NFL Showdown October 8
10/8 NLF Showdown
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We have the current lowest point total of the week to start off our Thursday Night Game!
A couple of rules. You can’t pair up a QB with their own WR or TE. Normally that is a bummer for me during single-game slates but not tonight baby!
1 Pt per 25 passing yards
4 Pts per passing TD
1 Pt per 10 yards rushing
1 Pt per 10 yards receiving
1 Pt per reception
6 Pt per rushing or receiving TD
-1 Pt per Interception
-1 Pt per Fumble
Let’s Break it down!
CHI (44.0 O/U)
I’m not crazy about this game and if was a main-slate DFS contest I would most likely avoid. That is what is great about PrizePicks though, even if you aren’t excited about any of these guys in season-long or DFS contests we can still get in on the action!
As my boy Chris Emrick says, let’s not focus on being right, instead come up with the scenarios that could happen and tell the story of how the game will go.
Some key stats to think about:
TB ranked #2 in stopping rushing yards
TB ranked #4 DVOA against the passing game
CHI ranked #5 DVOA against the passing game
CHI very good at stopping 3rd downs and minimizing TDs in the Red Zone.
CHI given up only 3 passing TDs this year and all to TEs
I’m down with Vegas in that it should be a low scoring game. I hate the matchups for both Evans (banged up and facing Jaylon Johnson) and Robinson (possibly drawing majority coverage by Carlton Davis), however, there will be no denying their volume upside. The weakness of both defenses is more likely against the run, so I like the RB’s on both sides more than the receiving options, and also like the TE’s to be the bigger story.
Let’s get into the picks!
Tom Brady (18) 250 yards 2 TD
Normally that line is pretty solid Brady output. I fear his less-than-healthy WRs will be an issue and the Bears will concede the TEs to keep Evans out of play. I’m taking the UNDER here and so are my cohosts if you listened to our live weekly show last night on our Facebook page (Draught For Upside).
Nick Foles (16) 200 Yards 2 TD
The Chicago passing game should struggle here and the game plan will be run the ball and control clock. If you think the Bears cover tonight or even have a chance to win as I do then this is the way. Firm UNDER for me but my cohosts both like the over as they think TB gets out to a lead and the Bears have to abandon their game plan.
Ronald Jones (15) 75 yards 4 catches for 35 yards
I just have this feeling that even though this game favors the RBs that TB will use TEs in the endzone, will rely on their kicking game, and will use Tom Brady at the goal line more than Jones. Not to mention some buzz about Vaughn stealing some touches. All three of us said to take the UNDER here.
David Montgomery (12) 60 yards and a TD
Coming around from last night and seeing Monty getting more involved in passing downs has me switching lanes. TD potential is high here and a couple grabs out of the backfield and this is an easy over. I’m with Chris on this and taking the OVER.
Rob Gronkowski (7) 4 catches 30 yards
I haven’t wavered on my initial thoughts of a Gronk TD tonight. Even without it that total is reachable in a game without Godwin, Watson, Howard, and banged up Evans and Miller. I’m feeling really good on the OVER here against the advice of Mark and Chris.
Jimmy Graham (7.5) 4 catches 35 yards
Though I have been touting the TE game for tonight, the one I’m least confident in is Graham. The TB Def isn’t great against the TE so this is a spot I’m not sure on. I’m avoiding this spot even though I am playing him in the DFS Showdown! Mark and Chris both said under for what it’s worth and if I’m forced to pick then I’m on the UNDER as well.
Mike Evans (13) 6 catches for 70 yards
As I said before I hate his match up and the Bears are sick against #1 WR and the passing game in general. I don’t like the injury possibility and think Chicago avoids yet another week of WR touchdowns. I’m UNDER while both my co-hosts are thinking over.
Allen Robinson (15.5) 8 catches 75 yards
I know he is in line for probably 9-12 targets… And he could have a very nice game, but I don’t see that over without a TD… I think it’s very close and will most likely avoid this in my picks. Mark and Chris both think over in this and, obviously, think there will be more offense than I expect tonight. Again, if I’m forced to, I’d go UNDER, but I prefer other plays.
Scotty Miller (12) 5 Catches 70 yards
Lots of injuries will give Miller another solid run of targets but I think you need that TD to pay off and those are so hard to rely on. He has injury concerns and a setback in-game is disastrous for over bets. I hate to be a broken record but I am going UNDER again.
Anthony Miller (10) 3 catches 70 yards
This is asking a lot from a guy who is only averaging 4.25 targets a game and 2.33 receptions for 40 yards a game. Only a TD gets him close and he could still miss that 10 if he gets 1 catches for a TD and 8 yards…
I don’t like taking Kickers or IDP guys as the Kickers are completely unreliable week to week and I just don’t follow IDP players.
Cheers and good luck!
BONUS PICKS FOR MLB compliments of Lou Lander!
OVER – Morejon
UNDER – Greinke
OVER – Aroarena
OVER – LeMahieu
If you set up a new account tonight and make your first deposit, not only will you get that 25% bonus but if you make a minimum $10 bet on the 4 for 4 game (not the flex) and hit all 4 in tonights NFL Matchups, show us the screenshot and we will send you $25!