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Thursday Night NFL Showdown – October 29th

Let’s look at the Thursday Night NFL showdown!

ATL Falcons (49.5)

@

CAR Panther (-3)

Don’t stress each individual player. Don’t make it that hard on yourself. Find your story on how the game will play out and apply that across the board. If you make sense of the game flow needed for the outcome you will believe will happen then all the players should neatly fall into line.

I’m actually fairly intrigued by this game. The Falcons are giving up 333 passing yards a game and the Panthers are giving up ridiculous numbers to RBs that can catch the ball. Though Carolina’s defense has been in the top 3rd, they aren’t really great in any spot and are among the absolute worst at stopping 3rd down conversions at a whopping 56.3% conversion against rate. This will also most likely be the last chance Mike Davis has to impersonate CMC. I expect this game to go well over this opening 49.5 total. You should get your over bets in NOW with your local sportsbook before it goes up!

 

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The Breakdown

Matt Ryan (21) 325 2TD

Such a confusing team. This should be a no brainer with the weapons this team has. Sadly he has only hit this number 3 of 7 weeks so far. The Panthers are top 10 against the pass and have really struggled against a solid run game. On the road, in division, I like this game to go over but I worry it won’t all be through the air. I want to play at least 1 of the WRs for the Falcons so I am fading this pick. He’s only going to get it if he throws 3 TD’s. Only Brees and Murray did it this year and only because of Murray’s rushing yards and Brees happened to run one in. I don’t see it for Matty. UNDER

Teddy Bridgewater (21) 275 2TD and 20 yards rushing

The easy thing to do is just take the over here. Teddy scored 20.8 last time in this format and Stafford came just shy of it by only throwing 1 TD with his 350 yards. All other QB’s went over on the year. So I am a healthy OVER here.

Todd Gurley (16.5) 55 Yards & TD with 3 catch for 20 yards

He is averaging a TD a game on the ground. He’s Averaging 69 yards a game on the ground. Now do you believe he can add 2-3 catches for 15-20 yards? Against this Panthers team that is an emphatic yes. Click that OVER!

Julio Jones (18.4) 75 Yards and 5 catches and a TD

Julio destroys the Panthers for a hobby. Over 15 games he is averaging 5.5 catches on 9.5 targets for 92.7 yards and TD every other game. Don’t forget the famous 300 yard game was against Carolina as well! All to say I am on the OVER here because I believe that TD is coming.

Robby Anderson (17.5) 8 catches 95

Robby just doesn’t score. But he really doesn’t have to in order to get over here. There is a high likelihood of snaps for both sides in this game and I think he can get there with or without a TD. It’s super close, and I would probably find my picks somewhere else but I am leaning the OVER in this game.

Calvin Ridley (18.4) 5 catches 75 yards and a TD

Same exact line as Julio and same exact reasoning. I think both guys can hit their numbers and score. I could easily see it happening with probably the best one/two punch in football at WR. I’m in on this as well. I know I am predicting that both Ridley and Jones get their numbers and Ryan falls short of his but that is a reality that not only is possible, but likely.

DJ Moore (16) 5 catches 50 yards and a TD

I guess I just like the over everywhere! I love the DJ Moore touchdown prop, I like him for the first TD of the game and I like him to hit this projection with no real issue. Give me all the DJ Moore OVER

Hayden Hurst (9.2) 4 catches 55 yards

Finally you are going to get an under from me. Hurst has not fit in like Hooper had in the past few years. He just isn’t as athletic or elusive in coverage. Big plays are going to the big 3 in this offense this week. Without a TD I can’t find a way he gets there so I am a firm UNDER.

Curtis Samuel (10) 5 catches 50 yards.

The only TD he has had on the year was a running play last week. I don’t like his scoring chances even in this matchup. He has only gone over this line twice and one was only due to the rushing score. I think it’s a fairly safe UNDER.

Joey Slye (9) 2 Field Goals (30+ and 40+) with 2 Extra Points

I kinda love this play. I’m not always fond of kickers because they are so sporadic but I could see that stat line easy. I like the Panther for 3 TDs and at least 2 FGs. love this OVER

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

 

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