less things to go right to hit their 3x value. We need Henry to have another 3 TD game or another 200-yard, 2 TD game to get there. Can he do it? Of course. But we can probably find a cheaper player that is just as likely to hit 3x at lower ownership, which is particularly important this week as we’ll have a lot of expensive plays we like.

Leonard Fournette. In play, but no reason to not take the passing game even in a blowout.

Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers want to run the ball more – we’ll see if they do. He’s been too expensive for his performance, but if ever a week to get his 3 to 4x, this is the week.

Darrel Williams. We nailed him last week, but this week feels like a return to Chiefs passing game.

Chase Edmonds. Too hard to pick between him and Conner, especially in a blowout when Conner may get more work.

Joe Mixon. Not this week against a Baltimore team that just shut down the Chargers.

Miles Sanders. This is intriguing. Another team that should run the ball more in another game that could be a sneaky shootout. Sanders could end up being our non-Henry RB play. It’s not comfortable picking Sanders based on his performance; this would be a bet on the Eagles giving in to fan pressure and getting him more involved.

Mike Davis. Ridley is back. Gage is likely back. This could open things up for a more traditional RB to succeed or it could push the Falcons to the pass even more. I’m staying away this week.

Devontae Booker. Not a bad matchup against an overrated Carolina D. The public is likely to see the red 1 next to him and avoid him, but he fits the bill as a cheap player capable of hitting 3x this week.

James Conner. A lot of uncertainty, but this game should favor Conner over Edmonds. Worth a shot to get exposure to all the expected Cardinals’ points.

Cordarrelle Patterson. Could keep doing it, but I want to see what happens with Ridley and Gage back. Patterson may be the odd man out this week.

Devonta Freeman. No.

Antonio Gibson. Even if healthy, rather take a flier on McKissic in a negative game script.

Josh Jacobs. Interesting piece that is being overlooked. Jacobs or Sanders could emerge from this game with a tournament-winning score.

Damien Harris. I want to like this in what should be a Patriots domination, but too much other RB involvement. Worth a shot on a Harris + NE stack if you want.

J.D. McKissic. Playable, but not a priority.

WR

Davante Adams. Popular, as expected. Strong play this week. I’ll be targeting him as a single-piece of this game.

Chris Godwin. Best matchup of the Bucs WRs, but we’re really just guessing who gets the targets. It’s rare we see the Brady game from a couple weeks ago where two WRs each got two TDs. I’m more likely to play Brady naked this week, but if I want a piece of that game, Godwin is a good, but pricey, option.

Cooper Kupp. I only want to play Kupp this week if also playing Henderson. There is a case to be made that the reason the game will be a blowout is because Kupp dominates again, but he’s priced to the point that you really need that domination. For what’s it worth, you can say the same thing for Adams at $100 more. And Kupp has hit that 3x score more than Adams this year.

Tyreek Hill. Always in play. We’ll see if we land here or on Kelce or on both.

Robert Woods. Can take a shot here if you want, but he had his 3x game, then came back down last week. I’d rather follow the crowd to Henderson or stick to the core stack of Stafford + Henderson + Kupp. Woods is cheaper exposure to this game though.

Jakobi Meyers. Not enough volume this week.

Mike Evans. See Godwin. Take your pick.

Calvin Ridley. Solid pick this week, but I prefer Pitts at TE instead. Let’s give Ridley a week to get back before we pay for this level of popularity.

D.J. Moore. Rather take a shot on Anderson this week. As good as Moore has been, he’s only hit 3x this price once this year.

Ja’Marr Chase. Upside all day, but staying away this week.

Antonio Brown. OUT. With Brown and Gronk out, it actually gets us closer to that scenario we saw a couple weeks ago where a Brady + Evans + Godwin stack could be much more feasible. This will pick up popularity.

Brandin Cooks. No thanks. Gets volume, but this team is a mess and Cardinals should crush them.

DeAndre Hopkins. Interesting option this week. He was so valuable in Houston because he got all the volume. Now he’s on a team that spreads the ball around. Does Kyler force the ball to him this week playing Houston? Or do they play their normal game, get out to a big lead, and run the ball? Who knows. I’ll have some exposure, but he’s probably too expensive to make it into my main.

Jefferson/Jackson. Van Jefferson didn’t pan out last week on our main lineup, but he remains a good boom or bust option to get exposure to the Rams offense. Jackson the same.

Robby Anderson. I like this option this week. Could be a get-right game and with so many popular plays this week, we’ll need an under-the-radar piece like this to hit.

Russell Gage. Interesting pivot from all the Ridley ownership. If you don’t go Pitts at TE, this could be a sneaky spot.

TE

Travis Kelce. I really want to play him. We’re “due” for a Kelce game. He’s just really hard to fit. I may have my secondary lineup built around Kelce.

Mark Andrews. Mostly staying away from this game, but nothing wrong with this play.

Ricky Seals-Jones. Okay play, especially if you’re targeting a Green Bay stack on the other side.

Tyler Higbee. Not going here in the blowout game, with other TEs I like better.

Cole Kmet. Not against the Bucs, even with the case for garbage time.

Darren Waller. We’re also “due” for a Waller game.

T.J. Hockenson. We’re also “due” for a Hockenson game. I like Hockenson the most of the garbage time plays.

Mike Gesicki. Solid but I’d rather go to Pitts on the other side.

Hunter Henry. Good TD upside, but should be low volume this week.

Jonnu Smith. If going to a Patriots TE, I’d rather bet on them getting Jonnu more involved, but no reason to go to either.

Dallas Goedert. I’d expect him to end up more popular with Ertz gone now, but I’d rather go to Sanders here.

Evan Engram. No thanks.

Kyle Pitts. Feels like chasing points now after all the weeks we were waiting for his breakout, but I think Ridley and Gage back will help open things up for him.

Hayden Hurst. Enough a presence to take away from Pitts some, but if going here you’re really banking on a TD.

Robert Tonyan. This is an interesting spot. Been a quiet year, if going to Rodgers, I don’t mind a Rodgers + Adams + Tonyan + McLaurin stack.

Zach Ertz. Interesting, but let’s wait and see. Also, as mentioned, they spread the ball around too much.

Howard/Brate. Have to mention these two with Gronk out. If not building a Brady stack, I like Howard at TE to get exposure to the game. But if building around Brady, I’m likely just biting the bullet and adding Evans and Godwin.

DEF

We talked about the expected blowouts this week. Strong offenses in those games, but also strong defenses. Easy to see any of these top four putting up points this week.

Arizona Cardinals. I like stacking with Conner.

Los Angeles Rams. I like this less than the others, because the Lions play the entire game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I actually like this, even as part of a Brady stack. I don’t want to come back with any Bears players, so I might as well double-down and play the D as part of the stack.

New England Patriots. Belichick versus rookie QBs. They destroyed Wilson in the first game, no reason to think they won’t do it again.

Two others worth a mention:

Green Bay Packers. Washington is beat up; they may not be able to compete as well as projected to.

Kansas City Chiefs. This won’t be popular, but this really feels like a Titans letdown week. Chiefs get out to a quick lead, get a turnover, and the popular Henry play is en route to a bust. Lots of leverage with this play. Similar to Bucs above, I wouldn’t be afraid to play this alongside a Mahomes stack. It also saves a lot of money and will give you a unique (but potentially “too cute”) build.

The Lineup Build

We don’t have angry-Brady this week like we did after he played New England and threw for 5 TDs and 400+ yards, but we do have a more concentrated Bucs WR pool this week. With Brown and Gronk out, I’m going to bite the bullet in my main lineup and start with a stack of Brady + Evans + Godwin. Evans and Godwin are surprisingly cheap for their upside (because the ball usually gets spread around) so take the discount and start here. Then cross your fingers that we don’t see two Howard TDs. Or a Fournette game. Or the ghost of Ronald Jones playing the entire second half. I think all those things are not as likely as an Evans + Godwin upside game, but you have to know they’re all options.

I want a piece of the Chiefs offense. I want Kelce, so use him if you prefer, but I’m going to use Hill at WR instead. I like adding Conner + ARI D. I like adding Sanders at the other RB spot, giving us two cheaper, less popular plays. Then I like Pitts at TE. I can come back with Waddle but that feels like chasing points. I can add Jefferson/Jackson to get exposure to the Rams offense. This would be great leverage on all the Henderson lineups. I’m still playing around with TE and the flex here.

I’m going to play with this some seeing what I can build with Kelce instead of Hill. And also seeing if there is a way to jam Adams in.

In my second lineup, I’m going to start with Mahomes + Kelce.

Then I’ll be playing around with some Stafford + Henderson + Kupp stacks as well.