Sunday Night NFL Showdown – October 18th
Let’s look at the Sunday Night NFL showdown!
LA Rams -2.5
@
SF 49ers (51.5)
You have a free-falling Niners facing off against the red-hot Rams. San Fran seems healthier than they have been all year with Mostert, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, and Jimmy Grapes all in action tonight! Their defense is still struggling and without Sherman but does get slightly healthier in the secondary.
Rams are full-powered with their three-headed monster backfield of guys that can all get it done. The trick is finding which one. I hate picking Rams players because you have so many parts that can take off as even the backup TE is worthy of consideration in DFS.
I like this score actually to go under 51.5 but I can understand if you land on the other side. The trick to choosing these over/unders is making the game narrative make sense in your head and playing accordingly.
I like both teams’ running games in a hard-fought divisional game in a grudge match for one team to prove last year wasn’t a fluke and for the other to keep pace with Seattle for the division lead. I don’t really think either team is going to be in a fast-paced pushing style tonight and could see only 3-4 TDs happening on the night. That being the case I like the running games and am not really high on either QB.
49ers were shredded last week by Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki, but so far this year they have not really been weak in those zones. Cooper Kupp is a hell of a football player when he and Goff are in sync and both TE’s for the Rams have upside. On the other side, the Niners are a top 2 or 3 rushing team and have all the horses in their stable healthy and ready to go. I expect a bunch of Mostert and play-action passes.
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The Breakdown
Jared Goff (20.5) 225 3TD
That just seems high in the match up. Goff needs well over 300 yards or 3 TDs. As I stated above I don’t like the pace of this game being that high. I just like the running game more. I’m a fairly solid UNDER here.
Jimmy Garoppolo (16.5) 200 2TD
This feels pretty achievable given the health of the players around him but Jimmy hasn’t been sharp. Add an INT possibility in there and a reliance on the run and I can see several ways he doesn’t get there. UNDER again.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (12) 60 Yards & TD
Picking the right running back that will go off is tough here as Brown has also been excellent when given the opportunity and the future star Akers is another week off the injury list. If Henderson gets the lead touches he goes over but since there are two other guys there I am going UNDER.
Raheem Mostert (15) 65 Yards, 3 catches and a TD
When healthy he seems to be a focal point of the offense. I like this as a pretty confident OVER unless they get behind fast and are forced to throw more.
Cooper Kupp (16.5) 6 catches 105 yards
I like Cupp most of all the weapons today. He could easily see double-digit short targets and always a chance to score. He is my guy I see succeeding and therefore am taking the OVER.
Deebo Samuel (12) 4 catches 80 yards
With all the weapons back I don’t see them relying on Deebo as much as they did last year. If you think he gets in the endzone this is an over but I like other parts more this week. I’m going UNDER.
Robert Woods (16) 6 catches 100 yards
I think the Niners will be able to contain Woods. There isn’t enough offense to go around to like the over on both he and Kupp so that defaults me to the UNDER here.
Brandon Aiyuk (10) 4 catches 60 yards
I like how they have used him when other guys were out but with Deebo a week healthier and the RBs all back and ready to rumble I am sadly on the UNDER on this exciting rookie.
Tyler Higbee (8) 4 catches 40 yards
Higbee and Everett seem to trade off on good weeks but I don’t really like either as the Niners have been solid versus traditional TEs. I prefer Everett this week anyway. Again I am on the UNDER.
George Kittle (16.5) 5 catches 60 yards and a TD
If you see George scoring like I do I don’t see any way he goes under. The true focal point of the offense is to force the box to tighten on the run and play-action pass to Kittle. I see this in the cards all night long and am smashing the OVER!
As always I don’t really play kickers though I lean OVER on both and I don’t do IDP so if you want to play defensive players there are all kinds of great IDP info out there for you to find.
Good Luck!!!
-Jonny Danger
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