NFL Showdown October 1st
10/1 NFL Showdown
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Here we go!
First thing I see is a hugely undervalued QB for the Broncos. Brett Rypien is, at the moment, a 12.5 point projection. I really think that total is more of a floor so I’m instantly smashing the over! Both teams are bad… really on both sides of the ball. So as long as they aren’t comically bad, Rypien should go over.
Remember though that you can’t attach a teams QB with his WR or TE options so before you lock him in make sure you have a good read on the other positional players.
On the other side, I don’t expect Darnold to be any worse than he has been and it appears he gets his favorite target in Crowder back, so I feel fairly safe in his over at 14, though not as confident as I am in the Denver QB.
Crowder is currently not included in the options, but if he is, I have him projected at around 13 points, so use that how you see fit if he becomes an option.
If Crowder does go, I think you move the mark down on Berrios (9.5) and that also makes Hogan’s (6.5) floor literally zero, so I’m good with under on both IF Crowder plays. No Crowder in the lineup and I think Hogan is still a safe under and Barrios becomes a coin flip.
Herndon (9) has massively disappointed this year but the Broncos struggle in air defense. Crowder probably opens the middle of the field for him more and he always has a shot at Red Zone looks but I’d be shocked if he goes over. Pretty confident under either way.
For the Kickers, I think both teams struggle to score TDs and could easily see both going over their (7) but am more interested in the over on the Jets kicker at home if I’m even playing either.
Gordon (13.5) should…. should be in a smash spot. I have his projection sitting at 16ish so the current spot they have him at is an easy over for me.
Jeudy (11.5) and Fant (11) are pretty spot on. I favor the running game of the Broncos personally, so if I’m forced to pick I’m going 55% under on both but I’m probably looking elsewhere and playing the Denver QB on an over instead.
Tim Patrick (7) is a guy I like this week. And if not playing Rypien, I could be convinced on his over more than the other two receiving options.
For the IDP guys I have to admit I’m not much of a defense guy so I don’t usually predict those guys. Look up your favorite IDP projections and read up on the scoring method for your best educated guess!
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