DFS Building Blocks – Week 1
Sunday morning update:
Sam Darnold is underpriced on DK. I’m finding myself with Darnold at QB to fit in some others, including CMC. I also like adding DJ Moore to the stack.
On FD, I’m still locked in to my top three lineups, but I’m less certain on which one I’ll make my main.
Murray + Hopkins + Henry (most likely game script, Henry gets the Titans a lead, Murray and Hopkins get volume playing from behind)
Tannehill + Brown (Hard to make Hopkins work here when also trying to roster Cook, so this roster construction isn’t as ideal without an ARI piece added, but I really like Tannehill and Brown and it’s a good hedge for my Henry lineups)
Cousins + Thielen + Boyd/Chase (I’m trying to fit Cook into my top two lineups, so I really like the Vikings passing game as a hedge here)
I really want to lock in Kelce, but it’s difficult. I’m finding myself eating the Kyle Pitts chalk to make the rest of my roster work. This leaves me scarily void of Chiefs exposure though. Will hope the improved Cleveland defense isn’t factored into the total and this game underwhelms.
I’m fitting Robinson + Cooks into all. And I really like Cook + Chase, which works with my Tannehill + Brown lineup, but not my Murray + Henry + Hopkins. I’m locking in Mostert + SF D in my main three as well. I do like some shots on Jones + Green Bay though if making multiple lineups.
The ARI/TEN game also works well with a complete overstack. Murray + Henry + Hopkins + Brown. There is enough value to make this work and it gives you leverage against the individual ownership levels while giving you exposure to the best game environment of the week. Can start the stack with Tannehill as well.
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It’s here, week 1 DFS. And it comes with clear games to target – when looking at our Betting Odds we have four games projected for 49+ and two games projected for 48+. Cleveland at Kansas City at 54.5 and Arizona at Tennessee at 53 really stand out, with ARI/TEN only a three-point spread.
We also have a lot of scenarios that we talked about in our DFS Intro that are unique to week one. Players mispriced because of a change in their role or because other players were injured – James Robinson, Colts WRs, any Ravens RB (thankfully they’re not on the main slate). And we have players who are being rostered based on last year’s performance or, in the case of rookies, pure hype. We can exploit these scenarios by leaning into smart plays and by fading pure hype plays.
For our Building Blocks this year, I’m going to approach things by talking about players in order of ownership. I’ll be using FanDuel ownership but will specify when a player’s ownership is significantly different on DraftKings and will tell you if I like a player for only one site. We talk a lot about making our lineups different and trying to find (smart) ways we can be different from the public. If these players are expected to be highly owned, that means they’re probably players you’re targeting as well, so I want to focus on helping you decide whether you should be following the crowd (eating the chalk) or pivoting (fading the chalk).
QB
Josh Allen is always in play with his rushing upside and he looks to be the highest owned QB of the week. There are other places I’d rather go this week, but if going here make it a game stack and go with Allen + Diggs + Johnson. Diggs is also popular. With neither player being as sneaky as I’d want them to be, stacking gives you some leverage off the individually high ownership levels. Remember, we’re concerned about the uniqueness of our entire roster, not just the individual plays. Stacking allows us to roster some highly owned players while getting differentiation (leverage) on people just playing one of the players.
Mahomes is always in play. Not much to say here. Highest over/under of the week; highest implied team total of the week. I’ll be locking in Kelce so it may be hard to get a Mahomes + Kelce stack (although there is enough value in other places that you can do it). I also don’t love any Cleveland players on the other side, so I’m most likely to roster Kelce and look elsewhere for QB.
Kyler Murray is in the second highest over/under with a tighter spread than CLE/KC making him a great target. He’ll be popular but QB is never a spot where we have to worry about ownership as much. The most popular QBs usually cap out around 20%, where RBs and WRs can see much higher ownership levels. Murray has the rushing floor, game script, and passing upside to pay off. A Murray + Hopkins stack would be really nice; only problem is choosing who to come back with on the other side… Henry, Brown, Julio Jones? Any are feasible, but tough to pick. When choosing between Henry or one of the WRs you have to pick the game flow – do the Titans build a lead through Henry or are they in a back-and-forth passing battle? The nice thing about Murray + Hopkins is they’re good in either of those game flows. Just like we talked about for single-game slates, we want to tell a story with our lineups and use correlations (QB + WR, RB + DEF, QB + WR + opposing WR, etc) to fully leverage the story we’re telling.
Russell Wilson looks to be in for a strong year, potentially getting an aggressive passing game approach this year, but let’s wait a week. The Colts have a solid, perhaps underrated, defense and we can find better spots at QB. Now, that said, the game does have a 49.5 over/under with a three-point spread. If making multiple lineups, I’d certainly throw in some Wilson + Lockett/Metcalf/Everett lineups. Pittman is getting all the attention on the other side, making Campbell a great addition to this stack (and even a great standalone play at less than 1% ownership). I like a Wilson stack better on DK than FD.
Jalen Hurts has a decent floor and a ceiling as high as anyone on the slate in a 48.5 over/under with a tight spread. Hurts alone, without stacking one of his WRs (because of his rushing upside) is a fine option if you want to go that route. Great option if you’re playing Pitts at TE, but more on that later.
Ryan Tannehill. I started the week with Tannehill and AJ Brown in mind. But see above, I may have talked myself into Murray + Hopkins instead. This one is really a guess, so play it however you want. I primarily play in some high-stakes single-entry tournaments, but I also put a decent number of lineups in the smaller-fee FD and DK million-dollar tournaments. When doing so, one of things I like to do is focus on a single game and build lineups for lots of different scenarios. Build a Murray + Hopkins + Henry lineup. Build a Murray + Hopkins + Brown. Build a Murray + Hopkins + Jones. Build a Tannehill + Brown + Hopkins. Build a Tannehill + Jones + Hopkins. Build a Tannehill + Jones + Brown + Hopkins. You get the idea. When you hear people talk about “the game is rigged” and the “experts have all the advantage”, yes, they’re using optimizers to help build 150 of these scenarios, but they’re basically just doing what I did above. Think through game scenarios that make sense and build a lineup that matches – you don’t need an optimizer to do that. This method is especially helpful when you’re fading the chalk. If Dalvin Cook is 25% owned and you think that’s too high, build a Cousins + Thielen/Jefferson lineup. You’re purposely building toward a game scenario that benefits you if Cook busts, as you’re predicting.
Tannehill and any of the QBs above him are okay cash plays as well, always preferring those with rushing upside though.
Burrow and Lawrence. In play if you want, but I’m passing. Robinson will be chalk at RB, so there’s a case for playing a Lawrence stack if making multiple lineups.
Matt Ryan, okay play, but I’d rather just play Hurts in the same game.
Sam Darnold. Similar to Lawrence above, if you’re not playing a Christian McCaffrey lineup, you can build a Darnold + Anderson “revenge game” lineup instead.
Aaron Rodgers. I’m mostly staying away from this game.
Jameis Winston. No thanks.
Mac Jones. Not this week.
Kirk Cousins. I lean toward Cook in this game, but wouldn’t hate a Cousins + Thielen stack. And, upon looking again, Jefferson and Thielen are both expected to be surprisingly low owned. Cousins won’t make it into my main lineup, but a Cousins + Thielen/Jefferson + Bengals WR stack will definitely make into my top handful of lineups. That’s another thing I like to do. I like to make a few key lineups that fade the chalk. I may take smart chalk in my main lineup, but if there are a few highly owned plays in a week, I want to have some lineups that leverage a game flow where the chalk busts. Cook is popular, for good reason this week, so I’ll get at least one lineup that benefits if he busts.
Zach Wilson. I don’t love playing rookies in Week 1, but the name of the game is being ahead of the crowd. It’s a low over/under game with the Jets expected to be behind. In that scenario – or in a scenario where the Jets stay competitive – it probably means a lot of volume for Wilson. I like this with a CMC stack to get leverage on the individual ownership of CMC.
Justin Herbert. Just imagine a world where a rookie QB, on the Jets no less, is projected to be higher owned than Justin Herbert. Or a world where Jameis Winston is projected higher… The Washington defense is legitimate, but this feels like disrespect. Now, I won’t be playing Herbert in my main lineup, that’s getting a little too cute, but it’s only a one-point spread, with Fitzpatrick on the other side, so it would not at all be a surprise to look back on this week and say, “I can’t believe we all missed that shootout.” Herbert + Allen may make it into my top three lineups, particularly on DK where you can really benefit from Allen’s volume. Fitzpatrick on the other side is okay if making multiple lineups, but I’ll wait and see how he does.
RB
Alvin Kamara. Ugh. He’s near 30% ownership playing a Packers defense that wasn’t great against the run last year. He’s going to get a lot of volume. Yada yada yada. I hear all the smart reasons to play him, but I’m staying away. Plenty of other solid RB options – some in the same price range, some cheaper. I’m not putting my week one bankroll on the line with a Jameis Winston-led team that has one useable WR. And then you throw in Taysom Hill vulturing TDs. Winston could vulture some (we’re, of course, assuming they get close enough to the goal line). I’m staying away from this game completely. I just don’t see a 49.5 total with only a 3.5-point spread. I see way more downside than upside here.
Dalvin Cook. I like this play. He’s popular but for good reason and doesn’t have all the downside that Kamara has. My only hesitation is I like some cheaper RBs a lot too, so I may not get him into my main lineup. We’ll see what else we find here, then revisit at the end. Probably the best cash RB of the slate.
James Robinson. Lock him in. I actually thought the “sexiness” of Trevor Lawrence would take some ownership away from Robinson, but it doesn’t appear to be the case. I like Robinson to outperform Kamara straight-up this week (bold prediction alert!) so I’m definitely going to lock him in with a significant salary savings on both FD and DK. I’m locking him in to cash and tourney lineups.
Christian McCaffrey. Always hard to pass on CMC. Let’s think about why we might and then see if those are good enough reasons. Coming back from injury. New QB, new WRs. Playing the “lowly” Jets and may need to get a ton of work. Meh. I think it’s more likely we see CMC used in his traditional high-volume ways to help get Darnold settled. Now, if we’re looking for a better reason to fade him, it’s that we have a lot of other solid options, so play with your roster and see how it looks with and without CMC. And follow your heart, that’s what I always do. You may not see him priced this low again all season. And it’s easy to stack that game (Wilson + Moore) to get some leverage on CMC’s individual ownership. He’s expected to be the highest owned RB on DK but only the fourth highest on FD; you don’t get to say that very often. I’ll probably have this Wilson + Moore + CMC lineup in my top handful of lineups.
Najee Harris. Hype much? I get it – he’s all they have. But what else do they have? A bad offensive line. And a bad matchup. And a team and QB that isn’t afraid to just keep throwing it. Yes, that means Najee can get a lot of receiving volume, but I’m staying away. He feels cheap, but I think the hype is priced in already. He’s more expensive than James Robinson and Raheem Mostert with way better matchups. Could this backfire? Of course. Any pick can, but I’m old enough to remember Clyde Edwards-Helaire last year. I’ll be fading Najee here. If you want to play him, play him on DK where you’re telling the story of his receiving volume being the way he hits value.
Antonio Gibson. Okay, but not really interested this week in a potentially low scoring game.
Joe Mixon. No more Bernard and in a tight game. I like him but am probably not prioritizing him. Although, I may add him to my Cousins + Thielen lineup, because it fits the story I’m telling there. I’d rather go Cook + Bengals WR in my main lineup, but if I’m in a salary crunch, I wouldn’t mind Mixon. He has as much upside as any RB on the slate.
Derrick Henry. Wow, we’ve talked about a lot of RBs before getting to last year’s number one RB. Projected to be the eighth highest owned RB on FD, where his skillset makes him a better fit than on DK. One of the things that led us to a Murray + Hopkins (or even Murray naked) stack was that we weren’t sure where to go on the other side. Do the Titans try to get Julio Jones going? Does Julio Jones play endzone decoy like it seemed he did so often in Atlanta? Or do the Titans lean into Henry like they want to? Does Henry start the year slow like he has in years past? In the end, for me, we have more reasons to like Henry than we do to not like him. Can you honestly make the case to yourself that you like the situation Kamara is in more than the situation Henry is in? I can’t. It’s starting to look like a Murray + Hopkins + Henry stack for me. But, as I almost always do with Henry, I’ll have a hedge lineup that fades him, one of the Tannehill stacks we talked about earlier.
Raheem Mostert. What to do about Trey Sermon? Sermon was being drafted in season-long leagues with the expectation that he would take over at some point in the season. That may be the case. But we’re not at some point in the season. We’re at week one. Mostert is seemingly healthy on a team that wants to run the ball playing against a team that is the WORST at stopping the run. Could he lose goal-line carries to Sermon? Yes. But I think the 49ers give him every chance to excel here and get a solid game behind him. I also give Mostert as good a chance at running in a long-ish score as I give him to lose some goal-line TDs to Sermon. This may be the only week we can play him, so I’m going to play him. He also makes a great stack with the SF defense. I probably wouldn’t play him in cash alone, but I may consider playing him and Sermon in cash locking in the best running game environment of the week.
Mike Davis. Okay, but I’ll wait for a better matchup to play him. I don’t mind him as a pivot from the Kyle Pitts chalk when making multiple lineups.
Aaron Jones. I’m skipping this game.
Jonathan Taylor. I’m a little hesitant, preferring to wait and see what Carson Wentz does and with Mack back and Hines still in the mix. But Taylor makes sense in some Wilson stacks if you’re going there.
Last RB with any interest for me is James White. I’ve got some cheap players, but I’m also trying to jam in some expensive chalk, so someone like White might be needed on my lineup. He fits well with Mac Jones and we may see the Patriots try to resurrect him. He’s cheap and has potential for enough receiving volume to pay off. If he steals a TD, even better. It’s not the most comfortable play, but if you’re comfortable with your entire lineup, you’re probably not playing to win. We need make smart pivots in order to build a unique lineup that has potential to get first place. If he can return to form, we’ll look back at this price as being too cheap for James White.
WR
By the time we get to WRs you’ve already got a good sense of what games I like and what stacks I’m leaning toward. So I’ll generally have less individual commentary on WRs (and TEs) but will try to hit the highlights and find some cheap options you can use to fill out your lineup. You can also use our Ratings Matrix to find players with high value ratings (Value/$) to fill out the last pieces of your lineup.
Marquez Callaway. What? Has the whole world gone crazy? How are we starting here with Callaway as the most popular option? I’m staying far away. He should get the Jaire Alexander treatment from the Packers. That alone is enough to avoid him. This seems like a silly attempt by the public to lock in volume. I get the “have to throw it to someone” narrative, but this team is a mess. I’ll give you 50/50 on whether Callaway or Alexander catches more of Winston’s passes! That may be a slight exaggeration, but, even at this cheap price, I’m staying away from Callaway.
Stefon Diggs. Talked about him earlier. Great play, but you’re eating the chalk if you go here. It is good chalk though.
Tyreek Hill. Always in play, but I’m heading to Kelce this week.
Calvin Ridley. Solid option, but I’m probably building around some cheaper WRs or some other expensive options, with similar upside (Hopkins, Thielen).
Davante Adams. Not this week. I’m hoping for a dud this week and an Aaron Jones show next week, then I’ll load up on Adams in Week 4 (the next time he’s on the main slate, FYI).
Terry McLaurin. I’ll wait and see. Not the greatest matchup or game for us to target.
Michael Pittman. Too popular for my taste, I’ll take Campbell at much lower ownership.
DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, please. Seems to be lost in the mix with Ridley and Diggs priced just below him. I’ll take Hopkins in a game with a 53 over/under.
Lockett/Metcalf. Okay options, but not targets for me outside of multiple lineup rosters.
Tee Higgins/Chase/Boyd. Can boom, but I’d rather play Chase or Boyd at lower ownership, particularly like Boyd on DK. His best games were with AJ Green. Higgins and Chase will hopefully draw attention away from Boyd.
Elijah Moore. DK-only play for me. Too cheap there.
That’s the top-12 for FD ownership. Let’s see who else jumps out at us.
AJ Brown at only 10%. Julio Jones at only 2%. We already know Henry is low owned. What gives? Tannehill is the sixth highest owned QB? Something doesn’t add up here and it’s a situation we can exploit… if we get it right. Again, this game has a 53 over/under. If Henry isn’t getting a lot of love, then Brown or Julio surely has to be, right? They’re all priced to the point that that may be what is keeping ownership down, but their ownership levels are too low for their individual upsides in a tournament. Pick the passing angle or the rushing angle, but one of these angles must be under owned. Potentially embarrassingly under owned.
Marvin Jones. If you’re fading James Robinson (I’m not) I like Jones as my preferred stack with Lawrence.
Diontae Johnson feels too cheap. Tough matchup, but I suspect all the Najee Harris love is pulling ownership away here. I think the game script is far more favorable to Johnson.
Adam Thielen is the forgotten man after Jefferson’s rise last year. This is a great way to pivot away from Cook.
Brandin Cooks. “They have to throw it to someone!” This game and matchup set up well for Cooks, particularly on DK. I like him on FD too if you need a cheaper option, but not as great a fit there. Good mini-stack with Robinson though. If you’re new here, we like building a primary game stack, then filling out our roster with a couple mini-stacks. This Robinson + Cooks is a great mini-stack to add to any of our primary builds.
Russell Gage. Great leverage play from the Ridley and Pitts lineups.
Parris Campbell. One of the best “mispriced” options after the TY Hilton injury.
Demarcus Robinson. More of a dart throw, but is Mecole Hardman really the number two WR now? Fool me once…
Nico Collins. Has the size you want and is way off the radar (appropriately so) but viable if you need.
A.J. Green. Go wild. Throw him into a deep tourney lineup.
TE
Kyle Pitts/Travis Kelce. He might be a monster. He might score four TDs. He might be the second coming. Or he might be a rookie starting his first NFL game for a team that has a lot of new pieces. He’s too cheap on DK for his potential upside – almost half the salary of Kelce, versus 3/4th on FD. I’ll want some DK lineups that go to Kelce instead, but my main there is likely to have Pitts. On FD though, I’m locking in Kelce in a great TE matchup at a price and relative ownership level that is too low.
I’m really not interested in a lot of other TEs.
Logan Thomas okay, but upside capped with Fitz. But he may have to step in and take more receiving volume this year too.
Gerald Everett as an upside play on a new team.
Jonnu Smith wouldn’t be this low owned if he were still playing for the Titans.
Austin Hooper is interesting against KC.
DEF
Denver. Lot of upside. Solid play here at an affordable price. But not my top target.
Buffalo. Surprising ownership given how much the public also loves Najee Harris. I think the Buffalo defense call is more correct than the Harris call though.
Atlanta. Picking up ownership because Hurts has turnover potential. Go back to some earlier players and think about what story this tells… Atlanta gets some turnovers, some short fields, plays with a lead… that points to Mike Davis rather than Ridley and Pitts. Build accordingly if you’re in the Atlanta defense camp.
New York Jets. What? Were the Jets the problem or was Darnold the problem? I don’t have any interest in targeting a CMC team with my defense.
Minnesota. Improved run defense, so an option to mini-stack with Cook. But otherwise not a target for me.
San Francisco. This is where I’m going. I’ll differentiate by paying up for the most expensive defense on the slate and pair with Mostert. Detroit may give Houston a run for their money as worst team season-long and will definitely give them a run for their money this week. I normally play a few defenses, but I’m probably locking in San Fran everywhere this week.
Green Bay is interesting. Given my take on the sorry state of affairs I expect in New Orleans, it makes sense for me to build some Green Bay lineups as well. Great way to get leverage on the Kamara ownership.
The Lineup Build
I’ve settled into Murray + Hopkins on my main build. I’ll be locking in James Robinson and trying to add Cooks for a mini-stack. I’m locking in SF and Mostert. And I’m locking in Kelce. I can make this work if I take a shot on James White and use Julio Jones (instead of Henry). If I want to squeeze in Henry, going down to Pitts makes it work. I like the look of that build, but I really want to lock in Kelce. I’ll keep tinkering, but this is where I’m headed.
For my other tournament lineups, I’ll be mixing in these stacks.
Cousins + Thielen + Boyd/Chase
Tannehill + Brown + Julio + Hopkins
Allen + Diggs + Johnson
Z Wilson + CMC + E Moore
Herbert + Allen (potentially adding Thomas)
Darnold + CMC + Anderson + E Moore (QB + RB + WR can be a nice, differentiated stack in the right scenarios)
Aaron Jones + Green Bay
Hurts/Ryan + Pitts
Hurts/Ryan + Gage
Wilson + Lockett/Metcalf/Everett + Campbell