Well, we’ve made it to the end. One more two-game slate to cover. One more chance to win the big one.
Just like the last couple weeks, we’re trying to build a unique lineup that can win it all. We’re not taking the most obvious lineups; we’re looking to get some leverage on the field. We can do that by mixing in some low-owned players, by making some non-traditional stacks, or by building around an unexpected game script.
With only two games it’s easy to find leverage spots. There are usually some players that are so highly owned that you can get a significant advantage by fading them. Now, they’re highly owned because they’re the “best” plays but that’s not what we’re after this week. So let’s see where we can find our advantage.
Mahomes and Allen will be the most popular, maybe three times as popular as Rodgers and Brady. So that means two lineups: 1) A Mahomes or Allen stack with some low-owned players mixed in. 2) A Brady or Rodgers stack mostly fading the Chiefs and Bills. Let’s see what those could look like.
- Mahomes stack. Go full chalk with Mahomes, Hill, Kelce. To make this work you’ll have to come back with Brown or Beasley rather than Diggs. Then get a little unique on your other pieces. Maybe you play Ronald Jones and Fournette with the Bucs DEF. Maybe you add Edwards-Helaire for a full Chiefs stack. You’ll get exposure to the chalk, but you’ll have some unique stacks that will give you some leverage.
- Aaron Jones and Fournette figure to be the most popular RB plays. You can skip them all together in this lineup or stack them with their QB. Because Aaron Jones should be the most popular RB, my path here is Rodgers + Adams + Ronald Jones (rather than Fournette). I’m fading the Chiefs chalk pieces here, so maybe I add Edwards-Helaire. Or maybe I go full fade and throw in a Singletary + Bills DEF stack. All it takes is a couple turnovers for an unexpected DEF to lead the field. You have to make some bold picks in this lineup.
For both lineups, WR ownership is expected to be pretty even at the top. All the names you’d suspect in the range of 30 to 40% owned – Adams, Hill, Diggs, Godwin, Evans, then even Brown and Beasley. So the clear path to leverage here is a player like Lazard, Watkins, Hardman, or even Valdes-Scantling. Scotty Miller is also in play with Antonio Brown already ruled out.
These are the low-owned pieces you can add to lineup 1 or the core stacks you can build in lineup 2. A Rodgers + Lazard + Valdes-Scantling stack. Throw in Scotty Miller on the other side. You’ll be left with enough salary to do anything you want… could then add Hill and Kelce. Could add Aaron Jones as well. Lot of different ways you can go.
Remember, there is no wrong way this weekend. These two-game slates are the time to get silly. Make a lineup you’d never dream of making during the regular season and just have fun. You probably won’t win, but if it hits, you’ll win all the money rather than sharing it with 1,000 other people.