DFS Building Blocks – Week 2
Our first main slate behind us. I’ve heard reports of users nearly doubling up this week, hope that was you! Let’s see how we did.
Remember, our goal isn’t just to pick good players. Our goal is to pick good players that aren’t also being picked by the public. Sometimes we will follow the crowd, but we need to have a good reason. With that said, let’s look at some of our good fades and good picks, not to brag (or cry) but to see if we can learn some lessons.
Fist, some of our good fades (going against public sentiment) – when these players bust, we get a big advantage over the field.
Fade Najee Harris.
“Hype much? I get it – he’s all they have. But what else do they have? A bad offensive line. And a bad matchup. And a team and QB that isn’t afraid to just keep throwing it. Yes, that means Najee can get a lot of receiving volume, but I’m staying away. He feels cheap, but I think the hype is priced in already. He’s more expensive than James Robinson and Raheem Mostert with way better matchups.”
Robinson was a bust too but finished above Najee. Mostert had two carries for 20 yards before leaving the game early. He was well on his way to crushing the day, as evidenced by both his backups having solid days. The lesson here? Look beyond the hype. Yes, we like to be ahead of the crowd and we can sometimes find that by getting on a rookie player before others, but when an unproven player is so popular, without ever having touched the field, it’s probably an easy fade for us. Particularly when nothing about the game environment is attractive and when other, more proven players are similarly priced.
Fade Kyle Pitts.
“He might be a monster. He might score four TDs. He might be the second coming. Or he might be a rookie starting his first NFL game for a team that has a lot of new pieces.”
Now, I did say he was too cheap for his potential on DK. But on FD Pitts’ hype gave us a great reason to lock in Kelce in the highest game total of the week and highest implied team total. Anytime you can get Kelce at lower-than-normal ownership in the best game of the week, go for it. Kelce also happened to be playing a team that gives up a lot of TE points. This was a situation to not overthink. More on that in a bit. But the lesson? Don’t pass on the best player on the slate, in a great game environment, at reduced ownership just for the sake of hype. Pitts has great potential (and may be a great play this week!) but if playing him last week we were just banking on hope (hype).
Fade Jameis Winston.
“No thanks.”
Ouch. Five TDs but that’s not sustainable on the amount of passes he had. Moving on.
Fade Marquez Callaway.
“What? Has the whole world gone crazy? How are we starting here with Callaway as the most popular option? I’m staying far away. He should get the Jaire Alexander treatment from the Packers. That alone is enough to avoid him. This seems like a silly attempt by the public to lock in volume. I get the “have to throw it to someone” narrative, but this team is a mess. I’ll give you 50/50 on whether Callaway or Alexander catches more of Winston’s passes! That may be a slight exaggeration, but, even at this cheap price, I’m staying away from Callaway.”
The fade worked, but we also got lucky here. Winston threw 5 TDs, so Callaway easily could have paid off.
Fade Alvin Kamara.
“Ugh. He’s near 30% ownership playing a Packers defense that wasn’t great against the run last year. He’s going to get a lot of volume. Yada yada yada. I hear all the smart reasons to play him, but I’m staying away. Plenty of other solid RB options – some in the same price range, some cheaper. I’m not putting my week one bankroll on the line with a Jameis Winston-led team that has one useable WR. And then you throw in Taysom Hill vulturing TDs. Winston could vulture some (we’re, of course, assuming they get close enough to the goal line). I’m staying away from this game completely. I just don’t see a 49.5 total with only a 3.5-point spread. I see way more downside than upside here.”
Another case of luck that Kamara didn’t explode, but the right decision was to fade. We had Dalvin, CMC, Henry (ugh) all around the same price. I actually said about Henry, “Can you honestly make the case to yourself that you like the situation Kamara is in more than the situation Henry is in? I can’t.” Henry was in the best game environment, was projected to be the eighth most owned RB, and was the number one RB last year. Kamara is on a team with essentially one WR, with a notorious turnover machine at QB, playing a team that went to the NFC Championship last year. The public was banking on volume and, don’t get me wrong, volume is king at the RB position, but we can’t just target volume in the face of so many other negatives, especially when we’re paying a high ownership price for it. We need to make smart pivots.
Obviously, had we known the Titans would get blown out and the Saints would blow out the Packers, we would have done things differently. Without that knowledge, we’d recommend Henry over Kamara last week 10 out of 10 times. If someone did predict those two things, let me know, I’ll subscribe to them too! Until then, we have to continue putting ourselves in the best mix of ceiling, game situation, and ownership. The points – and profit – will follow.
On to Week 2!
The thing I love best about all those popular duds last week, is that many of them will be great plays this week! Players like Ezekiel Elliott who, although not on the main slate last week, finds himself in a game with a 55-pt over/under this week. Players like Kyle Pitts, who didn’t see the results, but got the volume and targets people predicted and ran a lot of routes at WR. He’s also in a high point-total game and hopefully people will shy away from him this week. When we’re looking for these bounce-back spots we have to consider if any of the underlying facts about the player have changed? Zeke was against the top rushing defense in the NFL; that’s not the case this week. Pitts didn’t get the points but had the targets. He has the same high potential he had last week, just in a better game environment this week, and likely at a lot lower ownership level. Najee Harris played 100% of the snaps and is in a better matchup this week. That’s what we’re looking for. It’s not that we hated Pitts or Harris last week, we just didn’t like them at their high ownership when similar players were available at lower ownership. The other side of this is a player like James Robinson who saw Hyde get significant volume as well – that changes what we thought of Robinson before last week and we need to wait and see how things develop.
This week we get five games with a 50+ projected total! Lots of opportunities, many of which feature some of our favorite bounce-back candidates. What this week also means though… lots of high scores. It’s harder to win on these slates because so many players are expected to do well, but it also means we can find some opportunities at lower ownership, giving us a chance to leapfrog the field. We’ll be attacking this slate in two main ways: 1) loading up on the 50+ games, building unique rosters by using our bounce-back candidates or finding other low-owned players. 2) finding a less popular game with a close spread that could turn into a shootout. 3) building some lineups that don’t feature correlation as much, hoping to hit the high points of several different games. In a week like this, you’re likely to going to look at the million $ winning lineup and say “I could’ve made that!” There will be so many players getting high scores this week, that’s it’s going to take more luck than usual to win the big one and we’ll probably see fewer correlated stacks, unless one game total ends up much higher than the others.
One thing I like to do is, before looking at Vegas odds, look at the player pricing and see what jumps out. If players jump out to me, they’re likely to jump out to the public as well and will see high ownership as a result. Sometimes they’re worthy of high ownership and sometimes we’ll want to make smart pivots. My first glance look has me going in a few directions, some jumped out and some are bounce-back targets.
Ronald Jones + Kyle Pitts
Chubb + CLE defense
Allen + Diggs
Metcalf + Henry
Wilson + Lockett + Metcalf + Henry
Najee Harris
Ezekiel Elliott
After getting a first glance, let’s run through the players by expected ownership and see if we can make cases to support playing these first thoughts or if we should pivot away.
QB
Justin Herbert. Highest over/under of the week with a tight point spread. People are clearly expecting both sides to air it out in this contest. I’d rather get exposure to the Chargers side of this game through the WRs or Ekeler.
Dak Prescott. He was destined to be near the top of ownership as well after the shootout with the Bucs. I really want to go to Ezekiel Elliott at what should be really low ownership, but we’ll see what our lineups look like. Hard to get away from the Cowboys passing game in what could be a repeat of Week 1.
Kyler Murray. We nailed him last week as the top QB of the week. But I’m staying away this week in my main lineup. Worth a shot in some extra lineups that stack the ARI/MIN game.
Josh Allen. This one is interesting. Expect them to keep passing and want to get a win this week after letting the Steelers off the hook. I’m probably trying to add Diggs as a one-off WR in my main lineup, so I may end up pairing him with Allen to get some small leverage off of Herbert and Prescott. An Allen + Diggs lineup makes it much easier to use Zeke.
Tom Brady. Highest implied team total of the week and worth the ownership if you think the Falcons keep up the pace. I’m not sure they do. I’m more interested in going completely off the board and rolling out Ronald Jones (we’re trying to get first place or bust!) with a 12 point spread. This allows us to make an all bounce-back mini-stack with Jones and Pitts.
Russell Wilson. Always in play, but I’m more likely to use Carson given the spread. If you think Tennesse keeps up or gets out to a lead, load up Russ and get some great ownership leverage. I’ll definitely have some Wilson + Henry + Metcalf lineups in my extra lineups.
Jalen Hurts. I don’t feel like chasing points here in a touch matchup. This is a game to stack if you’re playing some extra lineups and hoping the other highly owned games bust.
Matt Stafford. I like him to keep putting up points, but, again, better options outside of a game stack here.
Tannehill/Cousins/Ryan. All three of these are in play if you’re taking the ‘catching up’ side of any of these in a game stack. All are great leverage if you’re taking expensive WRs or RBs from the popular games and need to fit in unique QB.
Jameis Winston. No thanks, but he is showing surprisingly low public ownership. I would have expected more attention after dismantling Green Bay. The other really strong game environments are taking away from his ownership here. That’s just some side commentary, no interest in Winston this week.
RB
Najee Harris. Whew. Here we are again. He got all the snaps and he probably will again. His price is too low for the volume he’s going to see, but is it worth it at this ownership level? Is he a free square or a place to get leverage on the field? I went into the week wanting to use him as a bounce-back candidate, and I might still, but I’ll see how the rest of my lineup shapes up first. If I like Carson, Ronald Jones, Zeke, and Chubb (locking him in probably) Harris may not make my roster.
Chris Carson. Surprising ownership here as well. I thought the public would latch on to Russell Wilson, but it doesn’t appear so. I like Carson here though and will likely be using him; too cheap for his potential. Better game environment than Harris, more proven than Harris. Although Harris is slightly cheaper and has the better RB matchup. Probably not a lot of people playing both Harris and Carson so that’s a way to get a little different or pick one as leverage against the other.
Alvin Kamara. I get it. All the same reasons to play him as last week. He’s active whether ahead or behind and the matchup is seemingly better this week. I’m still not likely to pay up for him this week given the other options I like.
Christian McCaffrey. Same as above. You could differentiate by playing both of these RBs this week and finding lower-priced, lower-owned pieces of the popular games. Even playing one of them gives you a lot more ownership leverage than you usually get on them. I’m not going out of my way to play either though.
Austin Ekeler. This is interesting. Chargers are the favorite and like Kamara and CMC above, he should be used in any game scenario. Versus Zeke who may disappear if the Cowboys are playing from behind as expected. Personally, I’m a little more on the Cowboys control this game and/or the game doesn’t shootout as much as expected. Always hard to go against Vegas projections though; that’s a losing bet over the long term.
Darrell Henderson Jr. Better players I like more. And I think Sony Michel starts to get more involved.
Derrick Henry. I really want to go back to Derrick Henry this week as a bounce-back. I’m just not sure he gets there in the projected game environment. I’m more likely to bank on the Titans having another rough game, with Carson controlling things for Seattle. But I’ll definitely flip the script in a lineup, maybe my secondary lineup, where I build for a game script that sees Henry get the Titans out to a lead.
Dalvin Cook. Don’t love Dalvin here. Rather take a solo shot on Jefferson (after Thielen attention last week).
Nick Chubb. I’m locking Nick Chubb in. Along with CLE defense. I think the public is scared of the price, scared of Kareem Hunt, and maybe giving the Texans too much credit from last week’s victory. I’ll take my shot at a couple of Chubb TDs.
Jonathan Taylor. Not this week. I like Hines in DK as a salary saver.
Joe Mixon. Always in play as a true workhorse back. He definitely could hit, but I’m more likely to stack the Bengals passing game with Allen Robinson on the other side in some extra lineups.
Ezekiel Elliott. I like it. All signs point to… no. But, I like it. Starting RB, who even though Pollard gets involved, does get passing game work in a game with a 55-point total with a tight spread. This isn’t projected to be a ‘Cowboys get blown out and play from behind’ game. The Cowboys will throw all day if they have to, and they have the talent to do it. But before Prescott got injured last year, most of those games were blowouts with the Cowboys climbing back with gaudy passing game stats. With the Bucs in week one, people think the Cowboys are just going to keep pushing the passing game. I still think they’re a team that wants to run the ball and they’re a team that just might make an effort to get Zeke more involved this week. Also, this is a week where you can do things that normally don’t make sense. There is room for Dak + Zeke to hit value in the same lineup. There’s room for Zeke + Lamb with or without adding Herbert/Ekeler/Allen/Guyton. You can get differentiation through some unique builds this week with so many high-total games. I like Zeke more on DK where he’s priced right around Harris and Carson. I may build around the Cowboys passing game on FD and around Zeke on DK as a way to build unique lineups and diversify some.
Damien Harris. I like Harris in some extra lineups to get leverage on Najee Harris and Carson ownership.
Davis, Montgomery, Mitchell (or Sermon), Hunt are all viable ways to pay down at RB and get massive leverage on the field. It’s surprising with the nonstop attention on Mitchell as the top waiver pickup in season-long leagues that we’re seeing him with so little DFS ownership. I also think Sermon has potential to put Mitchell numbers this week in a completely ignored spot.
Ronald Jones. Here we are… waaaay down the ownership list with a low price to match. Brady, Brady, Brady. I get it. But it’s a 12-point spread against a nonscary Altanta run defense. I’m locking him – with the understandable risk that he could fumble again or Fournette or Bernard could continue to get the work. Arians is a swell guy. And I’m betting he gives Jones every chance to feel good this week. Don’t like it? Fire up Fournette for the same reasons.
Outside of perhaps Gainwell or Pollard in some “getting cute” extra lineups, nothing else at RB to look at.
Except…
Kenyan Drake. The Josh Jacobs news isn’t reflected in ownership levels yet, but expect Drake to jump up the list. I’m still not prioritizing Drake with players like Carson not terribly more expensive, but he’s worth a look and a great salary saver if you need it. Caution though, Peyton Barber is still alive. Drake getting ownership attention will also take ownership away from players like Najee Harris and Carson, making them more viable now. And another low-priced RB option should pull ownership even further away from Kamara and CMC.
WR
CeeDee Lamb. Not sneaking up on anyone this week. Either the public is getting a lot sharper at DFS or ownership projections are inflating the way pros think. You would expect Cooper to lead the way at ownership after posting the top performance of week 1, but maybe the discount on Lamb is enough to move people in his direction. Now, we’re heading to Lamb as well, but reason for pause when he’s projected to be the most highly owned RB. That may further push us to Zeke.
Keenan Allen. Not much to be said here. Great game environment and the WR likely to see the most volume. On FD, can get different and go down to Guyton if you want. On DK stick with Allen.
Cooper Kupp. This feels like overrating last week’s performance. I expect Stafford to mix it up more and won’t be chasing points with Kupp this week.
Stefon Diggs. Great spot, great matchup. Even at the 4th highest ownership, I’m likely to try to get him in my lineups, perhaps with Allen as leverage off the LAC/DAL game.
AJ Brown. Outside of some extra lineups, where I’m mostly focused on Henry, I’m staying away from the Titans for another week.
Amari Cooper. Great pay-up spot to get leverage on Lamb ownership. Or roll out Prescott + Lamb + Cooper in an overstack of the LAC/DAL game. Could pay up to Cooper and down to Guyton for a unique mini-stack as well.
Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf. Always in play, but I prefer Carson this week. I like Metcalf better of the two though.
Ja’Marr Chase. Talent there. Sneaky game potential, but feels a bit like chasing points after his solid debut. I like him in a game stack, but may prefer going to Boyd to be different.
Mike Williams. Another way to move down from the Keenan Allen ownership levels, but Allen is in the better spot still.
Let’s jump around a bit and see what else we like.
Calvin Ridley. Great pivot off of Pitts if you like another TE better. Can keep the Jones mini-stack.
Godwin/Evans/Brown. Something has to give. Brady is the 5th highest owned QB and he does spread the ball around enough that you don’t need to prioritize one of his WRs. But with Jones and Fournette at near-zero ownership and all his WRs at such low ownership, this feels like a great game stack to leapfrog the field. Remember above when I said the winning lineup is likely to make you say, “I could’ve made that lineup!” It wouldn’t be surprising to see a Brady stack there. I still prefer Jones, but I’ll be moving a Brady stack up my list.
Justin Jefferson. Feels like Thielen and Jefferson are into the Lockett and Metcalf taking turns each week territory. I like Jefferson this week and he’s being ignored, much like Thielen was last week. Jefferson, along with Diggs, are two solo pieces I’ll be using to fill out my lineups.
Claypool/Johnson. I’ll also be prioritizing a Big Ben to Claypool/Johnson stack as a hedge against all the Harris ownership. They’re ridiculously low owned for their talent levels. If not using Harris in your main, one of these would be a great solo piece to add.
Jalen Guyton. Way too low owned for the game environment he’s in. Great way to stick to the best game, but still have a unique roster.
R Moore/Patrick/Hamler/Cooks/Peoples-Jones/Reagor/Ruggs/Edwards/Shenault/Waddle are all super cheap and super low owned pieces I’d be comfortable adding any to fill out your tourney lineups.
TE
Darren Waller. Going to be popular after getting a million targets last week and no Kelce on the main slate. If going here, I really like building that Big Ben stack as well. Otherwise, I’m paying down for Pitts and spending up elsewhere.
Tyler Higbee. Solid option, great leverage off Kupp.
George Kittle. Always in play. Kelce is Baby Gronk. Kittle is Baby Kelce.
Noah Fant. Okay option, but others I like better.
Kyle Pitts. There we are. Basically tied with Kelce last week for ownership and now just the 5th highest owned. Sign me up. Probably locking in Pitts everywhere, with the exception of individual game stacks that may include Waller/Higbee/Kittle.
Rob Gronkowski. What does he have to do? How much more Gronk can Gronk get than last week? See above about the Bucs WRs. On any given week you’re guessing which pass catcher hits, but if Gronk hits again then this ownership level would look like straight disrespect.
That’s all I like until we get all the way down to…
Gerald Everett. Great way to get Carson leverage (or even play alongside Carson and get some Lockett/Metcalf leverage).
DEF
Cleveland on top. As they should be. I’ll be stacking Chubb and CLE to get a little leverage on lineups that just play one of them.
Tampa Bay. This feels like a really strong spot, but I expect the Falcons to bounce back a little from the terrible game last week. This could easily be a Jones/Fournette + TB spot rather than a Chubb + CLE spot.
New Orleans. How do you not play the Saints after what they did to Aaron Rodgers? Or is it what Aaron Rodgers did to the Packers? Is Darnold all of a sudden getting respect? CMC may be keeping this ownership level lower than what it should be, but a Kamara + NO stack feels pretty solid.
Denver. Great spot against Jacksonville.
New England. Always in play against a rookie QB. Can throw in Damien Harris + NE.
Not going out of my way to get silly at defense with so many top options but feels like Arizona is in play as well if you want to really get low ownership on a defense that surprised a bit last week. Cook/Cousins/Thielen/Jefferson feels really comparable to Henry/Tannehill/Brown/Jones.
The Lineup Build
Let’s start at RB. I really like Carson/Chubb/Elliott/Ronald Jones and Harris (although ownership is scary). Obviously, we can’t fit all those into a lineup, so I’m likely to swap Chubb and Jones around some and pair with their defenses (dropping Pitts out if I go to Tampa Bay defense). I’ll see what builds I like around those configurations.
Easiest, most obvious path to take is to drop Zeke and start my build with Prescott. That allows me to fit Carson, Jones, and Chubb in. And Carson, Jones, and Pitts are all cheap enough that I can come back with Lamb, Allen, and another expensive WR. This feels like a “don’t fight it” lineup. It gets me a lot pieces that I like and has me eating good (hopefully) chalk in the LAC/DAL pieces. For what it’s worth, I play in mostly high-stakes tournaments where I find game theory pushes me to following chalk more often, as the other pros are more likely to fade the high ownership. Game theory for the win. This is likely where I’ll end up.
I’ll be building my secondary lineups in ways that feature correlated mini-stacks around the different RB combinations above. Make your lineup match the story you’re telling. If I drop Carson out, I’ll add Metcalf or Everett. If I drop Chubb, I could go Rojo and TB def and maybe add Cooks at WR.
These are the stacks I’ll be playing around with:
Prescott + Lamb + Allen/Guyton
Prescott + Ekeler + Lamb
Allen + Diggs (+ Ezekiel Elliott)
Brady + Evans + Godwin (Brown/Gronk) + Pitts/Ridley
Kamara + CMC (lot of cheap WRs mentioned above to help fill out a lineup with this starting stack)
Wilson + Henry + Metcalf
Roethlisberger + Claypool + Waller (then can add mini-stack around Ridley instead of Pitts)
Cousins + Jefferson + Thielen + Moore (Hopkins on DK)
Kamara + NO
Burrow + Chase/Boyd + Robinson