Week 15 DK Building Blocks
No bye weeks anymore, but the NFL has placed two games on Saturday which condenses the player pool for Sunday. There are some extremely chalky plays but unlike the past few weeks it’s more about the spots that they’re in as opposed to them being mega value. The list does concern me a bit as some of these plays I knew would have higher ownership, but some I thought would be a bit more sneaky. Alas, we’ll have some decisions to make in constructing our lineups tomorrow. Make sure you join us on the live stream at 10:30 am where I’ll have some final thoughts.
Alvin Kamara ($7,400)- 37%
From a situation perspective, there really isn’t a much better one for AK. First, his price has been depressed from playing alongside Taysom Hill and having a reduced role. Drew Brees returning was the first positive sign for Kamara, the second was Michael Thomas sitting out all of a sudden. We now return to AK as the focal point of this offense, and without the salary adjusted for it. Pair those two things with the match up being one that could be one in which the Saints trail the Chiefs and the storm comes together perfectly. The icing of course is the Chiefs defense that has been as a whole, fairly solid, has ceded points to the RB position all year.
To be clear, I think Kamara has a pretty high floor in this match up. I haven’t really decided where I’m going to end up on him from an ownership perspective. There really aren’t many players that give you ultimate leverage from the Kamara play. He’s going to get a bulk of his points from receptions and the yards. He can very easily make his value without even scoring. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,200) is looking like he’s going to 20%+ owned, so while there is some leverage if he gobbles up all the scores, he’s still fairly chalky. Jared Cook ($3,200) 11% is interesting in a position that’s been hard to fill this year. He’s still looking like the 3rd or 4th highest owned TE.
Cam Akers ($6,600) – 25%
This is the one I’m the most surprised about. While Cam has looked like the best back in recent weeks and has been getting the workload to match. It’s still hard for me to distance my thoughts of what happened early in the year with this backfield. In addition, the Jets have been a decent defense against fantasy running backs and I begin to chill on this play. Early in the week, he was clearly one of my favorite plays, but this is a tough % to swallow.
Unlike the earlier play, this one is fairly easy to identify the ways to move off of. Cooper Kupp ($7,000) and Robert Woods ($6,800) both present options to attack a bad Jets defense. They look to be sub 10% and have a real chance for one or both to explode. The Jets have given up up 40+ points 6 times to WR, 50+ 4 times, and even 2 games of over 60 points. I lean towards Woods for the slight price defense and the 19 targets over the last two games since Akers has emerged versus Kupp’s 14.
Derrick Henry ($9,500) – 24%
This price is getting harder and harder to stomach every week. It always does and I’m always on the outside looking in on his massive games. To be fair I’m also on the right side of things when he fails, and this week despite one of the best possible match-ups has a chance to do so. Henry’s lack of involvement in the passing game is the biggest knock on his upside, of course, we could see him go for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. My approach on this will be right around the field at 25-35%. I want to have exposure in case he abuses the Lions, and make no mistake the Titans are going to score points.
Like the last match up the places, we can get off of Henry are pretty clear. Corey Davis ($5,800) 8% is my favorite spot. I understand that he had a bad performance last week. But he was far chalky then and the matchup is pretty much the same. This game probably is closer than the spread implies so I expect Davis to get some more work than he did last week when he only saw three targets. It’s fitting that A.J. Brown ($7,600) 7% was wearing a Julio jersey last week in warm-ups. Like Julio, he’s a beast, and like Julio, he seems like he’s always dinged up, but it never seems to matter. He still produces at an elite clip and finds the end zone at a higher rate than Davis. Of course, you’re paying a much higher premium for him but I’m okay with that. There have been enough games where Brown was just shy of the 100-yard bonus, if he can get over that hump w/ a score and the volume he’s going to easily crush his expected number. He tends to correlate well with Henry. So it would appear Davis is the “True Leverage” play.
Leonard Fournette ($4,500) – 20%
Okay, I lied. There is a player on here simply due to pricing and it’s Lenny. With Ronald Jones ruled out Fournette looks like he should see the majority of the snaps for the Bucs against a soft Falcons defense. His ability to gain yardage on the ground has continued this year to be less than impressive. His role as running back that can catch passes works well with Tom Brady and can help overcome the 3 yards or less that he rushes. I’m not crazy about Lenny this week, but at that price, he’s hard to ignore.
Take your pick from just about anyone on the Buc side of things for leverage. Mike Evans ($6,500), Chris Godwin ($6,200), and Antonio Brown ($5,400). Can all have big games, finding the end zone and limiting the upside for Fournette. The big thing to think about is that unlike the price tags of the earlier backs, Fournette needs only something like 60 yards, 5 catches for 30 yards to hit his 3x mark.
Other notable ownership
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300) – 20%
This one makes me mad. What can you do? With Kittle not expected to make his return and a game against the Cowboy’s it makes sense. Another volume guy that doesn’t need to score to make his number.
TY Hilton ($5,500) – 15%
Jonathan Taylor ($7,200) – 18% also seems to be taking a huge chunk of ownership. I’d look at either Pittman or Hines to leverage off these guys.
Lions @ Titans (-11.5) O/U 52.5
This game is going to have some points put up. I suspect it ends up closer than this line and the Lion’s side total and spread will be in my best bets. I love stacking this a ton of different ways.
Chiefs @ Saints (+3) O/U 52
I like taking the Chiefs side of this game with Hill or Kelce and running it back with Kamara. Heck, I might try and make a way for all of them to fit.
Jared Goff ($6,300)
Deshaun Watson ($6,800)
Jalen Hurts ($5,900)
Kenyan Drake ($5,500)
Nick Chubb ($7.700)
Miles Sanders ($6,900)
JuJu Smith Schuster ($6,000)
Russell Gage ($4,700)
Justin Jefferson ($7,300)
Terry McLaurin (($6,600) – Was always better w/ Haskins
Eric Ebron ($4,400)
Rob Gronkowski ($4,200)
Dalton Schultz ($3,200)