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Waiver Targets

Jonny Danger’s Waiver Targets

General Waiver Theory

Waiver wires are the key to Championships. Ok, strike that. Avoiding injuries is the key to Championships this year. As both are usually key you can’t just look at the top adds on Yahoo each week and put a waiver claim in. There is always more to the story, like is it a waiver priority list where after you pick a guy you move to the back of the priority list, or is it a free agent acquisition budget (FAAB). The former, you need to weigh your actual team needs with what’s on the wire and if that pick up is worth moving to the back of the line. The truth is you just don’t NEED every hot waiver pick up. Sometimes that ability to hold onto priority could be the biggest advantage when a true league winner becomes available (think Mostert and Drake last year). In the FAAB leagues you have a set budget, say $100, to work with on the year and you need to bid for the players blindly against your league mates. In these leagues, just like with waiver priority, you have to judge the actual value to your team for your dollars. If you have 3 solid starting RB’s and a handcuff or two, you don’t need to go all-in on Mike Davis or Dion Lewis. If on the other hand, you lost Barkley and Le’Veon Bell these last 2 weeks you need to fill those spots and maybe spend a big chunk to keep those roster spots filled.

So much theory depends on your roster construction and where the other team needs are in your league. Be conscious of who lost what players to injury or have studs coming up to a bye week. If someone with a higher wavier priority needs a starting RB really bad, they’ll probably take the player you want. Or they’ll outbid you in a FAAB league.

Please reach out to us on Facebook or hit me up on Twitter (@tipsypicksdfs) if you have questions. I’m happy to give you individual advice.


Post Week 9 Waivers

QB Fill-ins

Tua Tagovailoa – MIA

Hey, he is 2-0 as a starter and gets the Chargers at Home. I think it could be a high-scoring game and if you need a fill-in for a week he could see an increase in usage in his 3rd game as a starter.

Drew Lock – DEN

He had a heck of a game and will look to build on it in a great matchup down in Vegas. I like what I have seen out of the youngster and think he keeps the momentum going in week 10.

 

RB

JD McKissic – WAS

Detroit continues to get blown up by backs. This will probably be no different. Gibson is the best bet but if you’re desperate I think McKissic is in line for a solid 10-14 point performance.

Jordan Wilkins – IND

If he is still on the waivers I think he is worth a shot. He predictably did poorly against Baltimore but he has TEN twice and HOU twice with Green Bay and Las Vegas thrown in for good measure. There is no better schedule for RBs than the Colts to finish out the year.

 

NOT INTERESTED

  1. Gallman – NYG, not a good matchup against Philly

 

WR

Richie James – SF

I would hope this performance merits him to get another go as a starting WR, but you have to watch the returns of Deebo and Aiyuk. This was a career game, and unlikely to be repeated.

Tim Patrick/KJ Hamler – DEN

It seems this Broncos team is going to trust Drew Lock to throw the ball. Jeudy is the clear #1 but I could make a case for either of these guys to earn a roster spot. Up next is Vegas where the running game should open up more shots. I’m probably a bigger fan of Patrick than Hamler.

Nelson Agholor – LV

This dude has got it DONE 4 of his last 5 games. I believe he has proven himself as a clear option for Carr and has some choice matchups coming against Denver, Atlanta, and the Jets.

Jacoby Myers – NE

This kid is really making waves the last few weeks as the #1 target in New England. I’m sold. Lock him up!

Darnell Mooney – CHI

He didn’t do what I wanted him to do last week but he did see 11 targets and gets the Vikings next. Definite consideration for a fill in.

 

NOT INTERESTED

Marquez Valdez-Scantling: Don’t get drawn into chasing numbers. Yes 2 TDs but on 2 catches.

 

Streaming TE

Irv Smith- MIN

He has scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 matchups. He has a cake schedule coming up and has continued to be his teams #3 receiving threat.

Everett/Higbee – LAR

I’d take either one in a game against SEA where the passes should fly freely and often. I lean Everett personally.

 

Streaming DEF

NO hosting SF

MIA hosting LAC

MIN Hosting CHI

—————————————————-

Post Week 8 Waivers

The ever-important role of churning your bench in favor of upside or protecting holes in your lineup gets another layer of importance when you have to pay attention to the bye weeks.

There are two factors I like to watch when looking at the byes and that is the players I will be missing from my lineup of course, but also from those same teams, if you have bench space, who can I stash while no one is looking.

A huge fault of most players when evaluating the waiver wire is to simply sort by projected points for the upcoming week, or to only look at the points scored from the week that just played. You will be missing a bunch of information if that is all you are looking for. For one, there is a story behind those stats. Were last week’s numbers inflated by injury to a key player or a game script gone rogue? Are the projected numbers taking into account injuries to players in front of them or change in QB or coach? Bye week players for the following week can also be great targets for you since some team owners will drop guys on byes to clear room for players they might need for their current week, and if you have opponents that sort by next week’s projected points those players won’t even be on their list. You have to play a week or two ahead, especially if your needs are not immediate.

At this stage in the game I probably have a core team set with a solid list of bench players. I’m looking to stash guys that have big time upside if they get the opportunity. What’s the point of having a WR4 for a team sitting on your bench? Chances are if you need him there are just as viable alternatives sitting free on the FA list.

Here is where I am also looking to line up all my Bye Week players. Roll through that weekly lineup all the way through the next 4-5 weeks and see if you have any weak areas you need to fill. If you stay ahead a few weeks you won’t waste FAAB or priority on last minute fill ins.

QB Fill-ins

Cam Newton – NE

I think you will find that some people have bailed on holding Cam on their rosters. This week though he gets the Jets in a game he needs to prove that he is still a QB1 in the NFL. Load him up if you need him.

Drew Lock – DEN

Atlanta is giving up the most fantasy points to QBs still and Lock looks like he is heating up. He is undoubtedly available and you definitely can get enough points off him for this week. Lock him in.

Kirk Cousins – MIN

Detroit might completely sell out to try to slow down Dalvin Cook opening up a shot for Kirk to get it done in a fill-in capacity this week.

Jake Luton – JAX

Houston’s DBs are trash and James Robinson has to be accounted for. I think Luton has a chance to keep this job the rest of the way if he has a good showing. This is a play reserved only for desperation but there is a path to a good game here.

 

RB

Damien Harris – NE

It’s clear that Cam can’t do this on his own. Harris put up 16/102/1 last week and will look to build on that against the Jets this week. He might even be a flex play going forward so I am all-in on getting this guy on my roster.

Justin Jackson – LAC

If he got dropped during the last few weeks you may be in luck. He has always been the clearly most talented guy in that back field, maybe even over Ekeler. His 20 touches for 142 yards helped many a DFS lineup win money last week and is a guy on every one of my teams in seasonal already. Get him and go with it weekly as a RB2 upside play.

DeeJay Dallas – SEA

If he somehow made it through last week and you need a fill-in for week 9 go ahead and put a claim in. As long as Carson is out he has a pathway to touches.

JaMycal Hasty – SF

I told you to stash him last week and it looks like he gets the chance to be the lead back against the Pack Thursday night. That is a must start for me if you need a RB for a week.

Nyheim Hines – IND

He was my tipsy pick for RB last week and boy did that turn out well! Taylor disappointed and injuries to TY and others are giving him a chance to lead the team in receptions. Definitely a consideration for Flex positions moving forward but has a tough matchup against BAL incoming this week.

Zach Moss – BUF

I told you last week he was a guy to have. It’s probably too late now. I think the decline of Singletary is in motion. If he’s out there snag him up immediately.

NOT INTERESTED

  1. Ervin – GB, not against SF on the road.
  2. Gallman – NYG, not sure of the consistency available for him, plus he plays for the Giants.
  3. Perine – NYJ, not giving any jet not named Crowder the time of day on my roster.

 

WR

Randall Cobb – HOU

Rumors of Cooks getting traded are heating up. Take a step forward by getting Cobb before that news breaks. Being the clear #2 with Watson at QB is a good spot to be in.

Curtis Samuel – CAR

Even before his big week 8, Samuel has been quietly producing. I’m watching him with interest should he start to see more touches. They will be forced to throw the ball heavily the next couple weeks but the matchups aren’t great. More of a speculative add if he makes it through waivers than someone to spend FAAB or priority on.

Darnell Mooney – CHI

Mooney has TEN, MIN, DET, HOU, MIN in 5 of his next 6 matchups. His rapport with Foles is looking sharp. This is the kind of move that keeps you in contention when you have 3 WR and a Flex to fill through Byes and Injuries. Pick him up.

Marvin Hall – DET

If you are in a deep league with skank on the wire take a peek at the other Marvin in Detroit. Kenny is out so Hall is looking to step into the starting role and gets the Vikings porous secondary to cut his teeth on.

NOT INTERESTED

Keelan Cole – JAX, need to see how this new QB goes.

Mecole Hardman – KC, just too hard to pinpoint who gets the targets outside of Hill and Kelce.

 

Streaming TE week 9

Ross Dwelley – SF

You could do worse than an Offense that features the TE and doesn’t change their game script without key players. If you need him, he’s there but remember he plays Thursday.

Logan Thomas – WAS

I keep liking Thomas and I won’t stop that this week. He has scored in 2 straight games and lines up nicely against a beatable team in the Giants this week.

Darren Fells – HOU

He just keeps getting it done and continues to sit on the free agent list week after week. He’s maybe my favorite DFS start this week at TE so I am very good with him getting added to your team.

Mo Alie-Cox – IND

With TY possibly out Mo is looking like he should see time split out again as a WR. He’s been very serviceable when healthy and is a sneaky play this week against Baltimore.

 

Streaming DEF Week 8

TEN Hosting CHI

WAS Hosting NYG

ARI Hosting MIA

MIN Hosting DET

————————————–

Post Week 7 Waivers

The ever-important role of churning your bench in favor of upside or protecting holes in your lineup gets another layer of importance when you have to pay attention to the bye weeks.

There are two factors I like to watch when looking at the byes and that is the players I will be missing from my lineup of course, but also from those same teams, if you have bench space, who can I stash while no one is looking.

A huge fault of most players when evaluating the waiver wire is to simply sort by projected points for the upcoming week, or to only look at the points scored from the week that just played. You will be missing a bunch of information if that is all you are looking for. For one, there is a story behind those stats. Were last week’s numbers inflated by injury to a key player or a game script gone rogue? Are the projected numbers taking into account injuries to players in front of them or change in QB or coach? Bye week players for the following week can also be great targets for you since some team owners will drop guys on byes to clear room for players they might need for their current week, and if you have opponents that sort by next week’s projected points those players won’t even be on their list. You have to play a week or two ahead, especially if your needs are not immediate.

At this stage in the game I probably have a core team set with a solid list of bench players. I’m looking to stash guys that have big-time upside if they get the opportunity. What’s the point of having a WR4 for a team sitting on your bench? Chances are if you need him there are just as viable alternatives sitting free on the FA list. When other people are bailing on Zach Moss and Cam Akers, you want to be adding them in a stash move should they get the full chance.

Here is where I am also looking to line up all my Bye Week players. Roll through that weekly lineup all the way through the next 4-5 weeks and see if you have any weak areas you need to fill. If you stay ahead a few weeks you won’t waste FAAB or priority on last minute fill ins.

 

QB Fill-ins

Tua Tagovailoa – MIA

Give him a stash in a Dynasty, play him with confidence in a 2-QB or super-flex league. I’m not starting him or wasting FAAB or priority on him in standard re-draft leagues. STASH ONLY until we see what we have. His schedule isn’t great going forward.

Teddy Bridgewater – CAR

He’s playing Arizona. The floor against them might be 20 points. That’s all we need to say.

Derek Carr – LV

He’s always on the fill-in list and in another game where he should be able to tally up some yardage. Cleveland can give up numbers and their injuries are piling up. I like this game to go over it’s Vegas total.

Jimmy Garoppolo – SF

Might actually have to throw the ball against a dynamic opponent and down 3 running backs from the roster. It’s no secret SEA is struggling against the passing game and San Fran is desperately trying to remain relevant in a really really tough division.

 

RB

JaMycal Hasty – SF

System, System, System. It doesn’t matter who is back there, load him up. Hell, even throw the Full Back in there if you’re desperate. This kid has serious explosiveness. I want him, and even has some deep dynasty appeal. McKinnon will play this week but they always seem to get 2 guys involved.

Gus Edwards/JK Dobbins – BAL

Either guy could emerge here with an injured Ingram. I’m not super thrilled though to get a back on this team as the ground attack runs through Jackson almost exclusively. RBs are tough to come by though and if you guess right you could grab a few points when you need em most. I lean Dobbins as I think he is more versatile if Ingram misses time.

 

WR

Rashard Higgins – CLE

He already has basically been the best receiver in Cleveland the last 3 weeks. Outside of having a bye inweek 9 and Baltimore in week 14 the rest of the way seems like a positive matchup. I’m in like Flynn with Odell out for the year. Lock him in.

Nelson Agholor – LV

In his last 3 games he has had 11 catches on 15 targets for 218 yards and 3 TD’s. If you follow me you know I like Carr as a fill in QB most weeks and Nelson is turning into the #2 target behind Waller. If you have injuries or Bye weeks that need filling here is a solid choice.

Brandon Aiyuk – SF

This guy will be a top target for me in DFS this week against Seattle with Deebo most likely out. He has flashed some serious skill and with Mostert, Coleman, and Wilson out, maybe this team will actually be forced to throw the ball! I can’t wait for this game.

Corey Davis – TEN

I’m not sure why he is only owned in 28% of leagues. His worst scoring output in 4 healthy games is 12 points in a PPR. He is an easy WR3 with an offense that is really fun to watch and deserves to be on a roster in all 12 team leagues.

 

Streaming TE week 8

Richard Rodgers – PHI

As long as he is the lead TE in Philly he is a back-end TE1. Philly loves to throw to the TE and a matchup against Dallas is a great way to use him. LOAD UP!

Trey Burton IND

Coming off his highlight of the year, he is still the top TE target in another offense that loves to use them. The Lions have actually kept all TE’s in check this year but the WR talent on the Colts is very lacking and I like Trey to keep his momentum going. You should be able to find him on the wire after being on Bye last week.

Bryant/Njoku – CLE

Either one of these guys make a valid play against LV with OBJ and Hooper out. Take the one you like more and throw him in for a fill in.

Gerald Everett – LAR

Each week either he or Higbee gets the job done. With Higbee having a bum wrist I still like Everett as the favorite to get more looks.

 

Streaming DEF Week 8

This is a rough one to find much on the waiver… maybe one of these if you need them?

TEN going to CIN

DET hosting IND

 

Deep Stash Targets to Hold

Cam Akers- LAR

Zach Moss- BUF

Alshon Jeffery- PHI (if he plays this week against DAL load him up)

Tevin Coleman- SF

<<<NOT INTERESTED IN DEZ BRYANT>>>

————————————

Post Week 6 Waivers

Danger had something pop up last minute. We still wanted to get you some Waiver targets so Emrick here filling in. Forgive me there will only be slight blurbs on some of these guys.

Most of the picks aren’t for the faint of heart. If you’re looking for a league winner I’m not sure how many of those you’ll find. But if you need a spot start there are definitely a few guys that fit that description.

 

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert- If you need a QB to play this week Herbert might be your guy. Currently, only on 60% of rosters for ESPN leagues, he gets to face an abysmal Jacksonville pass defense this week.

Ryan Tannehill- Owned in only 66 percent of leagues, he has a tough matchup this week but he might be a store and stash. He’s played fantastic dating back to last year when he took over for Marcus Mariota.

Joe Burrow- The Rookie has a really tough schedule coming up. But if you can stomach that and make it a bit deeper in the season he’s got a few very fantasy-friendly games there. From Week 11 through 14 he faces The Redskins, Giants, Miami, and Dallas in consecutive weeks.

 

Running Backs

Boston Scott- Miles Sanders is out and that means it’s time to go back to the Boston Scott well. I know he burned many people earlier this year but that team is without almost anyone on the offensive side of the ball. If you’re in a pinch for a RB then Scott who currently finds himself on 11% of rosters might be your guy.

Jerrick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty- Take it for it what it’s worth but Hasty had the majority of the runs after Mostert went down this week. He’s certainly available and McKinnon 71% might not be.

J.D. McKissic- The Redskins seem to be against giving Gibson a full role in the offense instead opting for sharing the touches among all the backs. McKissic has the pass-catching upside for PPR leagues that at least makes him viable. Currently rostered in 33% of leagues. It’s Dallas week for the Redskins and that elevates everyone on the offense.

 

Wide Receiver

Travis Fulgham- Back to back games with above-average production and a team that’s missing even more of offensive options puts Fulgham into another great spot. Owned currently in 62% of leagues.

Tee Higgins- 58% owned at this point for ESPN leagues if he’s available and you need a WR this needs to be a heavy target for you this week. He’s had a huge share of the Air Yards for this offense and has looked immensely better than AJ Green.

Mike Williams- Going up against Jacksonville this week, it’s a great spot for Williams. He returned two weeks ago from injury and dominated NO with over 100 yards and two TD to boot. Keenan Allen should be back and that obviously takes away from some of his targets, but he’s without question someone that should be rostered in any 12 team league.

 

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert- With both Ertz and Goedert healthy this year, Dallas looked like the better of the two. Now with Ertz out for at least a month and Goedert eligible to come back this week he’d be another guy high on my target list. Only on 28% of rosters.

Logan Thomas- If you miss out on Goedert then Logan Thomas might be your guy. We’ve talked about him a lot on the DFS shows because he’s been a great value week in and week out. He finally found the end zone again this year last week and finds himself in a game against the Cowboys this week. He’s only on 10% of rosters so he should be available in your league.

———————————-

Post Week 5 Waivers

The ever-important role of churning your bench in favor of upside or protecting holes in your lineup gets another layer of importance when you have to pay attention to the bye weeks.

There are two factors I like to watch when looking at the byes and that is the players I will be missing from my lineup of course, but also from those same teams, if you have bench space, who can I stash while no one is looking. 

A huge fault of most players when evaluating the waiver wire is to simply sort by projected points for the upcoming week, or to only look at the points scored from the week that just played. You will be missing a bunch of information if that is all you are looking for. For one, there is a story behind those stats. Were last week’s numbers inflated by injury to a key player or a game script gone rogue? Are the projected numbers taking into account injuries to players in front of them or change in QB or coach? Bye week players for the following week can also be great targets for you since some team owners will drop guys on byes to clear room for players they might need for their current week, and if you have opponents that sort by next week’s projected points those players won’t even be on their list. You have to play a week or two ahead, especially if your needs are not immediate.

Let’s look ahead to week 6 Bye Week players that might be a help to you in week 7. 

First look at your team in week 7 and see who you need to replace. That would be players from Baltimore, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota. Do you already have players to replace those starters? Are you already set for players missing from week 6? While churning that bottom end of your bench is important, don’t drop players you need to cover byes just for speculation. 

All that being said let’s go over hot pickups of the week and how I feel about them. As always, subscribers have access to me on Twitter DM’s @TipsyPicksDFS or on Facebook DM’s with specific questions for your teams! 

QB

Justin Herbert LAC

I like what I have seen from the rookie. He moves well in the pocket and is really meshing with Keenan Allen. Their schedule isn’t exactly the most difficult for the rest of the year, so though I don’t think he is a QB1 most weeks he certainly will be useable for fill-ins or deep leagues to replace guys like Dak.

Ryan Tannehill TEN

Look at him now even. He is only owned in 47% of Yahoo leagues as their schedule has been up in the air due to terrible Covid plans. Pick him up. He will certainly be in the QB1 conversation almost every week. Frankly, I’m shocked to see him so little owned.

Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA

He can be frustrating to roster and watch, just look at his TD/INT week to week.

0/3 191 yds

2/0 328 yds

2/0 160 yds

0/2 315 yds

3/0 350 yds

As you see its boom or bust, but those booms have serious volume behind them. 

Derek Carr LV

In the last 4 weeks, he’s averaging around 300 yards 2.5 TD’s. His receivers are getting healthier and vibing with him. Remember his #1 and #2 WRs are rookies, there are bound to be growing pains. They have a defense that will give up points and an RB that has to be respected. These are all very good things for Carr. I thought Kyler Murray was going to be the breakout QB this year but Carr has a good schedule and with his bye week coming up in week 6 he will go completely overlooked in waiver claims. Scoop him up for free after waivers clear as a stash.

Andy Dalton DAL

This offense has been prolific, and some think the system is more important than the player and I tend to agree. How the Dallas offense will adapt to a change at QB will be something to watch. On the plus side, he has advantages in that his first full game will be Monday night, at home, and against an Arizona team that will be able to challenge the absolutely porous Cowboys defense and will get a chance to put up some points. Looking at Dalton’s career he only has 3 years that he has over 3500 yards passing and just has never been a dynamic QB. While I certainly would look at him and even jump on a waiver if I had Dak or a need for a QB, I don’t have him pegged for top 10 production every week. If anything this injury upgrades Zeke and as my boy Emrick noticed he appears to be looking early to Gallup.

RB

Alexander Mattison MIN

I have talked about Mattison at length as one of the most premium handcuffs to have. If you have Cook I am hoping you already have him and don’t need to worry. If you need a guy for next week and he’s available you gotta put a bid or claim in. The offense runs through the feature back and Mattison is a stud-in-waiting. 3 catches and 20 rushes for 136 yards.

Chase Edmonds ARI

I told everyone in my Tipsy Picks and waivers last week to pick up Chase Edmonds as Drake is losing the confidence of the coaching staff. I know Drake still out-touched him 2-1 but he was clearly more effective. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s given a chance in the next couple of weeks. Consider the next two opponents are Dallas and Seattle and know Edmonds will be involved no matter what.

Damien Harris NE

New England RBs are a tough subject to get right and I don’t usually try. I had a tipsy pick video telling everyone to take Rex in week 3 and then sobered up and deleted that section only to watch him score 3 times… With their game getting pushed Harris might go under the radar or even dropped to make room for another player in immediate need. PPR leagues will be a downgrade as he will not be used in the passing game with Burkhead and White in the mix. 17 carries for 100 yards against the Chiefs are not to be disregarded though. I’m willing to put a claim in especially with Cam due back.

WR

Chase Claypool PIT

Opportunity hadn’t been there for the talented rookie until Diontae Johnson went down and Claypool got thrust into a starting job. He went from targets of 2,3,4 to 11 targets and caught 7 for 110 yards and 3 TDs. Toss in a rushing TD and KABOOM!!! What a day. This could be the game that places him permanently into the role across from Juju. Jump on it now. This game won’t be repeated but he should be a WR2/3 every week moving forward meaning he should be in your lineup.

Travis Fulgham PHI

Seems like a slam dunk on a team that has struggled to find a top target. I’m not sold though. Ward has been pretty good, Jackson is coming back, Jeffery is coming back. These aren’t great things for him, so I am a pass this week with Baltimore coming to town. However if I’m wrong he has week 7 against the Giants and Week 8 against the Cowboys. I’d give it a week though.

Damiere Byrd NE

Production usually lags behind opportunity. If a guy has the opportunity week after week you can usually count on the production coming. He just missed a TD shot last week and with the Covid postponement he might just be getting overlooked. He’s had over 7 targets a game on average over the last 2 weeks including double digit targets in his last game and averaging 92% of snaps on the field. I like him.

Streaming TE Week 6

Logan Thomas WAS

Averaging 6 targets a game but converting less than 50% of them. Yikes… but he gets the Giants and Cowboys next in games they might be able to put up a fight. 

Trey Burton IND

Doyle 0 catches. Alie-Cox 0 catches. Trey 6 targets for 5 catches. I think the tide has turned according to the last 2 weeks, but I’m avoiding the TE by committee spot unless absolutely forced to… Which you might be with Bye, Injuries, and Covid situations.

Eric Ebron PIT

He probably is on a roster in your league but he is always viable as a fill-in. I see him only 50% owned in Yahoo leagues still and Cleveland is very susceptible to TE points.

Jimmy Graham CHI

Quietly averaging just over 5 targets a game Jimmy is proving he still has a bit in the tank. I’m good with him against the Panthers in week 6.

Streaming DEF Week 6

Chargers hosting the Jets

Giants hosting the Washington Football Team

Washington @ the Giants

Rams @ 49ers

—————————-

Week 3

Injuries are going to define this season even more than anticipated. Possible games influenced by Covid might throw another wrinkle into the mix. So let’s stay ahead of the game.

Injury Adjustments

Julio Jones – Missed another game and might miss another still. Good news is he has until Monday night to be ready. Bad news is anyone you would start instead probably played already. With the news of Gage most likely out with a  concussion for week 4, if you just want to plug in another WR from this pass-happy offense you could look at Olamide Zaccheaus who saw 6 targets last week or Brandon Powell if someone beats you to OZ. You could get either after the wire closes.

Davante Adams – Missed week 3 and still TBD for week 4. Monitor this closely as when he’s in he gets the lion’s share of the targets in GB. If you are unlucky like me and took Julio and Adams back to back on the wheel then you are really bummed out the last 2 weeks. Chances are that Lazard and MVS are both on a roster but Yahoo is reporting only 50% ownership on Lazard and 42% on MVS. I really only like Lazard as a waiver wire target as it’s a good matchup against the Falcons and his upside largely stays the same if Adams plays.

Michael Thomas – Most likely misses another week and Tre’Quan Smith has been the most targeted receiver in his absence. If you absolutely need a guy to fill a starting slot you might look his way but even at the most targets he is simply an inefficient pass catcher and I’m not really interested. Sanders is the better option but he is owned in a majority of leagues.

A.J. Brown – Assuming he misses another week you can look at Adam Humphries as he has seen 7 targets in each of the last 2 games but has done very little with them. He’s only on my list in emergency situations.

Chris Godwin – Looking like there will be a multiple-week absence. Scotty Miller is the obvious guy to gain snaps in his absence. He has an injury status question of his own but with Godwin and Watson likely out he and OJ Howard should be the main beneficiaries.

Diontae Johnson – Will most likely miss week 4 in concussion protocol. James Washington gets immediately bumped in value if he sits.

Chris Carson – At the moment he is looking to miss at least 1 week, but keep an eye on the situation, he might just tough it out. I’m not excited about Hyde as I think they might see what they have in Travis Homer instead, as Hyde has never factored in the passing game in his career.

Hottest Pick Ups

Allen Lazard – If he is there he is worth a mid-to-late value waiver priority pick and a 20%-ish FAAB bid as he is proving to be on the same page with Rodgers.

Jimmy Graham – Foles seems to be targeting TE’s more than Mitch so if you are desperate or like to stream guys you could give Jim a look. I think last week was his top performance of the year and the Colts defense has been good against the TE. I’m not using a waiver claim or bid money on him but if he makes it through waivers and you have need at TE, you could argue a case for him.

Mo Alie-Cox – With Paris Campbell out and Pittman out and Mo having shown some genuine pass-catching talent, you just might see more 2 tight end sets with both he and Doyle running routes or even chances for both to be in with one set up outside. Again, not a guy I want to give up waiver priority or FAAB money for, but I would definitely add him if he clears waivers and you are streaming TE’s or need to replace an injured spot.

Brandon Aiyuk – With the injuries mounting in SF the versatile and very talented Brandon Aiyuk will get a bunch of play in the SF offense. Mckinnon getting beat up might open more designed run plays for him and he should see a target increase with Deebo still out and now Reed looking to miss time as well. I’m ok with him in deep leagues as a late priority add but would imagine he will skate through most waivers out there and you can get him for free.

Justin Jefferson – Might be just what the Vikings needed to get that offense going. If he can keep showing the skills he flashed Sunday he will take some pressure off Thielen and Cooks to carry the team. I’m definitely ok using priority here as the offense will put up points and the terrible defense will keep them needing to push the pace.

Carlos Hyde – I’m of the mind that even if Carson misses a week there will only be a slight uptick in usage for Hyde. Seattle passes in the redzone and does it well. I prefer letting someone else waste priority and budget on him and then adding Travis Homer for free as a flyer.

Rex Burkhead – He was a part of my original Tipsy Picks before I trimmed them for length… oops… 3 TD’s later and it seems NE might actually use him regularly as long as White is away from the team. I’ve heard little in regards to White returning so go ahead and fire him up again as the Patriots might have to get creative against a seemingly unstoppable Chiefs team. It’s a risk though, as White’s return would squash a majority of his value.

Tee Higgins – Probably played the game of his year already so I’m not really interested. If you need a flyer and think he continues to see 7+ targets, wait for waivers to clear. He has Green, Boyd, and Mixon likely ahead of him in targets.

Randall Cobb – Don’t be fooled by his very efficient game last week. Unless Fuller gets injured I’m just not that interested. He only saw 14% of targets; that isn’t enough to make me think a repeat performance is likely. HOWEVER, they do face the Vikings porous secondary next week in a game they will want to win in big fashion. I wouldn’t waste priority but I can’t blame you for taking a matchup dependent shot.

Jeff Wilson – You already have him if you listened to me last week, and got him for free! Get on those friends, listen to them Tipsy Picks, not just for DFS picks but tips on Free pick-ups of guys that might be next week’s waiver wire find! If Mostert misses again and McKinnon is still bruised up he is a Flex play in all 12-team leagues. I’m in on a waiver claim and if you are a Mostert owner, go ahead and give a 15-20% FAAB bid on him to be an effective handcuff, as McKinnon simply isn’t built to take a large chunk of touches.

Nick Foles – I’m not spending waiver currency on him but he looks like a good fit for the Chicago Offense and will be a fine filler for Bye Weeks or streaming with the right matchups.

NOT INTERESTED LIST

Cedric Wilson – Keep a watch in case Cooper, Gallop or Lamb get hurt only.

Greg Ward – Unless Jackson and Jeffrey and Goedert (out for a couple weeks at least probably) keep getting hurt.

Tee Higgins – Probably his best game of the year.

Andy Isabella – Perfect game script and injury situation to those around him.

Tyler Kroft – Not sustainable usage.

Braxton Berrios – He’s a Jet.

Streaming QB’s Week 4

Jared Goff at home vs NYG – Looked Good with a capital G last week, NYG are vulnerable.

Joe Burrow at home vs JAX – averaging 47 attempts a game and will run on the GL.

Kirk Cousins @ HOU – His defense isn’t good enough for ball control. Needs to air it out!

Baker Mayfield @ DAL – Cowboys giving up 370 yards a game through the air…

Ryan Fitzpatrick at home vs SEA – Will have to be in chuck-it mode all game.

Streaming DEF Week 4

Rams at home vs NYG – Giants are a mess…

Broncos @ NYJ – Ok all NY teams are a mess…

Sorry, it’s a short list, the best matchups are likely owned already.

-Jonny Danger

Tweet at me or find me on Facebook to ask your waiver questions!

https://twitter.com/TipsyPicksDFS

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Week 2

The vast amount of injuries in the last two weeks will have most teams needing to fill an empty roster spot.  But not all Free Agents are created equal. Not all rosters need the hottest guy on the wire. Narrowing down your specific needs and valuing that against moving down in Waiver priority or using FAAB budget is extremely important.

Please don’t just throw a claim out for anyone.  Priority or budget is the key to crushing a league when a game changer becomes available. Though there are juicy adds available this week, I only really see 1 potential league winner out there, and that depends on a bunch of “ifs”.

Let’s go through a few teams that had a major injury or possible depth chart change that we can take advantage of.

New York Giants

Barkley’s loss is catastrophic… but there is a silver lining. Devonta Freeman is poised to sign as soon as tonight possibly. You are reading this now, so that means hopefully you also listened to me when I said before Week 1 to take a last roster spot flyer on him, right? Ok ok, so you had other Mr. Irrelevants in mind and passed because he didn’t have a team. Sure, but as we got to the last few days before the season started and I told you it wasn’t about what he had left in the tank it was about contract money and if he signed after the season started that the team wouldn’t have to guarantee his contract, and told you to take him while he was free and you did that, right? You had some fliers on some guys that might become handcuffs that you wanted to see play week 1, no problem, but before week 2 when I made the SECOND video begging you to pick him up for free you did, right? So no worries here, you already have a guy that could possibly be a front-end RB2 the rest of the way for nothing. Phew, that’s good news. In case you are new to us and didn’t hear all of those pleas, now is the time to bid almost all your FAAB and hope you have that #1 waiver-wire priority. Full force on a team that could feature him with 25 touches a game. If he’s healthy and maintains 80% of his prime talent he could be huge.

If you are in deeper leagues I like Gallman more than Lewis to benefit from Barkley’s absence. Dion will certainly get a few more touches but he is not an every-down back and Gallman has had a few successful games in relief in the past. I doubt Freeman would be ready for a full workload in his first week anyway.

Carolina Panthers

CMC will likely miss a month. Mike Davis did do ok in relief and impressed with catching 8 of 8 targets, but I’m not sold on him getting the full bulk the entire time. If you have immediate needs at RB in your starting lineup I think he has to be an option, but if you have a roster spot to speculate on, wait for after waivers and take a flyer on Trenton Cannon, especially if CMC misses more time than expected.

San Francisco 49ers

Ooof, this team is jinxed… Deebo, Jimmy, Mostert, Kittle, Coleman… The bright spot here is Shanahan prides himself on the system over individual players.  Reed certainly knocked it out in relief of Kittle and it seems every RB to touch the ball in SF is productive.  For this reason, McKinnon might be my favorite pick up of the week for immediate impact. Trust the system. Keep Jeff Wilson Jr in your sights as a handcuff for the oft-injured McKinnon. If Jimmy Grapes doesn’t go, look for me to rock the ultra-cheap Mullens, Reed, McKinnon combo in DFS.

LA Rams

Malcolm Brown has a fractured finger but may play. Cam Akers has a rib injury but may play.  Chances are Henderson is owned but if not, he’s in my top 5 pickups this week in an offense that likes to throw to the RB position.

Jacksonville Jags

This offense has been surprisingly effective. To the point that I’m almost ready to sign off on Minshew as your sole fantasy QB, almost. He and Keelan Cole have a really nice connection that I am ready to be a part of. If you need WR depth consider and add, though you should be able to wait for waivers to clear to pick him up.

Atlanta Falcons

The surprise WR of the year might just be Russell Gage. He’s going to be up and down as game flow dictates and will be infinitely valuable if Julio struggles to stay healthy. The Falcons are running 63% passing plays so far this season in big scoring matchups and they will be reluctant to run Gurley into the ground after they paid the man with no cartilage in his knee… Depth play if you have Julio and flyer play if you need a guy for fill-in weeks come byes.

LA Chargers

I feel like a record on repeat. I said Joshua Kelley impressed coaches and could take the lead back role before the season started. I said grab this guy because he’s going to vulture TDs and he did week 1. I then said get him, because the Chargers apparently forgot how to use Ekeler. Now week 2 we saw him take 23 carries and 2 catches for over 100 yards combined. He is still only 40% owned and I don’t know why he’s not already on your roster.

Watch for Trades (could benefit from new team)

Kerryon Johnson RB, DET (Carolina?)

Gus Edwards RB, BAL

Streaming QBs Week 3

  • Gardner Minshew, Beatable opponent in an offense that has let Minshew take some shots.
  • Nick Mullens, If Grapes can’t go, you could do worse than Mullins in a creative offense against a NYG team that can be thrown on and they stayed in NY after playing the Jets last week so travel lag shouldn’t be an issue.

Streaming TEs Week 3

  • Jordan Reed, No Kittle, no problem. Lock him in if George can’t go.
  • Mo Alie-Cox, over 100 yards in relief of Doyle last week. Watch Doyle’s status.
  • Tyler Eiffert, Loving this JAX matchup against Miami.
  • Logan Thomas, Cleveland struggles against the TE position.

Streaming DEF Week 3

  • Cleveland Browns, I like them more at home, and still not convinced Washington is that good. Haskins isn’t that good and their whole team is so young mistakes are going to be made.
  • LA Chargers, No CMC and on the road means I am fading Carolina offense. For the most part they kept KC in check so I don’t fear Teddy and crew this week.
  • Jacksonville Jags, at home against a QB that is as likely to thrown 3 INT as he is 3 TDs and no running game to speak of. Sign me up.

NO INTEREST LIST

Miles Gaskins – RB MIA

Dion Lewis – RB NYG

Justin Herbert – QB LAC

Wayne Gallman – RB NYG

Chase Claypool – WR PIT

Michael Pittman – WR IND (at least not yet. Love the talent, but let’s wait and see.)

Week 1

Top RB Waiver Picks after Week 1

Benny Snell Jr, only owned in (18%) of Yahoo leagues! If you are a Connor owner, hit this hard. I’m on a 30% budget bid on him, though that may not be enough. But if you listened to me last week, you already have him!

Malcolm Brown, (28%) another post-draft suggestion by me! Though Akers was clearly the starter and led almost every drive’s early phases, Brown took complete control over short-yardage, red-zone, and goal-line carries at a clip of 50% share of the carries. In on 60% of snaps to Cam Akers 33%.

Nyheim Hines, (21%) Surprise usage in week 1. Mack is out for the year, Taylor will be the lead back but I still expect Hines to get similar work in passing games and change of pace. Definitely worth a flyer. In on 53% of snaps to Taylors 35%.

Joshua Kelley, (13%) earned the #2 role with excellent short-yardage and goal-line work. He is going to be pesky for the Ekeler owners all year… Definitely a risk of TD vulture every week. And could possibly develop into that lead back as the Chargers inexplicably only targeted Ekeler ONE TIME!!!!!

Handcuff Specials: Alexander Mattison, Chase Edmonds

Stay Ahead of the pack: Corey Clement, watch the injury news with Sanders and Scott. Devontae Booker needs to be watched and OWNED if you have Josh Jacobs.

NOT INTERESTED LIST – Adrian Peterson (113 total Yards but only 31% snaps), Peyton Barber (17/29/2  1.7 yards per carry) Miles Gaskin (led Miami snaps)

Top WR Waiver Picks after Week 1

Robby Anderson, (32%) 8 Targets that he turned in a 6/115/1 line. Teddy will use Robby for his possession skills and as an underneath guy while waiting for that big shot downfield. Though targets are similar with he and Curtis Samuel, Anderson saw more snaps and is the higher floor player.

Corey Davis, (5%) saw equal snaps as AJ Brown and will be the recipient of the lesser talented coverage back most weeks. Disappointment is an understatement but maybe 4th years a charm? Temper expectations in a heavy running offense that will feature AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith in more targeted roles.

Russel Gage, (2%) Not sure if I want him stand alone, but if you have Jones or Ridley I would suggest you roster him in a true gunslinger offense that saw him in on 70% of snaps as the #3 WR. Hayden Hurst may get more involved and take some targets away but all 3 top WR for Atlanta got 12 targets.

Laviska Shenault, (12%) with a depleted RB corp and beating out Dede for the slot spot, Shenault could be of Flex value right away with designed run plays in the mix, and is even more interesting if he pecks away at Keelan Cole’s targets. On a team that is  projected to be playing from behind most of the season, I don’t mind having this piece.

Paris Campbell, (23%) a DFS darling last week but his speed will keep him involved with Phillip Rivers forcing the ball downfield. TY will take main coverage often and Paris should continue to take even splits in targets and snaps. I like him as much or more than TY given TY’s injury history.

Watch List or Secondary depth adds if you’re in a deep bench league: Jalen Raegor/James Washington/Preston Williams

NOT INTERESTED LIST – Marquez Valdez-Scantling (too streaky, only saw 54% of snaps), Scotty Miller (Evans will be healthy, OJ Howard will stay involved), Quintez Cephus, meh.

Top TE Waiver Picks after Week 1

Dallas Goedert, (56%) He’s so hard to start but if you are going streaming he’s bound to have big weeks like this sprinkled in with complete duds. Both Ertz and he saw 80% snap share as they often run double TE.

OJ Howard, (18%) Last Tuesday I drafted him in a league and mentioned I thought he had a chance to be the #1 in TB. Thursday I doubled down on that and Sunday I mentioned him as a value play in DFS. 6 Targets and a TD confirms my feelings that the extremely physically gifted TE should be the #1 over Gronk. We will see if their coaching staff agrees. Though Gronk out-snapped him 77% to 54%, he doubled Gronk’s Targets.

Harrison Bryant, (0%) Njoku hit the IR so here is a starting TE completely unowned. Don’t take the waiver on him. Let him hit FA and get him for nothing.

Other guys to snag for free after waivers: Logan Thomas (WSH) with a good matchup against ARI, Greg Olsen (SEA), Jimmy Graham (CHI) got 7 targets from an erratic QB but a nice matchup against Giants coming.

Not interested: Ebron, Uzomah, Atkins

Top Streaming QB for Week 2

Gardner Minshew II, (26%) They seem more interested in the short passing game rather than a running game approach. His numbers will rarely be gaudy, but they will mostly play from behind and he is a viable available streamer most weeks.

Jimmy Garoppolo, (51%) Jets were just torn apart by the Buffalo passing game and SF could have the same success. As I have him in 3 seasonal leagues still, you know I’m a believer.

Tyrod Taylor, (8%) will be forced to throw and then throw and probably also throw against the visiting Chiefs.

Teddy Bridgewater, (22%) this guy might quietly be better than who you have starting if you have guys like Burrow, Rivers, maybe even Brady or Newton. Give him a go in Tampa if you need him.

Top Streaming DEF Week 2

Arizona, (4%) vs Washington. Washington is not that good. A good gameplan and fantastic execution helped them upset Philly. I expect the Cardinals to roll.

Cleveland, (9%) vs Cin. A bounce back after a drubbing by Baltimore is likely. This squad is not as bad as they looked in week 1.

Seattle, (30%) at home against NE. White got banged up and Cam can’t just do it all anymore. I expect SEA to frustrate him and dominate the Patriots who travel the furthest for a game this week.