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Monday Night NFL Showdown – October 26th

Let’s look at the Monday Night NFL showdown!

CHI Bears (45)

@

LA Rams (-6)

Don’t stress each individual player. Don’t make it that hard on yourself. Find your story on how the game will play out and apply that across the board. If you make sense of the game flow needed for the outcome you will believe will happen then all the players should neatly fall into line.

This is a great game to get some fun picks placed. The public views this Bears Offense as lacking and undersells how good the LA defense has actually been. The -6 in favor of the Rams seems out of place to me. I would venture this game should be closer than that and I’m not ruling out the ability of the Bears to win outright. I do lean to the under on the scoring prop so I will be crafting my picks around the low-scoring narrative.

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The Breakdown

Nick Foles (15.5) 200 2TD

The Rams have given up this much fantasy points to every QB this year except Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones. Foles is more than capable of pulling this out and even in a low-scoring game, he could also snipe a goal line TD as he is a large body that they do use in the running game in tight situations. I am OVER on Foles.

Jared Goff (18.2) 250 2TD

The Bears have held every single QB this year to under this. Including Stafford, Ryan, Brady… I can’t really come up with many scenarios that put him in any better spots than those other guys were in so I feel really good about this UNDER.

David Montgomery (14.9) 50 Yards & TD with 2 catch for 25 yards

The problem is, he just hasn’t scored… You have to take a leap of faith that he is due and go with it if you want the over here. He has 1 rushing and 1 receiving TD on the year. Positive regression has to be coming so I am on board with the OVER based on him getting a TD tonight.

Darrel Henderson Jr (12) 70 Yards and 2 catches 30 yards

We have a situation here that has shown him hitting these numbers exactly half of his games. There are 2 quality backs also in the backfield in Brown and Akers. He has shown that he deserves the touches but this game might force them to get creative offensively and utilize all 3 guys. If it was just him I would be all over this over, but because for no reason it could be a Malcolm Brown week or Cam could get 9 carries again, I have to go UNDER. Too many scenarios that could see under usage for me.

Allen Robinson (15.5) 7 catches 85

I am avoiding this spot personally. The catches and yardage are good medians for him but this Rams Defense has been good against the WR position. I don’t think he gets there tonight without the TD. Since I am going with Monty to get at least 1 I think I have to go UNDER.

Cooper Kupp (15) 7 catches 80 yards

Here is a case, again, that I am avoiding. This is a good line normally and he is always a threat to score. I think with this Defense he will either need to have double digit short catches or a breakaway TD to hit this. He has only done so twice this year so far and the Bears Defense is solid. I’m probably looking elsewhere tonight but if forced to choose I am on the UNDER

Jimmy Graham (8) 5 catches 30 yards

The Rams have been weakest against the TE and Jimmy has seen consistent usage for 4 straight weeks. I think this line is only just under his median scoring and I like this game script for the TE. OVER

Tyler Higbee (8) 3 catches 50 yards

Though the Bears also give up decent production to the TE we have an injury situation to be aware of. Higbee has a bum hand and is questionable tonight. I think he plays but Everett is physically more dominating and will see at least half the targets even when both are healthy. I’m a confident UNDER here.

Anthony Miller (7) 3 catches 40 yards.

This is a very interesting spot. I like that Robinson demands double teams most of the time. You only need Miller to catch a few balls and a TD guarantees that number. It’s close, but in a tight game I probably look for picks besides this one. But I barely favor the OVER.

Robert Woods (14.5) 4 catches 45 yards and a TD

I like Kupp more for how this game pans out. I think outside passes are going to get tough and the slot and RB dump-offs will be where most of the production comes from. I don’t like the Rams to score more than 17-20 points so I have to go UNDER here as well.

 

Apparently I have much less confidence in the LAR side of the ball and seems I am on the Bears +6…

 

As always, I don’t usually play kickers unless I have a good feeling. I usually lean UNDER on both in low total games and I don’t do IDP so if you want to play defensive players there is all kinds of great IDP info out there for you to find.

Good Luck!!!

-Jonny Danger

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